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42 replies to this topic
Posted 26 April 2012 - 05:57 AM
Given the recent washouts of Bashore, Tootle and Hunt, due in part to injury, I'd be very leery of a college pitcher. A shame that some of these guys get over-worked in college. One reason a number of kids by-pass it for a shot in the bigs on draft day.
Posted 26 April 2012 - 06:51 AM
Cool research. I think the NFL draft skews the way people look at the baseball draft a tad. Totally different beasts. The risks with pitchers are enormous comparatively, as pointed out above. I'm not sure if this is a fair comparison, but compare Zunino and Appel/Zimmer whomever, with Montero and Pineda. Go with the guy who plays every day at a premium position, and then like every other team, hope you can find the next Roger Clemens a bit lower.
Posted 26 April 2012 - 07:13 AM
I'm hoping that the Astros take Buxton, so the Twins aren't tempted to take another 'toolsy' high school outfielder. They already have a glut of outfielders - Benson, Hicks, Morales and others. I could see taking Zunino or Correa, but depending on healing, I'm still intrigued by Giolito. He's a clone of Verlander and the Twins have a desperate need for a true ace. That being said, Appel, Zimmer and Gausman would also be good choices. With next year's projected starting rotation of Blackburn, Hendricks, and at this point I don't know (maybe Swarzak, Diamond and Gibson). They desperately need starters. 2014 looks to be the year the next crop of players comes through. But I do trust the Twins to make the right choice. Despite the busts they have drafted, they have also drafted some nice pieces in the first round - Mauer, Parmalee, Ploufe, Revere, Span, and Perkins on the current team, plus guys like Hunter and Cuddyer. They do need some scouts who can spot pitchers.
Posted 26 April 2012 - 08:19 AM
Well, I would agree with the conclusion if: a. there were more data showing the WAR of others ie. college position players, high school pitchers and high school position players, so we can compare b. Career WAR is an interesting metric for thing like HOF. WAR/season is more important and esp since a lot of the players in the list are still active So unless I see the comparisons, I cannot really say that the data support the hypothesis
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
Posted 26 April 2012 - 08:30 AM
Correct, to some degree. i agree that it isn't fair to those that are still playing which is why I mentioned the likes of Verlander and Lincecum. The per-year thing is good, but I think you also want at top pitcher to give more than 2-3 years like Prior, great as they were. And, I thought about how it would look, relative to high school pitchers or hitters or college hitters, but at the same time, I think this tells the story for college pitchers and says that as optimistic as we want to be about a college pitcher, it may should be tempered. It's not to say that drafting a high school bat is better or worse.
Posted 26 April 2012 - 08:53 AM
Don't you have to compare that to hitters, to understand which offers more likelihood of success? Half the roster is pitchers, you need 5-7 starters. If you dont' draft pitchers high EVER because they are risky, how do you ever get pitching? That's the part people can't answer...."never draft a pitcher high, because it is risky", then how do you ever get pitching?
Posted 26 April 2012 - 09:26 AM
I feel there should be one more dimension looked at - career WAR of pitchers drafted by team. Example - compare the drafting of pitchers of the Rays over the past few years compared to the Twins. EDIT: to build on that, it might show who has superior scouting in the late rounds compared to teams that aren't as good that frequently draft toward the top of the round.
Edited by edavis0308, 26 April 2012 - 09:29 AM.
Posted 26 April 2012 - 09:27 AM
I'm with shanewahl on that, if I thought they'd change their DNA and sign LEGIT MLB starter(s) in FA, or trade prospects for one or more, sure, pass on pitching all you want in the draft....but in year three of their new stadium, they cut their payroll, and didn't sign one.
Posted 26 April 2012 - 09:32 AM
I raised a similar question in my inaugural blog entry yesterday, although I came at it from the POV of wondering about all those supplemental draft picks, and took a cherry-picker's approach to demonstrate that if the draft pool is thin one year you can end up with little or nothing even with several picks just after the real first round. What you (Seth) have done is a great start, toward the question of what to do with the #2 pick, but surely there exists somewhere a set of data that carries things further: separate the draftees by HS/College and Pitcher/Position-player, and use some metric (WAR as you have done) to assess the empirical record of what has worked the best among these four combinations. Anecdotal evidence (like what I wrote yesterday, or the "for every Justin Verlander at pick #2 I can find an Adam Johnson or even Mark Prior as a cautionary example) only goes so far. Indeed probably one or more major league teams already have done exactly this and it will have colored their choices the past decade or so. Focusing on Boston, Tampa, and Oakland's picks might be very instructive - if only to show that the opportunity to set oneself apart is past.
Posted 26 April 2012 - 09:39 AM
Shane's right, there is just no other way to get a front line starter, and you need two or three of them to compete these days. The Twins will never give a pitcher more than a four year deal, and the top guys ask for double that and usually settle for between 5-7 years. The only hope for the team is to get a stud in the system, then after a season or two offer to buy out a couple arbitration years in exchange for 2 free agent years and have him locked up for the first eight years of his career.
Posted 26 April 2012 - 09:40 AM
Is this the era of the new and improved Terry Ryan? Now that he actually has some money to spend will it change his approach to creating a roster? 2013 we have 1 starting pitcher under contract. I don't see us filling out the rotation from within. How much money will be devoted to FA's? I don't think any pitcher taken in this years draft will be part of the 2013 rotation. It would be nice if we could count of Wimmers and Gibson, but they are both big question marks. I would like to see us take Zunino with the #2 overall pick and then start loading up on arms, both College or younger for the seasons 2015 on out. The starting pitchers we need from a competitive 2013 need to come from outside the organization. Whether we aquire them through trade or free agency, it's up to Ryan to find a balance between value and price we have to pay.
Posted 26 April 2012 - 10:01 AM
Believe me, I'm NOT saying DON'T take a college pitcher with the #2 pick... but like any pick (but particularly college pitchers) there is no such thing as a sure thing. As many before us have said, there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. I think of the 5 picks in the top 72, I'd like to see at least two and probably 3 pitchers taken.
Posted 26 April 2012 - 10:10 AM
Believe me, I'm NOT saying DON'T take a college pitcher with the #2 pick...
I think what's needed is to trust the scouts, and if they can say "this is the guy" you just take him. Some years that's what happens at #1, #2, #3... If it's viewed as close between a couple of guys, then you look at this kind of historical/empircal study to maybe tip the balance.
When I said I meant that literally and not as just a figure of speech, that was just a figure of speech. I didn't mean it literally.
Posted 26 April 2012 - 10:31 AM
Mike wants wins makes the exact same point I would - if you don't take a chance on a strikeout pitcher because it may be risky then you will never have any. Based on where the current strategy for building a pitching staff has gotten them, I so hope that they not only pick a hard throwing starter with number 2 but that they pick several more. And then do the same every year.
Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:05 AM
min55441...they had money to do that this year, and didn't. So, I see no evidence Ryan is a changed man. Which makes me sad, because I think they have a nice core with Mauer, Morneau, Span, Willingham...but once again, they've surrounded them with yuckiness.