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Article: The Case for Stephen Drew

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#61 Mike Sixel

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 07:15 PM

How is saving millions a good idea, if those millions are just pocketed? Why do people care if they pay Drew, if the alternative is pocketing the money?

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#62 jokin

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 07:23 PM

Florimon hit .180/.229/.230 against lefties last year.

That's supposed to be his strong side.


To be fair, Florimon is much better against lefties throughout his minor league career....758 OPS in MiLB vs LHP.

Edited by jokin, 07 January 2014 - 07:42 PM.


#63 jokin

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 07:24 PM

How is saving millions a good idea, if those millions are just pocketed? Why do people care if they pay Drew, if the alternative is pocketing the money?


I don't see how a one or up to three-year $10M deal hurts the master plan for the long term. The days of the need for hoarding every nickel are over under the current business model, for both the franchise and the league.

Edited by jokin, 07 January 2014 - 07:41 PM.


#64 jokin

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 07:29 PM

I doubt it. Both teams had him in a contract year. The DBacks dumped him at the deadline for a bag of balls, but the Red Sox offered him a 14m contract.

The DBacks handling of Drew reminds me of the Twins handling of Hardy. IIRC there was some chatter from Gardy or the FO questioning Hardy's toughness before they traded him (also for a bag of balls).


It was both, depending on which day of the week it was, I'm sure they wish they could have that one back.....hopefully they've learned from the mistake.

Edited by jokin, 07 January 2014 - 07:41 PM.


#65 TheLeviathan

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 07:42 PM

Who should pursue him (besides the Twins)?


Well, one that jumps out is the Mets. Also the Giants, Toronto, Houston, Miami, Pittsburgh all could benefit from him.

#66 jokin

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 07:51 PM

Well, one that jumps out is the Mets. Also the Giants, Toronto, Houston, Miami, Pittsburgh all could benefit from him.


I think the Boras factor has to come in play here, particularly for the Giants. If we recall, Boras stuck the Giants with the Zito contract.

Houston and Miami? Not ready for FA primetime at this point. Are both Pitt and Toronto tapped out for expanding their payrolls. The Mets sound like they're playing possum in hopes of driving the price down a bit. One thing we know for sure, the Twins aren't anywhere close to being tapped out.

Edited by jokin, 07 January 2014 - 11:06 PM.


#67 Marta Shearing

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 07:54 PM

How is saving millions a good idea, if those millions are just pocketed? Why do people care if they pay Drew, if the alternative is pocketing the money?

I have never understood why so many people are concerned about saving Pohlad's money. As if 3/$30m to drew would hamstring the franchise. For goodness sake, even with their signings, payroll has barely gone up, and with this new massive mlb revenue deal, the money is flowing in. They SHOULD be overpaying right now BECAUSE THEY CAN!

#68 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 07:54 PM

[quote name='Reider']No, that's not what I said. I said that when doing a cost benefit analysis between Florimon and Drew that the law of diminishing returns comes into play big time because you have to spend 20-26X plus give up a second round draft pick to get a negative return on defense and less than 2x return on offense.[/QUOTE]

Drew, if healthy, is worth anywhere between 1-2 wins more than Florimon. At about $6m per win, that's a decent return on free agency.

[quote name='Reider']As far as a potential Hardy trade goes, nowhere did I suggest giving up X player or X prospect in a trade. I merely think the Twins would be wise to at least give the Orioles a call and see what options are available instead of simply giving Drew what he wants without flipping over every other stone first.[/QUOTE]

You didn't mention a prospect in return for Hardy but I listed one... Berrios. While the pricetag for one year of Hardy might not be quite that high, it's probably where Baltimore would open negotiations. In any case, what you'd give up for Hardy is more likely to succeed than a second round draft pick. It takes talent to get talent. The draft, past the first ten picks, is basically a crapshoot.

[quote name='Reider']One thing nobody seems to consider very much is that Florimon has only played one full season in the MLB and that he may improve both defensively and offensively. This would add even more weight on the cost-benefit scale.[/QUOTE]

Florimon hasn't hit anywhere since he was a teenager in rookie ball. He is 27 years old. Expecting him to improve at this point is a bit like wishing upon a star.

[quote name='Reider']As far as platooning Drew with Florimon. I'm really not against the idea to be honest. I have nothing against Drew and I think the two of them would do a fine job in 2014. I'm merely looking at it from a cost-benefit / business perspective. If the Twins are willing to spend the money, then that's great. But I have a feeling that Terry Ryan is thinking more like me and less like you on this issue.[/QUOTE]

Florimon and Drew have the same weak/strong sides at the plate so a platoon makes no sense. Escobar, on the other hand...

[quote name='Reider']I said before that the Twins would be better off spending their $ in other area's where they would get more bang for their buck and so far they have done that (starting pitching), which doesn't surprise me at all. Hopefully they continue doing that and only sign Drew if all of their other options have run out (e.g. Garza is signed, teams are asking for too much in trade for X player) and they still have $ left to spend.[/QUOTE]

Given the Twins current roster, what other position can you find a better bang for buck than shortstop?

C - Pinto - sink or swim, not going to add value here
1B - Mauer
2B - Dozier, backed up by Rosario in 2015
SS - Florimon
3B - Plouffe, backed up by Sano
LF - Willingham
CF - Scrub Player X, backed up by Hicks and later, Buxton
RF - Arcia
DH - Parmelee/Arcia/Willingham/Plouffe

Looking at that lineup, there isn't much room for improvement that doesn't involve either trading a player to make room or blocking a young player coming through the system.

#69 Thrylos

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 07:59 PM

How is saving millions a good idea, if those millions are just pocketed? Why do people care if they pay Drew, if the alternative is pocketing the money?


Devil's advocate: What if the alternative is signing Cuban, Japanese and Korean Free agents (that are not subject to the international FA cap?)
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#70 jokin

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:02 PM

You didn't mention a prospect in return for Hardy but I listed one... Berrios. While the pricetag for one year of Hardy might not be quite that high, it's probably where Baltimore would open negotiations. In any case, what you'd give up for Hardy is more likely to succeed than a second round draft pick. It takes talent to get talent. The draft, past the first ten picks, is basically a crapshoot.



Florimon hasn't hit anywhere since he was a teenager in rookie ball. He is 27 years old. Expecting him to improve at this point is a bit like wishing upon a star.



Florimon and Drew have the same weak/strong sides at the plate so a platoon makes no sense. Escobar, on the other hand...


The Orioles are shopping for major league talent, which the Twins could fill, making it a win-win deal.

I'm all for Escobar in the platoon in place of Florimon, plus he could also fill the UTIL role- and he's only just-turned 25 (last Sunday), with a fighting chance to improve at least marginally with the bat, not 27 like Florimon is.

#71 jokin

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:04 PM

Devil's advocate: What if the alternative is signing Cuban, Japanese and Korean Free agents (that are not subject to the international FA cap?)


As long as they don't use the as-yet still-unnamed scout who gave the go-ahead on Nishi....then.... sure thing.

#72 Paul Pleiss

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:23 PM

It makes me happy that I'm not the only who who keeps mistakenly thinking/saying/typing J.D. Drew instead of Stephen Drew. I've made no secret that I think signing Drew would be a good more for the organization, and an immediate substantial upgrade (offensively). 3 years and 30 million, I'd make that deal if the Twins legitimately think they can contend within the division this season. If they are still just throwing guys against the wall and waiting for the talent to move through the system then move along, the only trouble is that unless Danny Santana has a great season in 2014 he's not going to be ready until 2015, and probably 2016 and there don't appear to be any great SS options coming available next season either.

I wont be surprised if the Twins pass on Drew, but I sure would be tickled pink if they could ink him to a deal.

#73 DocBauer

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:25 PM

No doubt SS is the most prime position on the field, and in the lineup, for the Twins to improve on, considering who is either currently at other positions, or should be very soon. And I have no doubt that Drew would indeed improve the over all lineup, though I feel we would slip slightly defensively.

Make no mistake, while SP has been our greatest weakness and priority, better now but still in need of improvement, (Garza!), I would be quite happy if we could also afford to bring on Drew for $8-10M for a handful of years.

But if I play devil's advocate myself, I have to ask how much real improvement you're getting by the move? Adding Drew's "better offense" at the SS position is not the same as a slugger/rbi producer, top of the leader board batting average, or bona-fide dangerous leadoff hitter.

And I am not one to suggest the Pohlads squirrel away potential payroll dollars for the sake of a mystery nest egg somewhere. But just because you have money to spend, doesn't always mean you should spend it.

Let's say we make the move for Garza and then also follow through with Drew, pretty much tapping all payroll for this season, and offering some limitation in flexibility for next season. It could make a trade move or FA signing more difficult. Also, are we positive there isn't a better SS available next year when the team may be theoretically closer to contention? Or could we trade some assets in the system to make a move for a younger, talented SS that we could control for longer as the team grows in to contention together?

Again, nothing against Drew, I'm just not sure it's a prudent move at this juncture than improves us enough to make the deal.

#74 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:41 PM

The Orioles are shopping for major league talent, which the Twins could fill, making it a win-win deal.

I'm all for Escobar in the platoon in place of Florimon, plus he could also fill the UTIL role- and he's only just-turned 25 (last Sunday), with a fighting chance to improve at least marginally with the bat, not 27 like Florimon is.


Given what Baltimore probably wants for one season of Hardy, I'd rather have Drew. If the Twins can't retain Hardy after 2014, they will have given up some kind of prospect for no good reason, as they're likely to miss the playoffs anyway. At least with Drew, you're only sacrificing a draft pick and you get him for at least two seasons, maybe three (but hopefully two).

#75 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:43 PM

The DBacks handling of Drew reminds me of the Twins handling of Hardy. IIRC there was some chatter from Gardy or the FO questioning Hardy's toughness before they traded him (also for a bag of balls).


IMO this above is maybe the strongest case for a Drew signing, that he comes to Minnesota and enjoys the cocoon of our clubhouse so much (like Pelfrey and Kubel apparently have) that he falls in love with baseball again and wants to be on the field every day. JJ Hardy, he of the nagging injury, went to Baltimore and hasn't missed a game in almost three years. Can Drew be the same story? He seems to be trending downward and like someone said, the slope could be steep. But JP3700 in the OP does make a persuasive case with the Drew/Florimon wRC+ differential, too.

I agree with the previous two posters that this is a tough call. It's gotta be a tough call for Ryan. We need offense and there it is. But Drew is 30 and 30 is not the new 20 for modern athletes. Again, a red flag. SS is not a traditional platoon position. Might be nice to keep a Florimon/Sano left infield side, too, for when Sano comes up NLT August I'd hope. My gut says this is less about the numbers and more about the feel. I think Ryan passes and maintains the SS/2B combo that worked pretty well last year. But you guys have moved me from the No camp to the Either way camp and it wouldn't bother me as much now if Ryan does sign him.

#76 AHSaves

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:44 PM

With the payroll we have available, I think I'd be a little let down if we didn't get Garza or Drew. Drew would be a little cheaper and (finally) an upgrade to the offense, but I see Garza living up to his contract a little better. It seems the Twins are looking at around 3 years for both.

Who would you rather have? Also, imagine we got both. Is that an upgrade for the organization's future?

#77 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:46 PM

With the payroll we have available, I think I'd be a little let down if we didn't get Garza or Drew. Drew would be a little cheaper and (finally) an upgrade to the offense, but I see Garza living up to his contract a little better. It seems the Twins are looking at around 3 years for both.

Who would you rather have? Also, imagine we got both. Is that an upgrade for the organization's future?


Drew isn't going to be a little cheaper than Garza, he's going to come in under half the price.

#78 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 09:08 PM

Given what Baltimore probably wants for one season of Hardy, I'd rather have Drew. If the Twins can't retain Hardy after 2014, they will have given up some kind of prospect for no good reason, as they're likely to miss the playoffs anyway. At least with Drew, you're only sacrificing a draft pick and you get him for at least two seasons, maybe three (but hopefully two).


I am on the fence on this one but it should be pointed out that while you make Berrios sound like a much steeper price than the pick we would give up, Berrios was drafted with a pick pretty close to this pick. TaiJuan Walker was drafted with the 43rd pick. And, while the odds are not great for picks in the low 40s, the odds of Drew contributing to a contender are zero for the 1st two years. IF he is still health and playing at a high level he could contribute in 2016 but those odds are not high either. I guess it comes down to if you want to play the odds to favor building a contender later or a 500 team now?

#79 amjgt

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 09:21 PM

Drew isn't going to be a little cheaper than Garza, he's going to come in under half the price.


AAV projection is what 12M vs 17M?

#80 JP3700

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 09:47 PM

[quote name='TheLeviathan']Well, you're also speculating about his production, or lack there-of, being injury related.
[/QUOTE]

I'm curious why you continued to assert that Worley and Diamond's poor performance in 2013 was injury related and then don't give Drew the same consideration. Especially when there is statistical evidence that supports it.

[QUOTE]It could also be that this guy has a terrible makeup and that's why he's failed to live up to expectations and stay on the field and he exasperated the organization that was banking on him for years.[/QUOTE]

Prior to that ankle injury, he had been on the DL one time. Here was his games played in the prior four full seasons: 150, 152, 135, 151. He was on pace for another 150+ games before he got hurt in 2011. So what more should he have done for his organization?

I've read nothing but good from managers and players in regards to Drew. I'd rather believe those comments than the one negative comment that I've read (other than fans) from an owner that also called out his 24 year old star player before shipping him out of town.

[QUOTE]I'm on board signing him because our shortstop situation is terrible and we should be willing to take chances. But if this guy is the picture of a bargain at shortstop, there are a lot of teams that should be after that. And since so many front offices are ignoring him with virtually nothing else left on the hitter's market - it does speak to issues beyond the numbers you are crunching, no?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]Well, one that jumps out is the Mets. Also the Giants, Toronto, Houston, Miami, Pittsburgh all could benefit from him.[/QUOTE]

As you mentioned, our shortstop situation is terrible. Other than the Mets, the other teams mentioned are even further out of contention(Marlins, Astros) or have a viable shortstop(Giants, Blue Jays, Pirates).

The competition is really down to the Mets and the Red Sox.