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Big Shock (Sarcasm): Tanaka to Yankees

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133 replies to this topic

#121 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 02:10 PM

Check his splits. It didn't help his power - but it sure as hell helped everything else. To the tune or roughly .200 OPS points.


Could be an aberration. Look at his spray chart... It doesn't look to me like Fenway did him any favors.

http://pitchfx.texas.../batter/452220/

#122 tobi0040

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 02:33 PM

Drew also has a history of injuries and at least one team that was happy to be rid of him. He's also about to enter the downside of his career trend.

The more I've thought about 4/48, a draft pick, and his profile - the less I think of it as a no-brainer and the more I can see arguments against bringing him in. He's just not good enough and reliable enough to warrant bringing in.

If he wants a one or two year deal? Alright, then I'm in on this being only payroll, but at his current asking price his profile has lots of red flags.


We don't know what his asking price is, but I would bet 3/30 or a two year deal is where he ends up. Matt Garza only got a four year deal at $13M a year. So I don't see Drew getting close to that.

#123 biggentleben

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 02:55 PM

Nobody can argue we have much of anything in the pipeline or that Drew is not better than Florimon. This is primarily a financial decision.


Or that Florimon brings value to the table other than at the plate. Florimon had the second-most defensive runs saved at shortstop last season behind Andrelton Simmons. He may not be killing it offensively, but he does bring some excellent defense to the table.
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#124 tobi0040

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 03:39 PM

Or that Florimon brings value to the table other than at the plate. Florimon had the second-most defensive runs saved at shortstop last season behind Andrelton Simmons. He may not be killing it offensively, but he does bring some excellent defense to the table.


I wonder what his runs created number is offensively compared to the league?

.221 average, .281 OBP, .611 OPS, 44 RBI

That is Butera-ble.

#125 biggentleben

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 03:53 PM

I wonder what his runs created number is offensively compared to the league?

.221 average, .281 OBP, .611 OPS, 44 RBI

That is Butera-ble.


Interestingly, he was a top 20 shortstop last year, judging by MLB shortstops with more than 400 PA as a shortstop.
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#126 JP3700

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 04:12 PM

Interestingly, he was a top 20 shortstop last year, judging by MLB shortstops with more than 400 PA as a shortstop.


He was actually 21st in wRC+ out of 24 shortstops. Players who hit that poorly, don't often get 400 ABs.

The only other three shortstops below him were (Alcides) Escobar, Hechavarria and Kozma.

Escobar was just coming off of a year where he was close to being a league average hitter, Hechavarria was a rookie on a team that had no other options and Kozma has since been replaced after the Cardinals realized his offense wouldn't cut it, no matter how good his defense is.

#127 biggentleben

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 04:42 PM

He was actually 21st in wRC+ out of 24 shortstops. Players who hit that poorly, don't often get 400 ABs.

The only other three shortstops below him were (Alcides) Escobar, Hechavarria and Kozma.

Escobar was just coming off of a year where he was close to being a league average hitter, Hechavarria was a rookie on a team that had no other options and Kozma has since been replaced after the Cardinals realized his offense wouldn't cut it, no matter how good his defense is.


D'oh, my apologies, the number I was quoting was his fWAR in comparison to other SS, which included both offense and defense into it. I didn't identify that in my post. In bWAR, he was 16th in the league.
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#128 johnnydakota

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 04:52 PM

Or that Florimon brings value to the table other than at the plate. Florimon had the second-most defensive runs saved at shortstop last season behind Andrelton Simmons. He may not be killing it offensively, but he does bring some excellent defense to the table.


No Justin and an honest score keeper , and his error totals might triple

#129 biggentleben

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 04:58 PM

No Justin and an honest score keeper , and his error totals might triple


DRS has little to do with error totals.
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#130 CRArko

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 05:09 PM

Didn't there used to be a thread about Tanaka somewhere?

I wonder what the consensus will be if his numbers in Yankee Stadium resemble Phil Hughes.

Edited by crarko, 23 January 2014 - 05:40 PM.


#131 twinsnorth49

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 06:20 PM

No Justin and an honest score keeper , and his error totals might triple


Really? Show me how that math works.

#132 Willihammer

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 09:08 AM

I wonder what the consensus will be if his numbers in Yankee Stadium resemble Phil Hughes.


I doubt they will. That splitter will be an equalizer against lefties, just like Kuroda's.

#133 jay

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:07 AM

The only other three shortstops below him were (Alcides) Escobar, Hechavarria and Kozma.

Escobar was just coming off of a year where he was close to being a league average hitter, Hechavarria was a rookie on a team that had no other options and Kozma has since been replaced after the Cardinals realized his offense wouldn't cut it, no matter how good his defense is.


As you noted, all are fellow 'defense-first' SS. Assuming Florimon gets the job this year, I think we can clearly see that he has to improve with the bat this year or he'll go the way of Kozma. Even big-money Starlin Castro is being eyed for replacement despite his previous success after putting up offensive numbers just slightly better than Florimon last year.

Those calling for Drew *now* aren't off base in seeing the need for an improvement.

#134 Willihammer

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Posted 27 January 2014 - 10:47 AM

THT article on why teams agree to opt-out clauses.
http://www.hardballt...-like-opt-outs/

These opt outs acknowledge that the player is being underpaid despite the massive payroll commitment. By offering non-monetary pay, the clubs get to keep their payroll commitments lower. In the cases of the Dodgers and Yankees, that means fewer dollars being taxed. It's still a risky tactic, any player can go from star to broken in a single play and that's especially true of pitchers.

We can view Tanaka's contract another way. The Yankees think Tanaka is worth closer to $40 million dollars per season over four years ($155 million divided by four).* They're probably very unwilling to set that precedent, as are all other teams, which is why we've seen so many very long contracts. The opt out guarantees Tanaka that money. If he opts out and the Yankees don't re-sign him, then the club actually saves money.

*That's just a first order estimate. Luxury taxes, other taxes, the time value of money, and a whole slew of other factors affect the actual total. The point is, the Yankees think he's worth a lot more than $22 million per season.