Too many ifs, all with a high potential to turn into whiffs. Give me the gold-plated major leaguer option every time. And as you both say, a chance to get one of the gold-platers at a discount doesn't hamstring the chances for Meyer and Gibson to blossom in to the rotation one iota.
Agreed. His numbers are better than anyone that we have. Even the most pessimistic view of Santana and optimistic view of Nolasco, Hughes, and Meyer has him as our 3rd or 4th best pitcher. In three of the last four years he would have been our best or second best pitcher. Last year he would have been hands down our best at a 3.24 ERA.
I think 3/33 or a 3/33 plus 4th year that vests based on innings will be a steal. Even if he has his one clunker year, the 3.50 ERA he may put up the other three years will be a huge discount based on like pitchers. Verlander, Felix, Scherzer, etc. make or will make $25+ million a year. I am not putting Ervin in that camp, but what you may get in 3 of the 4 years at $11M looks very nice compared to what those guys will make.
Looking at the last three years. Santana's 2011 (3.38) was better than Scherzer (4.43) and Felix (3.47). Santana's 2013 (3.24) was better than Verlanders (3.74)
Edited by tobi0040, 11 March 2014 - 01:28 PM.