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Emilio Bonifacio DFA'd

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#41 mike wants wins

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Posted 05 February 2014 - 02:42 PM

a win in free agency costs 6-7MM......do we think he's .5 WAR? do we think our R is really worth zero?

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#42 Danchat

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Posted 05 February 2014 - 03:11 PM

I'd really like to add Bonifacio to our bench. He could push Plouffe and back up all the outfield spots. I think he's worth the $3M, I just wouldn't pay him anything more than that. I am afraid that his hitting could fade, but his speed compensates for that. If we can get him, Parmelee is likely screwed.

#43 Jham

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Posted 05 February 2014 - 03:21 PM

Players like Bonifacio are almost always tradeable in July for cash and low to mid-range prospects which make signing him even less of a risk. Signing a player like Boney who seems like a gamer willing to play multiple positions, come of the bench, steal bases, etc. seems like a good move to me. Best case, we pay half the contract and acquire some more talent in return. Will it make us a contender? No. But a series of similar savvy moves that continuously deepens the organizational talent pool will given time.

#44 nicksaviking

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Posted 05 February 2014 - 03:21 PM

Bonifacio career OPS .662
Presley .715
Better place discipline. Over 300 ab Bonifacio would be on base 5 more times, but Presley is more likely to start in scoring position.


While I'm not a big Presley fan, I think it's safe to say he'll be making the team regardless of any bench pieces added. You need to compare Bonifacio to Mastroianni and/or Escobar. If it's OPS you want (from a utility guy? I simply hope to get him on base) those two need to be purged from the discussion.

#45 The Wise One

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Posted 05 February 2014 - 04:05 PM

a win in free agency costs 6-7MM......do we think he's .5 WAR? do we think our R is really worth zero?


His WAR value probably comes from his ability a 2B.
The fangraphs article said that he is worse than average at short, third and center. Worse than average with a bat. The money isn't the issue. The issue is at positions other than 2B does he hurt the team? The fielding numbers one Baseball Reference would say yes. The notion that he would push players at the other positions is not provable with what has been written. If you need a backup 2B and a disaster plan (last option) for other positions, by all means claim him.

#46 jokin

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 12:52 AM

It hasn't happened because the Twins don't want to give up the 2nd round draft pick or pay his demands for a backup 1B and part-time DH.

Oh, and for those questioning $3M for Bonifacio, that's Nick Punto money.


Anyone looking at Morales should not be signing him with the expectation that he would be a part-time DH, Morales's contract demands are based on expectations of playing regularly. He's a switch hitter with nearly career and 2013 identical splits. He played in 156 games last year, only 4 as a PH.

#47 jokin

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 01:22 AM

His WAR value probably comes from his ability a 2B.

Worse than average with a bat.


Not entirely true in either sentence when taken in full context, but 2nd is his best position. His potential value also comes from:

an OBP of .331 w/ a BA of .269 since 2010 - overall league average over that time actually is only .318 OBP/.253 BA, and league average at 2B since 2010 is .319 OBP/.257 BA (by contrast, Dozier has a career OBP of .297/.240 BA and only .312/.244 in 2013),

roster-extending high positional and hitting flexibility,

and especially, as the Petriello Fangraphs article notes, he is tied for the 7th most valuable baserunner since 2010, even with much fewer than average PAs,

if he hits his averages since 2010 (.331/.267), based on ZIPS projections, he would easily lead the team in SB, be second in BA and third in OBP.

He's a DFA because he is far from a perfect player, that doesn't mean that he doesn't offer value to a team in the right situation.

Here's a prediction: LA or NY will pick him up.

Edited by jokin, 06 February 2014 - 01:57 AM.


#48 The Wise One

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 04:02 AM

Not entirely true in either sentence when taken in full context, but 2nd is his best position. His potential value also comes from:

an OBP of .331 w/ a BA of .269 since 2010 - overall league average over that time actually is only .318 OBP/.253 BA, and league average at 2B since 2010 is .319 OBP/.257 BA (by contrast, Dozier has a career OBP of .297/.240 BA and only .312/.244 in 2013),

roster-extending high positional and hitting flexibility,

and especially, as the Petriello Fangraphs article notes, he is tied for the 7th most valuable baserunner since 2010, even with much fewer than average PAs,

if he hits his averages since 2010 (.331/.267), based on ZIPS projections, he would easily lead the team in SB, be second in BA and third in OBP.

He's a DFA because he is far from a perfect player, that doesn't mean that he doesn't offer value to a team in the right situation.

Here's a prediction: LA or NY will pick him up.


Below average defense, below average hitting ability. If he regresses to his mean, he will be a .265 hitter. Singles, walks, litte power. You can read stats better than what you chose to present to see how almost every Twins batter has a beter OPS. .
The valueo emilio is as a backup 2b, so his glove does not hurt you. Otaining a 3b, rf and shortstop are a far larger prioriy that would generatea far better outcome than a utility player.
Golly gee, the Dodgrs and the Yankees need a backup or a starter at 2b. Considering what the Dodgers gave up for Butera, the Twins will not overbid compared to the Dodgers..

#49 stringer bell

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 06:55 AM

You're probably right Jokin, although the Dodgers have signed two utility infielder types already this offseason. Here is what I see--Bonafacio is a good baserunner (undeniable), he's capable at second, better defensively than what the Twins have playing either corner OF spot, and his hitting is OBP-fueled and is marginal. Marginal is adequate for someone who brings his versatility. Bonus questions: Can he be a platoon alternative at third and short? Can he handle center field? If the answers are positive to the two bonus questions, then yes the Twins should pick him up. If he could raise his offense a tick or two, then he should be in the lineup almost every day somewhere.,

#50 jokin

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 10:42 PM

Below average defense, below average hitting ability. If he regresses to his mean, he will be a .265 hitter. Singles, walks, litte power. You can read stats better than what you chose to present to see how almost every Twins batter has a beter OPS. .
The valueo emilio is as a backup 2b, so his glove does not hurt you. Otaining a 3b, rf and shortstop are a far larger prioriy that would generatea far better outcome than a utility player.
Golly gee, the Dodgrs and the Yankees need a backup or a starter at 2b. Considering what the Dodgers gave up for Butera, the Twins will not overbid compared to the Dodgers..


Since you chose the stat, you failed to point out that regression to the mean for his BA, to .265, fits in right in the same ballpark as the projected .267 BA that I quoted.... which again..

would qualify as the second highest projected BA on the team, along with the 3rd highest projected OBP. The Twins desperately need someone, anyone, at the top of the order or in the 9 spot that could give you an OBP at .331.

OPS is not really a part of this discussion, that can come from the middle of the lineup.

The part you also chose to ignore is that Bonifacio's potential role is that he can be plugged into multiple positions to spell his teammates at 6 positions and perform close to acceptably in the field at those various spots, meanwhile, giving your team higher net OBP, plus the 7th best baserunner in the league over the last 4 years, which makes up for much of his lack of SLG.

Edited by jokin, 06 February 2014 - 11:25 PM.


#51 darin617

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 11:11 PM

Too bad the Twins don't believe in the stolen base. You would think an average manager could figure out if you don't have much power at all you need to rely on speed to help manufacture runs. So it would be a waste of time to bring him in if you don't take advantage of his best asset.

#52 jokin

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Posted 06 February 2014 - 11:24 PM

Too bad the Twins don't believe in the stolen base. You would think an average manager could figure out if you don't have much power at all you need to rely on speed to help manufacture runs. So it would be a waste of time to bring him in if you don't take advantage of his best asset.



To be fair, Bonifacio is also good at taking the extra base, and Gardy is agressive in that respect. And it seems like he has granted latitude to those that have demonstrated skill sets.

#53 The Wise One

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 04:41 AM

Since you chose the stat, you failed to point out that regression to the mean for his BA, to .265, fits in right in the same ballpark as the projected .267 BA that I quoted.... which again..

would qualify as the second highest projected BA on the team, along with the 3rd highest projected OBP. The Twins desperately need someone, anyone, at the top of the order or in the 9 spot that could give you an OBP at .331.

OPS is not really a part of this discussion, that can come from the middle of the lineup.

The part you also chose to ignore is that Bonifacio's potential role is that he can be plugged into multiple positions to spell his teammates at 6 positions and perform close to acceptably in the field at those various spots, meanwhile, giving your team higher net OBP, plus the 7th best baserunner in the league over the last 4 years, which makes up for much of his lack of SLG.


How about WPA for a stat then? What does the player contribute? -1.63 for Bonafacio. Puts him behind all 2013 Twins except Hicks and Florimon.

#54 stringer bell

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 06:46 AM

Too bad the Twins don't believe in the stolen base. You would think an average manager could figure out if you don't have much power at all you need to rely on speed to help manufacture runs. So it would be a waste of time to bring him in if you don't take advantage of his best asset.

I'll defend Gardy here. I am sure that he believes in the stolen base, but under the right circumstances. The Twins have precious little speed to play with and most analysts says that a 75% success rate is the threshold to be an asset. The Twins have few players who can steal at a 75% clip, so there's that. The game situation has to be right and the Twins trailed big often in the last three years. Adding someone who can steal well above 75% of his attempts at the top or bottom of the order would be a good thing, and something that Gardenhire would use properly, IMHO.

#55 stringer bell

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Posted 07 February 2014 - 07:01 AM

BTW, if the Twins have some speed to be "harvested", it should happen this year. They have added one of the best baserunners ever to the coaching staff.

#56 jokin

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 12:50 AM

How about WPA for a stat then? What does the player contribute? -1.63 for Bonafacio. Puts him behind all 2013 Twins except Hicks and Florimon.



No question, that Bonifacio's time with the Blue Jays was a disaster, but other than that time in Toronto, his WPA is positive over the last 4 years, but this clearly is a stat that does little to reward the types of things that Bonifacio brings to the table. And more importantly, Fangraphs itself says this is an improper use of drawing an opinion on a player from its statistic:


Things to Remember:
● WPA is not highly predictive. Generally, it is not used for player analysis and projecting the future. Cumulatively, season-long WPA is also not predictive, making it an ineffective number for projections of a player’s talent.

Edited by jokin, 08 February 2014 - 12:53 AM.


#57 The Wise One

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 05:47 AM

No question, that Bonifacio's time with the Blue Jays was a disaster, but other than that time in Toronto, his WPA is positive over the last 4 years, but this clearly is a stat that does little to reward the types of things that Bonifacio brings to the table. And more importantly, Fangraphs itself says this is an improper use of drawing an opinion on a player from its statistic:


Things to Remember:
● WPA is not highly predictive. Generally, it is not used for player analysis and projecting the future. Cumulatively, season-long WPA is also not predictive, making it an ineffective number for projections of a player’s talent.


I did not use the statistic to measure future success. As you might have read WPA measures what has happened on a play by play basis. You cited a 2013 batting average compared to the Twins players as a reason to take on this player. I gave you a statistic that was more inclusive of what a player has done for the year and used it to compare what players contributed for that year. There is no upside to this kind of signing. He is a substitute utility player. There is no upside. I would rather they sign a career minor league player coming of a bad season or two that had the upside of being average.
Every past statistic on Bonifacio would show that his value is base running and playing second base. The Twins have Dozier. The pinch running duties could fall to any number of Twins players that ride the bench under the tutelage of Molitor except for Parmalee/Collabello survivor.

Edited by The Wise One, 08 February 2014 - 05:50 AM.
had to delete my opinion on someone putting meaning to a post that was not possible. It was a classic Ronald Reagan quote


#58 stringer bell

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 07:30 AM

Bonifacio has played 136 games at third base and 198 in the outfield, his only value is not as a second baseman. He offers a likely leadoff hitter and someone with plus baserunning skills, including speed. That he is capable of playing six positions and is better defensively than three of the Twins' incumbents gives him unique value to the Twins. As noted above, he isn't going to put the Twins over the top in the division race, but for $3M he can improve the club. I think it is worth it, if the Twins wouldn't have to part with an A or B prospect.

#59 Riverbrian

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 09:24 AM

Decent points on both sides.

I still believe he's perfect for the Twins.

He can push Plouffe at 3B until Sano can take over.

When Sano does take over OR Plouffe proves that he can and should play everyday. Bonofacio can move to another position.

He can also play CF. If Hicks doesn't make the club out of ST... We don't have a lot of CF'ers.

We need speed... Not for stolen bases... Just speed... We don't have speed. He has speed and we need speed.

He isn't as bad defensively as some are saying.

He's perfect for us... Go get him Terry Ryan.
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#60 cmathewson

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Posted 08 February 2014 - 10:12 AM

Meh. One season out of 10 with an OPS+ above 100. Eight seasons out of 10 with an OPS+ below 80. You can't steal first base. Pass.
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