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Article: 2014 Draft Board v.1.0

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#21 gunnarthor

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Posted 21 February 2014 - 11:48 AM

From Callis' inbox:
http://mlb.mlb.com/n...ent_id=68046312

"Of the current top 15 Draft prospects, who can make the biggest jump based on what they show this year?
-- Tory J., Tampa, Fla.


Gainesville (Ga.) High School outfielder Michael Gettys immediately jumps to mind. For the third straight year, the most electric high school talent is a prep outfielder from the Peach State, with Gettys following Buxton (2012), Frazier and Meadows (2013).
Gettys posted some eye-popping numbers at the Perfect Game National Showcase last June, running the 60-yard dash in 6.43 seconds, uncorking a throw clocked at 100 mph from the outfield and working at 91-94 mph off the mound. If he were solely a pitcher, he'd be an early-round prospect, but he'll get drafted as an outfielder.
The big question is how much Gettys will hit. He has a lot of bat speed and raw power, but he swings and misses more than he should and has struggled against quality breaking pitches.
We rated Gettys as the 10th-best Draft prospect coming into the year. If he were to somehow answer all of the questions about his bat, he'd go near the very top of the Draft and likely would be the first high school player drafted."

Big, toolsy OF from GA. Seems like a Twins type.

#22 nicksaviking

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Posted 21 February 2014 - 12:24 PM

Kolek and Gatewood are the two that strike me as having the highest ceilings at this point and that's what I prefer. Still, like the last two years, being the first team to pick a US HS kid has it's drawbacks, specifically being much less able to go after the tough sign HS kids in round two.

My heart says high upside HS kid right now, but my brain is hoping for the BPA to be an easy sign college guy.

Also, while Hoffman has the profile similar to Jonathan Gray, I think his path appears more like Sean Manaea. Gray didn't move up the rankings until later in the spring, it was Manaea who got the huge boost from the Cape Cod League. I'd think this year's Gray is a lower ranked guy right now. My preseason pick was Michael Cederoth though he didn't fare too well in his first start.

#23 chuchadoro

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Posted 21 February 2014 - 12:28 PM

The Turner-Michael comp is unfair but I'm not terribly impressed with what I've read about Turner so far. "He's really fast and will likely stick at SS" is just about all I've heard on him. Having wheels is great but it's often the tool that first abandons a player. There is also a big difference between sticking at SS and being a plus defender at the position. I'm not saying Trea won't be good defensively. I would imagine he has good range and enough arm to get the "likely to stick at SS" label but I'd rather hear "projects as a plus defender". I also haven't heard much about his hit tool. If Turner projects as an above-average defender with a decent shot at .270/.350/.375, I'd gladly take it. My uninformed opinion has me in the Kolek camp right now, though.

#24 markos

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Posted 21 February 2014 - 02:10 PM

I would imagine he has good range and enough arm to get the "likely to stick at SS" label but I'd rather hear "projects as a plus defender".


It seems like every draft candidate or prospect in the minors gets overrated defensively (some more than others), and their defensive ability (if they do have it) can deteriorate quickly. As just one example, are some of the defensive quote about Arcia from Baseball Prospectus over the past few years:

2011:
[FONT=Arial]He's a good athlete for his size and has good outfield instincts.[/FONT]

2012:
[FONT=Arial]He's not special in the outfield, but hardly a liability[/FONT]

2013:
[FONT=Arial]arm is at least solid-average; will play in right field. [/FONT][FONT=Arial]Good athlete for his size, but lacks average run; limited to a corner spot[/FONT]

Based on my observations (and backed by some of the defensive metrics), it turns out that Arcia was one of the worst defensive outfielders in all of baseball last season. Also, consider the players that the Twins selected to play shortstop over the past few years - Dozier, Plouffe, Nishioka. It became very apparent very quickly that they were unable to handle the position.

Long story short, I drop every prospect at least a step from the scouting reports. Shortstop projected to be average? Then I think he is probably terrible and not really a shortstop. Plus centerfielder? Hopefully will be average in the majors. For me, the kiss of death for a prospect defensively is "he should be able to handle/stick at the position."

Regarding Turner defensively, I'm starting to think of Billy Hamilton. Hamilton also started off as a shortstop, but despite world-class speed, has had to move to the outfield. If there are any doubts about Turner staying at shortstop, that is a huge red flag for me.

#25 2wins87

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Posted 21 February 2014 - 02:32 PM

Turner is new to being a SS (he was at 3B his Freshman year) so I think a lot of the reports will be a bit conservative, but I've read a few that say he should be at least an above average defender.
He's one of the most all-around athletic players in the draft.

#26 tobi0040

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Posted 21 February 2014 - 02:42 PM

The Turner-Michael comp is unfair but I'm not terribly impressed with what I've read about Turner so far. "He's really fast and will likely stick at SS" is just about all I've heard on him. Having wheels is great but it's often the tool that first abandons a player. There is also a big difference between sticking at SS and being a plus defender at the position. I'm not saying Trea won't be good defensively. I would imagine he has good range and enough arm to get the "likely to stick at SS" label but I'd rather hear "projects as a plus defender". I also haven't heard much about his hit tool. If Turner projects as an above-average defender with a decent shot at .270/.350/.375, I'd gladly take it. My uninformed opinion has me in the Kolek camp right now, though.


I agree that if Turner is just average defensively or is not a lock to stick at SS, you want to take a SP with 98+ gas.

#27 drock2190

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Posted 21 February 2014 - 05:44 PM

No to Turner. Not a fan of players who's best tool is speed.

I'm hoping Kolek will be there as he seems like the high upside arm that the Twins could use.

#28 nicksaviking

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Posted 21 February 2014 - 06:37 PM

No to Turner. Not a fan of players who's best tool is speed.

I'm hoping Kolek will be there as he seems like the high upside arm that the Twins could use.


His best tool being speed doesn't bother me, after all most would say that's Buxton's best tool.

My problem is that it's questionable he has other tools. Even if his defense was superb it's not enough for me. They need to have 4-5 tools at the #5 pick because too often one or two of the tools just aren't as great as advertised. If you only have two tools (OK three, but arm strength really goes with defense, no one is considered a great defensive player if their arm stinks) you have to hit on both tools. Elvis Andrus is a speedy defensive guy, but he's not a great hitter and has no power. Had his defense or speed not developed, he'd be a bust, there's just no margin of error with guys with only one or two strong tools and nothing else.

#29 maxisagod

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Posted 21 February 2014 - 06:49 PM

Cease and Marshall seem like inbetweeners to me. Guys who will never break the top five of any board, but very unlikely to fall to the 2nd round. Kind of like Resse McGuire last year, A guy the Twins would have grabbed if they were a little lower in the draft. If there was trading picks in the draft, I'd give them both a better look, otherwise I don't like hoping for a kid's stock and future to skydive down during the season, just so the Twins can grab one of them later (Like Eades and Gonsalves last year).

#30 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 21 February 2014 - 08:05 PM

I never compared Michael and Turner - in fact I called them very different players - but I did draw parallels, fair or not.

#31 chuchadoro

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Posted 21 February 2014 - 08:55 PM

I never compared Michael and Turner - in fact I called them very different players - but I did draw parallels, fair or not.


I can't speak for everyone but would assume most understood what you meant in the article. I was just agreeing with you that the inevitable comparison of the two is unfair. I'm definitely not high on him right now, though.

#32 twinsin17

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Posted 21 February 2014 - 10:04 PM

Tyler Beede dominated again today and now has and ERA of .82, 14.73 K/9, 9 K/BB and a .45 WHIP in his two starts (both wins). Stat lovers are salivating everywhere. Its just two games but he has been the top college arm thus far, Rodon included. The knock on him going in to this year was his control and if he continues to show it is improved come draft time he will surpass Hoffman and may make a run at Rodon for top pick. He already has a plus FB and curve and scouts say his change up flashes plus. If he can continue to hone the change and maintain his new found control we are talking about a true #1 starter/ace.

#33 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 22 February 2014 - 12:39 AM

I don't know how you do this draft coverage. last you you were spot on with pics going 2nd round and beyond. Impressive skills grasshopper. Mix in your strong ability to bro-hug while intoxicated, we've got a winning combination. Strong.

#34 gunnarthor

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Posted 23 February 2014 - 10:43 AM

Tyler Beede dominated again today and now has and ERA of .82, 14.73 K/9, 9 K/BB and a .45 WHIP in his two starts (both wins). Stat lovers are salivating everywhere. Its just two games but he has been the top college arm thus far, Rodon included. The knock on him going in to this year was his control and if he continues to show it is improved come draft time he will surpass Hoffman and may make a run at Rodon for top pick. He already has a plus FB and curve and scouts say his change up flashes plus. If he can continue to hone the change and maintain his new found control we are talking about a true #1 starter/ace.


This is just great news for us even if he doesn't fall to us. Anything to make this draft deeper helps. And I really, really hope Miami goes the cheap route at #2.

#35 Butterfingers8

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Posted 23 February 2014 - 11:39 AM

And I really, really hope Miami goes the cheap route at #2.


Out of curiosity, who would you consider the cheap route at #2?

#36 gunnarthor

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Posted 23 February 2014 - 11:44 AM

Out of curiosity, who would you consider the cheap route at #2?

Two reasons - first, their owner is a pretty cheap guy who is always looking to save a buck. Second, they have three picks between 32 and 42 as well so it might make some sense to take a guy at #2 who might be a top 10 talent but would save them a few million to use on those three picks. (For example, Miami brass might really like local HS arm Toussaint, who has some potential but probably is a reach at 2. Take him and save 3million there and then nab some falling talent in the supplemental draft).

And, after I wrote that, I realized you said "who" not "why". Oh well.

#37 Butterfingers8

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Posted 23 February 2014 - 11:47 AM

I meant which player(s). I fully understand that Miami has historically taken the cheap route and the reasons a team would take such a route. I am just curious who these players might be.

#38 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 23 February 2014 - 02:16 PM

I meant which player(s). I fully understand that Miami has historically taken the cheap route and the reasons a team would take such a route. I am just curious who these players might be.


I would say anyone who is 11-20 on this list would be a good candidate. There's a lot that goes into it. Houston essentially did that with Correa the year we took Buxton. Their scouts were convinced that he was going to be a stud and turned around and got him for below slot. They then turned around and grabbed some guys with their other picks and signed them overslot. Thus far, it has worked out for them.

#39 twinsin17

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Posted 23 February 2014 - 04:03 PM

I have to believe Aaron Nola will be given strong consideration at #5, especially if the first 4 picks are Rodon/Beede/Hoffman/Kolek. He was a (more successful) teammate to Ryan Eades last year so its safe to say we have an extensive history scouting him and Nola is widely regarded to have excellent command of a strong 3 pitch FB/slide/change up mix. He may not have the highest ceiling at 5 but he may be the best bet to reach his ceiling of the remaining starters. He could be viewed as someone who would move through the system quickly a la Wacha/Gausman/Gray/Stephenson and be ready to help in just a couple years. Nola would be especially valuable if we think he could be signed below slot value.

#40 gunnarthor

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Posted 23 February 2014 - 05:34 PM

I have to believe Aaron Nola will be given strong consideration at #5, especially if the first 4 picks are Rodon/Beede/Hoffman/Kolek. He was a (more successful) teammate to Ryan Eades last year so its safe to say we have an extensive history scouting him and Nola is widely regarded to have excellent command of a strong 3 pitch FB/slide/change up mix. He may not have the highest ceiling at 5 but he may be the best bet to reach his ceiling of the remaining starters. He could be viewed as someone who would move through the system quickly a la Wacha/Gausman/Gray/Stephenson and be ready to help in just a couple years. Nola would be especially valuable if we think he could be signed below slot value.


His write up at mlb.com reads a lot like Kyle Gibson. Not a bad thing even though TJ has slowed Gibson down. I wouldn't be against it but I think the Twins are pretty reliable BPA and I don't think Nola will be that. He could be this years Shipley - sorta wanted him but a bit of a reach and then someone else takes him and I'm like "dang, nice pick."