Article: DRAFT DAY: Twins Myth #3448: Outfield Depth

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by thrylos98

Part of the reasons for that were because a. they were renting Lee for 2 months b. a single pitcher would had not make them WS contenders and c. Lee is a first class $@&%8$&

If they traded their top 2 OF prospects for the top 2 SP prospects of another organization, it would be a totally different story.

---

a. they not only would have had Lee for 2 months, but ALSO either the first shot at re-signing him or TWO compensatory draft picks with which to replace Hicks and Ramos. b. you don't KNOW what his effect would have been, both in terms of winning enough games during the season to change the postseason match-ups and his own postseason performance, nor do you know what additional moves the Twins might have made if they were that committed to winning in 2010. c. So what? Pavano can be, too, and they've kept him around. Are we only interested in aces with personalities we "like"?

And nobody will ever trade their two best SP prospects for 2 OF prospects, so if that's the only hope you're going to hold on to, forget it... you'd better draft pitching. Teams hoard top-flight starting pitching until a guy becomes too expensive to keep.

As disastrous as our starting pitching is throughout the system with the best piitchers only throwing 90 and don't seem to project as much more than an average 3 starter (Gibson with his TJ can't be counted on until you see what you got) you have to go with a starter with some velocity and potential to miss bats.

I think buxton is tempting but drafting toolsie players is such a risk and one that the twins can't afford to take. Even if he panned out he wouldn't be here for 4-6 years.

The twins have no problem signing FA outfielders but wont stick money into a decent starter. Look at marquis career numbers! Who thought that he would last til the All-star break? I mean what a joke. Any pitcher we draft after the 2nd pick will be like the rest, soft tosser who pitch to contact and can maybe be a 4 or 5 starter if he pans out.

They need a potential 1 or 2 type pitcher. We the fans need one. I think you go with gausman or if they feel lucky try giolito who can hit 100 as a high schooler. After all the twins believe that they can teach any player control... So take a pitcher, please!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jim Crikket

I hesitate to even comment on this article because I genuinely don't care who the Twins pick because it really is such a crapshoot anyway. That said, I totally agree that, in theory, you go ahead and take the BPA even if it's at a position of relative depth, because you can always trade that depth for front line pitching.

The problem with that theory, however, is that the Twins have not historically been willing to do that. And even when they have been willing to, a sizable number of their fans go bannanas. It was almost exactly two years ago that the Twins reportedly had offered Hicks and Ramos to Seattle for a couple months of renting Cliff Lee. People went nuts. Those are two of our top five prospects, you can't do that!!! Fine... so Lee goes to Texas and the Rangers go to the World Series, while the Twins, without anything resembling a front line pitcher, bend over and allow the Yankees to spank them three straight games and haven't sniffed .500 baseball since. Instead, the Twins get Matt Capps for Ramos and still have Hicks trying to bat his way out of AA two years later.

Point is, it's absolutely right to draft the best player available regardless of position IF you're willing to part with legitimate prospects to fill important (and expensive) needs at critical times. But if you're NOT willing to do that, then you'd better forget drafting BPA and focus on the pitcher with the best upside, because it's the only way you'll ever get a top of the rotation pitcher.

---

Exactly. I think it is a foregone conclusion that, if the Astros really take Appel, the Twins are taking Buxton. I wish it would be otherwise, for the reason you mention.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jim Crikket

a. they not only would have had Lee for 2 months, but ALSO either the first shot at re-signing him or TWO compensatory draft picks with which to replace Hicks and Ramos. b. you don't KNOW what his effect would have been, both in terms of winning enough games during the season to change the postseason match-ups and his own postseason performance, nor do you know what additional moves the Twins might have made if they were that committed to winning in 2010. c. So what? Pavano can be, too, and they've kept him around. Are we only interested in aces with personalities we "like"?

And nobody will ever trade their two best SP prospects for 2 OF prospects, so if that's the only hope you're going to hold on to, forget it... you'd better draft pitching. Teams hoard top-flight starting pitching until a guy becomes too expensive to keep.

---

Jim Crikket is dominating this thread with insight. And this is why I believe a top-tier OF is equal to a second-tier SP, by the way. That's why I don't think there is any way to judge "best player available." Ask the BPA crowd who is the best pitcher available and you will get four different answers! How does adding position players into the question make it any less muddy? Why Buxton might be top-tier OF, I think he is in the same overall tier of players with the college pitchers, Giolito, Fried, and Correa and Zunino.

thank you for all of the great comments. This is a fun discussion. I do want to make a couple of quick comments on my own behalf. first, I only wrote of the outfield lose that we all were so high on that have plateaued or gone bbackwards this year. that is why I did not mention arcia, who is been remarkable this season. he should move up quickly, and remind people of jason kubel. the point of the article was just say that 'outfield depth' is not a good reason to not take buxton. that said, of the 6 or 7 players that the twins could take that number 2, buxton would be ranked fifth or sixth for me.

I would rank them:

Gausman (had to pick one pitcher at the top)
Correa (SS or 3B)
Appel (tied with Zimmer)
Zimmer (tied with Appel)
Giolito (highest ceiling)
Fried (coming on very strong in many scout's eyes and is a lefty)
Buxton
Zunino

If I had to do so.

I posted that in the gleeman amd the geeks podcast forum. I asked people for their top 3. then, when we look back at this in 7 or 8 years, we can see who was smart.

Gausman, Correa, Appel/Zimmer, Buxton...but I think Giolito could be the best of them, but I'm not willing to roll that dice given the injury. That does NOT mean I think Buxton is the 4th best prospect, but that I think having almost no starting pitching prospects that project to even a number 2 in your entire system (from the majors on down), means you need to add pitching. I'd rather have bad OF and good pitching than what they have now.

Of course, if I were really interested enough to care a lot about who the Twins pick and wanted to make the argument for Buxton or another position player, I'd pose the question of whether people really believe the best use of the #2 pick overall would be on a player who, in the unlikely event that he actually hits his ceiling, would appear in less than 20% of his team's games and in less than 15% of his team's total innings... and that would be in his BEST seasons. I want a front of the rotation SP as much as anyone, but I'm not altogether sure it's a wise move with a pick that high. I just wish the organization seemed more inclined to trade for good pitching once in a while.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jim Crikket

Of course, if I were really interested enough to care a lot about who the Twins pick and wanted to make the argument for Buxton or another position player, I'd pose the question of whether people really believe the best use of the #2 pick overall would be on a player who, in the unlikely event that he actually hits his ceiling, would appear in less than 20% of his team's games and in less than 15% of his team's total innings... and that would be in his BEST seasons. I want a front of the rotation SP as much as anyone, but I'm not altogether sure it's a wise move with a pick that high. I just wish the organization seemed more inclined to trade for good pitching once in a while.

---

Trading for good pitching can still happen after drafting Gausman, though. Capps might bring something of value back at the deadline. As could Doumit. And clearly Span would if the Twins want to go that way. Revere might bring something back as well. I don't wish players injuries, but I hope a team like the Rangers or Reds has some so that they are a bit more desperate for players for the playoff run and the playoffs. I would be most happy with the Twins taking Gausman or Correa. Less happy with Appel or Zimmer. Less happy with Buxton or Zunino, etc.

But when has Terry Ryan traded prospects for pitching? I think that was Jim's point.....that said, I understand his other argument, that one pitcher doesn't help as much as one OFer. It is a good point, as are most of Mr. Crikket's points.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jim Crikket

I'd pose the question of whether people really believe the best use of the #2 pick overall would be on a player who, in the unlikely event that he actually hits his ceiling, would appear in less than 20% of his team's games and in less than 15% of his team's total innings

---

Doesn't a similar logic cap a batter's opportunities to aid the offense at a little above 10%?

ashburyjohn: Position players don't just bat, however, unless you're drafting a pure DH (which I don't think anyone does). They also contribute every inning by playing defense and, hopefully, do so almost every game. A starting pitcher can only influence the games he pitches. A position player has the potential to influence every game offensively and defensively.

mike wants wins: You've stumbled upon my secret for always being right... I simply argue both sides of the debate. :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

I noticed that right away too. But this statement from the article made me refrain from commenting about it.

"Obviously there are several more outfielders in the system, four to five per team, but for people to say that the Twins have huge outfield depth is, unfortunately, no longer the case."

---

Sure, but the issue I have with that is some of the other outfielders that WERE mentioned. Rene Tosoni, who hasn't hit above .271 (at FTM) since 2008, which would be his age 21/22 season (July birthday). Arcia on the other hand, in his mostly age 21 season (May birthday) is showing far more success. Compare their two lines, which are actually apples to apples, since they each have approximately 45 games at the A+ level in the seasons I'm referencing.

Arcia--.330/.388/.551 (.940 OPS), 24/61 hits are XBH (14 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, .39 XBH AVG), 18 BB, 44K (.4 BB/K ratio) in 48 games
Tosoni--.300/.402/.425 (.827 OPS), 11/42 hits are XBH (7 2B, 3 3B, 1 HR, .26 XBH AVG), 21 BB, 30K (.7 BB/K ratio) in 42 games

For further consideration, here are Hicks' numbers from last year (his age 21 season, October birthday). Since he played 122 games, I divided all non-average numbers by 2.7, to get a 45 game sample size for ease of comparison

Hicks--.242/.354/.368 (.722 OPS), 15.2/40 hits are XBH (11.5 2B, 1.9 3B, 1.9 HR, .38 XBH AVG), 28.9 BB, 40.7K (.7 BB/K ratio) in 45 game sample

Other than the strikeout numbers, Arcia is clearly the most advanced, despite being the only one of these players that was not at least 21 for the entire season. If I had to rank the Twins outfield prospects right now, I feel like I would have to go in the following order...

1. Arcia--should be at AA, which puts him at the exact same level, except younger, than any of the other true prospects on this list
2. Benson--closer to putting it all together than anyone else. If the time off lets him get things mentally right, he'll be back at AAA in August, and with the big club in September
3. Hicks--has actually held his numbers (other than BB/K ratio) despite moving up a level. Is hitting for more power, and stealing more bases while getting caught less than last year too.
4. Any number of other guys could go in here, but they are all way down in the system, and probably 3 years away from contributing (Morales, Williams, Rodriguez, Kepler).

I can't call Tosoni a prospect anymore because he's about to turn 26, has big league time, but couldn't hang at AAA this year. Barring him catching on fire, Tosoni seems like a replacement level outfielder at best at this point, as he's unlikely to move past Revere or Benson in the pecking order in my opinion, and as demonstrated above, has Arcia hot on his heels.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

then, when we look back at this in 7 or 8 years, we can see who was smart.

---

Or lucky....

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jim Crikket

ashburyjohn: Position players don't just bat

---

Sure, but the additional value brought by the glove pales in comparison, bringing a position player up to maybe around the same 15% you mention for a stud pitcher, by this back-of-the-envelope math.

Since I see the balance as being more or less close, I guess I'm poaching on your patented technique of not being squarely on either side of the debate either. :)

I'd have Benson working with a meditation expert right now. His brain needs to slow down.

I'm with Seth, Buxton barely cracks the top 5 for me. Appel, Zimmer, Correa, Gausman, Buxton. Twins aren't going to ever sign a top-flight FA pitcher, so if they want one, they have to draft him. Now's as good a time as they're going to get having the #2 pick to do so, even if none of these guys are Strasburg-like.