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Keith Law Rankings

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#61 cmb0252

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Posted 02 February 2014 - 01:48 PM

I'm definitely on the Thorpe bandwagon. If he wasn't from Australia he would be entering into this years draft because of his age. Callis mentioned awhile ago if he was in this years draft he would be a first round grade talent which is high praise. I know most people will be watching AA/AAA this year to follow our hitters but I'm honestly most excited to watch the pitchers in low A. I can't remember the last time I was this excited about a group of young arms.

#62 cmathewson

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Posted 02 February 2014 - 02:27 PM

Count me as one on the Thorpe bandwagon. He's in my top 10, ahead of Berrios. I wouldn't have said that before the Australian Winter League. I know it's probably at the level of the Midwest League, but he thoroughly dominated in all but one game. He was pitching against guys in their 20s. Impressive.
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#63 birdwatcher

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Posted 02 February 2014 - 03:14 PM

Count me as one on the Thorpe bandwagon. He's in my top 10, ahead of Berrios. I wouldn't have said that before the Australian Winter League. I know it's probably at the level of the Midwest League, but he thoroughly dominated in all but one game. He was pitching against guys in their 20s. Impressive.


Good point about Thorpe's test results from the Aussie winter league, against experienced hitters that know how to swing a wooden bat.

I've been thinking about Vielma, particularly in light of how completely meaningless the statistics are from the Dominican Summer League in forecasting success for position players. Maybe we shouldn't be too quick to dismiss him. Let's hope he's that good!

#64 twinsfan34

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Posted 02 February 2014 - 11:55 PM

Count me as one on the Thorpe bandwagon. He's in my top 10, ahead of Berrios. I wouldn't have said that before the Australian Winter League. I know it's probably at the level of the Midwest League, but he thoroughly dominated in all but one game. He was pitching against guys in their 20s. Impressive.


Wow, me too. Totally forgot about the Aussie Winter League...despite having just visited there a few weeks earlier.

Thorpe's game log:
http://web.theabl.co..._pbp&pid=626929

Other Pitchers in the Aussie Lg:
http://web.theabl.co...id=l595&lid=595

#65 Zephrin

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Posted 03 February 2014 - 07:42 AM

Sano at 8 is ridiculous. Typical KLaw and his Twins hating ways....


Baseball Prospectus has Sano at #14, so it seems like his "struggles" to adjust to AA pitching took a bit of shine off. Had he stayed in Ft. Meyers and continued mashing (not unreasonable at his age) he would probably be higher up this list, but less close to playing for the Twins.

#66 wagwan

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Posted 03 February 2014 - 07:48 AM

Wow, me too. Totally forgot about the Aussie Winter League...despite having just visited there a few weeks earlier.

Thorpe's game log:
http://web.theabl.co..._pbp&pid=626929

Other Pitchers in the Aussie Lg:
http://web.theabl.co...id=l595&lid=595


Many of those pitchers are in their mid to late twenties... the kid is doing well

#67 Steve Lein

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Posted 03 February 2014 - 11:37 AM

I hadn't seen that velo number. I've seen "touches 94 and sits at 92." That's not Radke stuff. That's Hughes stuff.


From a velocity standpoint, yes. But it's also his fastball that can become very hittable (the whole height and no downward plane thing), that's my main comment about needing Radke's pinpoint command of all his pitches to be a front-line guy. It's his development in that area that will make or break him, not his stuff, is what I'm saying I guess.

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#68 B Richard

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Posted 03 February 2014 - 01:16 PM

Is Thorpe going to get any rest at all before the start of full season ball? I would really not like to overwork the kid, especially as he is developing

#69 Steve Lein

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Posted 03 February 2014 - 01:43 PM

Is Thorpe going to get any rest at all before the start of full season ball? I would really not like to overwork the kid, especially as he is developing


He last pitched on January 2nd, and his Melbourne team didn't make the playoff's (the championship is this weekend), so he's theoretically been resting for a month now.

I would suspect, if they have plans to pitch him in Cedar Rapids this year, that he also doesn't start the year on their roster, but stays back in EST for a month or so. Not really any reasoning behind that other than they didn't move him up to E-Town at all in 2013, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#70 B Richard

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Posted 03 February 2014 - 02:11 PM

He last pitched on January 2nd, and his Melbourne team didn't make the playoff's (the championship is this weekend), so he's theoretically been resting for a month now.

I would suspect, if they have plans to pitch him in Cedar Rapids this year, that he also doesn't start the year on their roster, but stays back in EST for a month or so. Not really any reasoning behind that other than they didn't move him up to E-Town at all in 2013, but it wouldn't surprise me.


That sounds like a reasonable plan. I'm very excited to see some of the talent further down in our system get it going this year

#71 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 03 February 2014 - 03:51 PM

I wonder if him not moving up to Etown had something to do with the fact that he was still in high school last season.

#72 cmathewson

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Posted 03 February 2014 - 03:56 PM

I wonder if him not moving up to Etown had something to do with the fact that he was still in high school last season.


It had everything to do with that.
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#73 Thrylos

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Posted 03 February 2014 - 05:57 PM

Count me as one on the Thorpe bandwagon. He's in my top 10, ahead of Berrios. I wouldn't have said that before the Australian Winter League. I know it's probably at the level of the Midwest League, but he thoroughly dominated in all but one game. He was pitching against guys in their 20s. Impressive.



Here are his game logs:

Actually he just dominated in one out of 7 games (the 12/8 game; 7 IP, 0BB, 8K, 1H)
He had another very good game (12/13: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 5 K)
He had 3 decent games (11/24, 12/21 & 2/2)
and 2 horrible games (11/30 and 12/27.)

Encouraging? Of course. But not "dominating" (other than one game) and the jury is still out. The quality of the Aussie league is below independent leagues at this point...
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#74 cmathewson

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Posted 03 February 2014 - 09:56 PM

Here are his game logs:

Actually he just dominated in one out of 7 games (the 12/8 game; 7 IP, 0BB, 8K, 1H)
He had another very good game (12/13: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 5 K)
He had 3 decent games (11/24, 12/21 & 2/2)
and 2 horrible games (11/30 and 12/27.)

Encouraging? Of course. But not "dominating" (other than one game) and the jury is still out. The quality of the Aussie league is below independent leagues at this point...


Are we looking at the same thing? I see one bad game. I see several good games and a few dominant games. This is a matter of interpretation, and you seem only too quick to dismiss his efforts. Do you have a thing against foreign prospects not from the Caribbean? You have the same hypercritical attitude about Kepler.
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#75 Thrylos

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 07:00 AM

Are we looking at the same thing? I see one bad game. I see several good games and a few dominant games. This is a matter of interpretation, and you seem only too quick to dismiss his efforts. Do you have a thing against foreign prospects not from the Caribbean? You have the same hypercritical attitude about Kepler.


I think that it is semantics. I have nothing against foreign prospects or players (huge Luke Hughes fan). For me "dominant" was his single 1 hit 8 K effort. The rest are "good", "very good", "ok" and not so good. I cannot say that someone dominated if he pitched 5 innings gave 4 hits and walked 3. Sorry. He needs to show more to say that he is a top 10 prospect at this system. He is still a child. He has a great future potentially, but still some ways to go.
Kepler is a different story. He had one of 4 great seasons. The tools are there, but they need to translate to results for me. If he puts a 900 OPS season at A+ this season, call me a believer. He is the same age as Travis Harrison. Compare their results at CR last season.
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#76 cmathewson

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 07:55 AM

I think that it is semantics. I have nothing against foreign prospects or players (huge Luke Hughes fan). For me "dominant" was his single 1 hit 8 K effort. The rest are "good", "very good", "ok" and not so good. I cannot say that someone dominated if he pitched 5 innings gave 4 hits and walked 3. Sorry. He needs to show more to say that he is a top 10 prospect at this system. He is still a child. He has a great future potentially, but still some ways to go.
Kepler is a different story. He had one of 4 great seasons. The tools are there, but they need to translate to results for me. If he puts a 900 OPS season at A+ this season, call me a believer. He is the same age as Travis Harrison. Compare their results at CR last season.


OK, and I am not interested in arguing about semantics. But I will say your definition is on the stringent side. I was looking at the run column. If you pitch 5 or more innings (in winter ball, where they are trying to protect you) and give up one run or fewer in seven out of eight games, I would say your season was dominant. When you are 18 and playing against a bunch of 24 year olds, many of whom are at high A or higher, it validates dominance.

When Johan was winning Cy Youngs, he would have maybe one "dominant" game per month, by your definition. The rest of the time, he'd give up one or two runs over seven innings. His best seasons can rightly be described as dominant, even though he only had a shutout going with double digit strikeouts after seven innings once every five games or so.
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#77 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 08:26 AM

I think that it is semantics. I have nothing against foreign prospects or players (huge Luke Hughes fan). For me "dominant" was his single 1 hit 8 K effort. The rest are "good", "very good", "ok" and not so good. I cannot say that someone dominated if he pitched 5 innings gave 4 hits and walked 3. Sorry. He needs to show more to say that he is a top 10 prospect at this system. He is still a child. He has a great future potentially, but still some ways to go.
Kepler is a different story. He had one of 4 great seasons. The tools are there, but they need to translate to results for me. If he puts a 900 OPS season at A+ this season, call me a believer. He is the same age as Travis Harrison. Compare their results at CR last season.


Which is fair enough, everyone has their own definition of "dominant" or "good".

But I think you're being a bit harsh on the kid, if only because he's just wrapping up his age 17 season.

Those are some pretty outstanding performances from a kid who couldn't buy a pack of smokes in the US until November of 2013.

We have to keep in mind that 2014 is Thorpe's age 18 season. He's over a year younger than Kohl Stewart.

#78 Nate Haseman

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 08:40 AM

His BB/K rates are encouraging. So is his fastball. Personally, I would like to see him have success against hitters who are used to the wooden bat for a bit, instead of kids who just made the transition from aluminum to wood (that's what the GCL is) to call him a top ten prospect ahead of pitchers like May, Gonsalves and Eades. Let him have some success in E-town or CR and develop a good out pitch and I will join that bandwagon.


The adjustment from aluminum to wood isn't as drastic as it was pre-2011. The BBCOR bats that high school and college level ballplayers use now don't have much more pop than a good stick of maple, just a slightly bigger sweet spot. But I'm with ya, I want to see him face a few guys that can legally buy a beer before I'm calling shotgun on the Thorpe bandwagon.

#79 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 11:13 AM

I get that dominating can be different to different people. But remember the kid just turned 18, and much of his competition has had success at much tougher levels.... Luke Hughes mashed at AA one season. I get the whole league quality thing, but I see a kid who is excelling against competition that is much more advanced... quality of the league aside. To me, that's a great pospect.

I know this, I'll be following him this season.

#80 birdwatcher

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 11:50 AM

Here are his game logs:

Actually he just dominated in one out of 7 games (the 12/8 game; 7 IP, 0BB, 8K, 1H)
He had another very good game (12/13: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 5 K)
He had 3 decent games (11/24, 12/21 & 2/2)
and 2 horrible games (11/30 and 12/27.)

Encouraging? Of course. But not "dominating" (other than one game) and the jury is still out. The quality of the Aussie league is below independent leagues at this point...



You are bound to be challenged, thrylos, when you dismiss the results in the Aussie league by describing the league as underwhelming. You also dismissed his spectacular performance in the GCL by writing it off as competing against a bunch of kids struggling with a wooden bat. And yet, while ranking Thorpe as your #18 prospect because the GCL inflated his numbers, you ranked a virtually unknown GCL teammate Jose Abreu as your #23 prospect based on his marvelous numbers as a relief pitcher. How do you account for this?

I guess I'm picking on you here, but you've put your opinion out there. I find 12 rankings of Thorpe, all more favorable than yours. Same with Kepler, by the way: all 12 of the other experts rank him several slots more favorably in their rankings than you do. And with Kepler, you dismiss injuries, age, and inexperience as factors and simply cite the numbers. So that's where I get lost. Why just the numbers in Kepler's and Abreu's cases and then a blatant discounting of the numbers when it comes to Thorpe?