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The BA Twins top ten prospect list is out.

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#21 Zephrin

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 09:29 PM

I would take our 11-15 against any team's:
Rosario-Gonsalves-Pinto-Kepler-Jorge


Which, coupled with the 1-2 punch of Buxton/Sano at the top, is why most people that aren't Houston homers think the Twins have the best farm in baseball right now. :)

#22 jokin

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 10:22 PM

I wish they would sign Johan Santana just to have JO Berrios hang with him for 3 months or so. Physically, they are almost identical, if Berrios were to learn and master Santana's change-up technique, I think it would further justify his lofty ranking from BA.

#23 North Dakota Twins Fan

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 12:26 AM

Alex Meyer above Kohl Stewart is interesting to me. Maybe because Meyer is much closer to being major ready? Stewart is only 19 years old I think.
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#24 shs_59

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 04:15 AM

Pinto not ranking inside the top 10 , has got to be my biggest suprise.

but i'd really like to know BA's top 20. My guess:

1. Bux
2. Sanow
3. Meyer
4. Stewart
5. Berrios (!)
6. Rosario
7. Thorpe (!)
8. May (?♪♪♥ ♀§Φ☺§♀☻!)
9. Santana (suprise)
10. Polanco
----
? - Kepler
? - Harrison
? - Pinto
? - Eades
? - A.B. Walker
--
some combo of Sulbaran, Gilmartin, Melotakis , Turner and either Jorge or Goodrum.

(as many of you know my list is quite a bit different)

But BA's list >>>> than mlb.com Jonathan Mayo's list with no Thorpe or Pinto or Walker inside the TOP 20 !?!?!?!? [crazy eyes]

Twins Prospects? 1 S. Gonsalves  2. N. Gordon  3. Tyler Jay

4. A. Kirilloff  5. Romero, Fernando  6. Mejia, Alberto  7. K. Stewart

8.J.T. Chargois  9. Wells, Lac. 10. D. Palka  11. Wade, LaM. 12. Nic Burdi


#25 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 07:22 AM

Pinto surprises me. I think Berrios is a bit too high too... Guess they really really like him.

and yes, Santana has no business being on this list.... Perhaps I'm missing something about him, but I don't get the love. He's looking like he'll be a slightly better version of Florimon. That's not a bad prospect, but hardly a top 10 one in a deep system.

#26 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 07:23 AM

Alex Meyer above Kohl Stewart is interesting to me. Maybe because Meyer is much closer to being major ready? Stewart is only 19 years old I think.


I don't see how Stewart can be ranked above Meyer at this point. Meyer just finished his age 23 season at AA striking out almost 11 batters per 9 innings. Stewart has all of 20 professional innings under his belt.

If Meyer doesn't graduate to the Majors for whatever reason, it wouldn't surprise me if those slots are flipped going into next offseason but right now, Stewart's talent doesn't outweigh his lack of experience.

#27 Thrylos

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 07:52 AM

Pinto not ranking inside the top 10 , has got to be my biggest suprise.

But BA's list >>>> than mlb.com Jonathan Mayo's list with no Thorpe or Pinto or Walker inside the TOP 20 !?!?!?!? [crazy eyes]


In a lot of lists Pinto (and Herrmann and Hicks and Arcia) has graduated and he is not regarded a prospect any more because of those 83 MLB PAs and because he will likely is the Twins starting C. IMO, if you played in the majors, you are done as a prospect.

I do like the MLB.com list better and not willing to jump on the Thorpe (or Sulbaran or Jorge) bandwagons quite yet. Maybe after this season. Walker needs to get on base more. A college kid with a .310 and .319 OBP in the last 2 seasons is not a top 10 prospect. Add 115 K in 508 ABs to that low OBP and you might be getting the picture. If he increases his walk rate and gets his OBP closer to .350, then he might be on the radar. At this point he is not much better prospect than someone like DJ Hicks (who is better with the bat, but not with his glove)
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#28 gunnarthor

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 08:59 AM

For the record - I see Walker improving again - He is my BREAKOUT player of the year again for 2014. For those who disagree - Name another player who had 25+ HRs and struck out with a K rate less than 20% (maybe a handful). For his production (27 HRs & 109 RBIs) he does not strike out too much IMO. I stand to say that his K rate is rather rare for that production. I just know one thing - HE WINS :) - "The intangible we need in MN" - Can't wait to see where he ranks in extended ranking edition.


Actually, Walker's k-rate was about 21%. I think this will be a big year for him but the Twins have been pretty cautious with him - college guy still hasn't reached high A. His lack of plate discipline probably prevents him from making the majors but, as Jason Parks noted, if he gets it together, he's a first division type player. (And it's not really his strike outs that are the problem - although he k'd way too much for an advanced bat in A ball - but it's his lack of walks that is killing him). Really nice lottery ticket to have, solid 3rd round pick but he's still a long shot.

#29 gunnarthor

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 09:00 AM

Mike Berardino handles the Twins for BA now and, as a former BA staffer, probably got as much or more input from other sources as the rest of the guys putting lists together. We are well aware that Mike will turn every stone over. Mike will host the BA Twins chat tomorrow afternoon.

Kepler will be #11 in the top 30.


Is the chat available to everyone or just BA subscribers?

#30 halfchest

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 09:16 AM

In regards to Santana. I've thrown him under the bus in other threads (the Stephen Drew one specifically). This peaked my interest. He's been fairly young for each level and he wouldn't be the first guy we've seen take some major strides in his later seasons. He hasn't been a flop but he may well be a useful guy. If he is a true defensive whiz, maybe he's a top of the league defensive guy with an ok hit tool. His OBP has been about .330 the past two years compared to a career .318. Maybe as he matures he gets a little better eye and improves his stealing rate as well. I still don't see him as a top ten guy but I guess there must be a decent argument for it. Career minor league OPS is about 40 points higher than Florimon and he played the levels at a younger age for what that's worth.

I think we've all said if Florimon could just hit a little better he could suddenly become a valuable player. Maybe Santana is that guy. I'm a bit pessimistic on him but who knows.

#31 TRex

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 09:31 AM

Today is better than Christmas for me! Even more so since I found out I could get the premium content after signing in (I only had an account because I had purchased previous material from BA). If you have an account, try signing in!

There has been a lot of guessing what #'s 11-20 will look like, but I found this new feature (top 15 players under 25), which listed the following players after Jorge Polanco, suggestive:
[TABLE="class: rightAlignTable, align: right"]















[/TABLE]

13. Max Kepler, of/1b (21) Low Class A
14. Fernando Romero, rhp (19) Rookie
15. Stephen Gonsalves, lhp (19) Rookie[TABLE="class: rightAlignTable, align: right"]












[/TABLE]


Fernando Romero is certainly a name we have heard before, but I don't think many have the fireballing Dominican right-hander as high as #12!

For a quick primer, this is what Thrylos had to say about him:

34. Fernando Romero, RHSP, DOB: 12/24/1994. 6'0", 215 lbs

Fernando Romero was signed to an Amateur Free Agent contract by the Twins on October of 2011 with a $260,000 bonus out of the Dominican Republic. After spending the 2012 season in the Dominican Summer League, he made the jump to the Gulf Coast League in 2013. He pitched in 12 games (6 GS) for 45 innings to a 1.60 ERA and had 47 strikeouts and only 13 bases on balls. His WHIP was 1.00 and K% a very impressive 26, while his K/BB was 3.62.

Romero is a big guy and an extreme ground ball pitcher. That compared to his striking out pretty much every fourth batter he faced, is very promising. His heavy fastball is in the low 90s but he is still very young and can pick velocity. He has a slider and changeup that are works in progress. A former Twins' comparable would be Carlos Silva at his best. Romero does have mid rotation potential, depending on development of his secondary pitches and staying healthy. He will likely begin 2014, his age 19 season, in Elizabethton where he will alternate between the rotation and pen until extended.


#32 cmathewson

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 09:42 AM

No, Kepler isn't a huge surprise, just noting that he's not on the list.

Berrios is definitely a top ten prospect, I was merely surprised that they had him at #5, right behind Stewart.

Then again, with the Rosario suspension, maybe that isn't such a surprise.


I'm guessing Kepler and Polanco are in the top 13, if they had one. The only other name missing is Pinto, whom BP had five or six.
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#33 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 09:49 AM

In regards to Santana. I've thrown him under the bus in other threads (the Stephen Drew one specifically). This peaked my interest. He's been fairly young for each level and he wouldn't be the first guy we've seen take some major strides in his later seasons. He hasn't been a flop but he may well be a useful guy. If he is a true defensive whiz, maybe he's a top of the league defensive guy with an ok hit tool. His OBP has been about .330 the past two years compared to a career .318. Maybe as he matures he gets a little better eye and improves his stealing rate as well. I still don't see him as a top ten guy but I guess there must be a decent argument for it. Career minor league OPS is about 40 points higher than Florimon and he played the levels at a younger age for what that's worth.


I've also been pretty down on Santana but if his glove plays as advertised, he could easily supplant Florimon. I've probably been a bit unfair to the kid, as he's only going into his age 23 season in 2014.

I think we've all said if Florimon could just hit a little better he could suddenly become a valuable player. Maybe Santana is that guy. I'm a bit pessimistic on him but who knows.


Honestly, it wouldn't take much. Santana's 2013 in AA is virtually identical to Florimon's 2012 in AA... Except that Santana did it as a 22 year old, not a 25 year old.

I don't expect much from Santana but I expect nothing from Florimon. He's a bad MLB starter. Florimon should be AAAA injury filler in the minors, not a MLB shortstop. Santana probably won't end up being more than a futility bat but still, that's better than Pedro Florimon. His bat simply doesn't carry in today's game. I don't care how well he fields (and he's still too sloppy to be considered an all-glove, no bat starter).

As for Florimon improving, I created a handy meme image to explain my thoughts on the subject.

653tf.jpg

#34 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 09:50 AM

I'm guessing Kepler and Polanco are in the top 13, if they had one. The only other name missing is Pinto, whom BP had five or six.


I assumed Pinto was missing because of his MLB experience. There's no way he drops off the list after his September call-up unless they have a 50 PA cutoff for prospects.

#35 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 11:21 AM

Is the chat available to everyone or just BA subscribers?


Subscribers only.

#36 Linus

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 11:49 AM

Wasn't Santana voted "Best Prospect" in the Eastern League last year by the managers? I get the relatively unimpressive performance from a sabermetrics POV but he must have something that catches the eye of experienced baseball people.

#37 Thrylos

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 12:24 PM

Wasn't Santana voted "Best Prospect" in the Eastern League last year by the managers?


No

Caleb Joseph (Baysox) was the 2013 Eastern League Player of the Year
Allan Dykstra (B-Mets) was the 2013 Eastern League MVP
Alex Dickerson (Curve) was the 2013 Eastern League Rookie of the Year

Santana (and Pinto) made the Eastern League All Star team, maybe that's what you are thinking of...

I get the relatively unimpressive performance from a sabermetrics POV but he must have something that catches the eye of experienced baseball people.


It is not only "sabermetrics". It is even old school metrics: .719 OPS, 2 HR, 66 R (for a lead off guy), 45 RBI, 24 BB, 97 K, 30% CS rate and 32 errors do not a superstar make (I did not even talk about "sabermetrics" like WAR, wRC+, wOBA etc). At any league, at any age. And you have to be a superstar to crack the Twins' top 10. Definitely better players were left out. Plus his glove is really inconsistent. He is rangy but makes silly mistakes on easy plays. And he fails the eye test. I watched him play 3 times last season and was not exactly impressed. He has great speed. He can make ground ball contact and try to run them for hits, with occasional line drives. That's pretty much his game.
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#38 Linus

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 12:34 PM

No

Caleb Joseph (Baysox) was the 2013 Eastern League Player of the Year
Allan Dykstra (B-Mets) was the 2013 Eastern League MVP
Alex Dickerson (Curve) was the 2013 Eastern League Rookie of the Year

Santana (and Pinto) made the Eastern League All Star team, maybe that's what you are thinking of...



It is not only "sabermetrics". It is even old school metrics: .719 OPS, 2 HR, 66 R (for a lead off guy), 45 RBI, 24 BB, 97 K, 30% CS rate and 32 errors do not a superstar make (I did not even talk about "sabermetrics" like WAR, wRC+, wOBA etc). At any league, at any age. And you have to be a superstar to crack the Twins' top 10. Definitely better players were left out. Plus his glove is really inconsistent. He is rangy but makes silly mistakes on easy plays. And he fails the eye test. I watched him play 3 times last season and was not exactly impressed. He has great speed. He can make ground ball contact and try to run them for hits, with occasional line drives. That's pretty much his game.


Yep, now that I think of it, best prospect would be quite an impressive award. Sounds like this coming year will be very important for him. In other words step it up or step aside.

#39 maxisagod

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 01:37 PM

One of the things BA has always been high on is age and ceiling. Pinto is a little older and Mlb regular ceiling is not as flashly as potential Allstar. Santana has always been young for his league and the power potential, avg, and range says his ceiling might be higher, though Pinto is a lot more likely to reach his.

#40 ericchri

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 01:57 PM

Wasn't Santana voted "Best Prospect" in the Eastern League last year by the managers? I get the relatively unimpressive performance from a sabermetrics POV but he must have something that catches the eye of experienced baseball people.


This seems pretty familiar to me, too. Was it maybe best defensive player or something to that effect?