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Ervin Santana at 3/40

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#1 halfchest

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 09:03 AM

http://www.mlbtrader...ins-tigers.html

Who knows how accurate this is but according to Bob Dutton 3/40 is what Santana is likely to get after seeing the Garza contract. Would it be worth the Twins to explore a 3/40 deal for Santana and plan to trade Correia. Even if all you get is your money back for Correia who cares? Nolasco, Santana, Hughes, Pelfrey, Gibson/Deduno/Worley/Diamond wouldn't look too bad huh?

Looking back at Santana, he's been incredibly good and reliable the 3 of the last 4 years. In 2012 his HR Rate was almost double his career rate. Other than that he's had a solid ERA every year, pitched over 200 innings and made a minimum of 30 starts. Not sure why his HR spiked in 2012 but who cares.

Maybe Dutton is way off base though too. Santana doesn't have the injury history but does come with the draft pick compensation and has that one bad year out of the last four. I think he'd be worth the risk. Nolasco/Santana would be a decent 1-2 to run out there the next couple years while waiting for Meyer and Gibson to develop.

#2 Brad Swanson

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 10:04 AM

I'm not the biggest Santana fan, but it's hard to argue that he wouldn't be a huge upgrade over Correia. At 3/40, I'd sign that deal. I'd probably even go 3/45 if that's what it took.

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#3 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 10:06 AM

Santana's problem is health... I'd take him over Pelfrey or KC in a heartbeat in terms of upside. Not sure if I'd part with a pick on him though.

#4 halfchest

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 10:17 AM

Santana's problem is health... I'd take him over Pelfrey or KC in a heartbeat in terms of upside. Not sure if I'd part with a pick on him though.


I had heard that two but he's pitched over 30 starts the past four years and only one year did he fail to eclipse the 200 IP mark. That was 2012 when he still pitched 178 innings. So I don't think health is much of an issue at all. I suppose it's likely he was suffering through an injury in 2012 which may have lead to the poor statistics but still 3 of 4 good years is solid for a starting pitcher.

#5 cmathewson

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 10:29 AM

I had heard that two but he's pitched over 30 starts the past four years and only one year did he fail to eclipse the 200 IP mark. That was 2012 when he still pitched 178 innings. So I don't think health is much of an issue at all. I suppose it's likely he was suffering through an injury in 2012 which may have lead to the poor statistics but still 3 of 4 good years is solid for a starting pitcher.


Based on his history, health is relatively good. The question is whether that will continue. Is he a ticking time bomb? The Twins had the same issue with Garza. In that sense, a 3-year deal is more palatable than Garza's four-year deal. Personally, I would do it.
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#6 UCLA_YANKEE_COLA

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 10:43 AM

I'd do 3-$40 for Santana but only if they trade KC or can go back in time and not sign Pelfrey. I really want Gibson/others to have a shot of winning a spot out of ST. But a good chane would exist that Santana would be our best starter. With that rotation and a little growth in the lineup (Arcia mashes, Plouffe is slightly above terrible, Willingham rebounds) the Twins could be pretty exciting this year.

#7 Willihammer

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 10:50 AM

Its not often you get the chance to poach the no.2 starter off a team in front of you in the standings. Either Santana or Ubaldo would be terrific signings.

#8 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 10:59 AM

I don't like Ervin Santana. Never have for some reason.

With that said, I don't know how you pass him up at that price.

#9 nicksaviking

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 11:09 AM

I don't like Ervin Santana. Never have for some reason.

With that said, I don't know how you pass him up at that price.


I agree with this. Still, while his health hasn't caused him to miss time recently, as far as I know he still has been pitching with a torn UCL for about five years. Is that something that will eventually give out? A cynical person may think it finally gets worked on after he finally gets his big payday, not that I'm that cynical person.

#10 thetank

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 11:22 AM

Twins need more offense. Would be a good pickup with 30 or more starts, but, would have 4 FA SP signings so if a couple of young SP catch fire they could be stuck in the minors. Might have been better to have signed Santana than having signed Hughes.

#11 johnnydakota

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 11:27 AM

Compare Nolascos last 4 years with Santanas, and what do you see?
Pretty simple if you ask me.

#12 amjgt

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 11:28 AM

Based on his history, health is relatively good. The question is whether that will continue. Is he a ticking time bomb? The Twins had the same issue with Garza. In that sense, a 3-year deal is more palatable than Garza's four-year deal. Personally, I would do it.


Based on that logic, what player isn't an injury risk?

Injury history? - The guy can't stay healthy
No injury history? - The guy is due for an injury

#13 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 11:36 AM

It should be noted that in the case of Santana, the second round pick shouldn't even be a consideration. Whatever you'd get in the second round is probably going to be inferior to what you'll get for Correia in trade (and if they pick up another pitcher, they're almost obligated to move Correia to another team to clear up at least one spot for Worley/Diamond/Gibson/Deduno).

#14 Willihammer

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 12:04 PM

I agree with this. Still, while his health hasn't caused him to miss time recently, as far as I know he still has been pitching with a torn UCL for about five years. Is that something that will eventually give out? A cynical person may think it finally gets worked on after he finally gets his big payday, not that I'm that cynical person.


He has gotten this far, maybe its a non-issue at this point.

Heck R.A. Dickey has no UCL at all.

#15 johnnydakota

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 12:07 PM

I don't like Ervin Santana. Never have for some reason.

With that said, I don't know how you pass him up at that price.


The real question is, what would we have to pay for him? with the Yankees and Dodgers showing interest, im guessing we will have to out bid them ....Apperently 8 teams have interest in Santana , so he probally will either go where he has the best chance to win , or to the highest dollar,since we cant offer the 1st, we will have to out bid the rest if we want him

#16 halfchest

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 12:12 PM

All this said, and I started the thread, I don't think the Twins are interested. I guess you never know but I haven't seen them linked to him recently. Just wanted others opinions on if he goes that cheap. It's a far cry from the 100 million he was supposedly demanding at the beginning of FA

#17 cmathewson

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 12:56 PM

Based on that logic, what player isn't an injury risk?

Injury history? - The guy can't stay healthy
No injury history? - The guy is due for an injury


Well, in his case, he has had some elbow issues. Reports are he has been pitching with a partially torn UCL for some time. That is like Garza, who has a screw holding his UCL to the bone. They are both ticking time bombs. More innings means more wear and tear.
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#18 iTwins

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 01:28 PM

I don't like Ervin Santana. Never have for some reason.

With that said, I don't know how you pass him up at that price.


This.

For some reason, I've never been a fan of his. That being said, at that price, I'd be keen to giving him a chance. The team would have to find a taker for one of their fringe starters, but other than that, I don't see why the Twins would make this move if that's the cost associated with Santana.

It makes KC worse and improves the Twins - I'm all for it!

#19 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 01:51 PM

It makes KC worse and improves the Twins - I'm all for it!


I know this isn't the driving force behind you wanting Santana but I don't like this kind of thinking... Teams should do what's best for their franchise, not worry about how it impacts rivals. That kind of thinking leads to moves like signing Jacoby Ellsbury for a gajillion dollars through his age 147 season.

Really, I don't care about the deal's impact on Kansas City. I care about whether it's a good value for the Twins.

It's the same reason why I commend the Twins for taking what they perceive to be the BPA every draft. Drafting around "future needs" means you spend every draft chasing your own tail instead of just taking the player that has the most talent.

#20 halfchest

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 01:58 PM

It makes KC worse and improves the Twins - I'm all for it!


Now if we could just get Sale from the Sox and Verlander from the Tigers

#21 70charger

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 11:04 AM

Now if we could just get Sale from the Sox and Verlander from the Tigers


Depends. Are we willing to trade Duensing?

#22 TheLeviathan

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Posted 29 January 2014 - 11:34 AM

Depends. Are we willing to trade Duensing?


Yeah, but we can only include him one trade......right? It's a bit discouraging to think he'd only get us Verlander and not both.