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Heyman: The Twins made a 3-year offer to Ervin Santana

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#31 jokin

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 08:06 PM

He's a good pitcher and a good target, but at this point the Twins are starting to create roster issues now and going forward out of desperation.


It is said that necessity is the mother of invention. But desperation is also a great motivator and has been described as the mother of creativity. Thus the Twins have gone to the ends of the Earth- to Europe and Australia, and combed the Indy Leagues, and kicked tires on the reclamation projects- both major and minor league- looking for cut-rate arms that can servicably cut the mustard on the worst starting pitching staff in baseball over the last 3 years. At least TR's desperation hasn't dug the Twins any holes that they cannot extricate themselves from.

Benjamin Disraeli has another aspect to the value of desperation:

"'Desperation is sometimes as powerful an inspirer as genius."

I think the evidence of the pursuit of Nolasco, Hughes, Garza and now Santana, tells me that Ryan holds little assurances that most of the present in-house SP resources hold much to offer over the next 2-3 years. In which case, if true, I'm all for the "inspiration of desperation" to get this club out the rut in how they have assessed, trained, developed and valued their recent pitching options.

#32 TheLeviathan

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 08:30 PM

At some point adding guaranteed contracts and 40 man spots starts to work against a rebuild too. Had this been Santana over Pelfrey - hell yeah. But what are they going to do? Have Saunders and Santana join and do a 7 man rotation? You reach a threshold at which point "more" no longer helps enough to warrant the commitment. I think, for 2014, we're there for SP.

#33 ashburyjohn

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 09:35 PM

At some point adding guaranteed contracts and 40 man spots starts to work against a rebuild too.


Doesn't the example you raised earlier of Blackburn counteract this concern? If you find you have an excess resource, you pick the one performing most poorly, try to trade him, then waive/DFA him and hope someone picks up the contract, and at worst you have waivers and you just demote him to AAA and eat the contract and keep him stashed for an emergency.

If the Twins were strapped for cash, it would be different. But how did Nick Blackburn's contract impede anything the past two years, or how would (pick a name, let's say Hughes)'s untradeable contract for 3 years impede the rebuild now?

#34 TheLeviathan

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 09:39 PM

Doesn't the example you raised earlier of Blackburn counteract this concern? If you find you have an excess resource, you pick the one performing most poorly, try to trade him, then waive/DFA him and hope someone picks up the contract, and at worst you have waivers and you just demote him to AAA and eat the contract and keep him stashed for an emergency.

If the Twins were strapped for cash, it would be different. But how did Nick Blackburn's contract impede anything the past two years, or how would (pick a name, let's say Hughes)'s untradeable contract for 3 years impede the rebuild now?


Wasn't Blackburn still a misuse of resources? I'm not saying Santana necessarily pushes it over, but at some point you aren't allocating resources effectively any more. Having 4 guys under contract for several years into the future does create this potential risk and it does create a backlog of available positions.

Afterall, it wasn't like we said "Blackburn's bad, let's stop starting him" - we gave him almost 20 starts at a near 7 ERA!!!

#35 kab21

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 09:40 PM

Why are the names of Santana, Saunders, Pelfrey and Blackburn used in the same sentences? Right now adding depth doesn't do anything for the Twins rotation. Adding a pitcher that is better than every other starter (only Nolasco is close) would be a good get for this club.

#36 TheLeviathan

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 09:44 PM

Why are the names of Santana, Saunders, Pelfrey and Blackburn used in the same sentences? Right now adding depth doesn't do anything for the Twins rotation. Adding a pitcher that is better than every other starter (only Nolasco is close) would be a good get for this club.


I mentioned Saunders because reports are that the Twins are asking about him too. So it's not like they are just targeting a good SP here, they're still targeting SP in general.

Blackburn is involved because there seems to be a flippant belief that you can just trade anyone you want as soon as they aren't a fit anymore. That's not always the case.

#37 kab21

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 09:48 PM

And I would be against any moves for mediocre starters with Corriea/Pelfrey upside. Santana would step in as the Twins best starter and I'm in favor of that for the relative bargain that is possible.

#38 TheLeviathan

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 09:50 PM

And I would be against any moves for mediocre starters with Corriea/Pelfrey upside. Santana would step in as the Twins best starter and I'm in favor of that for the relative bargain that is possible.


I'd have been much more ok with it if we didn't have the marginal/mediocre guys already signed. As I said, if you want to hand away a draft pick and some money - why not help the offense instead at this point? Seems like the wrong allocation of resources to me.

#39 ashburyjohn

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 10:00 PM

Afterall, it wasn't like we said "Blackburn's bad, let's stop starting him" - we gave him almost 20 starts at a near 7 ERA!!!


... on a team destined to win only 66, after having won 63 the year before. The dynamics then don't give much guidance on how the roster would be managed when it matters.

The very worst case is that a (25-man, 40-man) roster problem, if any, is solvable with money. The Twins have this luxury for the coming several seasons.

#40 Kwak

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 10:01 PM

Sort of a non sequitur, but does anyone else find it unusual that the Twins are publicizing offers of contracts to free-agents that didn't sign with the Twins?

#41 TheLeviathan

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 10:03 PM

The very worst case is that a (25-man, 40-man) roster problem, if any, is solvable with money. The Twins have this luxury for the coming several seasons.


Possibly, but we have seen roster moves by this team in the past that overlook youth for veterans. So I'm not as confident.

#42 jokin

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 10:37 PM

Sort of a non sequitur, but does anyone else find it unusual that the Twins are publicizing offers of contracts to free-agents that didn't sign with the Twins?


Unusual? No.
Suspicious? Yes.

#43 PseudoSABR

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 10:44 PM

Jesus, the commitment to Correria and Pelfry is one and two years respectively (at worse they are short-term overpaid bullpen parts, Pelfry in particular might look good there), there's plenty of room for Santana if the Twins' brass feels it's appropriate.

#44 Oxtung

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 12:11 AM

At some point adding guaranteed contracts and 40 man spots starts to work against a rebuild too. Had this been Santana over Pelfrey - hell yeah. But what are they going to do? Have Saunders and Santana join and do a 7 man rotation? You reach a threshold at which point "more" no longer helps enough to warrant the commitment. I think, for 2014, we're there for SP.


I agree that Pelfrey was a bad decision but he is here now and there is nothing to be done about it. So let's look at this another way. Who would you rather have for the next 3 seasons? Deduno/Worley/Diamond or Santana? Keep in mind that Deduno and Santana are the same age. That's a pretty easy question for me to answer.

#45 Oxtung

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 12:13 AM

In 2 years you have a rotation that could look like this
1. Meyer
2. Santana
3. Nolasco
4. Berrios
5. Hughes/May



and for the record, I love this rotation too.. especially if Gibson is in there..


Love seems a bit strong. At best that is a league average rotation. Whatever Meyer turns out to be with 4 guys that we hope will be mid-rotation starters. We'd better have one hell of an offense if we're hoping to compete.

#46 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 06:36 AM

I mentioned Saunders because reports are that the Twins are asking about him too. So it's not like they are just targeting a good SP here, they're still targeting SP in general.

Blackburn is involved because there seems to be a flippant belief that you can just trade anyone you want as soon as they aren't a fit anymore. That's not always the case.


To be fair, I believe the Twins' interest in Saunders was described as "incredibly mild". From the report it sounded like a phone call, nothing more.

#47 ppearson50

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 06:41 AM

Jesus, the commitment to Correria and Pelfry is one and two years respectively (at worse they are short-term overpaid bullpen parts, Pelfry in particular might look good there), there's plenty of room for Santana if the Twins' brass feels it's appropriate.



Santana, Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey and Correia is about the most solid rotation we have had in years. Slot Deduno into the extra starter/5th and 6th inning man and I think we can compete in this division if we get any offense at all.

#48 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 06:47 AM

Sort of a non sequitur, but does anyone else find it unusual that the Twins are publicizing offers of contracts to free-agents that didn't sign with the Twins?


No, because we don't know if the source of the information is with the Twins. Santana and his agent have the most to gain by publicizing offers, especially in mid-March as desperation sets in to get him on the field.

#49 oldguy10

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 06:48 AM

"any offense at all" is the problem, I see no improvement from 2013 in that area, none. Perhaps by mid-summer I can put my rose-colored glasses on again but I doubt it.

#50 tobi0040

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 07:23 AM

Unusual? No.
Suspicious? Yes.


That is a good point. It would seem a PR effort is underway.

I agree with the sentiment that this signing would mean Correa pitches for someone else when the season starts. In which case, I think signing Santana on a reasonable, suppressed deal makes sense.

You also have to wonder what kind of advice his agent is giving him. Taking a one year deal could be very risky for a guy with these up and down numbers:

2005 - 2013:
4.65, 4.28, 5.76, 3.49, 5.03, 3.92, 3.38, 5.16, 3.24

#51 cmathewson

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 07:25 AM

"any offense at all" is the problem, I see no improvement from 2013 in that area, none. Perhaps by mid-summer I can put my rose-colored glasses on again but I doubt it.


Willingham was hurt for much of last year. Mauer was hurt for six weeks. It is unlikely both will be injured as much this year. Also, Arcia was not with the team for much of the year. Dozier started off very slow and turned a corner in June. That's four reasons for optimism. It's not a lot, but "none" is a bit strong.
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#52 birdwatcher

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 07:44 AM

Sort of a non sequitur, but does anyone else find it unusual that the Twins are publicizing offers of contracts to free-agents that didn't sign with the Twins?


You know, if the Twins actually WERE guilty of publicizing offers of contracts to free agents that didn't sign with them, how would that make them look? Sleasy and dishonest, right?

What's exasperating about a post like this, kwak, is that it's not factual and it's patently unfair.

To even suspect the team of something like this is cynical.

#53 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 07:45 AM

Willingham was hurt for much of last year. Mauer was hurt for six weeks. It is unlikely both will be injured as much this year. Also, Arcia was not with the team for much of the year. Dozier started off very slow and turned a corner in June. That's four reasons for optimism. It's not a lot, but "none" is a bit strong.


As Levi has pointed out multiple times, the Mauer injury was a non-issue because he was replaced by Pinto, who absolutely raked for those six weeks.

It's unlikely that Pinto will continue that torrid hitting streak in 2014.

But a rebound from Willingham and advancement of Arcia are pretty good bets. Some of that will be offset by the "loss" of Doumit, though... Overall, it's hard to see this offense improve significantly unless we see breakouts from Plouffe, Parmelee, and Hicks.

#54 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 07:47 AM

You know, if the Twins actually WERE guilty of publicizing offers of contracts to free agents that didn't sign with them, how would that make them look? Sleasy and dishonest, right?

What's exasperating about a post like this, kwak, is that it's not factual and it's patently unfair.

To even suspect the team of something like this is cynical.


More to the point, we don't know that the information was sourced from the Twins.

In all likelihood, this source stemmed from the Santana camp because they have the motivation to release information about contract offers.

#55 JB_Iowa

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 07:51 AM

This is the first time I've seen a number. According to this report, the Twins' offer was about 3 years/$30 million to $33 million.

http://msn.foxsports...-no-lock-030914




That seems conservative to me. Assuming Santana believes he will be healthy, I don't know why he wouldn't go with one of the 1-year offers.

#56 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 07:54 AM

This would be a great signing for the Twins, you instantly go from having the worst rotation in baseball to one that could honestly be a top one in a year or so if Meyer reaches his potential.

Sign Santana and Drew and call it an off-season! 85 wins, here we come!
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#57 cmathewson

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 07:58 AM

As Levi has pointed out multiple times, the Mauer injury was a non-issue because he was replaced by Pinto, who absolutely raked for those six weeks.

It's unlikely that Pinto will continue that torrid hitting streak in 2014.

But a rebound from Willingham and advancement of Arcia are pretty good bets. Some of that will be offset by the "loss" of Doumit, though... Overall, it's hard to see this offense improve significantly unless we see breakouts from Plouffe, Parmelee, and Hicks.


Doumit is no great loss. Odds are pretty good they'll get better production out of those 538 PAs.
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#58 tobi0040

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 07:59 AM

That seems conservative to me. Assuming Santana believes he will be healthy, I don't know why he wouldn't go with one of the 1-year offers.


If you look at his nine year career, he has had an ERA over 5.00 in three years. Two additional years he has had an ERA that in the mid 4's. He has a good shot at hurting his stock after another year. I would back up the truck and take as much cash as I could.

#59 mike wants wins

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 08:00 AM

I'd sign them both, if you sign one...sign the other.

If they do sign Santana, we can only hope Gibson looks great, and is turned into a SS or C or something. Would you trade Gibson to Houston for their catcher, for example?

I would do this under the assumption that Meyer will be ready this year, and others in 2-3 years.
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#60 cmathewson

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Posted 10 March 2014 - 08:02 AM

More to the point, we don't know that the information was sourced from the Twins.

In all likelihood, this source stemmed from the Santana camp because they have the motivation to release information about contract offers.


The Twins have a strict policy to not reveal this information until all is said and done. They have reported that they made offers to people like Garza. But only after he signed elsewhere. As you said, the agent has a vested interest in reporting these things. Some agents manufacture "offers". That is the reason I am skeptical, but this one seems specific enough to be credible.
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