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B.J. Hermsen

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#21 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 11:45 AM

I have come to hope that BJ equals out to a Tommy Milone of OAK. He's got a 3.68ERA w/average fastball of 87.8 (per fangraphs) BJ is only 22 & gonna be added to 40 man this winter (or lost IMO). Milone dominated High A at age 22, AA @ 23, AAA @ 24 before his MLB debut/dealt to A's. He did have a K/9 of 6 in A/AA but they can be comparable as Hermsens K rate in FTM was 5.8 & he's a younger pitcher in AA than Milone was. BJ finished his 5 July starts with 4W 1L 2.30ERA w/ 31.1IP 29h .236BAA 21k (impoving) 9bb

#22 DPJ

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 02:27 PM

I just see no way BJ can succeed with that Blackburn-esqe K-rate and lack of groundballs.

#23 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 01 August 2012 - 03:15 PM

The guy is only 22 & having very good success. There are soft tossing guys in the majors who have success (I like Tommy Milone as a guy to compare)....if he wasnt having this type of success at an early age (22), Id be more pesimistic

#24 DPJ

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Posted 03 August 2012 - 07:52 AM

The guy is only 22 & having very good success. There are soft tossing guys in the majors who have success (I like Tommy Milone as a guy to compare)....if he wasnt having this type of success at an early age (22), Id be more pesimistic


Milone averaged 8 K/9 in the minors and is at a respectable 6.5 in the majors. Hermsen is 4.9 K/9 at AA and will only get worse if he gets to the majors.

#25 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 05 August 2012 - 02:08 PM

The 22 yr old Hermsen & his 84/85mph fastball matched up SUN against last yrs #1 overall pick, 21 yr old Gerritt Cole & his 96/97mph fastball. BJ 6IP 4h 3er 1bb 0k Cole 4.2 IP 3h 2er 2bb 5k.....rock cats scored 5 in bottom of 5th Hermsen left with a 6-3 lead

#26 wdhawks3

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 07:56 PM

DPJ-Who cares about his K rate? He is 10-5 this year. He wins. Gets ground balls and can pitch. 12 ground outs to 3 fly outs in his last outing. His velocity has come back up. He has been at the 89-91 range lately. If you are really a Twins fan, you would be excited about having a 22 year old kid on the mound who knows how to win. He is a pitcher in every sense of the word. If you want a thrower, go find one. I see 95 mph fastballs leave the park every night. Give me a proven winner anyday.

Edited by wdhawks3, 07 August 2012 - 08:05 PM.


#27 drjim

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 08:11 PM

DPJ-Who cares about his K rate? He is 10-5 this year. He wins. Gets ground balls and can pitch. 12 ground outs to 3 fly outs in his last outing. His velocity has come back up. He has been at the 89-91 range lately. If you are really a Twins fan, you would be excited about having a 22 year old kid on the mound who knows how to win. He is a pitcher in every sense of the word. If you want a thrower, go find one. I see 95 mph fastballs leave the park every night. Give me a proven winner anyday.


Troll?
Papers...business papers.

#28 rickyhawaii

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 08:54 PM

If Hermsen knows how to win let him quarterback the Vikings

#29 Celebrity Weddings!

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Posted 07 August 2012 - 09:02 PM

I'm surprised at his GB% this season. When I saw him last week, Bowie had an impossible time elevating the ball against him. At the very least, it seems like a skill that's well in progress. He also sat 89-91 all game, so the reports of a well below average fastball seem a big exaggerated.

#30 DPJ

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 06:32 AM

DPJ-Who cares about his K rate? He is 10-5 this year. He wins. Gets ground balls and can pitch. 12 ground outs to 3 fly outs in his last outing. His velocity has come back up. He has been at the 89-91 range lately. If you are really a Twins fan, you would be excited about having a 22 year old kid on the mound who knows how to win. He is a pitcher in every sense of the word. If you want a thrower, go find one. I see 95 mph fastballs leave the park every night. Give me a proven winner anyday.


Hmmm...I don't really know what to do with this?

#31 old nurse

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 07:01 AM

Hmmm...I don't really know what to do with this?


Say that he might be a good 4-5 starter? That is the usual way it is done when someone changes their stance on a pitcher they do not like.

#32 DPJ

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Posted 08 August 2012 - 07:43 AM

Say that he might be a good 4-5 starter? That is the usual way it is done when someone changes their stance on a pitcher they do not like.


But I don't think he's gonna be a good 4-5 starter. When you have that small of a K-rate against AA hitters while not getting groundballs at a healthy clip then the ball is getting put in play way way too often.

I see little to no chance of BJ having any kind of success unless he makes some drastic change to his arsenal of pitches.

#33 wdhawks3

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Posted 09 August 2012 - 05:54 PM

Troll?


Douche?

#34 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 10 August 2012 - 08:34 PM

The Iowa flash continues to amaze with a complete game win with 10h 1 er 4k 1bb 94pitches 71strikes..... 13 groundouts vs 7 airouts Now 6th in EL w/3.09ERA but of the 34 pitchers who qualify (0.8IP per team gm).....Hermsen is 30th in Ks

Edited by greengoblinrulz, 10 August 2012 - 09:11 PM.


#35 old nurse

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Posted 10 August 2012 - 09:31 PM

Say that he might be a good 4-5 starter? That is the usual way it is done when someone changes their stance on a pitcher they do not like.


But I don't think he's gonna be a good 4-5 starter. When you have that small of a K-rate against AA hitters while not getting groundballs at a healthy clip then the ball is getting put in play way way too often.

I see little to no chance of BJ having any kind of success unless he makes some drastic change to his arsenal of pitches.


Sorry, I was trying to find a diplomatic answer. Yes the outcome is different when most of the the hitters no longer have warning track power. Maybe the Twins could trade him to a club in the central division. There is one team with a lineup 3/4 full of warning track power Hermsen could find success against.

#36 Seanmiz

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Posted 12 August 2012 - 08:52 PM

Great game on Friday: IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG [TABLE="class: dataTableClass, width: 615"] [TR="class: dataRow odd"] [TD="class: dataCell, align: center"]9.0[/TD] [TD="class: dataCell, align: center"]10[/TD] [TD="class: dataCell, align: center"]1[/TD] [TD="class: dataCell, align: center"]1[/TD] [TD="class: dataCell, align: center"]0[/TD] [TD="class: dataCell, align: center"]1[/TD] [TD="class: dataCell, align: center"]4[/TD] [TD="class: dataCell, align: center"]1.63[/TD] [TD="class: dataCell, align: center"].286[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

#37 drivlikejehu

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Posted 13 August 2012 - 12:28 AM

Hermsen just doesn't have Major League stuff at this point, and probably never will. He would be batting practice. The key for him will be whether he can add velocity with a move to the bullpen. Bringing up Milone in comparison is just nonsense... he struck out nearly a batter per inning in AA.

Edited by drivlikejehu, 13 August 2012 - 12:31 AM.


#38 righty8383

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Posted 13 August 2012 - 01:22 AM

Hermsen just doesn't have Major League stuff at this point, and probably never will. He would be batting practice. The key for him will be whether he can add velocity with a move to the bullpen.

Bringing up Milone in comparison is just nonsense... he struck out nearly a batter per inning in AA.


I tend to agree with this. Even non strike out pitchers in the major leagues had at around 1 K/inning in the minors. I just don't see Hermsen being a quality starter in the bigs despite his solid numbers. Of course I'm always eager to be proven wrong in cases like this.

#39 old nurse

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Posted 13 August 2012 - 04:57 AM

Hermsen just doesn't have Major League stuff at this point, and probably never will. He would be batting practice. The key for him will be whether he can add velocity with a move to the bullpen.

Bringing up Milone in comparison is just nonsense... he struck out nearly a batter per inning in AA.

Are you basing your opinion on what you see on paper or have you seen him pitch? How good is the movement on his pitches?
He may not strike out a lot of hitters, but he does not walk them either. His hits allowed total is not high either. If you want to base analysis only on one metric there is not much analysis going on.

#40 DPJ

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Posted 13 August 2012 - 06:22 AM

Are you basing your opinion on what you see on paper or have you seen him pitch? How good is the movement on his pitches?
He may not strike out a lot of hitters, but he does not walk them either. His hits allowed total is not high either. If you want to base analysis only on one metric there is not much analysis going on.


Just looking at his k-rate is foolish, but it is a telling stat. When the ball is constantly being put in play against you odds are the ball is gonna find holes or go over the fence. His groundball rate is ok, but not elite that will cover up the lack of K's. I got nothing personal against BJ, I wish him the best. But I just see no chance in hell that he's gonna survive in the majors with the numbers and stuff he's shown in the minors.