Thread: Article: How Good Are the Twins?

Originally Posted by savvyspy

It seems like General Managing 101. Only sell guys who are free agents at the end of the year (Capps) or guys who have value but not close to their salary (Morneau, Mauer) and keep productive guys under team control for reasonable money (Span, Willingham). Unfortunately I never have thought the Twins front office knows anything about what it takes to manage a roster properly. I'm not confident this trade deadline will be much different than the past few. They probably sit on their hands to avoid getting fleeced.

Unfortunately you don't get much value back that way. Other clubs wont be giving up any promising youngsters for a rental player, particularly a bullpen rental. They also wont give up much for guys who are under-performing and carry a large contract. If you want to score quality prospects you do have to trade the productive players under team control.

Originally Posted by travistwinstalk

Why do you have to throw water on good baseball. who knows if this can continue but can't we just enjoy the good baseball instead of saying they can't do this or do that. Just bothers me that instead of enjoying good baseball we feel the need to be skeptical if it continues just doesn't make sense to me.

It's called "analysis" Travis. That's what I do here.

Nick, we have no choice though. Do you trust them to sit on their hands and rely only on the minors?

Originally Posted by savvyspy

Unfortunately I never have thought the Twins front office knows anything about what it takes to manage a roster properly. I'm not confident this trade deadline will be much different than the past few. They probably sit on their hands to avoid getting fleeced.

No matter what people think of Terry Ryan you have to admit that he is reasonably skilled at taking a good major league player and trading him away for quality prospects (AJ trade, Knoblauch trade, Milton trade, ect....) I expect that if he does make a trade he will not get fleeced and the players we get will impact the team in coming years.

I'm not real sure about the "good baseball" thing. Most nights it's been which team is worse not which team is good. Lots of bad pitching, baserunning and fielding along with poor hitting. Its just that the last couple weeks the Twins are less worse.

Originally Posted by twinswon1991

This is still a 90+ loss team just like they have been the last 2 years.

---2011 may have felt like it lasted twice as long as most others, but I'm pretty sure it was still only 1 season.

I think that every team has peaks and valleys during the season. At this point the Twins are in a peak. Still they are on a pace for 96 losses, so we have to look at the big picture and not focus on this temporal peak. They absolutely have to be sellers at this point and start getting new blood (esp. arms here because 2013 is starting to look fairly futile as well...)

On the other hand, here are a cuople of fairly encouraging stats: At this point NOBODY other than middle infielders has an OPS+ of less than 100 and the only RP who allowed more hits than IPs is Swarzak and lots of those hits came on his starts.

This indicates that this might be a fairly decent core to build on. But, again, this rotation needs major overhaul to the rhyme of 3 plus pitchers in addition to Hendriks and Diamond in 2013. How do you do that? By trades...

"In light of these parallels, fans are now wondering whether the team's current improvement is legitimate or another painful mirage. Fortunately, there are plenty of indications that a similarly dramatic drop-off is not on the horizon."

---Yep, that's the question. No reason to think this is the start of the unstoppable second-half freight train a la the 2006 team. But I expect better than the second-half train wreck of 2011.

Hopefully we'll see some consistently competent baseball with youngster like Dozier, Diamond and Plouffe showing progress and Mauer and Morneau showing signs of returning to their former greatness.

Historically, the reasoning of many posters here regarding "Should He Stay or Should He Go?" leaves a bit to be desired. Most previously asked that Lohse and Pierzynski not let the door smack them in the ass on their way out. Dickey's departure as barely noticed. Some pined for Thome to stay. Many still lament the loss of Gomez, Bartlett,and Ramos, although the latter will likely rebound.. Pavano, up until recently, had surpased expectations, as has Capps.

Having signed Santana, Hunter, Cuddy, Kubal and Nathan would have been nice. Wouldn't all of us want to be blessed with a mid-market sized team with a payroll up there with the Yankees?

Compared to most other teams, I'd say that the Twins' front office has done a respectful job keeping the team competative this year. And that we'll see more of that competativeness in the last half of the season.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

I don't consider anyone to be off limits, per se, but I am admittedly a little nervous about the front office's ability to bring back sufficient talent in a trade. Dealing away a one-year guy like Capps or Doumit carries little downside, but when you're talking about getting rid of a quality player under contract for multiple years at a reasonable price, the pressure to bring back useful pieces increases dramatically. Considering their talent evaluation in recent years, can we trust the Twins to make a Span trade worthwhile?

Agree, somewhat. I think we all knew that pitching would be a problem this season. The bats didn't come around right away and the 6+ era didn't help that. If the twins can muck their way through this season, get away from the Pavano contract, get Baker and Gibson healthy, use this season to build off of success for Diamond, Walters and Hendricks. Use the 1 year guys to get some Bullpen depth in the future. Put the twins in a position to at least be competitive so when The Sanos, and Buxtons are ready in 2014-2015 it pushes them over the top.

I despise when teams sell off everything for a guess on a prospect that might materialize in 3 years. The twins have the offense now, they need the pitching. Get to within a few games and make a move.

Prediction: Twins are within 3 games of first by the ASB and are NOT sellers.

Originally Posted by kemics

Prediction: Twins are within 3 games of first by the ASB and are NOT sellers.

That would be awesome. I'm just not sure they have the pitching to pull it off.

Originally Posted by kemics

Agree, somewhat. I think we all knew that pitching would be a problem this season. The bats didn't come around right away and the 6+ era didn't help that. If the twins can muck their way through this season, get away from the Pavano contract, get Baker and Gibson healthy, use this season to build off of success for Diamond, Walters and Hendricks. Use the 1 year guys to get some Bullpen depth in the future. Put the twins in a position to at least be competitive so when The Sanos, and Buxtons are ready in 2014-2015 it pushes them over the top.

I despise when teams sell off everything for a guess on a prospect that might materialize in 3 years. The twins have the offense now, they need the pitching. Get to within a few games and make a move.

Prediction: Twins are within 3 games of first by the ASB and are NOT sellers.

1) Scott Baker- Probably less than 50-50 that Baker comes back: 1)healthy, 2)as effective previously when healthy AND 3) still in a Twins uniform.
2) Kyle Gibson- Probably comes back healthy but it usually takes at least 1.5 years of playing to begin to return to previous level of effectiveness.
3) Scott Diamond- Compelling story about his success, but need more than 7 starts to demonstrate proven level of success.
4) PJ Walters- Less compelling story about his success.
5) Liam Hendricks- Non-compelling story about his success. He had an ERA of 9.00 on his first tour, AAA numbers outstanding, he'll figure it out sooner or later.
6) The Sanos- Wish there were two. Still learning to hit a breaking ball and field a ground ball. By 2015 when he's 22, we'll see how different his numbers are from Hicks.
7) Byron Buxton- Tabula rasa.

8) Your prediction is possible but maybe not desirable if the Twins repeat last year's Buyer?/Seller? fiasco. It is important to note that the easier part of the schedule ends this weekend. Counting the next two series, the combined records of the Twins opposition since May 16 is 187-233, that's playing at a .445 clip. Upcoming, the records of the teams the Twins play into the ASB is 184-173, a more respectable .515 rate.

Originally Posted by thrylos98

This indicates that this might be a fairly decent core to build on. But, again, this rotation needs major overhaul to the rhyme of 3 plus pitchers in addition to Hendriks and Diamond in 2013. How do you do that? By trades...

Shedding the salaries of Pavano, Liriano, Baker and Marquis saves the Twins $23.5M. There are an abundance of plus pitchers available on the FA market this offseason. Could 2 of those pitchers be signed for $10-12M each? Absolutely. Unfortunately, the Twins are stuck with Blackburn, but with good 2nd halves from Diamond and Hendriks 4 of the 5 rotation spots could be solid. Gibson will be working his way back in the event of Blackburn falling apart. League average lineup, decent rotation, good bullpen, crappy division - would they really be out of it next year?

The Twins largest FA signing ever is Willingham for $21MM. They shed salary this year, and are likely to see a decline in attendance. You really think they'll sign two front line starters next year?

Originally Posted by jokin

1) Scott Baker- Probably less than 50-50 that Baker comes back: 1)healthy, 2)as effective previously when healthy AND 3) still in a Twins uniform.
2) Kyle Gibson- Probably comes back healthy but it usually takes at least 1.5 years of playing to begin to return to previous level of effectiveness.

1) My feeling is that all of those is WELL less than 50-50 based mostly on the third condition. With the uncertainty and the timing, I feel like it would be very hard for them to pick up the option. Once the option isn't picked up--and this is based on nothing but feeling--it seems unlikely/uncommon that someone will then sign with the team that did the non-picking-up of the option.

2) I've poked a very very little bit to try to get facts rather than feelings about when guys get back to full strength (or close) after TJ surgery. I've never gotten far enough to feel like I have a good sense of it. Anyone have anything other than anecdotal evidence? There was recently some thread(s) here that even linked to some information about how common the surgery has gotten, and I think that even commented on how successful it was from a "come backs to pitch" perspective, but I don't think it got into the timing aspect. That Gibson will have 17 months from surgery to the actual season starting next year has been reason for optimism for me, but I don't know if it actually should be or if that's just hopes and dreams.

Originally Posted by jokin

It is important to note that the easier part of the schedule ends this weekend. Counting the next two series, the combined records of the Twins opposition since May 16 is 187-233, that's playing at a .445 clip. Upcoming, the records of the teams the Twins play into the ASB is 184-173, a more respectable .515 rate.

Texas Rangers (last 3 games before the ASB): 35-26 (.574)
Other teams after this weekend (17 games): 149-147 (.503). And even though the Pirates are 5 games over .500, they've got a -17 run differential. So, sure, the schedule is getting tougher, but it's still not tough.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

The Twins largest FA signing ever is Willingham for $21MM. They shed salary this year, and are likely to see a decline in attendance. You really think they'll sign two front line starters next year?

They will if they don't want to see a decline in attendance again next year.

Originally Posted by kemics

Prediction: Twins are within 3 games of first by the ASB and are NOT sellers.

Thanks for the chuckle...just checked the Twins schedule...last 7 games before the ASB are Tigers (4) and Texas (3). Texas is simply the best team in MLB right now and I expect Tigers just about ready to turn it around...if Twins win 2 of those 7 I will be shocked.

Originally Posted by James Richter

Texas Rangers (last 3 games before the ASB): 35-26 (.574)
Other teams after this weekend (17 games): 149-147 (.503). And even though the Pirates are 5 games over .500, they've got a -17 run differential. So, sure, the schedule is getting tougher, but it's still not tough.

Agreed, but in this case, "tough" is a relative term for a team performing like the Twins, who have a -67 run differential. Even with their recent awakening from the early-season slumbers, they are still the worst team in the AL, playing at a .407 pace. They are 9th in the AL in OPS and are in last place in AL pitching stats in virtually every category (except in BB, where they are in first place in fewest walks allowed--- a hearty hoo-yah to pitch-to-contact!).

Originally Posted by DAM DC Twins Fans

Thanks for the chuckle...just checked the Twins schedule...last 7 games before the ASB are Tigers (4) and Texas (3). Texas is simply the best team in MLB right now and I expect Tigers just about ready to turn it around...if Twins win 2 of those 7 I will be shocked.

Sadly, that sounds about right, the Tigers are due for a run here as they just got Jackson back and their team power numbers are climbing rapidly, but I disagree- 2-5 won't be shocking, just a strong close for a team "out there battling" going into the break.