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Another Free Agent?

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#161 TheLeviathan

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:16 PM

Drew actually had a better UZR and UZR/150 than Florimon in 2013.

http://www.fangraphs...lter=&players=0


And one year's UZR means as much in this debate as how often each ate Mcdonald's last year, because one year's UZR is irrelevant.

I've found, in general, that dWar corresponds most frequently to quality defenders. But it, like all defensive metrics, has it's flaws. But it's still a vastly superior one-year measure to UZR.

I'd also add that if we've reached the point that putting Drew on a pedestal requires us to claim he's a better defender than Florimon (utterly preposterous really)...than rational discussion the matter is probably over for both sides.

#162 JP3700

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:16 PM

Shortstops peak earlier and decline earlier. Overall, all players should be expected to decline significantly from ages 31 to 34. Drew is not an exception.


You should still look at it every player individually. Drew peaked at a later age and has a unique skill set for a SS.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, his defense isn't tied to his athleticism. He's never been and never will be a great athlete. He relies on positioning and anticipation. Similar to Hardy and Peralta.

On offense he's not the usual slap hitting/no walk shortstop who, once again, rely on athleticism. He draws walks and hits for power. Skill sets that generally age better.

I'm not saying that he won't decline. It's very likely he will. But I also don't expect him to fall off of a cliff in two years. A realistic decline would be:

2014: 3 WAR
2015: 2.5 WAR
2016: 2 WAR

So, he's going from an above average player to a league average player. League average players still have value. Especially at $10M, which is about the going rate for league average players.

We're paying Nolasco $12M a year for the next four years. He's going into his age 31 season, coming off of a year where he was a league average pitcher.

#163 jokin

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:18 PM

And I hope by 2016 we don't have to rely on a shortstop who was good, not great, in his peak who is WELL into his decline arc of his career and making 10 million. THere is a good chance he's as bad at the end of the contract as the guy he's replacing now.


I think his bat will be better than Florimon's, not only at 33, but at 43, as well. I would hope a third year with Drew is not an issue- as he's signed for only 2, but it's demonstrable with the Twins projected payroll in 2016 that an excess $10M on the books doesn't cripple them from making further moves, whatsoever.

#164 TheLeviathan

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:20 PM

I think his bat will be better than Florimon's, not only at 33, but at 43, as well. I would hope a third year with Drew is not an issue- as he's signed for only 2, but it's demonstrable with the Twins projected payroll in 2016 that an excess $10M on the books doesn't cripple them from making further moves, whatsoever.


When you figure out how to let MLB allow us to have one guy field and another guy hit for the same position the whole game - let me know. Otherwise, defense and offense matter. Florimon is a vastly superior defender and a vastly inferior hitter. There are valid reasons to not want to give up defense in the name of offense.

#165 Thrylos

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:23 PM

When you figure out how to let MLB allow us to have one guy field and another guy hit for the same position the whole game - let me know. Otherwise, defense and offense matter. Florimon is a vastly superior defender and a vastly inferior hitter. There are valid reasons to not want to give up defense in the name of offense.


It is figured out. It is called Designated Hitter. But he usual hits for the pitcher position. Doesn't have to, though...
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#166 jokin

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:26 PM

And one year's UZR means as much in this debate as how often each ate Mcdonald's last year, because one year's UZR is irrelevant.

I've found, in general, that dWar corresponds most frequently to quality defenders. But it, like all defensive metrics, has it's flaws. But it's still a vastly superior one-year measure to UZR.

I'd also add that if we've reached the point that putting Drew on a pedestal requires us to claim he's a better defender than Florimon (utterly preposterous really)...than rational discussion the matter is probably over for both sides.


Do you really want to go to the place where you accuse those who hold a valid different opinion as undue hero-worshipping and call the usage of opposing metrics as "irrational"? I merely pointed out you might be overrating Florimon's defense relative to Drew- because of Drew's experience at proper positioning and the ability to more consistently make the plays in front of him, UZR suggests he makes up elsewhere from the areas where he's clearly behind Florimon.

#167 TheLeviathan

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:26 PM

It is figured out. It is called Designated Hitter. But he usual hits for the pitcher position. Doesn't have to, though...


Somehow I don't think anyone is advocating that. Yet. But we're really going out of our way to make Drew flawless these days.

#168 TheLeviathan

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:28 PM

Do you really want to go to the place where you accuse those who hold a valid different opinion as undue hero-worshipping and call the usage of opposing metrics as "irrational"? I merely pointed out you might be overrating Florimon's defense relative to Drew- because of Drew's experience at proper positioning and the ability to more consistently make the plays in front of him, UZR suggests he makes up elsewhere from the areas where he's clearly behind Florimon.


Even UZR fans would tell you one year's worth of UZR is not a valid use of the stat.

I'm not overrating Florimon's defense. It's much better than Drew's. You are welcome to the opinion signing Drew would be smart. Saying it's because he's a better defender?

No, that's not valid.

#169 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:30 PM

Drew is not an exception.


And BPro's graphs are not proven fact.

#170 jokin

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:31 PM

When you figure out how to let MLB allow us to have one guy field and another guy hit for the same position the whole game - let me know. Otherwise, defense and offense matter. Florimon is a vastly superior defender and a vastly inferior hitter.

There are valid reasons to not want to give up defense in the name of offense.


The problem is, there are also valid reasons- and more urgent reasons- to get more offense on a team that is coming off of a year where they scored the same amount of runs as in 1968 (The Year of the Pitcher), and to this point anyway, have actually downgraded the offense from 2013.

#171 TheLeviathan

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:32 PM

And BPro's graphs are not proven fact.


Well, it's a fact insofar is that is how the trends looked in that study. Does it necessarily hold for every player? Absolutely not. Drew may well survive as what he is (a roughly average/ok defender) for longer than others.

He also might go from "ok" to "blech" and still be on the payroll for 10 million. This would be following typical aging tendencies rather than defying them.

#172 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:33 PM

I'm not overrating Florimon's defense. It's much better than Drew's.


That is opinion, not fact.

#173 TheLeviathan

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:36 PM

That is opinion, not fact.


The numbers indicate it's a strongly supported opinion. The opposing view isn't well supported.

In fact, the only support I've seen for it so far is conjecture about how well he positions himself, how his "experience" helps him (veteran savvy anyone?), and how a stat that needs multiple seasons of data has a one-year data set in his favor.

Edited by TheLeviathan, 25 January 2014 - 03:41 PM.


#174 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:42 PM

In fact, the only support I've seen for it so far is conjecture...


The only support other than UZR, you mean, right?

#175 jokin

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:43 PM

[quote name='TheLeviathan']Even UZR fans would tell you one year's worth of UZR is not a valid use of the stat.

I'm not overrating Florimon's defense. It's much better than Drew's. You are welcome to the opinion signing Drew would be smart. Saying it's because he's a better defender?

No, that's not valid.[/QUOTE]

I never said Drew is a better defender than Florimon, I did say that the differences that you emphasize between them are perhaps not the vast gulf that you seem to believe is the case, it's what I'm arguing is what's not valid in your case for Florimon.

[quote name='TheLeviathan']The numbers indicate it's a strongly supported opinion. The opposing view isn't well supported.

In fact, the only support I've seen for it so far is conjecture about how well he positions himself, how his "experience" helps him (veteran savvy anyone?), and how a stat that needs multiple seasons of data has a one-year data set in his favor.[/QUOTE]

[quote name='TheLeviathan'] Drew may well survive as what he is (a roughly average/ok defender) for longer than others.
.[/QUOTE]





How does 4 years worth of UZR data value Drew? Even though he had one bad defensive year during this time- his comeback year from ankle surgery in 2012, he still ranks #10 defensively among all SS with over 3700 innings played from 2010-2013. These numbers are strongly supported, not opinion or conjecture.

http://www.fangraphs...lter=&players=0

Edited by jokin, 25 January 2014 - 03:48 PM.


#176 TheLeviathan

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:45 PM

The only support other than UZR, you mean, right?


I don't mean this to offend - you've been vocal about not understanding/appreciating defensive metrics. UZR is not an effective tool for comparison based on one year's data. It is incredibly unreliable to the point of worthless. As evidenced by jokin rightly giving more context in the post after yours.

So no, one year of UZR is not valid support.

#177 InfraRen

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:47 PM

I had hopes that since Garza/Brewers wasn't official yet that we were trying to swoop in, but I know that's highly unlikely.
Till I Collapse

#178 TheLeviathan

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:48 PM

How does 4 years worth of UZR data value Drew? Even though he had one bad defensive year during this time- his comeback year from ankle surgery in 2012, he still ranks #10 defensively among all SS with over 3700 innings played from 2010-2013.


10th out of 17. I would call that an "ok" defender, exactly as I labeled him. Florimon, at least last year, played at a much higher than "ok" level.

The question is, does Drew as he ages, sink even further than "ok"? And, since trends indicate a strong likelihood he will, is that the kind of player you want to commit to? Maybe the immediate offensive boost would be sufficient for some. It's reasonable for others to conclude it's not.

#179 JP3700

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:50 PM

.6 Dwar is a "good defender"? I'd call that an "ok" defender.

In fact, that has stayed relatively consistent his entire career. It appears you are basing "good defender" on error totals. Which I completely disagree with.


No, I just don't look at a singular metric. I look at the three most used and accurate metrics to get the best measure of how good the player's defense is.

Error totals have nothing to do with it, they're already factored in to the metrics I look at.

#180 jokin

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Posted 25 January 2014 - 03:56 PM

Somehow I don't think anyone is advocating that. Yet. But we're really going out of our way to make Drew flawless these days.


C'mon Levi. Is there anyone on here that has said, in any way, shape, manner or form, that Drew is somehow flawless?

The main points in favor of signing him are:
the sorely-need bat,
a position of need that doesn't block a prospect,
and the fact that overpaying him if he turns out to be a bust in out-year #1 or #2 won't hurt the franchise's long-term goals of acquiring more talent in other sorely-needed areas.