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Nelson Cruz may be forced to accept a one year deal

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#1 minn55441

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 07:08 PM

Another player that turned down his qualifying offer and may have it backfire on him. With any team that signs him forced to give up a draft pick, the market is no where near where he thought it would be when he made the decision to leave Texas.

Righted handed power is not an easy thing to come by. How low would the price have to go before he would turn into a valuable pick up.

On the positive side - you can't ever have too much depth on your roster and you can't ever have too much power. Worst case scenario is that he becomes a valuable trade chip at the break.

On the negative side - As a corner outfielder, he would probably end up taking away at bats from Arica. He is only one year younger than Josh Willingham.

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 08:43 PM

I'd prefer Kendrys Morales. Younger, switch hitter, can DH and spell Mauer at first a couple times a month.

#3 Thrylos

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 08:52 PM

On the negative side - As a corner outfielder, he would probably end up taking away at bats from Arica. He is only one year younger than Josh Willingham.


Got to add the whole Biogenesis mess to the negative side as well...
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#4 minn55441

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 09:01 PM

Got to add the whole Biogenesis mess to the negative side as well...


Good point. I was thinking about that same thing, but Jhonny Peralta didn't seem to have any problem finding a job after his suspension. Do you think that really enters into way teams seem to have passed him over? I was thinking more along the lines of aging power hitter that wasn't stellar in the field that may have had his stats inflated by the park he played and in and the talent protecting him in the lineup. Maybe his best years are behind him.

#5 TwinChargers

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Posted 26 January 2014 - 08:36 AM

If a batter is looking for a one year deal to up his value, the Twins and Target Field are not likely the place he's most likely to do it. I wouldn't mind being wrong though.

I agree with minn55441. Cruz isn't going to be bad, but I'd think his best years are definitely in the rear view.

#6 jay

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Posted 26 January 2014 - 01:25 PM

If a batter is looking for a one year deal to up his value, the Twins and Target Field are not likely the place he's most likely to do it. I wouldn't mind being wrong though.


The numbers actually show so far that TF hasn't been bad to RH pull power. Guys like Willingham, Reynolds, Soriano. Dozier did well with it last year, turning hard on fastballs. Plouffe has flashed it at times. Oh, and that guy we dumped would fit well also, JJ Hardy.

Cruz, though, is somewhat surprisingly more of a spray hitter. He uses center and right-center for a good amount of his power -- not a great fit for the confines of Target Field. That's not to say there isn't some dollar amount at which he'd make sense. With Willingham, Arcia, and Kubel on the roster though, I just don't see it happening.

#7 Thrylos

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Posted 26 January 2014 - 02:39 PM

Good point. I was thinking about that same thing, but Jhonny Peralta didn't seem to have any problem finding a job after his suspension. Do you think that really enters into way teams seem to have passed him over? I was thinking more along the lines of aging power hitter that wasn't stellar in the field that may have had his stats inflated by the park he played and in and the talent protecting him in the lineup. Maybe his best years are behind him.


Yeah, I agree. The point with the biogenesis mess, is that if his peak numbers were a product of that "aid", now he might even be worse than expected from a natural aging decline.

And some teams (the Cardinals being one of them) seem to have no problems with steroid abusers. Some others do. Don't know how the Twins feel, but they hired one to be their high A hitting coach, FWIW...
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#8 stringer bell

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Posted 26 January 2014 - 06:04 PM

The numbers actually show so far that TF hasn't been bad to RH pull power. Guys like Willingham, Reynolds, Soriano. Dozier did well with it last year, turning hard on fastballs. Plouffe has flashed it at times. Oh, and that guy we dumped would fit well also, JJ Hardy.

Hardy at Target Field as a Twin: .252, 1 HR, 23 RBI, .652 OPS. He OPSed .758 on the road that year. Maybe he's not a great fit at TF.

#9 Othercousin 324

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Posted 26 January 2014 - 08:58 PM

I went to Twinsfest on Friday and talked briefly to someone in the media. My sense is that Nelson Cruz is the FA the referred to. And yes, I would give up a 2nd round draft choice to sign him.

#10 twinscowboysbulls

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Posted 26 January 2014 - 10:59 PM

I went to Twinsfest on Friday and talked briefly to someone in the media. My sense is that Nelson Cruz is the FA the referred to. And yes, I would give up a 2nd round draft choice to sign him.


Even if it is a 1 year contract?

#11 jokin

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Posted 26 January 2014 - 11:43 PM

Hardy at Target Field as a Twin: .252, 1 HR, 23 RBI, .652 OPS. He OPSed .758 on the road that year. Maybe he's not a great fit at TF.


He played injured thoughout 2010.

JJ's Target Field slash as an Oriole:

.311/.380/.400/.780

Maybe he had something to prove.....And of course, since 2010, the concrete has setted at TF, as well.

#12 Jdosen

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 12:14 AM

I went to Twinsfest on Friday and talked briefly to someone in the media. My sense is that Nelson Cruz is the FA the referred to. And yes, I would give up a 2nd round draft choice to sign him.

I would be against this move. I'm not against giving up a draft pick in general, but it needs to be for the right player. Cruz is aging, can't play defense, can't walk, and hasn't been worth more than +1.5 WAR since 2010.
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#13 halfchest

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 08:53 AM

At the right price, it's worth giving up that draft pick to grab a guy like Morales/Cruz. If they have a good year you give them a qualifying offer or trade them at the break to recoup that loss.

I wish Morales had played some outfield more recently then he might be a very nice fit. Hasn't played any outfield since 2008 and then it was minimal.

Cruz is the opposite wish he had some versatility and he plays primarily RF where supposedly Arcia should end up.

Age and everything taken into account, I would be more for Morales than Cruz I think.

#14 jay

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 01:07 PM

Hardy at Target Field as a Twin: .252, 1 HR, 23 RBI, .652 OPS. He OPSed .758 on the road that year. Maybe he's not a great fit at TF.


His spray chart shows every homer from 2012-2013 falling between the LF pole and left-center. That fits TF. A bad year in 2010 while injured with total of 6 HRs on the season doesn't disprove that.

#15 TwinChargers

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 02:53 PM

If we are going to get a defensively less than stellar outfielder on our team, I'd rather get Juan Pierre. Two seasons ago he still hit for over .300 and swiped 37 bases. If he could hit even .270 and steal 20+ bases in a part time role I'd be happy. This team is lead footed, and having someone who opposing pitchers would have to think about while on the basepaths would be refreshing.

If we need a power threat OF, why not look at Bryan LaHair? His name might not be as flashy, but in under 350 AB he hit for 16 HRs and batted for about .260. That and he doesn't have the steroid cloud looming over his head. He can play some first base too in case something happens to Mauer.

#16 Siehbiscuit

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 03:39 PM

If we are going to get a defensively less than stellar outfielder on our team, I'd rather get Juan Pierre. Two seasons ago he still hit for over .300 and swiped 37 bases. If he could hit even .270 and steal 20+ bases in a part time role I'd be happy. This team is lead footed, and having someone who opposing pitchers would have to think about while on the basepaths would be refreshing.

If we need a power threat OF, why not look at Bryan LaHair? His name might not be as flashy, but in under 350 AB he hit for 16 HRs and batted for about .260. That and he doesn't have the steroid cloud looming over his head. He can play some first base too in case something happens to Mauer.


Pierre is washed up and LaHair hit about .220 last year in Japan. Pass and pass.

#17 TwinChargers

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 03:49 PM

Pierre is washed up and LaHair hit about .220 last year in Japan. Pass and pass.


My apologies on LaHair. I thought his numbers were from this last season. And while Pierre is definitely on the downside of his career, his .247 BA would have been an improvement for our typical OFer, and his 23 steals would have easily been team lead. Is he an all star? By no means, but he would be an improvement over what we have.

#18 S.

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 04:01 PM

With Willingham, Arcia, and Kubel on the roster though, I just don't see it happening.

This right here. Don't see it happening and would be annoyed if it did happen without trading Willingham. Last thing I want is for them to jerk around Arcia and not give him the ML ABs he should be getting all year.