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Article: Can Terry Ryan Truly Change His Stripes?

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#1 Jim Crikket

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 09:53 AM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...nge-His-Stripes
[COLOR=#0000cd]I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at[/COLOR][COLOR=#800000] Knuckleballsblog.com[/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd] while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for [/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd][COLOR=#800000]MetroSportsReport.com[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd].[/COLOR] [COLOR=#0000cd]
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[COLOR=#b22222]~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~[/COLOR]

#2 BigTrane

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 10:39 AM

Great post and analysis- especially the point about attracting free agents.
It's a given that the Twins and TR need to lay the money down often enough in this off season to convince the FA market that there's a serious turnaround in the works. Heck, we fans need to be convinced, hence this article. We have to work our way up the ladder in a thin market.
Those are the breaks for us right now.

Hopefully, a larger force (JP) is behind this change in TR- it would make sense, at any rate. If the org. is committed from the top down, and TR is taking orders, then that would be a sea change. A change most fans have been dreaming for... but have been burned enough to be wary/suspicious/unbelieving. Call it conditioning.

#3 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 11:42 AM

Fllorimon was an above average shortstop last season (.6WAA) and he likely can repeat what he did. Drew is only a minor upgrade and for that reason it isn't worthwhile to give up a draft pick and overpay him. I'd rather have an elite defensive SS than a mixed one. With ground ball pitchers in the rotation, I think it's a must. You also eliminate the Dozier/Rosario idea up the middle.

Morales, on the other hand, I can agree with a little bit. If he's available for a fair price, the Twins should probably pull the trigger. I like what he does at the plate a lot. He's been pretty good in the last two seasons since he broke his leg. However, if you use him exclusively as a DH, then you have to keep both Willingham and Arcia in the outfield.

#4 Tibs

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 01:32 PM

I like both of these ideas. Kendrys Morales has a career OPS+ of 120. Stephen Drew's is 98, which isn't great, but it's a heck of a lot better than Florimon's (67). I'm not completely sold on Drew for $10 million though.

#5 mike wants wins

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 02:04 PM

ground ball pitchers? Which staff is that?

TR has, effectively, cut payroll again this year. Let's see what he does now. And, a 2nd rounder? Really? Ugh. The odds of a second rounder contributing to a MLB roster are very low.....

#6 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 02:27 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...nge-His-Stripes


I'd like to see a stronger argument put forth for signing Drew at short. I see people saying he's available and statistically an offensive upgrade, but that's about it, and very little discussion of his red flags. For where the Twins are at this moment, I'd feel good about Florimon.

#7 h2oface

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 02:57 PM

And we had JJ Hardy. Stephen Drew would be a waste of future resources. But Florimon is not the answer either.

#8 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 03:31 PM

ground ball pitchers? Which staff is that?

TR has, effectively, cut payroll again this year. Let's see what he does now. And, a 2nd rounder? Really? Ugh. The odds of a second rounder contributing to a MLB roster are very low.....


Mike, I'm pretty sure you can't effectively cut payroll again this year, until the year at least starts. What happened to your fascinating study about WAR's where you conclusively proved our favorite team was just a few moves away from capturing the Central?

#9 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 03:42 PM

I'm not terribly excited about either one right now. I could get on board with Drew. I don't know if I buy Morales. I still think Parmelee and Plouffe deserve one more year to prove they belong. I still think both could, and one could earn that DH job for the next wave. A DH can be signed any time, so honestly I'd rather us roll the dice at the chance that the teasing both Parm and Plouffe have done represents some real sustainable MLB talent.

#10 alphanumeric

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 04:11 PM

Stephen Drew owns a career .264 average with unspectacular power numbers and hasn't played a full season since 2010. He will be 31 in March. I'm not a fan of signing him, but having Morales protecting Mauer would be a HUGE improvement (57 xbh's last year). I just don't know if it's worth the money Boras is gonna want.

#11 Jim Crikket

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 04:26 PM

Stephen Drew owns a career .264 average with unspectacular power numbers and hasn't played a full season since 2010. He will be 31 in March. I'm not a fan of signing him, but having Morales protecting Mauer would be a HUGE improvement (57 xbh's last year). I just don't know if it's worth the money Boras is gonna want.


A case can be made for or against Drew, Morales and any other free agent, based on whether you feel the particular player would or would not improve the Twins' line up.

However, given where the Twins payroll currently stands vs. the revenues they have coming in (including the additional national TV revenues from the league) there is absolutely no reason anyone should concern themselves with whether any player is "worth the money" they'd want. Nobody remaining on the FA market would command so much money that paying it would hamstring the Twins at any time in the near or distant future.
[COLOR=#0000cd]I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at[/COLOR][COLOR=#800000] Knuckleballsblog.com[/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd] while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for [/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd][COLOR=#800000]MetroSportsReport.com[/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#0000cd].[/COLOR] [COLOR=#0000cd]
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#12 minn55441

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 05:46 PM

Nice article JC and nice argument. I'm not buying it, but nice logical approach. Terry still has money to spend, but I think he puts it down on an outfielder.

Interesting couple of months to see if he spends some more money and if so, where he spends it.

#13 johnnydakota

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 06:18 PM

Trade for JJ hardy , sign Garza and Scott Baker, and spend that 127.5 million we have avalible in 2014

#14 alphanumeric

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 07:05 PM

[/QUOTE]Nobody remaining on the FA market would command so much money that paying it would hamstring the Twins at any time in the near or distant future.[/QUOTE]

Vaild point (with the exception of Tanaka). But I still don't see much value in signing (overpaying) Stephen Drew. That said, I don't know what the BoSox offer was to him.

Btw how do upload a profile pic on here. cant seem to figure out how.

#15 snepp

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 07:59 PM

Btw how do upload a profile pic on here. cant seem to figure out how.


Click the "Settings" link in the upper right-hand corner of the forum. There's a menu option there for profile pictures. You can either link to one, or upload one.

#16 Marta Shearing

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 09:28 PM

I'd rather sign Garza and develop our position players. When Meyer, May, Gibson, etc. are ready to contribute and the rotation becomes crowded, trade pitchers to fill positions of need.

2015:
1. CF Buxton
2. LF Rosario
3. 1B Mauer
4. 3B Sano
5. DH Arcia
6. 2B Dozier
7. RF Hicks
8. C Pinto
9. SS million dollar question

Moving Dozier to SS would be foolish. He is a gold glove caliber 2nd baseman. Don't mess wirh that.

#17 nicksaviking

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Posted 24 December 2013 - 11:44 PM

I like the agressiveness but I just don't like the players. The money isn't an issue but the roster spots are. I don't want to commit three years to a SS who has never even had three healthy years in his career. I also don't want to lock up the DH spot for the next three years; I like that position being much more flexible.

#18 twinsguy14

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Posted 25 December 2013 - 12:15 AM

Kendrys to me is the best pick up. Right handed power at Target Field. Fill DH spot with a capable hitter and a occasional backup at first. I just think in our best years, the DH spot had a regular solid hitter in place, not as a revolving door for marginal players. Even in the 2002-2010 run, the one piece I think we were missing was that big bat in the DH spot. Plus the money is there. Get it done!!!

#19 Sconnie

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Posted 25 December 2013 - 12:35 AM

I agreed with Drew before reading, but I was skeptical of the idea of Morales. I don't think that Morales provides a position of "need". However you have made a good point of its more important to improve the team than fill need at this point. In a year or two, the narrative should change to gap fullfillment...

#20 Otwins

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Posted 25 December 2013 - 01:04 AM

Not that entused about Drew. Injury history is a concern. I also think his offensive numbers would suffer at Target field. He has played in Arizona and Fenway. Two very good hitters parks. I do think money factors into these signings even though the Twins have plenty. There is always the next deal, next move to make. Injuries happen and you need flexibility.

#21 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 25 December 2013 - 01:12 AM

Kendrys to me is the best pick up. Right handed power at Target Field. Fill DH spot with a capable hitter and a occasional backup at first. I just think in our best years, the DH spot had a regular solid hitter in place, not as a revolving door for marginal players. Even in the 2002-2010 run, the one piece I think we were missing was that big bat in the DH spot. Plus the money is there. Get it done!!!


I agree with you. Pencil in a right-handed hitter with power in the 4 or 5 and be done with it.

Christmas List
1. Arroyo in, Correia traded
2. Morales in, Hammer traded
3. Drew in
4. Justin Turner in, Florimon and/or Escobar out

Christmas only comes once a year.

#22 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 25 December 2013 - 10:07 AM

Get em both done, TR.

If he's not trying to win in 2014, why sign the pitchers? Since you're trying to win in 2014, why leave obvious upgrades on the table when there's small cost to go get them?

#23 Brandon

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Posted 25 December 2013 - 10:19 AM

To play devils advocate.... Here is the list of SS for next free agent market when we will have a lower spot in the draft order and have our prospects with 1 more year experience. That list has comparable SS to Drew and are FA when we are still looking to upgrade the team.

Shortstops
Mike Aviles (34) - club option
Asdrubal Cabrera (29)
Yunel Escobar (32) - $5MM club option
Rafael Furcal (37)
J.J. Hardy (32)
Derek Jeter (41)
Jed Lowrie (31)
Hiroyuki Nakajima (32) - $5.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Nick Punto (37) - club/vesting option
Hanley Ramirez (31)
Jimmy Rollins (36) - vesting/club/player option

http://www.mlbtrader...ree-agents.html

#24 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 25 December 2013 - 10:25 AM

Get em both done, TR.

If he's not trying to win in 2014, why sign the pitchers? Since you're trying to win in 2014, why leave obvious upgrades on the table when there's small cost to go get them?


Which specific upgrades are obvious / low cost? Impact player and low cost generally do not go together.

#25 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 25 December 2013 - 10:59 AM

Which specific upgrades are obvious / low cost?

The two in the article this thread is about?

#26 goulik

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Posted 25 December 2013 - 11:11 AM

To play devils advocate.... Here is the list of SS for next free agent market when we will have a lower spot in the draft order and have our prospects with 1 more year experience. That list has comparable SS to Drew and are FA when we are still looking to upgrade the team.

Shortstops
Mike Aviles (34) - club option
Asdrubal Cabrera (29)
Yunel Escobar (32) - $5MM club option
Rafael Furcal (37)
J.J. Hardy (32)
Derek Jeter (41)
Jed Lowrie (31)
Hiroyuki Nakajima (32) - $5.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Nick Punto (37) - club/vesting option
Hanley Ramirez (31)
Jimmy Rollins (36) - vesting/club/player option

http://www.mlbtrader...ree-agents.html


If we are much lower, we lose a first round instead of second round pick...What is that cut off?

#27 johnnydakota

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Posted 25 December 2013 - 11:11 AM

Asking the question can Terry change his stripes, well , lets take a look,after adjusting for baseball inflation the current payroll is well below the 2009 seaons of 79 million, Mr.Ryan signed the safest free agent out there in Ricky Nolasco( a good signing) but then proceeded to sign hope after hope after hope,Next he has the media report every Idea they talk about.
At 1 time we were in on 4 pitchers , and then the truth came out , Terry had not even made an offer to any of them except Pelfrey.So no Terry is Terry , the Junk Yard King, who season after season prefers to pocket bonuses ,rather then take a chance on quality free agents.

Now some will work out but most wont, The Ryanites will praise him as the greatest ever and most intelegent GM, while most will simply understand that he got lucky on a couple of players. Merry CHRISTmas to every baseball fan,and God bless our troops .

Thanks TD for giving us a place to play

#28 roger

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Posted 25 December 2013 - 11:45 AM

Great read, thanks Jim.

In addition to creating some interesting day dreaming, liked that you have Rosario back in left field.

#29 stringer bell

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Posted 25 December 2013 - 11:52 AM

In regard to acquiring Morales, could there be a mechanism where the Mariners re-sign Morales to terms that the Twins negotiate and then send him to the Twins for either a C prospect or money? This would be something like the sign-and-trade deals that the NBA teams make.

#30 johnnydakota

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Posted 25 December 2013 - 12:21 PM

As for signing any of the players attached to a compensation pick , I see non that are answers, or real upgrades over our prospects for longer then this season , To me Terry is building a team , a young team , wouldnt we be better served to continue the course and sign the Cuban kids Diaz and Bello, wouldnt we be better servered trading for Burch Smith and Stassi ?