Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

The same great Twins Daily coverage, now for the Vikings.

The Store

Recent Blogs


Photo

Who will lead the team in home runs this year?

  • Please log in to reply
57 replies to this topic

#1 KirbyHawk75

KirbyHawk75

    Member

  • Members
  • 54 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 11:39 AM

Prediction Josh Willingham-21

Dark Horse: Miguel Sano: After June call up..

#2 Brandon

Brandon

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 834 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 11:48 AM

Stephen Drew is my Dark Horse.

But is all seriousness I too will go with Willingham with 30

#3 ChiTownTwinsFan

ChiTownTwinsFan

    Moderation in all things ...

  • Twins Mods
  • 6,179 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 11:50 AM

I'm going with Arcia.
When life gives you lemons, suck on them and persevere.

#4 Hosken Bombo Disco

Hosken Bombo Disco

    would start Pinto

  • Members
  • 1,340 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 12:03 PM

1. Arcia = 30
2. Mauer between 15-20
3. Willingham = 15 (traded at deadline)
…Sano will have a handful

Puckett went from 4 to 31 in one season, although he was a little older than Arcia at the time, but it's spring so why not hope Arcia explodes!?

#5 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,776 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 01:05 PM

Yeah, Puckett had the sculpted body of a Greek God, it was pretty obvious he was juicing. Clearly you've explained that increase in HR beyond further discussion.

I pick Arcia also, but only leading the team at 24. I'll bet Sano is close but is handicapped by not getting called up until late June.

Edited by twinsnorth49, 22 February 2014 - 02:33 PM.


#6 PseudoSABR

PseudoSABR

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 1,971 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 01:24 PM

I'll pick the wildcard, Kubel.

#7 Hosken Bombo Disco

Hosken Bombo Disco

    would start Pinto

  • Members
  • 1,340 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 01:26 PM

Steroids are a hell of a drug.


So are hot dogs, ask Babe Ruth.

#8 Twins Twerp

Twins Twerp

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 795 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 01:47 PM

Hughes?

#9 stringer bell

stringer bell

    Confirmed Hacker

  • Twins News Team
  • 4,296 posts
  • LocationZumbrota MN

Posted 22 February 2014 - 01:49 PM

I couldn't believe that Kirby went from 4 to 31 homers (I thought the power increase was more gradual). I found a couple of interesting things at BBRef. Puck's RBI increased only from 74 to 96 (while he "drove in himself" 27 more times). Also, the top 10 comparables to Kirby are all good players, but none of them are Hall of Famers. The dirty little secret is that Puckett was a fine player, but a marginal HoFer, at best.

#10 johnnydakota

johnnydakota

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 1,498 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 01:52 PM

with his back to the wall and recovered from his concussion and wrist aliment , my dark horse is Plouffe, at 26HRs, 14 as a third basemen and the other 12 as a leftfielder and DH once Ham is traded and Sano takes over 3rd

#11 stringer bell

stringer bell

    Confirmed Hacker

  • Twins News Team
  • 4,296 posts
  • LocationZumbrota MN

Posted 22 February 2014 - 01:54 PM

I posted a poll quite a while ago asking about who would lead the team in homers. I picked Arcia then. I guess that is still my call.

#12 Shane Wahl

Shane Wahl

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,108 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 02:28 PM

Arcia and Plouffe, tied at 23.

#13 twinsnorth49

twinsnorth49

    Moderately Moderate

  • Twins Mods
  • 3,792 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 02:28 PM

Arcia-27

#14 Bark's Lounge

Bark's Lounge

    Whatchamacallit is the Best Candy Bar

  • Members
  • 1,776 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 03:47 PM

I'll pick the wildcard, Kubel.

I'm feeling your MoJo on this pick... I agree.

There he goes. One of God's own prototypes. Some kind of high powered mutant never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die.


#15 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Yes

  • Members
  • 4,343 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 22 February 2014 - 03:50 PM

The dirty little secret is that Puckett was a fine player, but a marginal HoFer, at best.


That's up for discussion. Here is a fact:
Kirby has the highest batting average for a right hand hitter who played after 1951, if you exclude the 2 active RHB players (Kirby's is .3181, Pujols leads with .3211 and Cabrera is second with .3208; give those guys a few more decline seasons, and...)

Also, is Ozzie Smith (he of the career .666 OPS) a Hall of Famer? How about Joe Gordon? (he is a good comparable btw, other than the batting championships and the rings of Kirby)
-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#16 ChiTownTwinsFan

ChiTownTwinsFan

    Moderation in all things ...

  • Twins Mods
  • 6,179 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 04:12 PM

That's up for discussion. Here is a fact:
Kirby has the highest batting average for a right hand hitter who played after 1951, if you exclude the 2 active RHB players (Kirby's is .3181, Pujols leads with .3211 and Cabrera is second with .3208; give those guys a few more decline seasons, and...)

Also, is Ozzie Smith (he of the career .666 OPS) a Hall of Famer? How about Joe Gordon? (he is a good comparable btw, other than the batting championships and the rings of Kirby)


This is a thread about who people think will hit the most home runs this year. Let's please stay on topic. If you wish to have a different discussion, please start another thread on that topic. thanks.
When life gives you lemons, suck on them and persevere.

#17 Guest_USAFChief_*

Guest_USAFChief_*
  • Guests

Posted 22 February 2014 - 04:20 PM

I like the Plouffe pick...I'll cross my fingers and go with that.

#18 CRArko

CRArko

    Master of all I survey.

  • Members
  • 1,647 posts
  • LocationThe Pandorica.
  • Twitter: crarko

Posted 22 February 2014 - 04:32 PM

If he's here most of the season, Willingham. Otherwise Arcia should mash a few too.

I also think Mauer will surprise, and that Sano will do well in SLG percent when he's up, but won't be up long enough this season.

How's that for equivocating?

#19 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Yes

  • Members
  • 4,343 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 22 February 2014 - 04:53 PM

Arcia hit 24 HRs last season as a 22 year old between the majors and AAA. The season before he hit 17 between Fort Myers and New Britain.
Plouffe's ceiling seems to be around 30, Kubel's ceiling was 30, Willingham is not getting any younger, so unless Sano is up in the majors to stay, I'd have to say Arcia (later) with around 35.
-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#20 Monkeypaws

Monkeypaws

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 723 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 05:01 PM

Like Johnny Dakota's pick, but i think Willingham rebounds and unloads this year: 28.

I'd like to vote Oswaldo, but until I see him fix his strike zone management, I'm taking the proven track record.

#21 cmathewson

cmathewson

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,273 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 05:45 PM

I'll say Plouffe with 26 and Arcia with 24.

Kubel: 20
Mauer: 18
Sano 16
willingham: 14(traded)
Dozier: 13
Hicks: 12
Pinto 10
Florimon: 10
"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

#22 KirbyHawk75

KirbyHawk75

    Member

  • Members
  • 54 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 05:50 PM

If Plouffe hits 20 or more home runs we could possibly get a decent prospect for him?

#23 thetank

thetank

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 204 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 06:00 PM

Arcia hit 24 HRs last season as a 22 year old between the majors and AAA. The season before he hit 17 between Fort Myers and New Britain.
Plouffe's ceiling seems to be around 30, Kubel's ceiling was 30, Willingham is not getting any younger, so unless Sano is up in the majors to stay, I'd have to say Arcia (later) with around 35.

If they hit this many HRs the Twins will win 81 at least.

#24 stringer bell

stringer bell

    Confirmed Hacker

  • Twins News Team
  • 4,296 posts
  • LocationZumbrota MN

Posted 22 February 2014 - 06:04 PM

This is a thread about who people think will hit the most home runs this year. Let's please stay on topic. If you wish to have a different discussion, please start another thread on that topic. thanks.


My bad. I should have probably put that in the Mauer/Puckett thread.

#25 DocBauer

DocBauer

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 670 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 06:40 PM

with his back to the wall and recovered from his concussion and wrist aliment , my dark horse is Plouffe, at 26HRs, 14 as a third basemen and the other 12 as a leftfielder and DH once Ham is traded and Sano takes over 3rd


I like this! And I really can't disagree with it in any way other than to argue a bit with the numbers per position appearance. He could play a bit more 3B, mix in some 1B, etc, but that's silly nit picking.

Healthy, a couple full seasons under his belt, I think Plouffe just might be in that 24-26 range. I fell Arcia will run neck to neck with him, though he might be a bit more streaky in his production.

Willingham, if healthy, could, of course be right there, but if he's hitting that well, I still believe he's traded. That takes him out of the equation. Though I repeat if he accepts the DH role with Molitor's help, experience and advice, I'm not opposed to keeping him if there isn't a decent value for him.

Kubes is a dark horse who could be a runner. But it depends not only what he has left in the tank, but how the roster and opportunity shakes out.

Mauer is not going to challenge. But fully healthy, not so beat up a 1B now, 500 plus AB's, 40 Dbls and 15 HR's are very possible, with a high of 18. Just not sure his stroke allows for 20.

#26 JB_Iowa

JB_Iowa

    Cynical Oldie

  • Members
  • 3,882 posts
  • LocationNorthwest Iowa

Posted 22 February 2014 - 07:34 PM

I haven't got a clue .... but I would be very happy to have:


2 players @25 or above
+
1 player @20 or above
+
1 player @17 or above
+
1 player @15 or above

That would be at least 102 homers by the top 5 power hitters on the team -- a pretty substantial increase over the 77 that the top 5 hit last year.

Is it likely? Probably not.

Is it possible? With some help from the gods of health and some warm summer days, I think so.

Edited by JB_Iowa, 22 February 2014 - 07:42 PM.


#27 scottz

scottz

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 131 posts

Posted 22 February 2014 - 08:28 PM

I'll go with the kid that has the best walk-up music. And that, my friends, is Mr. Oswaldo Arcia. (2013 HRs = 24 in 479 ABs between Rochester and the big club...as a 22 year old!)

#28 Brabes1987

Brabes1987

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 8 posts

Posted 23 February 2014 - 12:40 AM

Arcia 25-30
Sano will give him a run for his money if he makes the opening day roster

#29 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 5,191 posts

Posted 23 February 2014 - 06:07 AM

Arcia with 22. We aren't going to trot much this year.

#30 DocBauer

DocBauer

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 670 posts

Posted 23 February 2014 - 09:31 AM

I haven't got a clue .... but I would be very happy to have:


2 players @25 or above
+
1 player @20 or above
+
1 player @17 or above
+
1 player @15 or above

That would be at least 102 homers by the top 5 power hitters on the team -- a pretty substantial increase over the 77 that the top 5 hit last year.

Is it likely? Probably not.

Is it possible? With some help from the gods of health and some warm summer days, I think so.


I'll see your proposal and offer a counter one.

Arcia and Plouffe as your mid 20's-ish. But your other 20 HR producer could be tough. Too many variables. What does Kubes have left and is there going to be real AB's for him, when might Sano be ready, does Willingham rebound, and if he does, does he stay?

But how about I take your 20HR guy away, and offer up 4 players instead of 2 who might give you that 15-17ish HR mark? Mauer, Dozier, Pinto and possibly Hicks over 500 AB's could all be in that range.

(Sano is the gravy and icing on top all in one potential package)