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Article: The Case for Stephen Drew

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#1 JP3700

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 06:52 AM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...or-Stephen-Drew

#2 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 06:59 AM

I think the draft pick compensation should be tied more to the team's market size then losing a free agent. The RedSox are a huge market and can sign away folks without fear. The compensation was meant to protect teams like the Twins (formerly) and pirates from being a farm system to other teams...

That said, I still miss JJ Hardy... What a colossal blunder. Wonder if the Orioles would send him back to us for the ghost of Hoey.

In conclusion, I don't have a huge problem going for him. I think the price needs to drop a bit or get an option or something... I'm not super excited by him either, but as this article shows, there won't be any better options any time soon... other than possibly Hardy next year.

#3 John Bonnes

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 07:01 AM

The more I think about this, the more I like this idea. I really wonder if baseball might not be undervaluing Drew. The crickets surrounding him make me wonder if there are some things we don't know about with him, because I can't believe he hasn't got more interest. He is, seemingly, the whole package - offense, defense, youth - at a very hard position to fill. It makes the 2nd round pick scare seem a bit silly.

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 07:05 AM

Concur with John. Drew seems like such a no brainier, it makes you wonder what you're not seeing.

Unless there IS something, the Twins should have signed him already.

#5 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 07:46 AM

I vacillate a bit on Drew. I'm not sold on him coming out of Fenway (I have an irrational fear of anyone who hits in that park) but his spray chart indicates that he didn't make much use of the Monster so that's probably a non-issue.

On the other hand, Pedro Florimon is not a Major League hitter. The Twins have zero above average shortstop prospects in the high minors. If there is one position they can fill via free agency and not have to worry about getting in the way of any youngsters, it's short.

#6 mike wants wins

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:17 AM

If you are worried about losing a second rounder, just look at all the second round picks by the Twins the last 25 years.......If you think they shouldn't sign him "because they aren't close", then why sign Pelfrey, why even try to get better at all......If you think they should not sign him because it will tie up resources for next year, they lose KC and Willingham off the payroll, they are still WELL below the 50% threshold, and they just got $25MM more EVERY year in national tv money.

There really isn't a good reason not to sign him. OTOH, if you aren't punting the season again, there are plenty of good reasons to sign him.

#7 Jim Crikket

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:52 AM

Since I'm already on record as favoring a Drew signing, you're preaching to the choir in my case. The draft pick compensation just isn't a big deal to me and it actually probably keeps the competition and price levels down to the point where he should be attractive to the Twins.

It's such a no-brainer to me that I can't help but feel like the fact that the Twins haven't been linked to him almost makes it more believable that they're still in play for another high-priced FA option like Garza. Knowing Boras isn't at all concerned about waiting for the market to play out, once the remaining top SP free agents are off the board, the Twins would potentially be turning their attention to position player upgrades and if Drew is still out there, maybe they get aggressive on him.

Edited by Jim Crikket, 07 January 2014 - 08:57 AM.

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#8 TheLeviathan

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:55 AM

Concur with John. Drew seems like such a no brainier, it makes you wonder what you're not seeing.

Unless there IS something, the Twins should have signed him already.


One potential explanation is that the Red Sox are privately acknowledging similar issues with Drew that Arizona had. Namely, being soft and faking injuries. So maybe now there are two organizations lending support to the idea the guy has a bd makeup?

#9 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 09:08 AM

If you are worried about losing a second rounder, just look at all the second round picks by the Twins the last 25 years.......If you think they shouldn't sign him "because they aren't close", then why sign Pelfrey, why even try to get better at all......If you think they should not sign him because it will tie up resources for next year, they lose KC and Willingham off the payroll, they are still WELL below the 50% threshold, and they just got $25MM more EVERY year in national tv money.

There really isn't a good reason not to sign him. OTOH, if you aren't punting the season again, there are plenty of good reasons to sign him.


There is a good reason not sign him, we just don't know it. I read somewhere Boras may have to market him as a 3B or 2B to get the interest up. WAG's on the Twins possible reasons? We are going to take Trea Turner if he is available. We have our sights on a specific player in the 2nd round, that we are higher on than others. A starting pitcher from Puerto Rico?

Drew reminds me of a player falling down the draft board, that no one can figure out why. I'm perfectly content to let the Twins handle this one.

Edit: I didn't see Levi's bad make up suggestion. That sounds feasible.

Edited by howieramone, 07 January 2014 - 09:19 AM.


#10 Brad Swanson

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 09:15 AM

59.5%

That's the percentage of games Drew has played over the last three seasons. I am quite certain that is the number that is scaring teams away.

#11 Thrylos

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 09:15 AM

The Twins have zero above average shortstop prospects in the high minors..


Not true. I'd say in the high minors (and on the 40-man roster) Danny Santana is an "above average" prospect and in mid minors Jorge Polanco is a top prospect. Lots of people are high on Goodrum (pun not intended) as well...

That said, a 3 year contract to Drew will "block" only Florimon, Escobar and Santana. I like to see what Escobar can do. SS is his best defensive position, he is just 24 and I think that his bat will take off this season if given a chance.

Not sure that Drew is the best investment here. Back to the wRC+ numbers: his career wRC+ is 96. His last 3 seasons his wRC+ was 92, 80 and 109 (average 93.6). In other words, for his career he has been 4% below the average player and 6.4% below the average the last 3 seasons combined. A 3 year contract will buy his age 31, 32 and 33 seasons, that should theoretically be worse than his age 28, 29 and 30 season when we was 6.4% worse than the average hitter.

One thing that might be encouraging is his splits. He is horrible against LHP. Last season in 167 PA vs LHP he hit .196/.246/.340 with a 10/55 BB/K ratio. If the Twins were to find a platoon player against LHPs, they might be in business. Florimon is worse against LHP, but Escobar is better. Drew mashed RHP in the rate of .284/.377/.498 last season, but a. do you want to pay $3/35M for a platoon player (even though he will take the majority of PAs) and b. (even more importantly) will the manager platoon him, because he should?
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#12 goulik

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 09:25 AM

If you are worried about losing a second rounder, just look at all the second round picks by the Twins the last 25 years.......If you think they shouldn't sign him "because they aren't close", then why sign Pelfrey, why even try to get better at all......If you think they should not sign him because it will tie up resources for next year, they lose KC and Willingham off the payroll, they are still WELL below the 50% threshold, and they just got $25MM more EVERY year in national tv money.

There really isn't a good reason not to sign him. OTOH, if you aren't punting the season again, there are plenty of good reasons to sign him.


Most teams would be giving up a first round pick which makes it easier for the worst teams like the Twins to go after him because we lose less AND what are the odds on a second rounder?

Either Drew or that Cuban SS (what's his name? Where's his thread?) needs to be acquired. There are NO shortstops close to pounding on the door in our system as there are at most all other positions. That is why I had Drew in my off season blue print... We need to address SS this year or next!

(Honesty in conversation, I have also said a winning team can have a poor offensive SS and compared Florimons potential to Gagne but that's only potential IMHO)

#13 nicksaviking

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 09:28 AM

One potential explanation is that the Red Sox are privately acknowledging similar issues with Drew that Arizona had. Namely, being soft and faking injuries. So maybe now there are two organizations lending support to the idea the guy has a bd makeup?


This is what puts me in the minority, if he's faking it's bad, but if he's not faking, it doesn't make it much better, he's still missing a boatload of games. I'm not a big Drew supporter, I'd take a shot on a one year deal, but considering he hasn't played 130 games since 2010 I think it's unlikely he does it regularly over the next three years. I'm also pretty concerned about his career high SO% at his age 30 season which was preceeded by his 2nd highest SO% season the year before. The limited number of games he plays combined with the increasing strikeout numbers have the look of an accelerated decline.

These kind of guys seem to end up platooning very quickly. Speaking of platoons, check out his .196/.246/.340 slash against lefties last year. I'm not excited about giving a guy multiple years at $10 million per to share time with Pedro Florimon.

Edited by nicksaviking, 07 January 2014 - 09:31 AM.


#14 kirbyelway

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 09:35 AM

I don't understand the fascination with Drew, the guy can't stay healthy. He has bad wheels and the grind of the shortstop position just makes him a bad signing waiting to happen. Defensively and as your 9 hole hitter Florimon or Escobar are fine.

#15 Brad Swanson

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 09:52 AM

I don't dislike Drew, and if the Twins sign him, I'll be cool with it. That said, if he does sign, I think he has the potential to become one of the more unpopular players in recent history. He misses a lot of time, he often looks disinterested and he is very inconsistent. He's just as likely to hit .220/.310/.350 next year as he is to hit .255/.333/.440. Those are his last two seasons and while he was injured for some of the poor season, that kind of proves my point too.

I'm with Thrylos, I'd prefer Escobar next season, although I'm not sure that's a real option. The Twins seem to be pretty fine with Florimon.

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#16 Willihammer

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 10:09 AM

What, faking injuries?

Drew's injuries, ordered by days on DL.

[TABLE="width: 500"]

[TABLE="width: 534"]

Date On
Date Off
Transaction
Days
Games
Side
Body Part
Injury


[TD="align: right"]3/26/2012
[TD="align: right"]6/27/2012[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]93[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]73[/TD]
Right
Ankle
Recovery From Surgery


[TD="align: right"]7/21/2011[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10/8/2011[/TD]
60-DL
[TD="align: right"]79[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]64[/TD]
Right
Ankle
Surgery


[TD="align: right"]6/28/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7/20/2013[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]22[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17[/TD]
Right
Thigh
Strain


[TD="align: right"]3/8/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3/27/2013[/TD]
Camp
[TD="align: right"]19[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
-
Head
Concussion


[TD="align: right"]4/24/2009[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5/12/2009[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]18[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18[/TD]
Left
Thigh
Strain


[TD="align: right"]3/27/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4/10/2013[/TD]
7-DL
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
-
Head
Recovery From Concussion


[TD="align: right"]6/15/2005[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6/29/2005[/TD]
Minors
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
Right
Thigh
Strain


[TD="align: right"]3/22/2011[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3/31/2011[/TD]
Camp
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]


Strain


[TD="align: right"]3/21/2009[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3/29/2009[/TD]
Camp
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]

Abdomen
Strain


[TD="align: right"]3/31/2011[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4/4/2011[/TD]
DTD
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]

Abdomen
Recovery From Strain


[TD="align: right"]4/5/2011[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4/8/2011[/TD]
DTD
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]

Abdomen
Soreness


[TD="align: right"]3/17/2011[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3/20/2011[/TD]
Camp
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]

Abdomen
Strain


[TD="align: right"]5/18/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5/20/2013[/TD]
DTD
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
-
Low Back
Soreness

[/TABLE]
[/TD]










[/TABLE]

The two biggies are the ankle injury and ensuing recovery. Closely followed by a concussion. Not sure how you fake either of those.

The right thigh strain could be worrisome I guess, maybe it could aggravate the ankle if Drew has to compensate for it. I'm reaching here.

By comparison, here's Michael Cuddyer's injury history.

[TABLE="width: 500"]

[TABLE="width: 598"]

Date On
Date Off
Transaction
Days
Games
Side
Body Part
Injury
Severity


[TD="align: right"]6/28/2008
[TD="align: right"]9/13/2008[/TD]
60-DL
[TD="align: right"]77[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]66[/TD]
Left
Fingers
Strain
Index Finger


[TD="align: right"]8/19/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10/4/2012[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]46[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44[/TD]
Right
Abdomen
Strain
Oblique


[TD="align: right"]4/4/2008[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4/25/2008[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18[/TD]
Right
Fingers
Dislocation
Index Finger


[TD="align: right"]5/9/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5/24/2013[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
-
Neck
Cartilage Injury
Herniated Disc


[TD="align: right"]8/1/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8/16/2012[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
Right
Abdomen
Strain
Oblique


[TD="align: right"]7/19/2007[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8/3/2007[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
Right
Thumb
Sprain
Thumb


[TD="align: right"]6/30/2005[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7/17/2005[/TD]
15-DL
[TD="align: right"]17[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
Left
Hand
Contusion



[TD="align: right"]8/11/2011[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8/22/2011[/TD]
DTD
[TD="align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
-
Neck
Cartilage Injury
Felt Pop Swinging Bat Disc Injury


[TD="align: right"]9/3/2005[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9/11/2005[/TD]
DTD
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]

Trunk
Strain
Rib Cage

[/TABLE]
[/TD]










[/TABLE]

#17 cmathewson

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 10:18 AM

Not true. I'd say in the high minors (and on the 40-man roster) Danny Santana is an "above average" prospect and in mid minors Jorge Polanco is a top prospect. Lots of people are high on Goodrum (pun not intended) as well...

That said, a 3 year contract to Drew will "block" only Florimon, Escobar and Santana. I like to see what Escobar can do. SS is his best defensive position, he is just 24 and I think that his bat will take off this season if given a chance.

Not sure that Drew is the best investment here. Back to the wRC+ numbers: his career wRC+ is 96. His last 3 seasons his wRC+ was 92, 80 and 109 (average 93.6). In other words, for his career he has been 4% below the average player and 6.4% below the average the last 3 seasons combined. A 3 year contract will buy his age 31, 32 and 33 seasons, that should theoretically be worse than his age 28, 29 and 30 season when we was 6.4% worse than the average hitter.

One thing that might be encouraging is his splits. He is horrible against LHP. Last season in 167 PA vs LHP he hit .196/.246/.340 with a 10/55 BB/K ratio. If the Twins were to find a platoon player against LHPs, they might be in business. Florimon is worse against LHP, but Escobar is better. Drew mashed RHP in the rate of .284/.377/.498 last season, but a. do you want to pay $3/35M for a platoon player (even though he will take the majority of PAs) and b. (even more importantly) will the manager platoon him, because he should?


Molitor said Santana was two years away at the end of 2013. Polanco is more of a second base prospect than a shortstop. Goodrum might become something, but he is still quite raw and three years seems his reasonable landing time. Drew would not block any of these guys.

My chief concern with Drew is health. Perhaps they hang onto Escobar and Florimon just in case, or hope that Bartlett can be a reasonable stop gap in case of injury. But it all hinges on teh cost. You just hate having salary tied up in injured players.
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#18 stringer bell

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 10:39 AM

I'm not big into projections, but mlbtraderumors did an article on Drew a while back and they cited projections that were not at all kind. I just do not believe a multi-year contract for this guy at more than $10M per year will come close to paying off. The draft choice is another pebble in the landslide as far as I'm concerned.

#19 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 10:58 AM

Not true. I'd say in the high minors (and on the 40-man roster) Danny Santana is an "above average" prospect and in mid minors Jorge Polanco is a top prospect. Lots of people are high on Goodrum (pun not intended) as well...


Eh, I think the fuss over Santana is due to the lack of decent SS prospects in the Twins organization, not any inherent talent in Santana himself.

The guy hasn't OPSed over .739 in five years. He doesn't have good plate discipline. He doesn't hit for a high average. He doesn't have particularly good power. He's a prospect on the level of Brian Dozier pre-2011, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

In other words, he's the type of guy that pleasantly surprises you if he breaks out. He's not the type of player you think about when building your MLB roster.

#20 Brandon

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 11:05 AM

If Sano continues to have arm problems Drew could be a good backup option at 3rd too should the Twins get tired of Plouffe not hitting should Plouffe continue to hit .700 OPS or less.