Thread: Sano Arrival ETA

Sano continues to tear it up in the minors. Scouts are calling him the best power threat in all of minor league baseball. When do you expect to see him in a Twins uniform?

My guess is shortly after the arbitration cutoff in 2014.

Sano is slumping right now. I wouldn't be surprised if September 2014 is more likely.

I figure a best case scenerio would be Mauer-like. So he finishes this year in low A. Splits 2013 between A+ and AA. That's enough for the Twins to think he's ML ready in 2014, at 21. That's probably not what will happen. I'll say June 2015.

The Twins will decide they need a proven closer and trade him for Heath Bell.

Assuming he has consistent success and doesn't drop below .800 OPS or go above 1200 OPS (what a range!), I would think he spends 2/3 of 2012 in Beloit, 1/3 of 2012 in Fort Myers, and so on until he is in Rochester by August 2014. I hate the idea of promoting to MLB from AA.

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

I figure a best case scenerio would be Mauer-like.

A reason he could be non-Mauer-like is defense. Joe's was considered good for his age from the start; Miguel has to either improve at 3B or learn a new position, adding at least a year to an "in the majors at age 21" timetable and probably two. Your June 2015 forecast kind of splits the difference.

Originally Posted by Boom Boom

The Twins will decide they need a proven closer and trade him for Heath Bell.

Nah, they're set for the next two years with Capps. What they really need is a fourth catcher, in case you DH one backup and you have to pinch run for the second. That's what you save the Sano trade card for.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

Nah, they're set for the next two years with Capps. What they really need is a fourth catcher, in case you DH one backup and you have to pinch run for the second. That's what you save the Sano trade card for.

That seems a little light on the return. Maybe we could get that fourth catcher AND a AA reliever who could throw through a brick wall if he could ever hit the darned thing.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

Nah, they're set for the next two years with Capps. What they really need is a fourth catcher, in case you DH one backup and you have to pinch run for the second. That's what you save the Sano trade card for.

Agreed. Maybe Gerald Laird would fit that bill.

The closer he gets to the majors and the bigger his reputation gets, the louder the cry from the average fan will be to call him up. If the team is still losing and attendance still hasn't recovered they'll call him up before the All-Star break in 2014 simply to get fans excited and back in the stadium. Right or wrong, they will cave into the pressure of a stronger financial bottom line, don't think for a second that this is not the main concern from this ownership.

He will be with the Twins by next July if he continues to play well. Isnt right now.
Assume he will get to Ft Myers by June/July & start next year in New Brit.....again if he plays well at those stops.
Mn knows they are being watched as other 19/20 yr olds that are comparable are already in the majors

Originally Posted by shanewahl

Assuming he has consistent success and doesn't drop below .800 OPS or go above 1200 OPS (what a range!), I would think he spends 2/3 of 2012 in Beloit, 1/3 of 2012 in Fort Myers, and so on until he is in Rochester by August 2014. I hate the idea of promoting to MLB from AA.

this is pretty close to what I think too... Fastest move up scenario:

When the Rookie leagues start and bodies from EST and the Draft are floating to Beloit he moves to Fort Myers. Starts next season in AA (won't be New Britain) and maybe moves to AAA (won't be Rochester) mid season 2013 again. Unlikely that he gets called up in September of 2013, he does not need to be added to the 40 man roster until 2015. Gets invited to ST in 2014 and maybe he makes the team as a 1B taking Morneau's place. Earliest possible scenario. More likely he will be in AAA in 2014 (starting 2013 at Fort Myers and moving to AA mid-season, starting 2014 in AA and moving to AAA mid-season)

One needs to think something else about Sano: He is a kid who grew up in a total different world. He came to the US a couple years ago and has been living with host families. He never lived alone in the US. That is something that he probably needs to learn too before he is ready for the bigs... Not only the on the field stuff...

What 19/20 yr old does sano compare to? Harper? He is a five tool phenom, sano is mostly a power hitter. His average will decrease as he moves up. Sano IMO will hit a very respectable .285ish when he is in the majors to stay. I think that would be great and the Twins will need that along with the obvious power he possesses. He won't be a Harper or Trout though. And there are other 18/19 yr olds in the minors that are just as big of prospects as sano. Don't get me wrong I wis he was ready now I'd love to watch him light up the majors for years starting now. It's just not possible. I would rather wait for him then have the twins do to him as Tampa did to delmon young

Originally Posted by Chance

What 19/20 yr old does sano compare to?

The closest comparable that people talk about is Miguel Cabrera. He broke into the bigs as a 20 yr old (half season), did well as 21 year old and took off as a 22 year old with the Marlins

I can see the Cabrera comparison though I don't think sano will hit for as much of an average. It would still be great if he reached that potential.

Originally Posted by thrylos98

The closest comparable that people talk about is Miguel Cabrera.

But can he put away the sauce like Miggity Cabriggity?

This is the Twins, 2015 at the earliest.

Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard

But can he put away the sauce like Miggity Cabriggity?

hopefully not. Kid is under age still

Aggressively, I would say August of 2014... More likely, June of 2015.

we'll look back on this but I am shocked at how conservative most are (YES I know its the Twins) but this winter when he's a top 10 BAmerica prospect....the team is gonna get SOOO much heat about getting him up here......this is ALL contingent on him playing well the rest of this season & esp after his Ft Myers promotion (TRyan has already said 2wks ago he'd like Sano to get a couple more wks in Beloit....which leads me to a June promotion).
Easy to be conservative when you are good.....very hard when you are horrible.