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Baseball prospectus rankings

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#21 B Richard

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 02:17 PM

I personally like Sano more than Baez. Baez is older by 6 months and doesn't walk nearly as much. Sano has a better command of the strike zone, IMO. That's something that makes him more likely to have sustained success at the MLB level

#22 Jim Crikket

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 02:19 PM

Put me down with the people who aren't concerned about Sano's ranking. If you're in the top 20 or so of this list, you're there because you have All-Star type of ceilings. If one guy sees a possible red flag in Sano's season last year and another guy discounts it, that's fine.

We're on the verge of reaching the point where his ranking doesn't mean crap anyway. It's time (finally) to see what he can do on the field with Big League ballplayers.
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#23 iTwins

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 02:29 PM

Sano at 14 strikes me as peculiar, but I'm just pleased the Twins have 8 guys on the list. There's a lot of talent in this system, and as a fan, I'm eager to see it develop. (Plus we can't complain too much, we do have the #1 overall prospect...)

#24 Oxtung

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 02:33 PM

I have no problem with Sano's ranking at 14. His potential is wrapped up 100% in his bat and in his arm. If he strikes out a ton that reduces his offensive contributions significantly and if he can't hack it at 3rd and is forced to move to 1B his arm is worthless, not to mention the positional value decrease.

If he can cut down on his strikeouts enough that he can hit .280 with an OBP around .360ish that is a big win. Then if he can play defense well enough to stick at 3B you have a player who might be an MVP candidate. On the other hand, if he only hits .245 with an OBP around .320 and he is at 1B well now you have a good but not great 1B.

What a lot of you are missing is his BABIP. In the years that he has put up good batting averages his BABIP has been incredibly high. When his BABIP has approached more reasonable numbers his batting average falls too. The main difference between his season at A+ vs. AA? At Fort Meyers his BABIP was an absurd .397 so his batting average was .330. At New Britain his BABIP was .265 and so his batting average fell to .236. Both of those BABIPS are pretty extreme. If he can't fix his strikeout issue, then where that BABIP "normalizes" will ultimately determine his batting average.

#25 Oxtung

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 02:42 PM

Sano's "low" ranking would probably have to do with some of the contact struggles he had in AA. It's a legitimate concern, because it will make or break his career.

I also think Parks overvalues Lindor here, and probably a few of the pitching prospects. Most lists will have Sano either in the top 5 or top 10.


I actually think he's undervaluing Lindor. Lindor is arguably is the best defensive player in the minors regardless of position. He drew more walks than strikeouts last year and stole 25 bases in just 400 at bats.

Think about this for a minute. Andrelton Simmons who hits .300 with an OBP around .370 and steals 30 bases for you.

#26 cmathewson

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 02:46 PM

He raked against the bottom 3rd pitchers and struggled against the top 3rd....
and if you say he didnt struggle , why did he drop 11 places?


Why indeed? Well, it was because he had a two-week slump after he got called up to AA. That's the longest slump of his career so far. I haven't looked, but I venture a guess that the other guys on the list have had similar slumps. Buxton hasn't yet, but otherwise, it seems pretty silly to drop a guy so far because he had a slump in an otherwise extraordinary year.
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#27 Oxtung

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 03:03 PM

Two interesting non-Twins placements: Chris Owings at 28 and Lucas Giolito at 13.

Giolito has always had the "stuff" but he has hardly pitched since being drafted and is coming back from TJ surgery. Bundy seems to be a comp except that Bundy made it all the way to MLB before he had TJ surgery.

Chris Owings is a bit like Pinto. He was never considered anything special until he hit AA and AAA where he exploded. Parks has him at 28. MLB.com has him at 77. That seems like quite the difference.

Call me a Julio Urias Fanboi anytime you want. Man does he look like a stud in the making.

Eddie Rosario is the 3rd 2B listed. Apparently his struggles in AA didn't effect his placement much for Parks.

I wonder what it would take to trade for Luis Sardinas of the Rangers. He is a very intriguing player.

Parks must think that Manaea's injury troubles really affected his play last spring. I think most prognosticators are in wait and see mode. I really like the approach that the Royals took in the 2013 draft. If Manaea can come back....what a coup!

#28 Oxtung

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 03:11 PM

Why indeed? Well, it was because he had a two-week slump after he got called up to AA. That's the longest slump of his career so far. I haven't looked, but I venture a guess that the other guys on the list have had similar slumps. Buxton hasn't yet, but otherwise, it seems pretty silly to drop a guy so far because he had a slump in an otherwise extraordinary year.


Even if you exclude his first 2 weeks at AA he still only hit .254 and struckout 29% of the time. Neither of those are good. Nobody questions if he'll hit for power. But will he hit .240 or .280? That's the question, well along with do you think he'll play 3B or 1B.

#29 markos

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 03:38 PM

Eddie Rosario is the 3rd 2B listed. Apparently his struggles in AA didn't effect his placement much for Parks.


Interesting contrast with the MLB.com list from last week. Rosario was rated #8 for 2B, and didn't crack the top-100 list, whereas BP has him #3 for 2B and #60 overall. That is quite the difference of opinion. I'm curious how other sites (BA, Sickels, Law, etc) rank him.

#30 cmathewson

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 03:58 PM

Even if you exclude his first 2 weeks at AA he still only hit .254 and struckout 29% of the time. Neither of those are good. Nobody questions if he'll hit for power. But will he hit .240 or .280? That's the question, well along with do you think he'll play 3B or 1B.


So he plays in 67 games, and has an Aaron Hicks-style slump in the first 14. That leaves 53 games to get his average up to .254 from .100. In other words, he slumped for two weeks and hit over .300 the rest of the way. Two weeks of adjustment is hardly something you would base a rating like this on.
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#31 Oxtung

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 04:07 PM

So he plays in 67 games, and has an Aaron Hicks-style slump in the first 14. That leaves 53 games to get his average up to .254 from .100. In other words, he slumped for two weeks and hit over .300 the rest of the way. Two weeks of adjustment is hardly something you would base a rating like this on.


No. His first 2 weeks at NB aren't included in that .254 and 29% K rate. I used only games 14-67 at New Britain. Those are serious red flags. Even at Fort Meyers he had a 25% K rate which is very high. The reason FM looks so much better is that his BABIP was sooooo much higher it obscured the strikeout problem.

#32 Oxtung

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 04:10 PM

Interesting contrast with the MLB.com list from last week. Rosario was rated #8 for 2B, and didn't crack the top-100 list, whereas BP has him #3 for 2B and #60 overall. That is quite the difference of opinion. I'm curious how other sites (BA, Sickels, Law, etc) rank him.


AT the end of the 2013 season Sickels ranked Rosario 65th. He stated he likes Rosario as a hitter and that "he has figured out second base." The only 2B that is ranked higher is Kolten Wong at 47.

It will be interesting to see if he thinks the same for his pre-season 2014 list.

#33 righty8383

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 04:24 PM

Even if you exclude his first 2 weeks at AA he still only hit .254 and struckout 29% of the time. Neither of those are good. Nobody questions if he'll hit for power. But will he hit .240 or .280? That's the question, well along with do you think he'll play 3B or 1B.

That isn't even a question anymore. Only thing that will force a switch is if he has more arm problems, or he gets too big.

#34 righty8383

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 04:28 PM

Looking forward to the next few days. ESPN will be releasing Keith Law's org rankings tomorrow. Wednesday is the top 100. Then Thursday will be each team's top 10. Klaw is my favorite as far as prospects (both pro and amateur) writers go.

#35 Thrylos

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 05:13 PM

Well lets look at Sano at 14, he struggled in AA,


And this is the fine moment, when someone's .900+ OPS season is called "struggling"...

Sano in 2013:

New Britain: .915 OPS, .335 isoP, .108 isoD, .236 BA, 19 HR, 55 RBI (276 PA)
Fort Myers: 1.079 OPS, .325 isoP, .096 isoD, .330 BA, 16 HR, 48 RBI (243 PA)

Sano's contact rate was not as high in AA as in A+. That's it. And that was driven by a .397 BABIP in Fort Myers vs. .280 BABIP in New Britain. His career numbers have been around .350ish. Which means that he was unlucky in New Britain.

Edited by Thrylos, 27 January 2014 - 05:29 PM.

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#36 johnnydakota

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 05:21 PM

Why indeed? Well, it was because he had a two-week slump after he got called up to AA. That's the longest slump of his career so far. I haven't looked, but I venture a guess that the other guys on the list have had similar slumps. Buxton hasn't yet, but otherwise, it seems pretty silly to drop a guy so far because he had a slump in an otherwise extraordinary year.


Slump and an injurry?

#37 Oxtung

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 05:23 PM

That isn't even a question anymore. Only thing that will force a switch is if he has more arm problems, or he gets too big.


IMO it really comes down to what level of play are the Twins willing to accept at 3B. There is a spectrum ranging from elite to down right terrible. If the Twins believe they must have an above average defender at the hot corner then Sano is going to be moved. If they decide it's ok to be below average as long as his bat carries it's weight well then he might very well stick there. A good comp seems to be Cabrera, not that I think Sano is likely to hit like Cabrera or even field like Cabrera, but will his stick be enough to accept some defensive short comings.

Unfortunately for us this won't be resolved until we see him in the majors in the next few years.

#38 johnnydakota

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 05:43 PM

So he plays in 67 games, and has an Aaron Hicks-style slump in the first 14. That leaves 53 games to get his average up to .254 from .100. In other words, he slumped for two weeks and hit over .300 the rest of the way. Two weeks of adjustment is hardly something you would base a rating like this on.


Sano was what 19-20 years old playing against guys who are generally 2-3 years older?
Most player find the jump from A ball to AA the hardest, Im guessing his elbow was already bothering him by that time. Did he struggle ? Yup sure did, does every player at some time in there career struggle? Yup sure do, do I think we should release him? Heck no, Im guessing he will come back to AA and show what he can do healthy and fresh and all of this will be for not.Relax he was bumped down 11 spots on 1 list and yes there was some reasons for it, but that doesnt mean he should retire....

#39 markos

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 08:08 PM

AT the end of the 2013 season Sickels ranked Rosario 65th. He stated he likes Rosario as a hitter and that "he has figured out second base." The only 2B that is ranked higher is Kolten Wong at 47.

It will be interesting to see if he thinks the same for his pre-season 2014 list.


I think MLB.com had him ranked in the 60s at the end of the season also. I wonder how much his mediocre showing at the AFL hurt his ranking. In particular, it was probably the first time that a lot of scouts were able to see him play 2B regularly. When MLB.com released their top-10 2B, I recall Callis mentioning that he doesn't think Rosario sticks at 2B. Hopefully Rosario will be able to take about 1000 grounders a day while he is serving his suspension.

#40 twinsfan34

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 09:36 PM

Yea, the main indicators as to why Rosario dropped is he's played CF/LF mostly in the DR league. It appears he may be moving back to the OF.

Granted, as someone mentioned, he was still listed at 2B in their positional rankings. So not sure the first theory holds.

Carlos Santana played predominantly 3B for the Indians in the DR league. Others were also trying new positions.

I wonder also if the lost time will affect Rosario's development factor in their ratings.

I'm not sold on him being great. He'll make a lot of contact. Sounds like a Placido Polanco type, but if he's an OF, there might not be much room for him in the bigs, with the Twins or not as he doesn't have Juan Pierre type speed.