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Article: Did Terry Ryan Act Too Aggressively in Free Agency?

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#41 Rosterman

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 06:48 PM

No. Absolutely not. You make offers and a player grabs them or not. The player has to feel secure that they won't be getting more elsewhere.

Did the Twins overpay, or are there problems on the horizon with the guys who are waiting it out. Did they make a hint of an offer to Arroyo or Garza and were rebuffed? Did Pelfrey really want to come here?

The Twins needed to blow players away to get them to come. Agents work against you. They dangle that Arroyo has three years on the table, that Garza is looking at $72 million.

I think it is he other way around...Garza and Arroyo probably should've signed sooner rather than later. At some point rosters and payroll are set. The number of teams willing to payout so much $$$ shrinks.

#42 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 06:58 PM

Also, Nick may want to brace for bizarre arguments that in terms of talent Nolasco = Garza. I still haven't wrapped my head around that.


I would be willing to put a case of beer on who has the better ERA or WAR at the end of 4 years, but that's a long time away. How about a recurring bet once a year for both those metrics? Oh, and I get Nolasco if that wasn't clear.

#43 Monkeypaws

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 08:33 PM

I'd classify Ryan's actions as decisive rather than aggressive.

#44 TheLeviathan

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 09:51 PM

I would be willing to put a case of beer on who has the better ERA or WAR at the end of 4 years, but that's a long time away. How about a recurring bet once a year for both those metrics? Oh, and I get Nolasco if that wasn't clear.


id gladly take that in spirit.

I get the sense the only thing actually better about Nolasco is the uniform he'll put on in 2014. If it was Garza in that uni at the same price your position would flip.

#45 Physics Guy

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 09:51 PM

I said at the end of the season that I wanted Ryan to be proactive and get the pitchers he identified and not wait around for the scraps. I was pleasantly surprised when he did just that. Could he have made some better deals? Possibly. He also could have been left picking up this year's version of Correia and Pelfrey. I did not want to see that happen again, although Correia turned out fine.

#46 ashburyjohn

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 10:36 PM

I think it is he other way around...Garza and Arroyo probably should've signed sooner rather than later. At some point rosters and payroll are set. The number of teams willing to payout so much $$$ shrinks.


It's a game of musical chairs, except that at some stages of the game there are more players than chairs, and at other times there are more chairs than players, and everyone's blindfolded (yes even the chairs) and never quite sure of the exact layout.

#47 ashburyjohn

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 10:45 PM

Why did we trade Garza again? His ego? Or he hated us?


I don't think it was anything quite as simple as those. At the time there was a perceived oversupply of young starters, and in dealing from strength they opted to get the maximum in return they felt they could, and that meant dealing Garza. My opinion at the time was they had it backwards, and he was the one to not trade, even if the return would be less, but then again I don't have access to internal scouting reports, and my personal crystal ball is pretty much of a random number generator that happened to be right the one time. :)

#48 twinsfan34

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 11:58 PM

I would be willing to put a case of beer on who has the better ERA or WAR at the end of 4 years, but that's a long time away. How about a recurring bet once a year for both those metrics? Oh, and I get Nolasco if that wasn't clear.


I'm with you Joe. I feel more confident about Nolasco getting 180+ innings all 4 years than Garza getting 150+ innings all 4 years.

I also feel the Twins in year 3 of this arrangement will be considerably better than the Brewers. The Brewers don't have a farm system with any talent in sight. The Twins have the following possible contributors offer an improvement over what was on the field in 2013 to help out Nolasco in 2015.

C: Pinto, Turner
2B: Rosario, Polanco
SS: Santana
3B: Sano
OF: Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, Kepler

I don't know if these guys ever become starters:
Travis Harrison, Kennys Vargas, Dalton Hicks, Adam Brett Walker, Niko Goodrum, JD Williams.

And these guys who almost assuredly won't be ready, but might be starter worthy:
Amauris Minier, Brian Navarreto, Lewin Diaz, Position player from 2014 and 2015 Drafts given he's top 2 Rounds, and others TBD.

#49 Otwins

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Posted 11 February 2014 - 12:57 AM

I think Ryan did just fine. He still had the money left to add Garza. I was thinking he did not like the four year deal. You couldn't guess that Garza was returning to the Twins at a discount. He can still add a pitcher now if they are so cheap that it is a great value. You can move Pelfrey to the bullpen. $5Mil per year for a bullpen guy would not crush their budget. I think for a non-contender to land Arroyo it would have taken 3 years 30 million. No value there. I would think that Santana and Jimenez are looking for non-contenders to over pay also.

#50 oldguy10

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Posted 11 February 2014 - 08:04 AM

To me when it is said Correia is "fine" it means fans are satisfied with mediocrity and will settle for innings eaters instead of better pitchers.

#51 notoriousgod71

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Posted 11 February 2014 - 10:17 AM

To me when it is said Correia is "fine" it means fans are satisfied with mediocrity and will settle for innings eaters instead of better pitchers.


Since when is 185 innings an innings eater? He averaged less than six innings per start which, by definition, can't even be a considered a quality start.

#52 spycake

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Posted 11 February 2014 - 10:42 AM

I also feel the Twins in year 3 of this arrangement will be considerably better than the Brewers. The Brewers don't have a farm system with any talent in sight. The Twins have the following possible contributors offer an improvement over what was on the field in 2013 to help out Nolasco in 2015.


The guys you list have absolutely nothing to do with Nolasco vs. Garza (or signing both Nolasco and Garza this offseason).

And the Brewers are obviously hoping to contend in 2014 and 2015 -- they still have a ton of MLB talent on their roster. They're probably +20 wins over the Twins right now. Yes, they need to improve their farm system, but they can't (and shouldn't) punt the next two years and focus on 2016, which seems to be more akin to the Twins strategy. And 20 wins is still a huge gap to overcome in 3 seasons (much less reverse as implied by "considerably better").

And frankly, most of the guys you list aren't really that great of prospects. Buxton and Sano are great but they are only two guys and neither has even hit AAA yet. The difference between the Twins and Brewers in 2016 is really going to come down to: how well their current MLB talent ages (advantage: Brewers, simply due to quantity), how well they develop ALL prospects including non-elites (leaning Twins with Buxton and Sano although no real results are in yet), and how well they sign MLB free agents (leaning Brewers).

#53 spycake

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Posted 11 February 2014 - 11:02 AM

Since when is 185 innings an innings eater? He averaged less than six innings per start which, by definition, can't even be a considered a quality start.


Innings-eaters span the same quality spectrum as any other players, I'd suggest.

I'd say 185 IP is a fair innings-eater. It at least implies reasonable health/effectiveness and close to 6 IP per start. But, Correia has only hit that level twice in 5 seasons starting, so he's a bit of an inconsistent innings eater (which somewhat defeats the purpose of the role). Nolasco is a better example of innings-eater, but even he has walked the line of effectiveness a bit.

Obviously, 200+ IP is a BETTER innings-eater, and probably how the term is more likely used by fans of contending ballclubs. Guys like Arroyo, or even Lohse or Ervin Santana (or Garza when healthy) -- in reality, quality #2 starters. It will be nice to get back to that frame of mind again, and leave 2012-2013 behind!

I'm more concerned when we profile Hughes and Pelfrey as effective innings-eaters, when neither logged 150 IP last year or even averaged 5 IP per start. I don't know how likely those guys are to even equal Correia's 2013 level, which seems like the upper limit on their upside.

#54 tobi0040

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Posted 11 February 2014 - 12:13 PM

Innings-eaters span the same quality spectrum as any other players, I'd suggest.

I'd say 185 IP is a fair innings-eater. It at least implies reasonable health/effectiveness and close to 6 IP per start. But, Correia has only hit that level twice in 5 seasons starting, so he's a bit of an inconsistent innings eater (which somewhat defeats the purpose of the role). Nolasco is a better example of innings-eater, but even he has walked the line of effectiveness a bit.

Obviously, 200+ IP is a BETTER innings-eater, and probably how the term is more likely used by fans of contending ballclubs. Guys like Arroyo, or even Lohse or Ervin Santana (or Garza when healthy) -- in reality, quality #2 starters. It will be nice to get back to that frame of mind again, and leave 2012-2013 behind!

I'm more concerned when we profile Hughes and Pelfrey as effective innings-eaters, when neither logged 150 IP last year or even averaged 5 IP per start. I don't know how likely those guys are to even equal Correia's 2013 level, which seems like the upper limit on their upside.


As a point of reference, 185 IP would have been 54th last year, 200 IP would have been 34th (of 150 starters). Adam Wainwright led the league with 241 in the regular season., Kershaw was at 236. Opinions may vary here, but I would not want my $30M arm pitching that many innings unless they are so good that their total pitchers are in line with the 200-220 IP guys.

#55 IronMonkee

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Posted 11 February 2014 - 02:01 PM

Late to the party, so this probably won't get read.
I take issue with the Terry Ryan was more aggressive than usual train of thought. TR spent more, and bought more expensive things and usual, but he has never waited out the market. It seems to me he has always acted quickly to pick up pieces. If TR was going to pick up pitchers, it was always going to be ASAP. I don't get where people are seeing that as breaking from form. Did we all forget that Bill Smith was the one that waits out the market?

#56 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 February 2014 - 02:41 PM

To be clear, ironmonkee, he signed guys to larger contracts than he ever has.....but he hasn't spent more on the budget.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#57 spycake

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Posted 11 February 2014 - 02:56 PM

Late to the party, so this probably won't get read.
I take issue with the Terry Ryan was more aggressive than usual train of thought. TR spent more, and bought more expensive things and usual, but he has never waited out the market. It seems to me he has always acted quickly to pick up pieces. If TR was going to pick up pitchers, it was always going to be ASAP. I don't get where people are seeing that as breaking from form. Did we all forget that Bill Smith was the one that waits out the market?


TR had never really actively participated in the FA market before. I guess that gets interpreted as indefinite waiting!

#58 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 11 February 2014 - 03:48 PM

Why did we trade Garza again? His ego? Or he hated us? Can't remember?????


That... and at the time we had an overabundance of starting pitching and desparately needed hitting... so we traded our two best starters and Jason Bartlett for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, Carlos Gomez, and a bunch of filler...

Now I'm having flashbacks... and not the good kind.

#59 twinsfan34

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Posted 11 February 2014 - 11:26 PM

The guys you list have absolutely nothing to do with Nolasco vs. Garza (or signing both Nolasco and Garza this offseason).

And the Brewers are obviously hoping to contend in 2014 and 2015 -- they still have a ton of MLB talent on their roster. They're probably +20 wins over the Twins right now. Yes, they need to improve their farm system, but they can't (and shouldn't) punt the next two years and focus on 2016, which seems to be more akin to the Twins strategy. And 20 wins is still a huge gap to overcome in 3 seasons (much less reverse as implied by "considerably better").

And frankly, most of the guys you list aren't really that great of prospects. Buxton and Sano are great but they are only two guys and neither has even hit AAA yet. The difference between the Twins and Brewers in 2016 is really going to come down to: how well their current MLB talent ages (advantage: Brewers, simply due to quantity), how well they develop ALL prospects including non-elites (leaning Twins with Buxton and Sano although no real results are in yet), and how well they sign MLB free agents (leaning Brewers).



You have to be kidding...right? Where are the Brewers going to get 12 WAR more from their players while the Twins players do not improve at all???

The Brewers only had 8 Wins more than arguably the worst Twins team ever (2013).




As far as off-season 2014. Brewers lost their leadoff hitter for a spot reliever from the Royals. They signed Garza. They get a full season from Ryan Braun. So Garza...maybe...maybe 3 WAR...Braun goes Mike Trout on the world? His best WAR season is 5.9 bWAR. And he's going to be 30 this year and coming off the juice. Which hasn't fared well for many players (Melky Cabrera, A-Rod, et al).

Where does the 12 WAR come from? And assuming the Twins don't improve at all...

But...

The Twins signed Nolasco, Hughes, and get a 2nd year after surgery from Pelfrey. Willingham is coming back. Hicks could do better. Only player who could do 'worse' is Brian Dozier, every other player or position could only improve.

Can't say that about the Brewers. 12 more WAR...from who? And the Twins have to NOT improve. Makes no sense.

Add to that, the Cardinals and Pirates are only getting better in 2014. Wacha and Martinez will be up all year. Peralta is an improvement at SS. Tavarez may start with the club. A whole healthy season from Allen Craig?

The Pirates...a whole season of Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano. Gregory Polanco may be up by June. Jameson Taillon as well.

Now for the AL Central:
The Indians could lose their TOP 2 staters - Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir (already lost to the A's).

The Tigers? They got Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder (downgrade). Lost Jonny Paralta to the Cardinals in free agency. They pretty much gave away a 200 innings #3 (Doug Fister) to the Nationals for a backup 2B and 2 relief pitching prospects. The lost their closer, Joaquin Benoit, but signed Nathan. Then they lost arguably one of the top 5 managers of the past 40 years in Jim Leyland.

The Royals may lose Ervin Santana.

Again...the Twins got better in their own division while the rest of the Division seems to be getting worse.

As far as the Prospects I listed. Let's just go with "Top 100 BA prospects" instead of "great" it's more exact.

I didn't even list the Twins pitching prospects for overall record, just for those who would help Nolasco get more wins than Garza. Twins have more pitching depth than hitting depth in the Minors. And it was for possibilities to affect 2015 (Nolasco's 3rd season - as the context of my reply is important).

Of those prospects...

Top 100 Baseball America Prospects:
Oswald Arcia #41 (2012)
Aaron Hicks #19 (2010)
Byron Buxton #1 (2014)
Miguel Sano #top 10 (2014)

Kepler, Rosario, and Polanco may make a top 100 (my copy hasn't arrived yet).

The Brewers:
Taylor Juggmann #70 (2012)
Jed Bradley #71 (2012)

And honestly, it looks like neither of those guys will make the Pros.

They don't have a top Prospect for 2014 in the top 100 for any publication.

AKA...no help likely in sight for a minimum of 4 years. Advantage Twins for the next 4 years...easy. No contest unless they land a Buxton or two in the draft (not likely with their 20+ wins over the Twins though).

Free Agency 2014? I'd say the Twins have the advantage unless the Brewers land someone better to give them the edge.

20+ Wins though...

Edited by twinsfan34, 12 February 2014 - 12:16 AM.


#60 IronMonkee

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Posted 12 February 2014 - 12:42 AM

To be clear, ironmonkee, he signed guys to larger contracts than he ever has.....but he hasn't spent more on the budget.


You're missing my point, when he is getting free agents he gets them ASAP, Hammer, Jamie Carrol, Rondell White and all the crap he picked up in the mid 2000s. He gets his shopping list and gets it done. TR has never waited to see who goes on clearance. So that he'd jump on what he wants early is sticking to form, not being abnormally aggressive. It gets missed because we aren't used to seeing him make it rain at all, but he's buying what he wants early, same as always.

Edited by IronMonkee, 12 February 2014 - 12:49 AM.
awkward wording