Short season rosters?

I am wondering where in the hell everyone from EST and whatever relatively quick draft signees are going to go when things start for the GCL Twins (June 18) and Elizabethon (June 19).


EXTENDED SPRING TRAINING ROSTER

Pitchers: Ricardo Arevalo, Tim Atherton*, Hudson Boyd, Josh Burris, Hung Yi Chen, Steven Evans, Dallas Gallant (missed last year with Tommy John surgery), Tyler Herr, Trent Higginbotham, David Hurlbut*, Garrett Jewell, Cole Johnson, Tyler Jones*, Corey Kimes, Brett Lee, Kuo Hua Lo, Austin Malinowski, Angel Mata, Chris Mazza, Josue Montanez, Luis Nunez, Gerardo Ramirez, Hein Robb, Gonzalo Sanudo, Tobias Streich (moved to Pitcher from Catcher)
Catchers: Jonathan Arias, Kelly Cross, Matt Parker, Michael Quesada, Jacob Younis
Infielders: Josh Hendricks, Kennys Vargas, Nick Lockwood, Candido Pimentel, Julio Torres, Stephen Wickens, Niko Goodrum, Aderling Mejia, Javier Pimentel, Jorge Polanco, Wander Guillen, Travis Harrison
Outfielders: Romy Jimenez, Max Kepler, Drew Leachman*, Kelvin Mention, Kelvin Ortiz, Dereck Rodriguez

* denotes players already with Beloit (they may be a couple more I am forgetting).

Draft picks so far:

#15 (440) - Jarret Leverett - LHP - COL - Georgia Southern
#14 (410) - Jake Proctor - CF - COL - Cincinnati
#13 (380) - Erich Knab - RHP - HS - South Carolina
#12 (350) - Alex Muren - RHP - COL - Cal St. Northridge
#11 (340) - Taylor Rogers - LHP - COL - Kentucky
#10 (310) - Doug (DJ) Baxendale - RHP - COL - Arkansas-Fayetteville
#9 (280) - LJ Mazzilli - 2B - COL - U Connecticut (Lee Mazzilli's son)
#8 (250) - Christian Powell - COL - RHP - College of Charleston
#7 (220) - Jorge Fernandez - C - HS - Puerto Rico
#6 (190) - Andre Martinez - LHP - HS - Florida
#5 (160) - Tyler Duffey - RHP - COL - Rice U
#4 (130) - Zach Jones - RHP - COL - San Jose State
#3 (97) - Adam Walker - RF - COL - Jacksonville U
#2 (72) - JT Chargois - RHP - COL - Rice U
#2 (63) - Mason Melotakis - LHP - COL - Northwestern State (LA)
#1S (42) - Luke Bard - RHP - COL - Georgia Tech
#1S (32) - Jose Orlando Berrios - RHP - HS - Puerto Rico#
#1 (2) - Byron Buxton - OF - HS - Georgia

That's something like 34 pitchers and 13 infielders. Are there going to be a bunch of cuts? And who goes where?

I did not follow the teams. The statistics from the 2011 rosters shows combined they used 46 pitchers. A couple were rehab starts. Combined it looks like they used about 35 position players. The players not promoted to an "A" level should have been cut over the winter not this spring. I don't recall any player repeating low level ball being an impact player at the major league level. I guess you have to fill a roster with somebody.

Add about 15-20 players from this draft class and you got a jam. Part of the issue is that the signing deadline moved up a month (7/13 this year) so a lot of the late signees would be able to play pro ball this season unlike past seasons. I would not be surprised to see teams field multiple GCL teams next season (like some do with the DSL now.)

I do think that there will be a few cuts in New Britain and Rochester, and promotions (and a few trades that would probably work the other way) but I don't think that these would be quite enough to accommodate all players. Expect a lot of intersquad games and games with Boston and the Pirates in EST

How many of these players are going to sign? I know it looked like we drafted with an eye towards signability, but realistically how many of these top 18 picks will join the organization?


Will the change in signing period and slot amounts (signing salary cap) have much affect on who and how quickly we sign players? This is really looking like the changes will have far reaching affects for both the organization and the players. It will be interesting to see how our signing percentage this year will differ from the past few years. Then again, the changes in our signing percentage this year may change more due to the number and quality of our picks rather than the changes in the signing process.

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Originally Posted by thrylos98

Add about 15-20 players from this draft class and you got a jam. Part of the issue is that the signing deadline moved up a month (7/13 this year) so a lot of the late signees would be able to play pro ball this season unlike past seasons. I would not be surprised to see teams field multiple GCL teams next season (like some do with the DSL now.)

I do think that there will be a few cuts in New Britain and Rochester, and promotions (and a few trades that would probably work the other way) but I don't think that these would be quite enough to accommodate all players. Expect a lot of intersquad games and games with Boston and the Pirates in EST

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Can teams just add GCL teams!? I mean, if everyone did it I understand, but could an organization really just add another whole team? Reminds me of high school teams playing each other a few years after one of the districts adds a second middle school (and thus another team with more players getting better).

I forgot about the signing deadline being moved up. I still don't understand why some wait until the end to sign. I mean maybe it is a few hundred thousand bucks they are haggling over (with the big signees) . . . but losing out on 100+ at bats or 30+ innings or whatever seems more of an unsound economic decision by 18-22-year-old players (Michael, Harrison, Boyd . . . ),

Finally, I am obviously all about some promotions and sending oldster non-prospects, non performers packing. I am interested in seeing how that plays out over the next two weeks.

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Originally Posted by minn55441

How many of these players are going to sign? I know it looked like we drafted with an eye towards signability, but realistically how many of these top 18 picks will join the organization?


Will the change in signing period and slot amounts (signing salary cap) have much affect on who and how quickly we sign players? This is really looking like the changes will have far reaching affects for both the organization and the players. It will be interesting to see how our signing percentage this year will differ from the past few years. Then again, the changes in our signing percentage this year may change more due to the number and quality of our picks rather than the changes in the signing process.

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The top 16 signed last year and 20 out of the top 21 signed. Today's picks are much more doubtful. That said, I think last year was a bit unusually high in the number of people actually signing. I would expect a pretty similar result this year as last now with the rule changes.

Nick Lockwood was released. Other than that, it's likely several more of those EST guys will be released. 25 or so will go to E-Town and 35 or so will be with the GCL team.

The Twins have done a great job in recent years signing their picks from the top ten rounds, and really to about 15. So yes, maybe 18-20 new players will be coming in. Possibly a couple will start in Beloit. But mostly the college guys will go to ET and the high school guys to GCL.

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Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

Nick Lockwood was released. Other than that, it's likely several more of those EST guys will be released. 25 or so will go to E-Town and 35 or so will be with the GCL team.

The Twins have done a great job in recent years signing their picks from the top ten rounds, and really to about 15. So yes, maybe 18-20 new players will be coming in. Possibly a couple will start in Beloit. But mostly the college guys will go to ET and the high school guys to GCL.

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I wasn't thinking about the fact that 35 or so go to the GCL. That actually works out to about right.

That's strange about Lockwood. I guess they have so many infielders from low-A down.

On a side note: not that Lockwood is that phenomenal or anything, but he is the kind of guy that I look toward signing as opposed to signing the Shawn Roofs of the world. Not that a Lockwood-esque player goes to AA, but I would prefer to sign younger guys and put in the lower levels and promote (promoting either prospects or guys who are getting playing time instead of top prospects, but who could get a jump-start by moving up themselves). I know that the upper levels need some veterans, but I would prefer adding youth as opposed to Joe Thurston and co. (and Thyrlos probably concurs).

I mean there have to be a few guys cut at this level (not making it past short season) that could produce if given the chance. Just seems better to plant as many seeds as possible (young guys) and not have so many weeds (Clete Thomas, Joe Thurston, Shawn Roof, etc.) (I don't mean that to be dehumanizing, but I like the analogy).

How many of these picks are likely to sign? I would have to think that some of the HS players drafted in some of the later rounds might not be offered contracts/choose to go to college instead. I would expect the top 8-10 picks will probably sign though.

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Originally Posted by James

How many of these picks are likely to sign? I would have to think that some of the HS players drafted in some of the later rounds might not be offered contracts/choose to go to college instead. I would expect the top 8-10 picks will probably sign though.

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Might be hard to tell this year. I would expect 20. Might be 25+ though.

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Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

Nick Lockwood was released. .

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Darn... Slowly the 2009 Draft is starting to look like a nightmare; from the first 15 picks only 5 are in the organization 3 seasons afterwards. And from those, one is just being converted from a C to a P.

Last year almost immeadiatley after signing Grimes and Bryant were both sent to Beloit, with Carter and boer right behind.

They manage to figure it out quite well. Some minor league free agents will be cut and about 3-4 players will probably move up in each league. You can carry more at the GCL level, just don't activate them. Then they carryover to the fall instructional league and either get cut or put into next years plans. You can pretty much assume that any high schoolers will probably remain behind.

Keep in mind that Rookie league rosters are larger than full-season rosters. Teams can have 35 players on the active list, although only 30 can be dressed for any one game. That goes for both Elizabethton and GCL.

Seth, do you think you could blog about potential promotions coming in the next few week? Thanks.

The Twins normally carry about 30 players at Elizabethton and up to 35 in the GCL. That is 65. I show 49 players remaining in EST from this group (not including players there rehabbing). In the last eight years, they have signed a low of 20 players (2004) and a high of 33 (last year). The norm appears to be around 26, however, has been higher the last two years, 31 and 33. They appear to always seriously attempt to sign their top ten to fifteen rounds, which would be 13-18 players. After that they sign most of the college seniors, a few of the juniors and J2 kids and usually surprise by signing one or two high school players from the later rounds.

With 49 in camp (the ones I see that you missed which I believe are still around are Marcus Solberg and Junior Subero, unless I missed their releases). You also don't have any of the group coming up this year from the DSL, which should be led by Felix Jorge. The size of this group varies, however, is normally at least a half dozen and has been as high as mid-teens. So if we have 49 in camp, say at least five coming up from the DSL and the average number signed, 26, that is a total of 80 players. They will likely put 65 on the two teams, leaving 15. A few of these and a few of the draft picks will move up (good example is Vargas when his suspension is over), say leaving ten. One can further assume a few will be injured and go on the DL, but they will likely be making another cut of somewhere between five and ten players.