The only point I'm saying is that it's easy for the negatives to say that a prospect isn't going to be this or isn't going to be that because the reality is that most don't become what we hope that they could be. Most don't become Hall of Famers. Only a few turn into frequent All Stars. I think and hope and believe that Miguel Sano can become a frequent All Star. But until he does, we don't know that he will...
Likewise, it's easy to say Kepler is likely to become only a 4th outfielder. Well, as it relates to any minor leaguer, if he does become even a solid 4th OF, it's better than most will wind up. I believe he has the ability to be more than that.
Sano is no ordinary prospect. For the vast majority of prospects, I can see your point. But some prospects are as close to sure things as you can get, barring carreer-ending injuries. Sano is one of those. Put it this way, would you have said the same thing about Mauer12 years ago, siply because the law of averages says he had a chance to be a bust?