Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Photo

2014 MLB Draft Thread

  • This topic is locked This topic is locked
1286 replies to this topic

#21 howieramone1406390264

howieramone1406390264

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 715 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 11:26 AM

We should probably be talking about HS C/OF Alex Jackson as well. Twins love toolsy prep bats and, on mlb.com's list, he's currently the best HS bat in the country. Jacob Gatewood, another toolsy HS bat, could be an exciting pick, too. He probably ends up at 3rd but could be a 30 homerun guy.


I think Jackson is interesting also. Would the Twins make him their catcher of the future because of his power and overall hit tool? I read an article sometime ago, that said most likely he can stay at catcher, but teams may want to get his bat in the lineup earlier, hence the move to the OF like Harper.

Edited by howieramone, 18 February 2014 - 11:59 AM.


#22 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Cooperstown

  • Twins Mods
  • 8,102 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 11:31 AM

Because the college season has started in some states, but the high school season has not, you gong to see more chatter about college guys for awhile, not because the high school guys have lost stock, but because we don't have a lot of new data or reports on them. Gatewood is an example of a guy the Marlins could target, someone who could be the cream of the draft, but is slotted in the top 10. So the Marlins cut a deal to save cash/cap space.


Gatewood is actually my dark horse pick as the most likely (yet still unlikely) to unseat Rodon as the #1 pick. With his power, I think he has the best chance to become a once a decade hyped HS prospect.

People don't think he'll stick at SS, but I've never read anything about him being a questionable defender, it's simply that scouts think he will be too large. I thought we were slowly getting away from the idea that height and weight had to determine your position? This guy is tall and lean, he could add 20 lbs to his 190 lb body and still look like the best athlete on the team. Probably even 30.

Posted Image

#23 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 5,677 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 11:35 AM

I think Jackson is interesting also. Would the Twins make him their catcher of the future because of his power and overall hit tool?


That'd be my thinking. Let him stick behind the plate as long as he could.

#24 Shane Wahl

Shane Wahl

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 5,798 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 11:49 AM

I really like Kolek. If around . . .

#25 Shane Wahl

Shane Wahl

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 5,798 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 11:56 AM

In the 2nd and 3rd rounds, the jerks at IU have a couple of good players (Schwarber C/1B and Travis 1B).

#26 pierre75275

pierre75275

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 367 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 11:57 AM

If when the Twins pick, Kolek and Turner are both available after good years, I would have no idea which one I would prefer. I think Kolek.

#27 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 15,414 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 12:09 PM

I would much rather have a SS or power SP over another toolsy OF. Buxton may be in CF for the next 10-15 years. Arcia may have a corner spot, so might Hicks. Corner OF spots are relatively easy to fill on the free agent market as well.

Pure BPA strategies, in my opinion need to be adjusted a little if other needs can or can't be filled in free agency. Same with football. The Vikings have CB and QB needs, good QB's almost never hit free agency and you need a QB to win (like you need SP in baseball).

The good news is this draft appears to be deep at SP and SS, so hopefully BPA and needs will intersect.


The difference between baseball and other sports is draft lead time, which is why I believe in taking the BPA every time.

If you take the BPA, he's probably not going to hit the MLB roster for anywhere between 2-4 seasons. That gives you plenty of time to shift around assets and adjust for need using your MLB roster.

For example, moving Denard Span and Ben Revere in a two week period for pitching. Should the Twins take another toolsy OF because he's the BPA, there's nothing stopping them from moving Arcia or Hicks in 24 months' time and plugging a hole that way. Even a somewhat pedestrian MLB player like Denard Span can land you top-shelf talent like Alex Meyer. It's easy to move established MLB players who are young and cost-controlled.

Whereas if you're drafting for need, you're undermining your own scouting department and who they believe is the best player on the board, instead taking a guy and projecting need well into the future, a need that may not exist in 24-36 months.

#28 amjgt

amjgt

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,336 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 12:23 PM

I think taking a position based on organization needs doesn't make sense, but targeting a position based on what was mentioned above - harder positions to fill in free agency - does make sense sometimes.

It become semantics a little bit. Does their scarcity make them the BPA or does their scarcity mean you overlook a player who your scouts have graded slightly higher?

#29 cmb0252

cmb0252

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,900 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 12:26 PM

I'm not saying anyone should avoid the topic but nailing down a pick and definitely saying "this is who the Twins should draft" in February is pretty comical, particularly regarding prep athletes.

What the draft looks like today and what it will look like in early June are two vastly different things. Players will shuffle up and down the slot board like crazy in the next four months.


It is actually far from comical. I don't understand why people always say this. Obviously if we had say the 25th pick compared to the 5th pick I might agree with you but we don't. The player we will pick is most likely to be a MLB.com top 25 talent player. Sure, some rise and some fall but a majority will stay the same. Perhaps in just a different order. The last two drafts we had people around here on the Buxton or Stewart bandwagon earlier than this.

#30 cmb0252

cmb0252

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,900 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 12:29 PM

The difference between baseball and other sports is draft lead time, which is why I believe in taking the BPA every time.

If you take the BPA, he's probably not going to hit the MLB roster for anywhere between 2-4 seasons. That gives you plenty of time to shift around assets and adjust for need using your MLB roster.

For example, moving Denard Span and Ben Revere in a two week period for pitching. Should the Twins take another toolsy OF because he's the BPA, there's nothing stopping them from moving Arcia or Hicks in 24 months' time and plugging a hole that way. Even a somewhat pedestrian MLB player like Denard Span can land you top-shelf talent like Alex Meyer. It's easy to move established MLB players who are young and cost-controlled.

Whereas if you're drafting for need, you're undermining your own scouting department and who they believe is the best player on the board, instead taking a guy and projecting need well into the future, a need that may not exist in 24-36 months.


This is a great post about why draft BPA vs positional need.

#31 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 15,414 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 12:31 PM

It is actually far from comical. I don't understand why people always say this. Obviously if we had say the 25th pick compared to the 5th pick I might agree with you but we don't. The player we will pick is most likely to be a MLB.com top 25 talent player. Sure, some rise and some fall but a majority will stay the same. Perhaps in just a different order. The last two drafts we had people around here on the Buxton or Stewart bandwagon earlier than this.


Notice that I said "people who say the Twins should definitively draft Player X in February".

It's fine to be on the Buxton bandwagon in February. But before Buxton's last prep season, he could have been anywhere between the #1 and #15 pick.

There's still an entire baseball season that needs to be played before the draft. Guys are going to go up and down the board based on that season, growth spurts, or injury. Look at what happened to Kyle Gibson in 2009.

#32 cmathewson

cmathewson

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,273 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 12:46 PM

Gatewood is actually my dark horse pick as the most likely (yet still unlikely) to unseat Rodon as the #1 pick. With his power, I think he has the best chance to become a once a decade hyped HS prospect.

People don't think he'll stick at SS, but I've never read anything about him being a questionable defender, it's simply that scouts think he will be too large. I thought we were slowly getting away from the idea that height and weight had to determine your position? This guy is tall and lean, he could add 20 lbs to his 190 lb body and still look like the best athlete on the team. Probably even 30.

Posted Image


If he adds 20 lbs to his frame, he's a questionable defender at short. If he adds 30, he's a corner outfielder. You have to be light and lean to cover ground.
"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

#33 cmb0252

cmb0252

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,900 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 02:19 PM

Badeball America released their Early Draft Preview: Best Tools today for both college and HS. For those of you on the Turner bandwagon he showed up 3 times; best athlete, best speed, and best defender. He also showed up twice under "other candidates" for; quickest to the majors and best infielder arm.

Here are both the college and HS lists:
College:
http://www.baseballa...iew-best-tools/

High School:
http://www.baseballa...ool-best-tools/

#34 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Cooperstown

  • Twins Mods
  • 8,102 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 03:07 PM

If he adds 20 lbs to his frame, he's a questionable defender at short. If he adds 30, he's a corner outfielder. You have to be light and lean to cover ground.


Again, that's conjecture. There is no definitive arguement that a 220 lb guy can't play SS, just past biases. A-rod and Miguel Tejada played at that weight, so does Troy Tulowitzki, they didn't have range issues. The rare middle of the order SS often is a 200+ lb man.

He may have to move, but that should be something determined by defensive productivity, not preconcieved ideas about the ideal body type made by bloggers or even scouts. Besides this guy's already got elite power, it's not like he NEEDS to add more bulk to be a power threat.

#35 cmb0252

cmb0252

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,900 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 03:56 PM

Kiley McDaniel just released his top 52 draft prospect list. It is well worth your time to check it out. I really like how he breaks it down in tiers (mostly because that's what I do when making my own list).

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1376626.html

#36 AM.

AM.

    Always in Moderation

  • Members
  • 1,023 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 04:15 PM

I'm not saying anyone should avoid the topic but nailing down a pick and definitely saying "this is who the Twins should draft" in February is pretty comical, particularly regarding prep athletes.

What the draft looks like today and what it will look like in early June are two vastly different things. Players will shuffle up and down the slot board like crazy in the next four months.


Riddle me this: Why is 1 month of play against MLB players in spring training or Sept irrelevant or hopelessly SSS, while 3+ months of play against wildly divergent college or high school competition (with metal bats) highly determinant? Hell, I've seen whole MLB seasons be waved off as outliers.

#37 maxisagod

maxisagod

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 445 posts
  • LocationThe Moon

Posted 18 February 2014 - 04:33 PM

Kiley McDaniel just released his top 52 draft prospect list. It is well worth your time to check it out. I really like how he breaks it down in tiers (mostly because that's what I do when making my own list).

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1376626.html


The LAST thing I want to read is the top tier ends at 4 players!

#38 johnnydakota

johnnydakota

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 1,498 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 04:38 PM

The LAST thing I want to read is the top tier ends at 4 players!


Didnt it end last year at #3?

#39 dgwills

dgwills

    Member

  • Members
  • 410 posts

Posted 18 February 2014 - 04:47 PM

The LAST thing I want to read is the top tier ends at 4 players!


Hmmm. That sounds familiar for some reason

#40 ashburyjohn

ashburyjohn

    Twins Daily Member

  • Twins Mods
  • 12,227 posts
  • LocationNatick MA

Posted 18 February 2014 - 05:18 PM

The LAST thing I want to read is the top tier ends at 4 players!


It's fine with me; we KNOW the rankings will change between now and June, so "4" becomes the LEAST likely number of top-tier players. :) I hope it becomes "5", but if it's "3" then at least the team above us in the draft is the one shedding bitter tears.