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Article: TD Top Prospects: #1 Byron Buxton

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#21 birdwatcher

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 09:26 AM

Nick, this article was a pleasure to read, not only because of the subject matter but because it's so artfully written. Thank you.

#22 TRex

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 09:43 AM

I think this type of concern is obviously premature, BUT, if you look 6 years from now, Mauer's current monster contract isn't on the books anymore, so in all honesty I think this concern is moot. If Sano and Buxton deserve the money, the Twins will pay it!

I'm predicting Buxton is the next player to join the 20-20-20-20 club (doubles, triples, HR's, SB's), and to give a perspective, only 4 players in the history of MLB are in that club.


He may also be able to get 20 outfield assists!

#23 Mike Sixel

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 09:55 AM

I was an Appel guy, it sure looks like I was wrong. Another player I can't wait to see hit, run, field.

#24 tobi0040

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 10:16 AM

I was an Appel guy, it sure looks like I was wrong. Another player I can't wait to see hit, run, field.


Unfortunately, I wanted Appel as well. Was generally upset by the pick.

#25 Dman

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 10:39 AM

I agree that the Twins have been good about keeping the players they really want or feel they need on the team despite the money. I just think he is likely going to make silly money in 6 years. I think he could be in the 35 to 40 million a year range if he is the game changer everyone thinks he might be. That would likely be a a quarter or third of our payroll to keep him. I realize they can make it work but if he goes to free agency I am concerned about the bidding war that could result and I am not aware of us winning many of those. With Mauer the Twins didn't have to bid against the major money teams hopefully Buxton will sign a hometown deal but I wouldn't bet on it.

If I were the Twins I would plan on having him for 6 years, hope for 8 and beyond but plan on utilizing his talent as judiciously as possible for those 6 years. Unless he really, really likes Minnesota he is going to want to listen to those crazy offers for his services. Like maybe 5 years for 250Mil or 6 for 350 maybe even 10 for 500M? What would you pay for a once in a lifetime talent who maybe comes out in FA at 27 or 28 years old if you have the money to burn (ie NY, LA, Seattle)?

#26 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 10:44 AM

I think Buxton and Sano with receive Longoria deals. I'm sure the Twins realize we won't see another #2 pick for 10 years or so. The Pohlads pledged 50% of revenue on average will be used for payroll over time. I don't think they are burying the yearly excess in their back yard. I just believe over time hasn't arrived.


Longoria signed a below market deal, and while I'd love for Sano/Buxton to do that, I wouldn't expect it. The Twins do have some leverage in that they can pay them more during their pre-arb years and guarantee a salary during their arb years in exchange for a year or two of FA, and I expect that to happen, but I do think at one point Sano and Buxton are going to want their deals if they turn into what it is that people think they could be... and let's be honest... we'd all do the same thing.

Now can the Twins afford it? I think they could, and they may. I woudln't be surprised though if they were forced to let one of them go.

#27 halfchest

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 11:02 AM

The Twins did ramp up the payroll that first year in Target Field and was above what they had budgeted if I remember correctly. That said, I don't know if they're saving money in the coffers for later years or not. Publicly they say they're willing to spend. Hopefully they mean it and when some of these guys do make it they do what the Braves have been doing this offseason.

#28 birddog

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 11:07 AM

So great to hear not only do these top prospects have amazing athletic prowess but also the drive to be the best. In addition they seem to possess strong leadership skills. Saw Buxton at Cedar Rapids last year for 3 games, just before the televised game. He was not at his best but still showed enough to get very excited, especially running the bases. Twins have done a great job recently, drafting and signing players to make the future very bright. Gotta believe they will do everything possible to keep these guys in Minnesota.

#29 Linus

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 11:14 AM

Signing Buxton to a monster contract will be a nice problem to have as that will mean we had one great player for 6 years.

Let's also not forget the Twins signed Kirby Puckett to the (at that time) largest contract in baseball history. If this new wave of talent pans out and the Twins start winning consistently again, revenues will climb substantially, thereby creating a larger pool of funds to sign these guys to extensions.

#30 Nick Nelson

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 11:45 AM

Nick, this article was a pleasure to read, not only because of the subject matter but because it's so artfully written. Thank you.


Thank YOU! Very kind.

#31 tobi0040

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 11:56 AM

Signing Buxton to a monster contract will be a nice problem to have as that will mean we had one great player for 6 years.

Let's also not forget the Twins signed Kirby Puckett to the (at that time) largest contract in baseball history. If this new wave of talent pans out and the Twins start winning consistently again, revenues will climb substantially, thereby creating a larger pool of funds to sign these guys to extensions.


2015-2019 could actually be a period where we are in playoff contention and have a relative low payroll. 2020 and beyond, look out. Mauer will likely be gone or be cheaper, but we could have a 2006-2007, only I would argue potentially more talent (Buxton, Sano, Meyer, our 5th pick next year, versus Santana, Torii, Cuddy, etc.)

#32 Halsey Hall

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 12:03 PM

Buxton is in Ft Myers, but has yet to show up at the park. There's not alot of fans out here yet, which is surprising, but most that are here are looking for him. When he does show, and the word gets out, it'll be a crowd here. Buxton will draw wherever he goes, and it's far from all Minnesota fans.

#33 Dman

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 12:24 PM

Unfortunately, I wanted Appel as well. Was generally upset by the pick.


Count me in the camp that wanted Appel as well and didn't think we needed Buxton. I guess that is why I am not a scout or GM, but I sure like to second guess those guys.:)

#34 Don't Feed the Greed Guy

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 12:26 PM

"No prospect is a sure thing."

A good and proper warning, Nick. However, this fan delights in seeing a good thing play out. One of my mentors has coached me over the course of my career path with the words, "Let it play out, Mark. Let it play out."

The fact that the Twins' farm system is loaded makes Target Field a target-rich environment. To use a shotgun metaphor, a shotgun shell is loaded with bb's and firepower. There are magnum loads and trap loads. Lead shot, steel shot, tungsten, toxic, and nontoxic. Just for the sake of a visual, take a look at these shells:

https://encrypted-tb...6eUcbDt7_P8Zmzw
If each shell represents a ballplayer, some might be loaded with one or two "plus" or "plus-plus" loads. Others with more or less skills--or loads--based upon position, offensive or defensive ability, and off-the-field attributes like leadership, age, personality, work ethic, and the like. The oft-referenced "five tool guy" would be the ideal load, in a manner of speaking.

Some in this thread have begun to speculate that the Big Three of Meyer, Sano, and Buxton pack so much firepower that they will play themselves out of Target Field's income stream in five or six years. How much fun would it be to see that problem play out?

Will the loads that are being packed and prepared in the minor leagues hit the target, hang fire, or fizzle out? We might also call them "studs and duds." My mind plays old tapes of Dick and Bert, extolling all of the young talent that keeps rolling out of the Kansas City Royals' farm system. So? What do they have to show for so much talent? Too soon to tell? I hear my coach, whispering over my shoulder, "Let it play out, Mark. Let it play out."

The sheer number of players, moving through the Twins system, waiting for their "shot" is impressive. Indeed, "no prospect is a sure thing," but the law of averages weighs in our favor. Variables like quality and quantity bring greater surety in this game. It comes down to a larger number of chances to hit the Target.

https://encrypted-tb...l8z8wu5CXGxwZCA

All I know is this: This fan will enjoy seeing it all play out.

#35 blindeke

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 02:59 PM

if the Tigers can afford all their talent, so can we

#36 mlhouse

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 03:53 PM

Unfortunately, I wanted Appel as well. Was generally upset by the pick.


Ditto…but I am glad I was wrong. The problem was the critical need for pitching.

#37 kemics

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 03:59 PM

Sano has to be added to the 40 man after this year anyhow, so I don't think that is really a concern, especially if there is a september call-up, might as well just leave him there.

If the twins are looking to be competitive and have the pieces in place, I see no problem with them signing these guys. These aren't your daddy's twins, they have money and will spent it.

However I can see a scenario where Sano is traded in order to restock the minors and free up payroll in order to sign Buxton long term. I think it's much easier to find a 1B/3B who can hit .280/.350 with 30+ hrs than it is a player like buxton.

#38 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 05:40 PM

Byron who? Never heard of this kid. Must be a bum.

#39 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 07:38 PM

If you haven't seen Buxton go from first to third before


No one has ever seen Buxton go from first to third. It's impossible to the naked eye.

#40 Jim Crikket

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 10:08 PM

Since we're sharing old Buxton videos, I'll re-post the following video of a Buxton triple I took last June. The first two videos above showed his defense and his power. This one shows off the speed.

A couple of things to note: it's not easy to notice, but the ball he hits to RCF never reaches the wall, it's cut off by the outfielder and Buxton still triples. He did that more than once in CR. Also, check out the time it takes him to get from home to 3B. He makes contact at :06 in to the video and slides in to 3B at :16 seconds. Home to 3B in roughly 10 seconds.