05-08-2012, 11:21 PM #1
Article: A History Lesson: Twins Pitching - Draft Edition
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?52...-Draft-Edition
05-09-2012, 06:25 AM #2
To be fair, if not for injury, Kyle Gibson would be up right now, but you're not wrong. It actually looks to me like there was an "Organizational change in philosophy" that started in 2007 which looked to drafting college pitchers... To be also fair, it was injuries that cost Gutierrez, Gibson, Bashore and now Wimmers... It's hard to say they were bad picks because we don't know. And, no one could have predicted the level of struggle that Shooter Hunt had, even though he was a little more wild his junior year at Tulane. And certainly no one could have predicted it from Alex Wimmers last year. I agree with your general premise in this blog, but it's hard for me to argue with the selections. I mean, it's like this year, fans want a college pitcher. The Twins have definitely taken college pitchers early the last few years. And, finally, there's no reason to completely give up on Gibson, Wimmers and even Gutierrez yet. All three could still have long, productive careers with the Twins!
05-09-2012, 07:20 AM #3
This article proves just hoe terrible the scouting department is. The Polads need to fire Ryan and his wahed up scouts before they screw up another draft. Take the savings and throw the money at front office folks from the Rays or Jays. Without forward thinking guys in the font office this team will NEVER compete again.
05-09-2012, 07:54 AM #4
I won't pretend to know how to identify, evaluate, and project amateur talent, but man, they sure have a bad track record. Makes me want to go all Dan Osterbrock on the twitter machine.
05-09-2012, 08:20 AM #5
05-09-2012, 10:02 AM #6
In addition to that, I suspect the Twins will do a better job this year and next year due to the simple fact that they are going to have higher picks in the draft. That said, plenty of good teams have build solid farm systems without having to endure a string of losing seasons
The fail rate for highly drafted pitchers is pretty high. There are so few truly dominant pitchers, especially dominant pitchers who remain dominant for more than a year or two. If you manage to draft or acquire several young dominant pitchers like Tampa Bay, San Francisco or Washington did, you have had a certain amont of good fortune.
Even franchises like Kansas City and Pittsburg who picked high in the draft year after don't usually end up with more than one dominant pitcher at any one time on their staff.
I am not making excuses for the Twins. This year the Twins will almost certainly take at least 3 college pitchers in their first 6 picks. These will all be highly scouted picks, and most "experts" will likely congratulate the Twins on a good job. It probably will be a good job too, if those picks just stay healthy.
05-09-2012, 10:11 AM #7
Good article and comments. I dont follow the minors as closely as some of you...but I have noticed that Twins picks havent clicked (as the Hawk says) since 2005 or so. That seems to go along with your article. Its not just pitchers--also position players. Is it the switch to Deron Johnson in 2007 you mentioned??
05-09-2012, 10:18 AM #8
I'll give my spin for the data.
1) The Twins extended a successful organizational run for years based on high pick, college pitchers that moved up the ladder fairly rapidly. However...
2) In 2006 and 2007 the didn't put any high picks towards pitchers. Then,
3) in 2008 the two they got were busts and
4) 2009 and 2010 have been creamed by injuries to some fairly impactful arms.
Add that up and you get a short cycle in the minor league which hasn't been fed for five years, leaving it nearly destitute. That drought was seemingly self-inflicted early (anyone remember why the Twins went away from college pitcher in those drafts?) followed by a combination of bad luck and busts. The way to get through that is to get some arms from lower rounds or trades. The former has NEVER been a strength and the latter only worked through he early part of the decade.
05-09-2012, 10:27 AM #9
I'm not sure this tells us all that much. The Twins have used homegrown talent throughout this decade (Liriano should be included in your list) and found many good pieces later in the draft - Neshek, Duesning, Blackburn. And not all drafts were created equal. Look at the 07 draft - we had the 28th overall pick and then the 92nd (lots of supplemental picks there). It was a weak draft overall - Revere right now has the 16th highest WAR of any of the 64 first round picks. And we also have to remember that the Pohlads put spending limits on these drafts as well. The FO might have wanted to sign someone but needed to draft Revere, who signed for under slot.
I'm not quite ready to go ballistic on the Twins recent drafts. I'm still a big believer in Hicks and the Gibson pick was the right one, even with the injury risk. Last years draft was a nice haul. We've managed to grab a few underrated players later, including Rosario and Dozier in later rounds and have turned a few of our recent second round picks into ML players in trades for Cabrera and Diamond. I didn't like the Wimmers pick but smarter people than I did thought it was fine. This draft we have 5 picks in the first 75 (or so). In 07 we had 2 in the first 92, in 10 we had 2 in the first 71. Those drafts really don't tell us that much about how this draft will work.
05-09-2012, 11:00 AM #10
The scouting for pitching has seemed to be very poor of late. There is a reason everyone knew Wimmers was going to the Twins at pick 21 in 2010 despite every scout saying he was the most MLB pitcher in the draft. The other clubs new he didn't have the stuff to be and ace which is what everyone else targets in the 1st round, yet all the scouts knew the Twins cared about control, not dominance and put the selection to down in ink weeks before the draft even started.
Not to take away from the criticism of the scouting for pitchers, but overall the last 6 years have been poor for offense too. Two nights ago Dozier joined Revere as the only players drafted by the Twins since 2007 to make it to the majors. The system is flawed on so many fronts.
05-09-2012, 11:04 AM #11
05-09-2012, 11:32 AM #12
2007 - They went with Ben Revere, who skyrocketed through the system and was in the big leagues in 2010.
They had really good luck with college pitchers in 2002-2004 in Crain, Baker and Perkins, although Fox was hurt right away and took a long road to recovery. I think he's in Tacoma right now (Mariner's AAA). But they also had college pitchers in Adam Johnson and Ryan Millws in previous years and those didn't pan out.
Have high school pitchers had better success? JD Durbin dind't pan out. Neither did Scott Tyler Jay Rainville had to retire with his arm issues. Kyle Waldrop is just getting to the big leagues thanks to a 2007 surgery. Swarzak has been solid.
The hope is in guys like Bromberg who was a JC guy in 2005 and signed in 2006. BJ Hermsen was a 6th rounder. Adrian Salcedo is a an international signing, as are guys like Stuifbergen and Soliman, etc.
The other hope, as I said earlier is that Gutierrez, Gibson and Wimmers can be healthy.
05-09-2012, 01:13 PM #13
Only analyzing the Twins this thoroughly leaves out so much, though. Without comparing their success rate to that of other teams is risky business if a conclusion is to be reached. If it is true that the Twins have done worse than others (and even if they've done average or well), the next step would be to figure out why (were they bad because of bad luck with injuries or were there flags that should have or even could have been seen with the information available AT THE TIME decisions were made). Then the final step would be figuring out how to learn from or keep from repeating any mistakes and building on strengths. While this is a pretty interesting analysis, without that second step of having a relative baseline, it's hard to take those subsequent steps.
05-09-2012, 01:15 PM #14
I think that acquiring a truly impactfull starting pitcher is a lot more dependent on luck than most would like to believe. Most impactfull starters are acquired in the first round of the draft. But over a ten period (say 2001-2010) something like 150 pitchers are drafted during the first rounds of those drafts. While a good per cent will eventualy appear in the majors, how many have much of an impact?
I know people have done studies on this, but I would be surprised if you could find even 10%(15 over a 10 year period) who were very impactful and you may have to include one year wonders or guys like Mark Redman or Rick Helling, useful big leaguers but never really stars.
To get a true ace, you have to be a little lucky. Just like the Twins were with Santana. They had to have a high Rule 5 pick, the Astros had to make him available, the Twins had to be willing to keep him on the major league roster even though he didn't contribute much, they had to eventually send him to AAA were he happened to learn a change up that was a big part of his success.
There are probably a half a dozen left handers in the Twins system right now, not much different than Santana was when the Twins took him in the Rule 5 draft. About the only thing you can be sure of, is there isn't much chance that any of them will end up even half as good as Santana.
05-09-2012, 01:34 PM #15
Lohse is about as homegrown as Liriano. He came to the Twins as a minor leaguer from the Cubs in the last Aguilera trade.
As far as the "what the problem is?" (i.e. good drafting or good development) question, it is a chicken or an egg. Because you don't have a talent pipeline you don't assume it is drafting fault or development fault. Could be one or the other or both. Understood that there is a philosophical issue with the organization drafting and developing pitch to contact pitchers, shying away from wilder power arms and teaching the sinker until there is no tomorrow. IMHO, no matter what you draft, unless you realize that your pitchers are all different and try to play to individual strengths and work on weaknesses you are not going to succeed....-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
05-09-2012, 01:47 PM #16