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Baseball America will unveil their Top 100 Prospects list in just about 11 minutes on their website (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/). Two Twins will make the list. Based on previous Top Prospect lists, I think we can assume that Miguel Sano will be one, but who will be the second? In other lists, we have seen Eddie Rosario, Joe Benson, Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks as the Twins #2 prospect.
Miguel Sano at #18. Joe Benson at #99, up one spot from last year.
It is worth mentioning that BA is the only National publication (or virtual publication) that has Benson ranked above Rosiario in their Top-x Twins' prospects list. Usually he is 5th behind Rosario, Arcia and Hicks. Interesting to think how this will play out...
They have Sano's ETA at 2014. Really, without Sano, the Twins' prospect outlook is pretty bleak. And remember that Hicks was on a lot of these lists the past few years, and his stock is plummeting until he figures something out. I think the Twins are actually overrated by the prospect lists because they still overripen some of these guys (Benson, Parmalee), even though most 99-loss teams would have given these guys a much more significant look. Therefore, we have guys in the minors who are more likely than not to be just average major leaguers, but hope is reserved until we actually see them get a shot.
One thing here that should be particularly alarming is: "Where are the Twins' pitchers?". I think the talent evaluators have caught onto the fact that you really can't "scout" for the next Greg Maddux or Jamie Moyer. Heck, you can't even "scout" for a Brad Radke, really, because the vast majority of starters who don't strike guys out eventually run out of luck, and then they're just getting hit.
I suppose Kyle Gibson was an attempt at a power arm, and he'd be on this list if he hadn't gotten hurt. Other than that, it's a good thing we play in a pitcher-friendly park...
I had that same thought. This list seems to be pretty heavy on guys who are very nearly big-league ready. Sano's an obvious exception to that rule, but he's clearly our best prospect. BA is favoring guys like Benson over Arcia and Hicks, but I think Hicks is a good example of why that can be a good approach. If they haven't shown anything yet as a professional baseball player, i's tough to put them in these ranks.Quote:
Originally Posted by thrylos98
I thought it was strange when I saw that Joe Benson did not even make the Top 20 list of Eastern League players when Baseball America put out that list last fall.
Yes. That was strange and really does not look consistent, unless there are more than 20 EL guys ranked above 99 in their top prospect list... I bet that different people made those lists, and we all know how that goes :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Seth Stohs
Obviously, guys like Hicks and Gibson can get back on the list. Rosario and Arcia probably have to show a bit more at higher levels and/or stay healthy first. I thought Hendriks had a shot to make the lest. He's not overpowering but he has solid numbers and was one of the youngest pitchers in the EL last year.
In any event, our farm is probably somewhere in the top 15-20 range but it could shoot up pretty fast. We have a lot of picks this year, hopefully some of our guys (Hicks, Wimmers) bounce back and guys like Arcia, Salcedo, Michael and Rosario develop.
Little mentioned fact: In exactly the same plate appearances, Rosario outperformed Sano in E-town last season. He is one year older (19 vs 18) but he has shown more on the field than Sano did so far.Quote:
Originally Posted by gunnarthor
Right, but at that level tools win out over production, which is why Sano is so high and Rosario isn't ranked. If scouts were as confident in Rosario he'd be ranked. Some are - KLaw Goldstein and Sickels all had him in their top 100. I think Rosario's power is a bit of a mirage but he should be a good avg/on base guy as he moves up and (hopefully) sticks at 2nd. If he can stay there, even with the power drop, he'll be on this list next year.Quote:
Originally Posted by thrylos98
Ya, Rosario had a better avg. and hit more HR's than Sano did, but Rosario's power is line-drive gap-to-gap-esque which played up on Appalachian League fields. Lots of stories of Rosario's HR's just clearing fences, whereas many of Sano's were no-doubters (excluding his 1 inside-the-parker). As gunnarthor says, it's about the Tools at this point, and I don't think anybody would rank Rosario's power as greater than Sano's.
go twins go all the way
This years BA Prospect Handbook has a nice new feature that probably sheds some light on Benson ranking over Rosorio, Arcia, etc. They've got a grade for each player's projected ceiling followed by the level of risk that they fail to reach that grade. When you read the summary at the beginning of the book it's pretty clear that BA favors more advanced prospects over rookie league through class a prospects.