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Article: Out of Answers

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#61 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 08:53 PM

Fewer than 50 innings is the norm, and the preceding 5 years, 2 in the majors, were the aberration? Maybe it's the new norm if his arm is still screwed up, but otherwise... really?

If you look past the shiny ERA, you see shiny (for the Twins) FIPs and xFIPs, BABIP fortune that evens out to average or so, and K/BB and HR rates that should allow a pitcher to sustain a 4ish ERA most of the time.

Worley's chance of continued success in a major league rotation took another hit last year, after the 2012 arm problem dealt the first one. And there's no clear place to put him. But for a franchise that blocked half of its top four rotation spots for KC and Pelf again, discarding Worley looks like it might be another sign that a franchise that has been one of the worst in MLB at figuring out starting pitching has failed yet again.

Except that all of those metrics were aided by his unsustainable strike 3 looking rate.
You didnt find it the least bit interesting that a team that values SP as much as the Phillies do would just "throw in" Worley in that trade if they didn't see this coming?

#62 cmathewson


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Posted 19 March 2014 - 08:58 PM

The problem the Twins have is that he does have upside. He has proven major league ability. But can it be tapped again? We could stash him in the bullpen for a while, using him only in low stress situations like mopping up forgone losses, and maybe he could find himself before we get to the point in May where bullpen depth becomes critical. The DL possibility someone proposed could work.

He has no upside. The Twins are just hoping he captures the magic from 2011. That was 3 years ago. Not worth thinking about. He's done, at least until he can learn another pitxh.
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#63 LaBombo


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Posted 19 March 2014 - 09:13 PM

Would one good game actually change anything? Pitchers are stacking-up in the system

Of course one good game can change anything. It's the Twins. Scouting trumps spring training trumps anything with numbers in it. But if you feel that the Twins organization is suffering from a glut of effective starter candidates, well, optimism is pretty cool, but...?

#64 Riverbrian


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Posted 19 March 2014 - 10:10 PM

He has no upside. The Twins are just hoping he captures the magic from 2011. That was 3 years ago. Not worth thinking about. He's done, at least until he can learn another pitxh.

I think that is a good observation. Worley needs another MLB pitch. He ain't mixing things up.
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#65 darin617


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Posted 19 March 2014 - 10:22 PM

Toronto would claim him. Just like the last couple of seasons they claim almost everyone and try to slip them through waivers to the minors.

#66 twinsnorth49


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Posted 19 March 2014 - 10:47 PM

I don't see how they give him another start, he's been just abysmal. Time to waive him and give all remaining innings to guys who at least have a chance of coming North.

I also don't see much of a future for Vanimal with the Twins except as a possible long shot middle reliever if he halfway gets his act together in AAA.

#67 Jimmy12120


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Posted 20 March 2014 - 09:14 AM

I haven't been a fan of Worley since we first saw him with the twins last spring, but we are in an interesting situation when it comes to pitching depth. We lost a number of almost major league ready pitchers, some with a lot of potential. First, we lost Liam Hendricks, which was great since fans were tired of seeing him get more chances. We lost nick Blackburn, which was great since he was one of our higher paid pitchers last year and pretty much never pitched. We lost Pedro Hernandez who showed promise sometimes. We lost P.J. Walters who many forget came up with Scott Diamond in 2012 and sparked that good stretch in June and July before going on the dl. He was also the first pitcher that year to throw a compete game. We lost Andrew Albers, but idk if he would ever be good on the major league level. Lastly we lost Cole Devries to free agency. devries had a phenomenal spring in 2013 before getting injured and didn't do too bad in his rookie year. I think he had a lot of potential. Now or triple A team will have a bunch of players promoted from double A, and Vance Worley. Im glad the twins front office got us some starting pitching, but i think we lost some good stuff. The worst part is that we only got compensated for Andrew Albers...

#68 spycake


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Posted 20 March 2014 - 09:38 AM

It should be noted that Worley was never a top prospect. 3rd round pick reached the majors quickly, but his 2011 MLB K rate (and general effectiveness) was actually quite a jump from anything he had done before or since. He was still useful overall in 2012, though, and it certainly doesn't explain his absolute crash the past year, but there is some precedent for volatility in his performance.

He and May were two projects when acquired, and probably necessary given the state of Twins pitching at the time. The Twins counted on Worley a little too much last year, and neither guy is working out as hoped so far, but that's not exactly unprecedented for pitching projects. Hopefully the trend reverses soon with our other acquisitions/promotions.

#69 tobi0040


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Posted 20 March 2014 - 09:55 AM

I think that is a good observation. Worley needs another MLB pitch. He ain't mixing things up.

Yeah, at a minimum he needs another pitch. These guys with an 89 mph fastball that doesn't move have no margin for error.

#70 Sconnie


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Posted 20 March 2014 - 05:20 PM

That's funny and you are probably right. Thing is if he has two good outings I don't think that should be enough for him to go north but it might be enough to keep him from passing through waivers. By the way, this is in response to a prior poster but I was completely kidding about asking him to tank his next game. Best result for the Twins is if he passes waivers and goes to the minors. That's the gut check. If he earns his way back then I tip my cap to him and hope he does well but that is the way it should be done. If he fails then we would rather him do it at the minor league level and that is just the nature of the game.

Sorry I missed the joke. I think you're right, it would only take a good start or two for a pitching needy team to claim hm.

#71 ashburyjohn


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Posted 20 March 2014 - 05:24 PM

Sorry I missed the joke. I think you're right, it would only take a good start or two for a pitching needy team to

... not waive him. :)

#72 YourHouseIsMyHouse


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Posted 20 March 2014 - 08:30 PM

It is crazy that he is only a month older than Kyle Gibson. That makes it hard to just write him off. Hopefully he can make it through waivers and land in Rochester. I wouldn't hold my breath on him turning it around but it's not impossible to envision him in St. Louis starting a playoff games in 2 years.

Gibson ain't no spring chicken either. He's pretty old and despite his limited opportunities, his window is closing soon too.

Anyway last spot between Deduno, Diamond, and Gibson. Diamond has been awful and Gibson has an option I believe. It's Deduno's (who's been fantastic in ST) to lose.

Edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse, 20 March 2014 - 08:37 PM.