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#1 TwinsTerritory

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 03:50 PM

It's a cold day and I have the day off from teaching, so let's pretend that you're the new Twins GM. Where would you go from here?

Here's my grand plan (in a world where nobody gets hurt and all prospects live up to their billing). Please bear in mind that as the Twins GM, my goals are as follows.
2014--progress, 73-77 wins
2015--above .500, competitive into August/September
2016 and beyond--playoff contender/participant

2013-14 Off-season
*Trade Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, and Kevin Corriea for Homer Bailey
*Sign Bailey to a 6 year/$95 million dollar contract that buys out his last arbitration year (he is going to make about $10 million in 2014 through arbitration)
*Trade Worley & Diamond for low-level prospects (one of them can stay if Deduno starts on the DL)

2014 Opening Day Roster
1. Presley CF
2. Dozier 2B
3. Mauer 1B
4. Willingham LF
5. Kubel DH
6. Arcia RF
7. Plouffe 3B
8. Suzuki C
9. Florimon SS

Bench-Fryer, Parmalee, Escobar, Mastroianni
SP-Bailey, Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Deduno
RP-Perkins, Burton, Fien, Duensing, Swarzak, Thielbar, Pressly

2014 Payroll Estimate: $90 million

2014 Summer
*Trade Willingham, Pelfrey & Burton for prospects
*Call up Sano, Gibson, Pinto & Tonkin

2014 September Call-ups
Buxton, Meyer & May

2014-15 Off-season
*Sign Nick Markakis to a 3 year/$30 million dollar contract
*Resign Suzuki to a 1 year/$2 million dollar contract
*Don't offer Duensing arbitration

2015 Line-up
1. Buxton CF
2. Dozier 2B
3. Mauer 1B
4. Sano 3B
5. Arcia LF
6. Markakis RF
7. Plouffe DH
8. Pinto C
9. Florimon SS

Bench: Suzuki, Parmalee, Escobar, Presley
SP: Bailey, Nolasco, Meyer, Hughes, Gibson
RP: Perkins, Fien, Tonkin, Thielbar, Swarzak, Deduno, Pressly

2015 Payroll Estimate: $95-100 million

This would leave the Twins with control of almost everyone heading into 2016 and plenty of money to get a free agent or two.


Now that I've killed an hour, feel free to rip my plans (or make positive suggestions):roll:

Edited by TwinsTerritory, 28 January 2014 - 03:53 PM.


#2 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 04:06 PM

SP-Bailey, Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Deduno

That rotation (once Gibson is up as well) is more than good enough to be .500 at least. Also I like the trade idea, however, trading Hicks while his value is bottomed out is not a good idea IMO (though I understand why you included him)

Also I think they need to address SS

#3 Boom Boom

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 04:07 PM

I don't know all the rules, but I'm pretty sure the Twins can't trade Rosario while he's suspended.

#4 TwinsTerritory

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 04:18 PM

I didn't know the rules about trading Rosario either and I couldn't find them anywhere. Could he be a PTBNL?

#5 edavis0308

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 04:37 PM

Sign AJ Burnett to a one year deal.

#6 S.

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 05:03 PM

Sign AJ Burnett to a one year deal.

His wife doesn't fly (I guess) and he has said he wants to be close to home. I assume that limits his options to only a few teams (pirates/orioles/phillies/nats/etc) that he'd be willing to play for, and I assume out of those very few teams, he's going to want to play for someone that has a decent chance of playing in the postseason if he is to sign a deal.

#7 CRArko

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 05:20 PM

I would retire, take the Golden Parachute, and let Terry Ryan have the job back.

#8 BigTrane

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 08:22 PM

Homer Bailey- love it for that alone! ;)
Feel free to pile on about Suzuki.

#9 mnfireman

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 08:33 PM

I tried to come up with something, but this roster is full of too many underperforming position players who are also redundant, meaning they are the same player. Willingham & Colabello; Parmalee & Kubel; Mastro & Presley; Escobar & Florimon; Suzuki & Fryer. No advantage gained by playing one over the other, whoever doesn't play has no trade value. Toss in Plouffe & Herrmann and there isn't much to get to excited about. Mauer is the only known value. Dozier & Arcia each had about a half season of good production and we don't know where Hicks is, but he did show signs of improvement before the final slump that got him sent down. This team is waiting for Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Pinto, Meyer, Walker, et al to arrive. If you ask me, Terry Ryan can keep the job for at least two more seasons then walk away, like before! :P

#10 Kwak

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 08:47 PM

Just don't go to the owner and say "we need to spend $30mm on players."

#11 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 09:26 PM

Sign Drew, 3/$30 +$1m buyout on 4th yr.

Sign Morales, 3/$24.

Give Hicks, Pinto, Arcia and Sano opening day slots unless they cough them up in spring training.

Lineup:
1. Dozier
2. Mauer
3. Willingham
4. Morales
5. Sano
6. Arcia
7. Drew
8. Pinto
9. Hicks

Bench: Suzuki, Escobar or Florimon, Plouffe, Mastro or Presley.

For another $18m-ish per year you've got a lineup that stands a chance to be decent, haven't blocked anyone, and haven't committed long term anywhere. When/if Buxton is ready, trade Willingham, or more likely, have Buxton replace the outfielder doing the worst or out with injury.

#12 halfchest

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 09:31 PM

I like some of it but I don't like trading Rosario and Hicks at this point. I think their value is down due to Hicks rough first year and Rosario due to the suspension. Just seems like it would be better to keep those guys for a year. However, they make the most sense to trade due to Buxton, Dozier, and Polanco being in the system. So I get it, just don't think it's good to trade low on guys. Maybe Polanco and Berrios instead? I'm thinking they're gonna want a pitcher in return for Bailey if they do trade him. Other than that I like the plan hate the bench in 2015 though. Hope we could get someone with a little more pop on that bench.

#13 pierre75275

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 09:52 PM

Not ripping on the plan but why would you trade away hicks and rosario for bailey during a year you dont expect to hit .500 anyway, especially when you can have him the next yr for a second rd draft pick and being the highest bidder? I would not trade for bailey but sign him in the offseason and sign drew this offseason for 3 +1 at less then ten million a yr. and I wouldnt resign suzuki either for 2015. otherwise i like it, especially the markakias signing

#14 ashburyjohn

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 09:55 PM

Didn't see any real discussion of that proposed Bailey trade. 1) Don't you think Cincy will get a better offer for him than a second-tier CF prospect, a converted 2B prospect (putting aside the suspension), and a journeyman SP? 2) Why would Bailey sign for $16M a year?

/ edit - taking into account pierre75275's comment, it seems like a trade that neither side might accept, all things considered

#15 Sconnie

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 10:10 PM

The Homer Bailey trade is a pipe dream, but a guy can dream can't he?

#16 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 10:31 PM

I also think Markakis retires an Oriole but who can know for sure.

#17 jay

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 10:51 PM

Lineup:
1. Dozier
2. Mauer
3. Willingham
4. Morales
5. Sano
6. Arcia
7. Drew
8. Pinto
9. Hicks

Bench: Suzuki, Escobar or Florimon, Plouffe, Mastro or Presley.


No question that lineup would score some runs. Good bench options if Sano/Pinto/Hicks struggle. I'm concerned about defense, but it's not significantly different than what we're set to trot out today. If Buxton makes it up mid-summer as suggested there, that helps a ton in that area.

#18 TwinsTerritory

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 11:11 PM

Not ripping on the plan but why would you trade away hicks and rosario for bailey during a year you dont expect to hit .500 anyway, especially when you can have him the next yr for a second rd draft pick and being the highest bidder? I would not trade for bailey but sign him in the offseason and sign drew this offseason for 3 +1 at less then ten million a yr. and I wouldnt resign suzuki either for 2015. otherwise i like it, especially the markakias signing


Good question! The only problem I see with waiting a year is that he is now a free agent and it only takes one desperate team. By trading for him now, the Twins would have a little leverage. There is always some value to a long-term security, especially for a pitcher that can blow out their elbow and never see the big pay day.

As far as Hicks and Rosario are concerned, I see them as good prospects that have a 50/50 chance of being MLB regulars. In my mind they each have about a 50% chance of being a solid major league player, so we're basically trading a left fielder for a top end pitcher (and we send Corriea back because we don't need 8 starters and it saves us a little money).

#19 TwinsTerritory

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 11:17 PM

[quote name='ashburyjohn']Didn't see any real discussion of that proposed Bailey trade. 1) Don't you think Cincy will get a better offer for him than a second-tier CF prospect, a converted 2B prospect (putting aside the suspension), and a journeyman SP? 2) Why would Bailey sign for $16M a year?

Cincinnati may receive a better offer, but 2 solid prospects and a decent starting pitcher may be their best offer. Hicks gives them a back-up plan if Hamilton can't hit. Rosario is a top 50 prospect. Corriea fills the 5 spot in their rotation at a very reasonable $5.5 million dollar value.

As for Bailey signing for 6 years/$95 million. He is arbitration eligible, so he is going to be paid about $10 million in 2014. Basically that would make the new money 5 years/$85 million. I'm having a hard time deciding on what he's worth on the open market. The Kershaw and Tanaka deals would leave me to believe he's worth over $20 million per year. However, the Garza deal and rumors about Santana and Jimenez lead me to believe that $17 million per year is reasonable for someone that has only had 2 above average years. I obviously have no idea what he and his agent are looking for, but I think $95 million dollars would be a big number for a guy with his career numbers.

#20 Riverbrian

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 11:29 PM

If I'm the GM... I want a frontline Starter and Speed... I'm not sure how to acquire it though because our trade value bottomed out and I don't want to part with prospects.
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