Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

The Store

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

From MinnCentric


Photo

Article: Jonathan Mayo on Minnesota Twins Prospects - Pt 1

  • Please log in to reply
22 replies to this topic

#1 Christopher Fee

Christopher Fee

    Member

  • Members
  • 69 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 09:07 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...n-Mayo-Part-One

#2 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 7,368 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 10:21 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...n-Mayo-Part-One


I’m from Pittsburgh, so I actually like Alex Presley a little bit. I think he’s a very good fourth outfielder, but I don’t think you want him playing centerfield every day.


I hope that Ryan has a viable Plan C for CF this year. Jonathan Mayo seems to value Presley's potential contribution to the 2014 Twins more realistically than the GM apparently does. He's right, while AP is a nice 4th OFer, the Twins appear to be coming up short yet again in CF to open the season. Based on how the season ended for Hicks, you gotta think he's going to have to spend 1-3 months in Roc. to prove himself.

#3 PseudoSABR

PseudoSABR

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 1,976 posts

Posted 06 January 2014 - 11:29 PM

Jonathan Mayo seems to value Presley's potential contribution to the 2014 Twins more realistically than the GM apparently does.

I'm pretty sure TR and the FO realizes what they have in Presley, a stop gap.

#4 John Bonnes

John Bonnes

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 4,985 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 06:37 AM

It's nice to see a national analyst remind us that half a year of struggles doesn't sink Gibson or Hicks. In both cases, they've faced a double-whammy:
1. They didn't experience immediate success and
2. They suddenly look squeezed at their position.

I don't think #1 should surprise anyone too much. First of all, lots of guys struggle in their first half year. And in both cases, they faced significant challenges beyond that of players making their MLB debuts: Hicks skipped AAA while Gibson was working his way back from Tommy John and approaching (exceeding) an innings limit.

#2 is bad luck for them. I'm not worried about Presley limiting Hicks playing time in CF; Presley isn't going to ever have the firepower to hold off Hicks if he starts tearing up AAA. I'm more worried about Hicks finding his way into the rotation, just because this organization is now so worried about it's rotation that you can see them hanging onto guys for too long, especially if they're paying them mutli-year deals.

#5 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,712 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:22 AM

You clearly mean Gibson, and I agree.....KC or Pelfrey blocking Gibson, ugh.

As for Hicks, his struggles were historically bad. I believe Fangraphs looked and could find zero players that were that bad their first month that ever turned out good, but that might have been an offhand remark in a chat...... The bigger issue for me last year was that his defense looked a lot less impressive than we had been led to believe. That should not have been effected by being in MN at all.
Lighten up Francis....

#6 zenser

zenser

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 213 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:39 AM

If Sano is lighting up AA and there is a need at third? I think you could see him.


I was thinking he would start in AAA. Would anyone else be shocked if he started the season in AA?

#7 twinsin17

twinsin17

    Member

  • Members
  • 88 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:43 AM

The bigger issue for me last year was that his defense looked a lot less impressive than we had been led to believe. That should not have been effected by being in MN at all.


I agree he had a somewhat rough adjustment his first couple weeks last year but then he started taking better routes to balls and his D improved significantly. Hicks also showed off a cannon for an arm, which could be better than advertised. If Hicks can hit .250 with the plate discipline he displayed in the minors, combined with a little pop and some solid baserunning and SB totals he would be a perennial starting OF for us. The jury is still out if he can do that, however.

#8 amjgt

amjgt

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 545 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:47 AM

"CF – I could probably think of three."

"I could probably think of four" might have gotten a more interesting response.

#9 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 5,364 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:48 AM

#2 is bad luck for them. I'm not worried about Presley limiting Hicks playing time in CF; Presley isn't going to ever have the firepower to hold off Hicks if he starts tearing up AAA. I'm more worried about Hicks finding his way into the rotation, just because this organization is now so worried about it's rotation that you can see them hanging onto guys for too long, especially if they're paying them mutli-year deals.


Totally agree. I worry that Gibson is going to have a MUCH harder time getting back into the rotation than Hicks will into the lineup. If anything, it should be the other way around.

#10 Jim Crikket

Jim Crikket

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,134 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 09:21 AM

Guess I'm not that worried about Gibson being potentially blocked. People act like all a MLB team needs is 5 starting pitchers every year. How often do the Twins not need at least 8 or 9 to spend significant time in the rotation at some point?

Gibson will get his chances. If he does really well, he'll stay, regardless of what Correia, Pelfrey, et al, do. If Gibson doesn't pitch well enough to clearly put himself above those guys in the pecking order at some point this season, then that says a lot.

At some point, you have to stop talking about a guy's potential and start talking about his actual performance. Might not be there yet on Gibson, but I would think a year from now we'll be getting close to that point.
[COLOR=#0000cd]I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at[/COLOR][COLOR=#800000] Knuckleballsblog.com[/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd] while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for [/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd][COLOR=#800000]MetroSportsReport.com[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd].[/COLOR] [COLOR=#0000cd]
[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#b22222]~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~[/COLOR]

#11 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 7,809 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 09:28 AM

I was thinking he would start in AAA. Would anyone else be shocked if he started the season in AA?


I assume he will start back at AA.

#12 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 5,364 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 09:58 AM

At some point, you have to stop talking about a guy's potential and start talking about his actual performance. Might not be there yet on Gibson, but I would think a year from now we'll be getting close to that point.


Righ, but as Mayo points out he's also 26. So we need to see that actual performance in the big leagues, not AAA. Hence the blocking problem.

#13 Jim Crikket

Jim Crikket

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,134 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 10:49 AM

Righ, but as Mayo points out he's also 26. So we need to see that actual performance in the big leagues, not AAA. Hence the blocking problem.


I agree and, as I wrote, I see no reason why he wouldn't get big league starts this year to prove himself, with or without Correia and Pelfrey around. To think that, because the Twins have 4 veteran SPs now, only 1 other SP will get any opportunities the whole season is just not very reasonable. Will he get 30 starts at the MLB level? Probably not. But I would expect him to get enough to sink or swim.
[COLOR=#0000cd]I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at[/COLOR][COLOR=#800000] Knuckleballsblog.com[/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd] while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for [/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd][COLOR=#800000]MetroSportsReport.com[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd].[/COLOR] [COLOR=#0000cd]
[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#b22222]~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~[/COLOR]

#14 howieramone1406390264

howieramone1406390264

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 715 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 11:02 AM

I agree and, as I wrote, I see no reason why he wouldn't get big league starts this year to prove himself, with or without Correia and Pelfrey around. To think that, because the Twins have 4 veteran SPs now, only 1 other SP will get any opportunities the whole season is just not very reasonable. Will he get 30 starts at the MLB level? Probably not. But I would expect him to get enough to sink or swim.


I agree. I would be very surprised if it's not an organizational priority to position Gibson and Meyer to be penciled into the rotation come opening day 2015. They probably are not all that concerned about when it happens, as long as it does.

#15 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 5,364 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 11:18 AM

I agree and, as I wrote, I see no reason why he wouldn't get big league starts this year to prove himself, with or without Correia and Pelfrey around. To think that, because the Twins have 4 veteran SPs now, only 1 other SP will get any opportunities the whole season is just not very reasonable. Will he get 30 starts at the MLB level? Probably not. But I would expect him to get enough to sink or swim.


I hope so, my issue isn't that he reaches a certain number of starts, but that he gets an extended number of them. Getting 5 here and 5 there to a total of 15 isn't the same as getting 15 in a row IMO.

We've seen too much of that chunked opportunities lately for my liking.

#16 Jim Crikket

Jim Crikket

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,134 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 11:25 AM

Gibson isn't an Indy ball signing, a relatively cheap international signing or even a low draft pick. The Twins have invested a fair amount of money in him and I think he'll get opportunities. But even if it's "chunks" of 5 starts here and there, it's up to him to do something with those opportunities. That's a month of starts. If you stink the place up with a month of starts, it's not unreasonable to expect the organization to plug someone else in to your spot.
[COLOR=#0000cd]I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at[/COLOR][COLOR=#800000] Knuckleballsblog.com[/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd] while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for [/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd][COLOR=#800000]MetroSportsReport.com[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd].[/COLOR] [COLOR=#0000cd]
[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#b22222]~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~[/COLOR]

#17 abnormal_1

abnormal_1

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 9 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 11:37 AM

Just an observation regarding the Twins starting rotation.

Nolasco - Signed 4 years
Hughes - Signed 3 years
Pelfrey - Signed 2 years
Corriea - 1 year

This means there is a 5th slot open to be won this year. With Gibson on year two after TJ I expect him to be better (Gibson go out and get that please!) and if Alex Meyer is lighting it up early on look for one of Corriea/Pelfrey to be moved out of the way (1 year 5 million isn't much for a psuedo reliable #4 pitcher trade Corriea mid season and two slots are open.)

2015 rotation then is something like this (placed in alpha order not necessarily rotation sequence):

-Gibson
-Hughes
-Meyer
-Nolasco
-Pelfrey

#18 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 5,364 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 11:37 AM

Gibson isn't an Indy ball signing, a relatively cheap international signing or even a low draft pick. The Twins have invested a fair amount of money in him and I think he'll get opportunities. But even if it's "chunks" of 5 starts here and there, it's up to him to do something with those opportunities. That's a month of starts. If you stink the place up with a month of starts, it's not unreasonable to expect the organization to plug someone else in to your spot.


I disagree. When you bounce him back and forth constantly you aren't giving him the best opportunity. Usually what you do is you create more questions than you answered. (see: Parmelee)

As you said, they've invested a lot in him, they should also invest the most ideal opportunity into him as well. Not bounce him around during non-contending seasons and still have unanswered questions.

#19 howieramone1406390264

howieramone1406390264

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 715 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 02:18 PM

Comparing Gibson to Parmelee is comparing apples to oranges. If you're questioning the overall consistency of how Twins handle players that's the subject of a different thread IMO.

With Deduno coming back from shoulder surgery and unlikely being ready on time, there is no reason to believe Gibson won't will be given every opportunity to win to the 5th spot, as it should be.

Edited by howieramone, 07 January 2014 - 04:04 PM.


#20 Twins_Fan_For_Life

Twins_Fan_For_Life

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 2 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 03:57 PM

[quote name='Jim Crikket']Gibson will get his chances. If he does really well, he'll stay, regardless of what Correia, Pelfrey, et al, do. If Gibson doesn't pitch well enough to clearly put himself above those guys in the pecking order at some point this season, then that says a lot.


I agree. Gibson will be 26 all season, and needs to out-perform Correia, Pelfrey and the rest of the fray. If he can't break into a mediocre/bad rotation at age 26, he may never be a pitcher that can contribute to a winning team.

I expect him to come back healthy, another year removed from TJ. He will have his opportunities to win a spot in the rotation.

#21 Paul Pleiss

Paul Pleiss

    Y'arrrgh matey!

  • Members
  • 711 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:16 PM

Throwing in my response to the article here, joining the masses.

I'm not worried about Gibson being blocked. If he pitches well enough the Twins will find starts for him. I think it's likely (read as ALMOST ASSURED) that someone will get hurt and there will be a need for a guy like Gibson/Diamond/Worley to come in and make starts. Obviously with Diamond and Worley out of options, where they start the season will be a big question (especially if they get put on waivers and claimed).

As far as Hicks goes, I like what Mayo had to say. I still like Hicks, and at 24, there's no reason to give up yet. I know we are all counting on Byron Buxton to come and be the answer at CF for a long time, but Hicks could provide considerable value as a corner OF guy, bench bat/4OF, and ideally would be a great guy to have roaming CF until Buxton is ready to assume those duties. Of course, I was a huge proponent of Joe Benson, and we all know how that ended. Pour JB, just couldn't seem to put his immense potential and talent together at the higher levels, and that beautiful hair. (author sheds a tear and takes a moment of silence...)

There is a lot to be excited about as far as prospects go for this organization, and while there may rightly be some hesitation over both Gibson and Hicks, neither should fall by the wayside. Don't give up on them, at least not yet.

#22 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 5,364 posts

Posted 07 January 2014 - 08:48 PM

I'm not worried about Gibson being blocked. If he pitches well enough the Twins will find starts for him.


This isn't the issue. To be clear, I am sure he will get starts this year. What I hope is that they are a committed, invested amount of them whether he has highs or lows. Let him work through things, not rubber-band him back and forth. I just don't find that an effective way to develop a prospect nor to see what they are capable of.

#23 orangevening

orangevening

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 130 posts

Posted 08 January 2014 - 09:30 AM

You clearly mean Gibson, and I agree.....KC or Pelfrey blocking Gibson, ugh.

As for Hicks, his struggles were historically bad. I believe Fangraphs looked and could find zero players that were that bad their first month that ever turned out good, but that might have been an offhand remark in a chat...... The bigger issue for me last year was that his defense looked a lot less impressive than we had been led to believe. That should not have been effected by being in MN at all.


I'm not sure. Hicks did throw in the 90's in high school. So did Buxton for that matter...