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Article: Finding Optimism in the Offense

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#31 TheLeviathan


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Posted 09 January 2014 - 11:25 AM

Sano, yes. But I think it's pretty safe to predict at least a 100 OPS+ from Arcia at this point.

Except that doesn't represent a marked improvement, which is what we're talking about here - improvement on last year. Will he, maybe, provide an extra 200 ABs that improve on Parmelee? Sure, but we're talking about a handful of runs better at that point.

#32 jokin


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Posted 09 January 2014 - 10:29 PM

That's bit strong. What you suggest would increase the odds of an 100-run improvement, but it neither guarantees it, nor does standing pat preclude it. If you take the two- year average of this team with what was essentially the same offense, 50 extra runs is close to regression to the mean. Add Arcia and possibly Sano and you get closer. A Hicks breakout or unexpected Kubel resurgence and you're there.

It's not all that likely, but it is possible.

I'd like for the Twins to do more to make it even more likely...and make the "possible" more like "probable" with proven major leaguers sprinkled into the lineup and combine that with some creative thinking employing some strategic platoons.

My original proposal assumed regression to the mean of players like Willingham and Plouffe to get closer to your 50+ run upgrade. The problem is they essentially have downgraded the offense from 2013 at C/1B/DH combined, so there is obviously work to do here for Terry Ryan. Counting on players like Arcia and Dozier to up their numbers from 2013 is too much based on hope in my mind. If there were payroll or prospect-blocking issues, I'd demur.... but there aren't...and they should