Thread: MLB Draft Discussion: Day One

Two questions on Giolito
1) Will people be disappointed if the #2 pick is Giolito? Seems a little like a reach and a high-risk move.
2) If he falls to #32, BUT the Twins offer him a significant bonus - say they offer him $2.5M instead of $1.5M, taking the $1M from elsewhere - is there any chance he signs?

John, that's possible if they take Correa at #2 and see if he'll take $1 million below slot, which I would be good with.

I think the Twins draft Brown at #32. I think he's gone by #42. A couple of years ago, they really wanted local product Brad Hand but thought he would fall to their next pick. He didn't.

My answers:

1) Would not be disappointed, but the risk is too much there I think. Remember, before the injury he was #1 on a lot of lists.

2) Yes there is a chance. We don't know how negotiations are going to play out, but if it functions more like past drafts than people are thinking, the Twins should be able to save a decent amount of money at #2 compared to the slot recommendation. Giolito's injury also throws a bit of a wrinkle, in the idea that he might not want to pass up the money if he gets offered say, a top 10 dollar amount (which is approximately $3 MIL). What if he goes to UCLA and hurts himself again or even worse? Then he might not ever get any money.

I won't be dissapointed if it's Giolito .. it's a risk but then again it's a UCL strain...it's not torn and there is'nt any plans for surgery...YET. Even if he does have surgery it's another yr of waiting. If they think this kid can be another Strasburg type then they won't mind waiting. They'd have to wait even longer for Buxton to develop so why would'nt they consider Gio. it's not like Appel or Gausman or Zimmer could'nt blow out ther UCL at any time. Every pick is a risk, especially the ML draft so let's everybody stop pretending we know so much about the guys and how upset we'll all be if they don't pick the guy they want.

Originally Posted by wagwan

Can the Twins afford to have another top pitching prospect on rehab? Gibson, Wimmer and Giolito would be the 3 best guys and all have injury issues. But I guess with Giolito, he would not be looking to hit the majors for 4 years or so anyway....If he is that good the injury would not matter so much. The college guys are expected to contribute sooner

Agree this was my point in previous post!

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

Two questions on Giolito
1) Will people be disappointed if the #2 pick is Giolito? Seems a little like a reach and a high-risk move.
2) If he falls to #32, BUT the Twins offer him a significant bonus - say they offer him $2.5M instead of $1.5M, taking the $1M from elsewhere - is there any chance he signs?

1) Nah, if the Twins decide he's the BPA, go for it.
2) I think the rumor is Giolito wants at least 4m to sign. If the Twins take someone at #2 who signs for 4.5, that saves the team 1.7+1.55 for the #32 pick + 600k they are allowed to go over budget would get them pretty close. But I don't think the Twins will go so far underslot at #2 to make that possible. But I'd love it if the Twins were able to get a top 5 talent and Giolito in the same draft.

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

Two questions on Giolito
1) Will people be disappointed if the #2 pick is Giolito? Seems a little like a reach and a high-risk move.
2) If he falls to #32, BUT the Twins offer him a significant bonus - say they offer him $2.5M instead of $1.5M, taking the $1M from elsewhere - is there any chance he signs?

It would be well woth the risk in my opinion. What's the worst that happens? The Twins would get an extra pick next year if they are unable to sign him this summer. Seeing as everyone is down on this draft class, maybe that's a good thing.

Besides, it's not that the Twins CAN'T go over the draft allowance, it's just that they get penalized if they do. If they go over only 5% of the allowance they get taxed 75% on what they go over. That would be about an extra 600k they could spend if someone unexpected fell to them as long as the club is willing to also give 450k back to the MLB petty fund. An extra million is a lot but if someone like Giolitto was a free agent, a deal would not be held up because of that figure. Going over 5% forfeits future draft picks so that should be out of the question, but going over 5% should be an option if they really are getting a steal.

What happens if we don't sign the 2nd pick? I've heard we would get the 3rd pick next year. If true, maybe it wouldn't be the worst thing to play hard ball to sign under slot with the intention of grabbing higher profile players later on. Worst case scenario we get another high draft pick next year in a non historically bad draft class.

Originally Posted by Intramural Legend

What happens if we don't sign the 2nd pick? I've heard we would get the 3rd pick next year. If true, maybe it wouldn't be the worst thing to play hard ball to sign under slot with the intention of grabbing higher profile players later on. Worst case scenario we get another high draft pick next year in a non historically bad draft class.

Well, presumably, the reason to go underslot at #2 is so you can spend that money elsewhere. If the Twins don't sign the #2 pick, they lose 6.2m of their spending cap. So, if they drafted Fried with the expectation he'd sign for 4m and then drafted several above slot guys later, that plan would be ruined if they don't sign Fried. If they're going underslot just to save the Pohlad's some money, well, **** that.

Sickels loves Correa and wants the Twins to take him (he's a Twins fan). I also think he's the one.

According to Keith Law's latest mock he has the Twins drafting Buxton but says "There's a late rumor that has them taking right-hander Kevin Gausman and possibly saving a little money to go after some prep righties with their extra picks."

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Well, presumably, the reason to go underslot at #2 is so you can spend that money elsewhere. If the Twins don't sign the #2 pick, they lose 6.2m of their spending cap. So, if they drafted Fried with the expectation he'd sign for 4m and then drafted several above slot guys later, that plan would be ruined if they don't sign Fried. If they're going underslot just to save the Pohlad's some money, well, **** that.

I'm thinking more of not signing the pick means we get an additional pick with more potential next year. I don't think it would save the Pohlad's any money, just defer some to next year.

For the record, I would like to see the Twins draft Correa. The lack of competition that Buxton has faced makes me nervous.

I like Buxton. He's "a highlight reel waiting to happen"! ".

Maybe we could have Buxton pitch. He had something like 18 strikeouts in his last game.

At least his arm will not be a liability in the outfield...

According to reports from Albert Chen of Sports Illustrated, Buxton has clocked the fastest time out of the box by any right-handed prospect since Bo Jackson, and his arm has been clocked at 99 miles an hour (he is going to be a centerfielder, but he has pitched throughout high school). According to that same article written on May 22, Buxton is hitting .545 this season and has stolen 35 bases in 36 attempts. Given the fact that he is 6'3" and currently 180 pounds, he might fill out even more and add on more power.

Keith Law just published his last mock draft. (Sorry, insider only). He's still going with the Twins getting Buxton. Giolioto goes #11 to the Reds.

He ends the story with some random notes about the Twins looking at Mitch Brown, RHP Shane Watson and Clemson RHP Lucas Sims for #32.

Also, FWIW, John Manuel just suggested on KFAN that the Astros could go a different way with the #1 pick. They're negotiating with their top 5 picks to see who will come in below slot.

1.2 Kevin Gausman RHP LSU 6-4 185 Hard to pass over Correa or Buxton if they are available, but the Twins need pitching in a desperate way. If they draft a college arm they can get him into the rotation within two years and let him finish his development at the major league level. Gausman is now my #1 rated college pitcher, and although he does nto project as a sure #1 starter, he should become a solid #2 guy in the rotation and a solid inning eater. Since the Twins need pitching 1-5, that is a big start.

1.32 (Comp) Brian Johnson LHP Florida 6-3 235 Left hander with above average off speed and curve balls to go along with an average fastball. He has command of his offspeed stuff and should be ready to pitch in the big leagues very quickly.

1.42 (Comp) Mitchell Brown RHP Rochester-Century 6-2 210 College arms are in short supply, so restock the lower minors with Minnesota's best prospect. Brown has a plus curveball and is already big league sized.

2.63 Brenden Kline RHP Virginia 6-3 195 Kline has experience as a starter and a reliever, and has a good fastball, curve and slider.

2.72 Patrick Wisdon 3B St. Mary's 6-2 210 Wisdom has good power potential as a 3B and good approach at the plate if he can put it all together and remain consistent.

3.97 Damien Magnifico RHP Oklahoma 6-2 195 Flame thrower that needs to develop a slider, but could become major league closer if he did.

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

Also, FWIW, John Manuel just suggested on KFAN that the Astros could go a different way with the #1 pick. They're negotiating with their top 5 picks to see who will come in below slot.

I'm not quite sure how they'd sell that to Astros fans. Perhaps they are just trying to drive Appel's price down.

Mike Radcliffe was just on KFAN w Lavelle. If I heard right, he basically said they would either go with Appel or Buxton, whichever the Astros don't take.

Originally Posted by mlhouse

1.2 Kevin Gausman RHP LSU 6-4 185 Hard to pass over Correa or Buxton if they are available, but the Twins need pitching in a desperate way. If they draft a college arm they can get him into the rotation within two years and let him finish his development at the major league level. Gausman is now my #1 rated college pitcher, and although he does nto project as a sure #1 starter, he should become a solid #2 guy in the rotation and a solid inning eater. Since the Twins need pitching 1-5, that is a big start.

1.32 (Comp) Brian Johnson LHP Florida 6-3 235 Left hander with above average off speed and curve balls to go along with an average fastball. He has command of his offspeed stuff and should be ready to pitch in the big leagues very quickly.

1.42 (Comp) Mitchell Brown RHP Rochester-Century 6-2 210 College arms are in short supply, so restock the lower minors with Minnesota's best prospect. Brown has a plus curveball and is already big league sized.

2.63 Brenden Kline RHP Virginia 6-3 195 Kline has experience as a starter and a reliever, and has a good fastball, curve and slider.

2.72 Patrick Wisdon 3B St. Mary's 6-2 210 Wisdom has good power potential as a 3B and good approach at the plate if he can put it all together and remain consistent.

3.97 Damien Magnifico RHP Oklahoma 6-2 195 Flame thrower that needs to develop a slider, but could become major league closer if he did.

I like this for the most part, except I would like C Kevin Plawecki at 63. Not sure about 97 at this point. After 75 or so, I just get lost in players. Could grab Brown at 32 and then see who is still there at 42.