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Article: The Case for Stephen Drew

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#21 TheLeviathan

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 11:13 AM

What, faking injuries?


I'm not sure why we saw a comparison to Cuddyer or a list of his injuries. Those are irrelevant to what you are responding to. Here is a quote from Drew's past owner in Arizona:

[FONT=Open Sans]You know, I'm going to be real direct about Stephen. I think Stephen should have been out there playing before now. And, frankly, I for one am disappointed.[/FONT][FONT=Open Sans]I'm going to be real candid and say I think Stephen and his representatives are more focused on where Stephen is going to be a year from now than going out and supporting the team that's paying his salary.[/FONT]
[FONT=Open Sans]All you can do is hope that the player is treating the situation with integrity, and, frankly, we have our concerns.[/FONT]


I was simply suggesting that if we are looking for a mystery roadblock to team interest, that a second team saying the same thing behind closed doors might explain a lot.

#22 John Bonnes

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 11:35 AM

First, thanks to Thrylos and others for mentioning the platoon thing. It's a great point. I'd forgotten just how extreme he was. Of course, that means I really like him 2/3 of the time.

Based on some research a while back, I think this injury thing is being overblown. He had a gruesome injury, took a while to come back, and had a concussion. The concerns from the DBacks are a concern. I'll also say that a lot of the games he missed with Boston were more due to that platoon split than injuries.

So it comes down to this: what do you want to commit to a young, above average defensive shortstop who can mash vs RHs and is really bad vs LHs?

I'll ask a second question: if he didn't cost a 2nd round pick, what would his market value be? Would 4/40 be out of the question then? If so, that's also a pretty tradable asses, and someone that you might get something better than a #2 pick for.

I think Drew could be the guy this summer that we're all wondering why nobody else chased, similar to Willingham two years ago.

#23 Brad Swanson

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 11:50 AM

First, thanks to Thrylos and others for mentioning the platoon thing. It's a great point. I'd forgotten just how extreme he was. Of course, that means I really like him 2/3 of the time.

Based on some research a while back, I think this injury thing is being overblown. He had a gruesome injury, took a while to come back, and had a concussion. The concerns from the DBacks are a concern. I'll also say that a lot of the games he missed with Boston were more due to that platoon split than injuries.

So it comes down to this: what do you want to commit to a young, above average defensive shortstop who can mash vs RHs and is really bad vs LHs?

I'll ask a second question: if he didn't cost a 2nd round pick, what would his market value be? Would 4/40 be out of the question then? If so, that's also a pretty tradable asses, and someone that you might get something better than a #2 pick for.

I think Drew could be the guy this summer that we're all wondering why nobody else chased, similar to Willingham two years ago.


I think the "young" label might be relative at best. I've been doing some research on and off about older players, and part of it focuses on the fact that I think we are still applying age and youth within the context of the "steroid era." This doesn't fully apply here, but it did make me look at Drew's youth closer.

In this case, I looked at all shortstops (at least 120 games played at the position) who achieved a WAR of 2.0 or greater. In the past 25 years, only 60 player seasons have occurred. That's about 2.5 per year. If you look at Drew's 3.1 WAR from last season, that total lowers to 40 total seasons, or about 1.5 per year.

Basically, shortstops either age rapidly or move to another position. I'm not certain Drew solves the shortstop issue for the next three years. If that is the case, then I'm not sure he's worth 3 and 30 and the second round pick.

Here's the link to the table with all the player seasons I found. If you remove repeats, there are just 28 unique players. In the past ten years, only 14 different players reach these figures:

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/8crOD

Edited by Brad Swanson, 07 January 2014 - 12:08 PM.

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#24 Willihammer

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 12:00 PM

I'm not sure why we saw a comparison to Cuddyer or a list of his injuries. Those are irrelevant to what you are responding to. Here is a quote from Drew's past owner in Arizona:



I was simply suggesting that if we are looking for a mystery roadblock to team interest, that a second team saying the same thing behind closed doors might explain a lot.


I doubt it. Both teams had him in a contract year. The DBacks dumped him at the deadline for a bag of balls, but the Red Sox offered him a 14m contract.

The DBacks handling of Drew reminds me of the Twins handling of Hardy. IIRC there was some chatter from Gardy or the FO questioning Hardy's toughness before they traded him (also for a bag of balls).

#25 TheLeviathan

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 12:11 PM

I doubt it. Both teams had him in a contract year. The DBacks dumped him at the deadline for a bag of balls, but the Red Sox offered him a 14m contract.

The DBacks handling of Drew reminds me of the Twins handling of Hardy. IIRC there was some chatter from Gardy or the FO questioning Hardy's toughness before they traded him (also for a bag of balls).


Offering him a qualifying offer is a calculated move, not necessarily reflective of what I'm saying. It's certainly possible questions of his toughness and integrity aren't following him, but the comments by the Arizona owner were uncharacteristically frontal.

#26 rico7961

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 12:23 PM

Drew exhibits all the qualities that the Twins didn't like in JJ Hardy. Why on earth would they sign him when they basically gave Hardy away because of their perception of what he could do for the team.

#27 Thrylos

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 12:24 PM

Offering him a qualifying offer is a calculated move, not necessarily reflective of what I'm saying. It's certainly possible questions of his toughness and integrity aren't following him, but the comments by the Arizona owner were uncharacteristically frontal.


Indeed. So were Terry Ryan's and Ron Gardenhire's about Scott Baker not playing in that Spring Training before he got the TJ surgery. Perception and fact are different beasts.
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#28 amjgt

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 12:29 PM

Drew mashed RHP in the rate of .284/.377/.498 last season, but a. do you want to pay $3/35M for a platoon player (even though he will take the majority of PAs) and b. (even more importantly) will the manager platoon him, because he should?


So, you're paying $12M + $0.5M for a kick-ass Shortstop.

The perfect case for platoons. Pay big money one guy who's going to be really good 75% of the time and pay league minimum to a guy who's going to be just fine the remaining 25%.

.850 OPS 75% of the time + .650 OPS 25% of the time = .800 OPS

Pay for the 75% and manage the 25%

#29 amjgt

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 12:31 PM

tradable asses.


You have my attention John Bonnes

#30 amjgt

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 12:46 PM

I think the draft pick compensation should be tied more to the team's market size then losing a free agent. The RedSox are a huge market and can sign away folks without fear. The compensation was meant to protect teams like the Twins (formerly) and pirates from being a farm system to other teams...


Based on us not being in the competitive balance lottery, I'm not sure it would do us much good.

I'm not totally sure how a team just below average in market size and having lost 90+ games for three straight years somehow doesn't qualify for competitive balance.... but that's for another thread

#31 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 01:29 PM

What, faking injuries?

Drew's injuries, ordered by days on DL.

[TABLE="width: 500"]

[TABLE="width: 534"]

Date On
Date Off
Transaction
Days
Games
Side
Body Part
Injury


[TD="align: right"]3/26/2012
[TD="align: right"]6/27/2012[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]93[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]73[/TD]
Right
Ankle
Recovery From Surgery


[TD="align: right"]7/21/2011[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10/8/2011[/TD]
60-DL
[TD="align: right"]79[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]64[/TD]
Right
Ankle
Surgery


[TD="align: right"]6/28/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7/20/2013[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]22[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17[/TD]
Right
Thigh
Strain


[TD="align: right"]3/8/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3/27/2013[/TD]
Camp
[TD="align: right"]19[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
-
Head
Concussion


[TD="align: right"]4/24/2009[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5/12/2009[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]18[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18[/TD]
Left
Thigh
Strain


[TD="align: right"]3/27/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4/10/2013[/TD]
7-DL
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
-
Head
Recovery From Concussion


[TD="align: right"]6/15/2005[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6/29/2005[/TD]
Minors
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
Right
Thigh
Strain


[TD="align: right"]3/22/2011[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3/31/2011[/TD]
Camp
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]


Strain


[TD="align: right"]3/21/2009[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3/29/2009[/TD]
Camp
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]

Abdomen
Strain


[TD="align: right"]3/31/2011[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4/4/2011[/TD]
DTD
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]

Abdomen
Recovery From Strain


[TD="align: right"]4/5/2011[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4/8/2011[/TD]
DTD
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]

Abdomen
Soreness


[TD="align: right"]3/17/2011[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3/20/2011[/TD]
Camp
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]

Abdomen
Strain


[TD="align: right"]5/18/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5/20/2013[/TD]
DTD
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
-
Low Back
Soreness

[/TABLE]
[/TD]










[/TABLE]

The two biggies are the ankle injury and ensuing recovery. Closely followed by a concussion. Not sure how you fake either of those.

The right thigh strain could be worrisome I guess, maybe it could aggravate the ankle if Drew has to compensate for it. I'm reaching here.

By comparison, here's Michael Cuddyer's injury history.

[TABLE="width: 500"]

[TABLE="width: 598"]

Date On
Date Off
Transaction
Days
Games
Side
Body Part
Injury
Severity


[TD="align: right"]6/28/2008
[TD="align: right"]9/13/2008[/TD]
60-DL
[TD="align: right"]77[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]66[/TD]
Left
Fingers
Strain
Index Finger


[TD="align: right"]8/19/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10/4/2012[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]46[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44[/TD]
Right
Abdomen
Strain
Oblique


[TD="align: right"]4/4/2008[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4/25/2008[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18[/TD]
Right
Fingers
Dislocation
Index Finger


[TD="align: right"]5/9/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5/24/2013[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
-
Neck
Cartilage Injury
Herniated Disc


[TD="align: right"]8/1/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8/16/2012[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
Right
Abdomen
Strain
Oblique


[TD="align: right"]7/19/2007[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8/3/2007[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
Right
Thumb
Sprain
Thumb


[TD="align: right"]6/30/2005[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7/17/2005[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]17[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
Left
Hand
Contusion



[TD="align: right"]8/11/2011[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8/22/2011[/TD]
DTD
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
-
Neck
Cartilage Injury
Felt Pop Swinging Bat Disc Injury


[TD="align: right"]9/3/2005[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9/11/2005[/TD]
DTD
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]

Trunk
Strain
Rib Cage

[/TABLE]
[/TD]










[/TABLE]


Quite an uncomfortable injury comparison you've given us here, as I don't know anyone who wouldn't go to bat for Cuddyer's toughness and yet few people seem to be going to bat for Drew's toughness (save some TD posters). Yet there it is.

Also to nitpick for a second: 66 full days of finger strain in 2008 is probably a little misleading, and some of that time was a broken foot (which he rushed back from for the stretch run).

#32 thetank

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 01:48 PM

Stephen Drew's brother was J.D. Drew. J.D. always seemed to be missing games and would have a very good year stats wise when he was going to be a FA.

I know they are not the same, but, they had the same agent.

#33 Vervehound

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 01:58 PM

I think the draft pick compensation should be tied more to the team's market size then losing a free agent. The RedSox are a huge market and can sign away folks without fear. The compensation was meant to protect teams like the Twins (formerly) and pirates from being a farm system to other teams...


free agenct compensatory picks are compensation for those teams losing valuable assets and don't have anything to do with market size. if the yankees are losing lots of top players due to the structure of the system, the system is designed to give them something back. the current method does a much better job of assigning compensation to players that are actually coveted, as opposed to the previous mess with type A and B.

also, competitive balance picks do what you suggest compensatory picks should do.

#34 twinsfan34

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 02:05 PM

If you are worried about losing a second rounder, just look at all the second round picks by the Twins the last 25 years.......If you think they shouldn't sign him "because they aren't close", then why sign Pelfrey, why even try to get better at all......If you think they should not sign him because it will tie up resources for next year, they lose KC and Willingham off the payroll, they are still WELL below the 50% threshold, and they just got $25MM more EVERY year in national tv money.

There really isn't a good reason not to sign him. OTOH, if you aren't punting the season again, there are plenty of good reasons to sign him.


A guy who's never died before getting his head chopped off could say the exact same thing. I never died before today.

Not a good enough reason to justify not keeping the 2nd RD pick.

#35 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 02:11 PM

When people say Drew is a "platoon player", they're failing to acknowledge that he's the valuable side of the platoon.

Platoons are not equal. The guy who mashes RHP (somewhere around 70% of a player's PAs) is much more valuable than the guy who mashes LHP (30% of PAs).

Which is why guys like Danny Valencia are of marginal value at best while Stephen Drew is looking to command a $10m+ annual salary.

#36 twinsfan34

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 02:25 PM

I think the "young" label might be relative at best. I've been doing some research on and off about older players, and part of it focuses on the fact that I think we are still applying age and youth within the context of the "steroid era." This doesn't fully apply here, but it did make me look at Drew's youth closer.

In this case, I looked at all shortstops (at least 120 games played at the position) who achieved a WAR of 2.0 or greater. In the past 25 years, only 60 player seasons have occurred. That's about 2.5 per year. If you look at Drew's 3.1 WAR from last season, that total lowers to 40 total seasons, or about 1.5 per year.

Basically, shortstops either age rapidly or move to another position. I'm not certain Drew solves the shortstop issue for the next three years. If that is the case, then I'm not sure he's worth 3 and 30 and the second round pick.

Here's the link to the table with all the player seasons I found. If you remove repeats, there are just 28 unique players. In the past ten years, only 14 different players reach these figures:

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/8crOD


I'm heavily in this camp. I view SS's as RB's in the NFL. There's a few Adrian Peterson's, but after age 30, even the Adrian Peterson's have maybe 1-3 years.

I think Florimon/Escobar are fine for 2014. 2 WAR for $500K...not a horrible investment.

#37 oldguy10

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 03:00 PM

I say pass on Drew as by the time the other young players are ready for a division/pennant run all three of Polanco, Santana and/or Goodrum will be more than adequate at shortstop. And this does not even take into account that the Twins may draft a terrific young shortstop also who may be ready for MLB by 2016 or so.

#38 twinsnorth49

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 03:01 PM

Drew represents an upgrade from what this team currently has, this team needs upgrades and can more than afford it, they should be looking to upgrade everywhere possible, money should have nothing to do with it.

Additionally, if Drew ends up staying healthy and playing well in Minnesota, he could return a better prospect down the road in trade than what a second round draft pick today might ever return.

Edited by twinsnorth49, 07 January 2014 - 03:06 PM.


#39 TheLeviathan

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 03:04 PM

Drew represents an upgrade from what this team currently has, this team needs upgrades and can more than afford it, they should be looking to upgrade everywhere possible, money should have nothing to do with it.

Additionally, if Drew ends up staying healthy and playing well in Minnesota, he could return and better prospect down the road in trade than what a second round draft pick today might ever return.



I guess, since I share a similar thought, what is everyone want to see in a contract? I'm ok with bringing in Drew - but I don't think I want more than a 2 year deal. Hell, I'd prefer one year.

#40 Brad Swanson

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 03:08 PM

If I'm picking an ideal contract, I'd like to see 2 years and $22 million, with an $11 million club-option for 2016. I'm ok with going a little higher on annual value because it could entice him into a shorter deal. Doubtful though.

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