Thread: Article: Twins Upper Level Talent

Originally Posted by Fanatic Jack

The Twins have a decent minor league system but let's be honest, it's not the Tampa Bay Rays.

I'm pretty sure no one is claiming that it is... although, once Matt Moore loses his "prospect eligibility," I don't know that there is much difference.

Seth,

I don't disagree at all with your above statement. Our best prospects are at Beloit this year and we have five draft picks in the top 75 to replenish the farm system. Who do you think we will select with #2 overall pick now that Giolito is hurt? I was realy hoping for a #1 Ace pitcher but that seems highly unlikely now.

Seth--it seems you are going way out of your way to find a positive spin on the current state of the Twins minor league system.
Why is it so hard to accept that the Twins have below average talent in the upper levels of their minor league system? You don't have to be a genius to figure that out. It's pretty obvious.
Sure, a few will make it to the Bigs and make a contribution. Although, most will be utility, part timers, bullpen guys, or below average starters.
This team looks like it's heading for steady decline in the next few years, and the current lack of impact type prospects is the main reason for that.

I'm not a fan of the current rotation, but just think how bad it will be in the next year or two. Absolutely no impact starters anywhere on the horizon.....

Originally Posted by cr9617

I'm not a fan of the current rotation, but just think how bad it will be in the next year or two. Absolutely no impact starters anywhere on the horizon.....

Well, I think Gibson still can have impact in the next couple years, and I wouldn't be surprised if Wimmers becomes a nice option as well.

Back to the main topic, my earlier point still remains. Teams that win divisions, and titles, don't do it with lineups consisting of the players like the Twins currently have in the upper level of the minors. There may be guys who are ML starters, but they are guys who are going to be starters on second division teams. You win with impact players and the Twins are sadly short on those guys in the upper levels of the minors. For a team that is supposed to be built from within, it's a sad statement, especially when you see that they also haven't graduated any impact players in the last couple years. It's far too long a drought for a team that is supposed to rely heavily on home grown players. Terry Ryan is primarily responsible for the lack of talent at these levels as he was in charge or "advising" over all the recent drafts. That's one reason I was never as excited about his return as most. I think he's an upgrade over Smith, but the recent results don't scream huge success as far as evaluating and elevating amateur talent.

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

I get what you're saying, but to be honest, I don't care if they would start for those other teams.

I care. Shouldn't the goal be to have better players than other teams? Isn't that how you win? Don't we want the Twins to win?

Collecting players not good enough to play for anyone else doesn't seem like a good strategy to me.

The reality of the situation is you just don't know what is going to happen. The Twins drafted Hunter, Koskie, Jones, Mienkiewicz, Pierzynski, Span, Mauer, and Morneau and they all turned into impact players. The hope is they will catch lightening in the bottle again with Gibson, Wimmers, Benson, Parmelee, Hicks, Dozier, Michael, and Sano. I believe what hurt the farm system is missing on so many number one picks. The Twins have five draft picks this year in the top 75 so they have to get some impact players and not screw it up.

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

Fair enough... but I think we all know that there is a difference between an Impact player and a role player... individual definitions of each are dependent upon each person's opinion. I guess I would have to add another option in between those two. In my mind, a guy like Dozier may not be an Impact player if defined as a multi-time All-Star. But if a guy becomes a guy who plays 140 games a year for 3-6 years, that's certainly more than just a role player. I also don't believe that a #3 starter is a "role" player either. He may not be a Cy Young candidate and make that big of an impact, but to a 25 man roster, the number 3 starter is certainly more than just a role player. In my prospect rankings, I generally don't rank relievers very high, but if you Carlos Gutierrez becomes "a dominant force in the 7th or 8th inning", that's a very important role. If Rene Tosoni is a platoon starter or a bench bat, that's a role player, for sure.

My point wasn't to say that the Twins have a lot of guys who will be Hall of Famers in the upper levels, but they have 5-6 guys who could contribute in a big way (as a starter in the lineup, as a starting in the rotation, or a key component in the bullpen) and several others who can fill roles. The cupboard is far from bare.

ITA with this. Look at how hard it's been for the Twins to fill the SS position. If Dozier becomes an average MLB starting SS for 4-6 seasons with the club, he won't be considered an "impact" player by some, but it'd be a huge win for the franchise not having to search for a SS every season and enduring the many failures we've had over the years.

And a #3 or #4 starter is an impact player too. Teams are always looking for starting pitching, and continuing to develop quality MLB starters is also very good. Filling that #3/4 hole and not overpaying on a replacement-level free agent? Also a big win.

I think I look at "impact" players differently than a lot of the so-called experts; my thoughts are much more like Seth's. Impact players in the upper-levels to me are guys who can come up and fill in when someone gets an injury and not drag the club down. They're guys who have the potential to be starters in MLB for several years. They don't have to just be all-stars in the making to be serious impact players for me. And the twins have a number of guys in AA & AAA that meet that definition.

People always want to have the Next Big Star one promotion away. But that doesn't happen too often. Hopefully the guy the Twins get with the #2 pick in the draft will be one of those players, but even if it doesn't happen I don't think the cupboard is bare and I think the twins can continue to look to their minor league system first when trying to fill holes in the starting lineup.

Lots of straw man arguments here made against those of us saying that the talent isn't there (and wasn't last year or hte year before, either....that's the problem). No one in this thread is insisting that the Twins have ROY of the year candidates just waiting to be called up. No on is saying a lot of what defenders of they system is claimin we are saying. I am saying that if you won't sign or trade for FAs or other players making a lot of money, then you need to be better at drafting and developing players than other teams. The Twins have not had a real, legit starting player come up in three years. Valencia might or might not be one, but that's it. In three years. Not asking for ROY, not asking for allstars. Asking for legit starting MLB players more often than maybe 1 every three years is not unreasonable, imo.

Mike wants wins,

I totally agree with you!! This is where GM Terry Ryan being in charge again will really help out. The upcoming draft is a very important one for the Twins in June.

Originally Posted by Fanatic Jack

This is where GM Terry Ryan being in charge again will really help out.

I don't see how you can make that claim, Ryan has been heavily involved in the Twins draft and player development for the last several years. Unless you think Ryan is an improvement on Ryan, this just doesn't make sense to me.

Actually, Mike you are right to a degree. The Twins had a whole group of prospects who could be helping right now,but did not work out. Kelly and Thompson were high draft choice middle infielders who could never stay healthy. Sanchez was a potential power hitter draft choice who plainly didn't do a thing. A whole bunch of highly drafted pitchers either haven't worked out or are delayed by injuries or just aren't as good as hoped.


Nevertheless, Seth is largely right, there is now talent in the upper minors and some will likely help soon. I think Henricks will be better than many think and there are perhaps 3 other starters who could help inside 2 years.


Comparing the Twins talent to teams that have spent 10 or more consective years drafting in the top 5 of every draft is a fool's game. When those same teams turn around and trade their major league impact players for more minor leaguers, well they should have a strong minor league system. If Tampa and KC continue to have strong minor league systems AND a contending major league team im 5 years, I will be more impressed.

Ideally each team would have two 'impact' players come up each year and contribute to their team's already stacked, impact player roster... right? That seems to be the expectation of many. And that's fine. But they couldn't have known that Thompson and Kelly would be hurt forever or Sanchez was going to turn into what he turned into.

This isn't meant as degrading, but does anyone think that Twins fans might have been a little spoiled when, between 2003 and 2006, the Twins had Morneau, Mauer, Crain, Baker, Garza, Slowey, Neshek and Liriano all come up and do very well right away? That is certainly not the normal for any team.

That's not excusing not having impact guys come up for a few years, although Valencia was certainly an impact player in 2010, right?

Originally Posted by Fanatic Jack

Mike wants wins,

I totally agree with you!! This is where GM Terry Ryan being in charge again will really help out. The upcoming draft is a very important one for the Twins in June.

Except Ryan was the GM when the guys drafted that should have come up the last two years and this year were drafted....Had those drafts gone better, they'd not be in this position.