Thread: MLB Draft Discussion: Day 2

Does it appear the Twins way is to build from the bull pen out?

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Another Rice closer, we got them both.

Ok now that is alittle sad lol.

The difference is drafting starters that become relievers (because that's how it usually works), and taking guys that are already relievers. At this point, it is what it is. I have little confidence that three years from now, this minor league system will have any starting pitchers from this draft so far. And that's not good.

Stats on the Rice pitchers from this season:

Player	era	app-gs	cg	sho	sv	ip	h	r	er	bb	so	2b	3b	hr	ab	b/avg	wp	hbp	bk	sfa	sha
Tyler Duffey	1.93	36-0	0	0/2	7	51	33	12	11	21	68	4	1	2	182	.181	3	2	0	0	3
J.T. Chargois	2.15	25-0	0	0/2	8	37	28	11	9	12	38	5	2	1	133	.211	3	2	0	0	8

I guess there's more to these guys than the numbers seeing as the stats say Duffey gets drafted first. I wonder what puts Chargois over the top. The "experts" made it sound like Duffey also may have the ability to start where they all said Chargois is surely a bullpen guy.

Originally Posted by StormJH1

I don't understand this at all. It's hard for me to imagine star, elite pitchers in amateur baseball (HS and college) being thrown in the bullpen unless there was a REASON they weren't starters. I'm sure it's possible to convert one or two of these guys, but why do it?

I'm not even as alarmed by the fact that they're drafting 18 year olds instead of 20-22 year-old college pitchers, I get that this is more long-term. But if you're drafting these relievers because they throw mid-90's and "touch 97", they aren't going to do that as starters. Look at the difference between Perkins as a starter versus a reliever.

You're assuming that these kids can't improve once they leave college. Josh Willingham is the best player on this year's Twins, but was drafted in the 37th round. Mike Piazza, one of the 5 best hitting catchers of all time was drafted in the 50th round. By all rights, both of those guys were "we need some warm bodies in minor league camp" picks, and one is going to a HOFer, while the other will have a solid decade+ career.

Originally Posted by Miles

Stats on the Rice pitchers from this season:

Player	era	app-gs	cg	sho	sv	ip	h	r	er	bb	so	2b	3b	hr	ab	b/avg	wp	hbp	bk	sfa	sha
Tyler Duffey	1.93	36-0	0	0/2	7	51	33	12	11	21	68	4	1	2	182	.181	3	2	0	0	3
J.T. Chargois	2.15	25-0	0	0/2	8	37	28	11	9	12	38	5	2	1	133	.211	3	2	0	0	8

Are you sure that Chargois' name didn't get stuck in the Twins copier and all you are quoting are updated stats? MN Twins better get a DNA test, or maybe this is a PR stunt, these guys are either twins or clones.

Wow, Duffey, at least according to these stats, was striking out about 37% of the guys that he faced. That is some serious good stuff.

At least we've cornered the market on toolsy outfielders and relief pitchers. New strategy consists of pitch-to-contact fly-ball soft-tossers with five outfielders...

Originally Posted by J-Dog Dungan

Wow, Duffey, at least according to these stats, was striking out about 37% of the guys that he faced. That is some serious good stuff.

That's what's confounding about why he went so much lower than Chargois. My guess is Chargois will be tried out as a starter and Duffey will be groomed for high leverage late innings.

Originally Posted by jokin

That's what's confounding about why he went so much lower than Chargois. My guess is Chargois will be tried out as a starter and Duffey will be groomed for high leverage late innings.

As backwards as it sounds, I think it's going to be the other way around. Duffey will get a chance to start. Chargois will be a fast-track relief pitcher.

Originally Posted by jokin

That's what's confounding about why he went so much lower than Chargois. My guess is Chargois will be tried out as a starter and Duffey will be groomed for high leverage late innings.

Nope. Chargois has a wacky delivery that won't work as a starter. Duffey doesn't throw hard but is more well-rounded, so in theory they could give starting a try. He would likely have below-average velocity in that role.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

There is always plenty of talk about college coaches abusing the arms of the starters, and teams are concerned about the high number of pitches they go through per start. This practice may not be connected, but the Twins have recently been stung by Gibson and Wimmers going down. I don't want to claim the Twins are drafting college bullpen arms with the plan to convert them to starters because they see it as a way of getting around the typical abuse to college starters arms, but it may have factored into the decisioning.

I agree it's not likely the only reason for what we're seeing, but when I see the way many big time college coaches rack up pitches on the arms of their starting pitchers, I can't help but think this plays in to the Twins' thinking and perhaps rightfully so. College relievers have matured in to their bodies and give scouts a decent idea of their ability to pitch, without suffering the abuse that their starting pitching peers do.

I also wonder if the new bonus limits are part of this. Instead of drafting college relievers, a team might have drafted HS pitchers with upside in the past, knowing they'd have to pay a bit more in a bonus to keep them from going to college instead. Now that option is pretty much out. So if you're the Twins and you need pitching, but you see a pretty lousy draft class for starting pitching, what do you do?

You take the best hitting prospect.

You take a pass on college starting pitchers who aren't as good as they should be for the spots they're expecting to be drafted at, avoiding overpaying for mediocre quality and high injury risks due to overuse at the college level.

You scout the hell out of hard throwing college relievers who haven't racked up enormous innings, but are already mature enough to move quickly through the system if they perform well and hope some of them can become starting pitchers.

You ignore HS pitchers in the first few rounds because you probably can't pay them enough to keep them from choosing college as a route to getting big paydays in a future draft, instead looking to international options for adding young high-ceiling pitching arms.

Seems like the strategy the Twins are taking and while there's no way to know yet whether it's the right strategy, it's not totally without logic.

Originally Posted by drivlikejehu

Nope. Chargois has a wacky delivery that won't work as a starter. Duffey doesn't throw hard but is more well-rounded, so in theory they could give starting a try. He would likely have below-average velocity in that role.

Thanks for the info guys. Shows you can't rely strictly on the numbers. What exactly is the urgency to "fast-track" at a position where there is no urgency?

Except other teams are taking high school pitchers. Will they mostly fail to sign them?

Originally Posted by drivlikejehu

Except other teams are taking high school pitchers. Will they mostly fail to sign them?

Maybe. Or maybe they'll have to figure out a way to pay them enough to get them signed and either pay less to someone else or pay the penalty for exceeding their allotted budget.

I guess my point was just that, this being the first year of these rules, nobody really knows how easy or difficult it will be to sign HS players. They do have more leverage than many of the college relief pitchers, however. A good HS starter who's drafted in the 3rd or 4th round probably believes he's likely to be a 1st rounder after 3 years of college ball. A good college reliever drafted in the 3rd or 4th round probably doesn't see himself moving up enough by staying in college for his senior year to make risking getting hurt in that year a chance worth taking.

I think different teams are implementing different strategies without knowing how the rules will really affect the resulting signings. Should make following up on who signs who more interesting anyway.

Originally Posted by jokin

Thanks for the info guys. Shows you can't rely strictly on the numbers. What exactly is the urgency to "fast-track" at a position where there is no urgency?

Ha, probably because they have some pretty decent BP talent in the minors and they are going to run out of room for them all. Some arms need to be moved along becaue while the Twins bullpen is fine, there is hardly anyone up there who can't be replaced easily without any regret unlike the many arms with upside in the minors.

And another pitcher, this time a lefty by the name of Andre Martinez (another HS arm)

Tampa drafted Matt Moore in the 8th round back in 2007.

Can Twins be that smart????

Wittgren and Oakes should be some Big 10 names coming off the board soon.