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Article: Did Terry Ryan Act Too Aggressively in Free Agency?

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#21 Jim Crikket

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 12:16 PM

Well, the other argument is that they could still be competing to sign Santana or Jimenez, who may both be better than any of the names mentioned, but I don't have much issue with shying away from the draft pick compensation. That's a lot to give up in order to bring on risk-saddled pitching contracts.


Actually, I question whether shying away from 2nd round draft pick compensation is wise if you've identified a free agent that you believe will help your team compete now and for a year or two in to the future. But I agree with shying away from it with regard to Jimenez and Santana. I really have very little confidence that either pitcher will turn out to be wise investments for the money they've been wanting, alone, much less when you consider the draft pick you lose on top of the money.
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#22 James

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 12:26 PM

Nick, it's a good article that brings up some interesting points.

I don't think we'll really know if he was too aggressive until we see the performance of some of these guys. I am in the camp that he wasn't too aggressive.

First, as you pointed out, sending the message to the fan base was important. Second, there is no way for us to know how the market would have been had the Twins not been aggressive. There is a good chance that if they had not signed anyone early, the price for a guy like Garza may have gone up. TR was pretty much the first GM to act this offseason when it came to pitching, and thus set the market. I think when we look back it a few years from now, these will end up looking like good signings and good values.

Sure, Garza would have been nice at that price, but if was the first guy that the Twins signed, I don't think he would have been here at the same price. I think Garza gave the Brewers a little bit of a discount, and probably got a little nervous about not having a contract in January. Who knows though...

#23 ALessKosherScott

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 12:42 PM

When you're coming off a rotation in 2013 that featured five guys who could best be dubbed 4A starters, I'm not sure you can ever act "too aggressively."

#24 cmb0252

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 12:47 PM

I was happy with the deals when it happened and I'm happy with them now. People complain about how unaggressive Ryan is but then he is aggressive and people complain he was too aggressive.... Can't have it both ways. Even if he over payed, which has yet to be determined, who cares? If he did it isn't by much and we still have plenty of money available.

#25 Kwak

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 01:03 PM

No, Ryan wasn't too aggressive. Acting early to "lock-in" the price prevents a situation where price "runs-away" when the supply dries-up. In this manner, it is more likely that he pitchers waited too long hoping for a higher price--and the demand slacked instead!

#26 DaveW

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 01:11 PM

No.

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#27 Old Twins Cap

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 01:20 PM

If Tanaka is not posted, and there were real questions about that all through December, if he isn't posted, the market would have an extra $150M sloshing around looking for hurlers. Ryan didn't know, nor could he know if Tanaka would be posted. He just knew the risks of waiting to find out. In the long run, needing three arms and having the dough available to spend, he did the prudent and wise thing: lock up the guys you can live with early on.

#28 Dman

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 01:22 PM

I felt Nolasco and Hughes were both overpays but the way the contracts we have are structured I don't see it hampering what they can do in the future so I don't think it really matters. Personally I like the fact they went out and got the guys they liked early rather than waiting for the scraps at the end. I liked the aggressive approach this year and I don't think it hurt them.

I really think teams value the deep talent in this years draft and don't want to lose a pick for the high priced pitchers that are left. It is a very odd year for FA especially considering the extra money coming in for teams. I really thought the prices would go through the roof this year. I hope the Twins make some good selections in the draft and remain aggressive in FA.

#29 troyhobbs

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 01:41 PM

Wish he would've been equally aggressive getting some bats in the lineup. Bottom 5 in BA and runs scored and nothing done to address that. Although I'm not sure competing in 2014 was ever a realistic goal anyway.

#30 Monkeypaws

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 02:06 PM

The Twins targeted a couple guys they wanted, and they got them.

I see nothing wrong with taking care of business like that.

#31 Boom Boom

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 02:15 PM

Not aggressive enough, IMO. The Twins needed offensive help and Ryan didn't go after that.

#32 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 02:21 PM

No. They needed pitching, they paid fair amounts for that pitching. I'm not sure why this is even really a question.

#33 notoriousgod71

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 02:42 PM

It's not that he was too aggressive. It's that he signed mediocre players. Nolasco is an improvement but that's not saying a lot. Hughes and Pelfrey do not help this organization win games.

#34 spycake

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 02:58 PM

I have no problem with TR acting quickly, if only to quickly address the perception from past offseasons that the Twins wouldn't act at all. It was a big relief to get that out of the way.

However, I don't think acting early should necessarily preclude continued action. As much as we may still want to sort through a few of our 2013 strugglers, we were probably the closest team in the league to having 5 wide open rotation spots to fill (basically, only KC on a 1 year 5 mil deal stood in the way of that, and that's hardly going to block anybody).

Waiting on Pelfrey and/or making a push late for the remaining guys could have been a very good value play to inject some much-needed upside to the rotation. This is all the more important when TR's quick-strike targets were all of very modest upside. As it is, as much as we've "stabilized" the rotation (very important after 2012-2013), we're still counting on our minor leaguers or some future FA class to provide all the upside. Would have been nice to kill two birds with one stone, or rather address two needs (stability and upside) with at least one signing.

#35 tobi0040

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 03:19 PM

It's not that he was too aggressive. It's that he signed mediocre players. Nolasco is an improvement but that's not saying a lot. Hughes and Pelfrey do not help this organization win games.


I think Phil Hughes will help this team win games. If you take his career line of 4.54 ERA and 7.6 K/9 at face value, that is certainly is an improvement over the 5.25 ERA our starters put up last year.

If you remove his numbers at the new yankee stadium, you are left with a career 4.26 ERA. He debuted at 20 and is only 27. I think was a very good buy low situation. The ballpark should go from a head-wind to a tail wind as he is a fly ball pitcher and tougher on righties.

Edited by tobi0040, 10 February 2014 - 03:40 PM.


#36 jmlease1

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 04:15 PM

I felt like we overpaid a little on Nolasco, but I'm ok with the aggression. Considering the Twins major needs and the state of the market, it's probably a good idea to be aggressive. It's not like the twins were just looking for one guy to fill in the back end, you know?

The Garza contract is interesting; I expected him to be a bit more expensive, but I wonder if injury concerns were a bigger fear with him? I would have preferred Garza over Nolasco, but you can't know if that's a real choice. I vastly prefer Nolasco over say...Arroyo.

#37 johnnydakota

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 04:29 PM

No Ryan didnt act to quickly, He did in fact wait to long to add a better Catcher, and should have added a better arm then Pelfrey , even if he lives up to his career average stats.

But to me each and every year the Twins should know who they want come the end of september, and target those players the first day they are eligible to, then have plan B,C, and D if they cant sign the ones they want.

It would be nice to have 95% of your roster in place before the start of the new year,even if you dont get your Teams name in the paper much after it

#38 Heimer

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 04:39 PM

Why did we trade Garza again? His ego? Or he hated us? Can't remember?????

#39 Riverbrian

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 04:49 PM

I believe the Front Office identified pitchers that they thought made sense for the Twins in terms of cost and potential future performance and then they made an assessment of the potential cost of those pitchers.

Using that... I believe they made an offer a little higher than that assessment and presented something that would bring them to Minnesota. After some negotiation... they got a deal done with Starting Pitching that was near the very top of their list and starting pitching that did not feel they would get a better offer by waiting and stretching out the process.

I guess that's a couple of paragraphs that can be condensed to:

No... I don't think they moved to soon.

I'm not a Hughes fan but I'm glad we got him and Nolasco and Pelfrey when we did. We needed arms and I'd hate to get shut out by trying to wait out the process.

If we were still trying to sign some ball chuckers right now in February. We'd have a fan base that is going nuts.

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#40 Jerr

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 06:18 PM

No way was it too, aggressive, as we needed pitching and got the types the Twins figured were right. I don't get all the Garza love here, as he hated it here:confused: I doubt, if he ever would agree to coming here.
I do worry about the bats, but I figure next year is to see what pitching we have and some bats are in our minor league. Patience is such a hard thing at times;)