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#41 Riverbrian

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 12:32 PM

I'm a strange guy... There is no doubt about that.

I seem to be a little off kilter because I simply refuse to get worked up over players that I know nothing about.

I was bummed over Bonofacio because I know who he is... I've seen him.

Diaz... I have no idea... Reading a scouting report from someone who probably got his scouting report from someone else... means very little to me. Especially when I know nothing about the evaluators involved.

I continue to trust... That if the Twins scouting staff likes him... They would have made a competitive offer. Same goes for the other 28 teams. The Cards liked him at X amount and the player liked the Cards at X amount.

Did the Twins like him at Y amount or did the Twins not like him at all??? I don't know.

I'm really gonna try hard to not get worked up over not signing some guy that I've never seen to form my own opinion on.

Same goes for our current farm evaluations. I'm reading that the Twins have the top farm system. I read that and I feel great about it... But I won't feel totally wonderful until those great talents on the farm produce at the MLB level for my own eyes.
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#42 jokin

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 01:31 PM

I'm a strange guy... There is no doubt about that.

I seem to be a little off kilter because I simply refuse to get worked up over players that I know nothing about.

I was bummed over Bonofacio because I know who he is... I've seen him.

Diaz... I have no idea... Reading a scouting report from someone who probably got his scouting report from someone else... means very little to me. Especially when I know nothing about the evaluators involved.

I continue to trust... That if the Twins scouting staff likes him... They would have made a competitive offer. Same goes for the other 28 teams. The Cards liked him at X amount and the player liked the Cards at X amount.

Did the Twins like him at Y amount or did the Twins not like him at all??? I don't know.

I'm really gonna try hard to not get worked up over not signing some guy that I've never seen to form my own opinion on.

Same goes for our current farm evaluations. I'm reading that the Twins have the top farm system. I read that and I feel great about it... But I won't feel totally wonderful until those great talents on the farm produce at the MLB level for my own eyes.


Same with me. That's why I put a lot of trust in successful organizations when they make personnel decisions where all of the facts are sketchy, even when they don't have to do so. The Cards made a concerted effort to learn about the state of Cuban baseball and Diaz particularly- the modest outlay for acquiring the potential, but undetermined, major league ready talent that Diaz represetns, seems like exactly the type of deal that should have fit the Twins MO. (And I seem to remember that last fall the Twins were alleged to have said that the price for Diaz was too high).

#43 The Wise One

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 03:25 PM

Yet for all of the wisdom of St. Louis, their last 30 first round draft picks have produced only 1 player of 10 career bwar. Wong, Miller, Wacha and Lynn may have fine careers, but it has not happened yet.
I find it a little hard to get excited that someone signed a player to a 8 million contract that has not really played in a league rated above AA that did not crush in that league. It is still anybody's guess as to what will happen.

Edited by The Wise One, 11 March 2014 - 03:34 PM.


#44 Winston Smith

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 03:35 PM

Yet for all of the wisdom of St. Louis, their last 30 first round draft picks have produced only 1 player of 10 career bwar. I find it a little hard to get excited that someone signed a player to a 20 million contract that has not really played in a league rated above AA that did not crush in that league.


Well the same excuse I see used for the Twins applies that they have been drafting late in the first round every year.

Look at it this way. The last Twin playoff win was 10 years ago 2004. In the last ten years the Cards have 52 wins, 4 trips to the world series and 2 world series titles.

I'll take the Cards wisdom any day! That was the point I made before, if they sign a guy it is likely for a good reason. They may not draft well in the first round but they are clearly doing something right.

May all our prospects be All Stars and the beer be free.


#45 jokin

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 03:50 PM

Yet for all of the wisdom of St. Louis, their last 30 first round draft picks have produced only 1 player of 10 career bwar. Wong, Miller, Wacha and Lynn may have fine careers, but it has not happened yet.
I find it a little hard to get excited that someone signed a player to a 8 million contract that has not really played in a league rated above AA that did not crush in that league. It is still anybody's guess as to what will happen.


$8M to play in this type of game for talent-acquisition is barely a rounding error. Good risk-reward ratio.

#46 jokin

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 03:51 PM

Well the same excuse I see used for the Twins applies that they have been drafting late in the first round every year.

Look at it this way. The last Twin playoff win was 10 years ago 2004. In the last ten years the Cards have 52 wins, 4 trips to the world series and 2 world series titles.

I'll take the Cards wisdom any day! That was the point I made before, if they sign a guy it is likely for a good reason. They may not draft well in the first round but they are clearly doing something right.


Hard to refute when you provide the damning evidence, Winston.

#47 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 05:25 PM

Well the same excuse I see used for the Twins applies that they have been drafting late in the first round every year.

Look at it this way. The last Twin playoff win was 10 years ago 2004. In the last ten years the Cards have 52 wins, 4 trips to the world series and 2 world series titles.

I'll take the Cards wisdom any day! That was the point I made before, if they sign a guy it is likely for a good reason. They may not draft well in the first round but they are clearly doing something right.


Compared to what his countrymen are getting, it looks like dumpster diving to me.

#48 Thrylos

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 06:20 PM

$8M to play in this type of game for talent-acquisition is barely a rounding error. Good risk-reward ratio.


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#49 The Wise One

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 07:30 PM

The point was just because the Cardinals signed this player does not make it a great signing. If they were confident in their first round picks Wong and Korzma they might not have signed him.
The point on the first round drafting is that this talent savvy organization missed on so many draft picks. Not even serviceable players. The Twins record over the same period is similar.

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 07:48 PM

The point was just because the Cardinals signed this player does not make it a great signing. If they were confident in their first round picks Wong and Korzma they might not have signed him. The point on the first round drafting is that this talent savvy organization missed on so many draft picks. Not even serviceable players. The Twins record over the same period is similar.

Another point might be the Cards make it a point to add talent to the organization through other means as well as the draft. That way the inevitable misses in the draft aren't necessarily as damaging to the big league team. If you depend mostly on the draft to supply all the front line talent you need for sustained success, there's a good chance you're going to experience some long dry spells.

#51 thetank

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Posted 11 March 2014 - 07:56 PM

The point was just because the Cardinals signed this player does not make it a great signing. If they were confident in their first round picks Wong and Korzma they might not have signed him.
The point on the first round drafting is that this talent savvy organization missed on so many draft picks. Not even serviceable players. The Twins record over the same period is similar.

The 2009 draft is a major contributor for the Cardinals with 5 key players on the current team. Before this time the Cards team was built on getting veterans like Rolen, Edmonds and Chris carpenter and getting lucky drafting Pujols in the late rounds as well as Molina. Few bad trades and no real bad long term contracts has aided the team while it rebuilds and still wins.

#52 The Wise One

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 04:48 AM

Another point might be the Cards make it a point to add talent to the organization through other means as well as the draft. That way the inevitable misses in the draft aren't necessarily as damaging to the big league team. If you depend mostly on the draft to supply all the front line talent you need for sustained success, there's a good chance you're going to experience some long dry spells.


All you post may be all well and true. It still does not change the fact that just because the Cardinals signed him it was a good signing. That was the claim that was made. "Based on the fact that it's the Cardinals, with 6 or 7 other teams hot on his trail with offers," and "St Louis doesn't make a lot of mistakes and I would trust them over the Twins front office and most bloggers. Likely to turn out being a good signing. "

Those two posts ignore facts. Like every other team, St Louis has more misses than hits. Because St Louis signs someone does not mean they might be a good player. There is a lot unknown about the Cuban players. One of those unkowns is how good they actually are. Yadil Mujica had better stats as an infielder in Cuba than Diaz and has not been able to crack a major league team. Perhaps had he not broke his leg jumping on home plate Morales would have been a superstar. Chapmaan has had success. There is not a lot of susstained star power out of Cuba. The smart people figure out the holes in the player's game. See Cespedes' OPS year 2. As compared to the Dominican, there really hasn't been a lot of average players come out of Cuba, either.

#53 kab21

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 08:48 AM

I think they should spend all the money they can to get better. I have no idea how to choose a 16 year old. Justifying that they are spending the most money they can by arguing that signing guys that are less expensive shows they are spending the most money they can seems off to me. The Cubs and others are going over their allottment to sign lots of the top guys, not just one. We don't have perfect information, we can only go by what the rankers say about these 16 year olds. And, they say that other teams are spending more money to buy more of the top ranked guys.

You clearly are accepting of their approach to get better. I clearly am not. Not sure why that bothers you and birdwatcher so much, that people disagree with you.


I actually like signing Diaz for 8M. I think that is a fair risk/reward for a prospect that is fringy top 100. The problem I have with the rest of your post is that you seem willing to spend an unlimited amount for any level of talent. As comparisons Alex Guerrero signed for 25-30M but it sounds like he's a better hitter but stuck at 2B. Arreubuenna (sp?) signed for a similar amount and isn't expected to hit at all. Spending just for the sake of spending is a poor strategy.

In addition to that there is a limit to what the Cubs and Rangers can do in international FA. They blew away their budgets last but they are basically completely out except for maybe one 500K (I think smaller) signing. There are consequences (not enough) to exceeding the budget.

I think it's almost hilarious how critical some are of a team that has completely changed their international focus. Before Sano it would have been completely unheard of to sign a 1M+ dominican much less sign several other 300-600K guys in one offseason. the Twins aren't the biggest spenders and never will be but they are at least in the mix in int'l FA.

I look forward to the day that a pitching prospect is truly blocked by good pitchers.


#54 biggentleben

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 12:12 PM

Remember that the Cubs and Rangers acquired most of that extra money. They didn't end up in the penalty (unless their numbers ended up higher than was initially reported) because they made a number of deals for IFA slot money.
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#55 mike wants wins

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 01:52 PM

I'm guessing that is hyperbole when you say I am for spending any amount of money for any level of talent......

The Twins spend within the new spending limits set aside for Int'l signings. They aren't even close to spending "a lot" on it at all since those limits went into effect. Compared to their revenue, it is a rounding error. They do not take advantage of their currently lower MLB payroll to buy Cubans when they are available. That is, of course, their perogative. I think it also mine as a fan to question that logic.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#56 kab21

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 06:42 PM

I'm guessing that is hyperbole when you say I am for spending any amount of money for any level of talent......

The Twins spend within the new spending limits set aside for Int'l signings. They aren't even close to spending "a lot" on it at all since those limits went into effect. Compared to their revenue, it is a rounding error. They do not take advantage of their currently lower MLB payroll to buy Cubans when they are available. That is, of course, their perogative. I think it also mine as a fan to question that logic.


Are the Cubans a decent value at all though? Start naming names of recent signings.

Alex guerrero? I liked this signing since I think he can hit but since he is probably limited to 2B this board was against it simply because the Twins have Dozier and Rosario.

Arrebuena, Iglesias and Hechavaria can't hit but are defensive whiz's. Pass.

the 3 toolsy OF'ers from 2-3 yrs ago? I liked signing Soler but again the board (or BYTO) basically went nuts against it because the Twins have so much MiLB OF depth. Puig has taken everyone by surprise and at the time nearly everyone thought the Dodgers had way overpaid.

Abreu? 60+M for an unproven 1Bman with question marks.

Any pitchers? Aside from Gonzalez (Phils) they barely sounded like MLB caliber RP'ers since Chapman defected.

Your complaint is exactly what I said it was. You don't care about the player as long as the Twins spend silly money to satisfy you. The Cubans that have recently come to the US haven't been great values unless they hit their upside. The one recurring theme though is that if you sign one of these cubans then you won't be able to pick a position of need. I actually think that is a poor argument to not sign a player since the important thing is to add talent to the org and worry about where to play players when you actually have too many good ones.

I look forward to the day that a pitching prospect is truly blocked by good pitchers.


#57 kab21

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 06:44 PM

Remember that the Cubs and Rangers acquired most of that extra money. They didn't end up in the penalty (unless their numbers ended up higher than was initially reported) because they made a number of deals for IFA slot money.


They made deals and acquired extra money but they didn't acquire that much extra money. It's pretty clear that the new CBA didn't include harsh enough penalties for taking this route.

http://www.bleachern...agent-spending/

I look forward to the day that a pitching prospect is truly blocked by good pitchers.


#58 The Wise One

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 03:44 AM

They made deals and acquired extra money but they didn't acquire that much extra money. It's pretty clear that the new CBA didn't include harsh enough penalties for taking this route.

http://www.bleachern...agent-spending/


What of this year when te can not spend more than $250,000 for a prospect? Essentially no top prospets for 2014 out of the international market. That is a setback for sining a few more players

#59 biggentleben

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 07:02 AM

They made deals and acquired extra money but they didn't acquire that much extra money. It's pretty clear that the new CBA didn't include harsh enough penalties for taking this route.

http://www.bleachern...agent-spending/


They went above after my last view of their status. That's still a pretty steep penalty considering where they are in pool allotment this year. The Rangers would be a different story as their pool allotment will be much smaller.
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#60 kab21

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 09:05 AM

What of this year when te can not spend more than $250,000 for a prospect? Essentially no top prospets for 2014 out of the international market. That is a setback for sining a few more players


It's a setback but it clearly didn't deter them or the Rangers. The Yankees are publicly saying 4 months before signing even begins that they will spend 10-14M which if they actually spend should net them 6-10 of the top prospects.

As it is the Cubs signed 4 of the top 30 prospects while forfeiting the next signing period when they probably would have only signed 1-2 if they played by the rules. Additionally the Cubs can still trade most of their signing allowance this year netting them even more prospects.

compare this to the MLB draft where the penalties quickly escalate to losing multiple 1st rd draft picks for a similar action.

I look forward to the day that a pitching prospect is truly blocked by good pitchers.