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Danny Valencia traded to Royals

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#1 Danchat

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Posted 18 December 2013 - 06:43 PM

http://www.baltimore...0,7915908.story
Danny Valencia is going to his 4th major league team, the Kansas City Royals. The Orioles received OF David Lough in exchange.
And to think someone like Valencia can get you a decent outfielder. Since Plouffe is nearly the same guy, could we get a player like Lough back for him? At first glance, the Orioles won this trade, but then someone will mention Valencia is better if he only faces lefties.

#2 jokin

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Posted 18 December 2013 - 11:07 PM

http://www.baltimore...0,7915908.story
Danny Valencia is going to his 4th major league team, the Kansas City Royals. The Orioles received OF David Lough in exchange.
And to think someone like Valencia can get you a decent outfielder. Since Plouffe is nearly the same guy, could we get a player like Lough back for him? At first glance, the Orioles won this trade, but then someone will mention Valencia is better if he only faces lefties.


David Lough? Wow. And what did we get for Danny V? Oh, that's right, a Rookie Ball OF way too old for his level. On second thought, maybe the Twins shouldn't try trading with Baltimore, they seem to know what they're doing with playing other team's castoffs to their strenghths and generating new-found value.

#3 Shane Wahl

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Posted 18 December 2013 - 11:56 PM

That's a great return unless the Royals platoon him. Then it might work out for them.

#4 jokin

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 12:03 AM

That's a great return unless the Royals platoon him. Then it might work out for them.


Not tons of original thinkers in sports. A smart GM sees how another GM was able to extract value, and now he has a need and can plug that perceived "value" into his system. I hope the Twins are watching as well, because this is just the way that they could get a better deal for Plouffe when the time comes (even his last name practiaclly spells out "platoon").

#5 big dog

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 07:57 AM

Not tons of original thinkers in sports. A smart GM sees how another GM was able to extract value, and now he has a need and can plug that perceived "value" into his system. I hope the Twins are watching as well, because this is just the way that they could get a better deal for Plouffe when the time comes (even his last name practiaclly spells out "platoon").


A smart GM always tries to trade with the Royals.

#6 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 08:10 AM

The only thing this trade tells me is that Terry Ryan needs to call Dayton Moore and say "Hey, ol' buddy! Let's make a deal!".

Giving up anything of value for Danny Valencia, a guy who had all of ~170 PAs last season and succeeded (again) based on an unsustainibly high BABIP of .339, is almost comical.

The only time Valencia has had success in this league is when his BABIP is well outside the norm.

Which basically means that Danny Valencia is good when Danny Valencia is lucky. Even the bulk of his homers just cleared the fence according PitchFX. He had a 1.079 OPS at Camden Yards and a .741 OPS on the road.

The only thing Duquette did right here was recognize that he had a player on the roster whose "performance" (all 170 PAs of it) was luck-driven, called someone less intelligent than him, and hood-winked that GM into giving him something for Valencia before that player plummeted back to earth.

Was it smart for Duquette to take a flyer on Valencia? Eh, I guess so, if only because the results worked out for him. But let's not confuse genius with dumb luck. There is no way Duquette could have predicted that Valencia would thrive in a very SSS by getting lucky. Because that can be said about any player.

#7 Willihammer

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 08:37 AM

I'm not convinced one player is better than the other.

I am convinced the move makes sense for both teams in the context of their respective roster situations.

#8 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 08:43 AM

I'm not convinced one player is better than the other.

I am convinced the move makes sense for both teams in the context of their respective roster situations.


No, Lough isn't a terribly good player himself... But he's younger, is rangy enough to play the occasional CF (and therefore, be a decent fourth OF), and doesn't suffer from ugly splits.

In short, he has a better chance of being a useful player.

#9 nicksaviking

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 08:52 AM

If we grade this trade based on where each player finished in ROY voting, the Royals clearly won. 3rd place is better than 8th place. Congrats Royals, well done.

#10 Willihammer

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 09:05 AM

No, Lough isn't a terribly good player himself... But he's younger, is rangy enough to play the occasional CF (and therefore, be a decent fourth OF), and doesn't suffer from ugly splits.

In short, he has a better chance of being a useful player.


OK then, in isolation, Lough is the better lousy player.

In context, Lough would be backing up Gordon, Cain, Aoki, Dyson, and Maxwell for 3 spots. He was also out of options.

Instead of getting nothing for him they got a little depth at 3B. Its the sort of move Twins fans would applaud if TR did it.

#11 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 09:18 AM

OK then, in isolation, Lough is the better lousy player.

In context, Lough would be backing up Gordon, Cain, Aoki, Dyson, and Maxwell for 3 spots. He was also out of options.

Instead of getting nothing for him they got a little depth at 3B. Its the sort of move Twins fans would applaud if TR did it.


My issue is that I don't consider Valencia "depth". I consider him to be pretty much useless and 170 PAs with a .340 BABIP isn't going to convince me otherwise.

We've been down this road with Valencia before. If his BABIP isn't outside the norm, he's not just bad, he's a boat anchor on the roster.

#12 Willihammer

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 09:38 AM

I don't think Valencia has so far to regress. Mean BABIP is higher if you have the platoon advantage all the time, which is how Showalter used him last year.

Actually, Lough was platooned too, he had a .326 BABIP.

#13 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 09:55 AM

I don't think Valencia has so far to regress. Mean BABIP is higher if you have the platoon advantage all the time, which is how Showalter used him last year.

Actually, Lough was platooned too, he had a .326 BABIP.


But Lough had a .322 BABIP in 265 PAs against lefties. A little high but not outrageous given his speed and 8-9 IF hits in 2013.

Valencia had a .405 BABIP in 102 PAs against lefties. Not the slightest bit sustainable and that SSS makes me reel.

It should also be noted that he had a .394 BA and .429 BABIP in Camden Yards and a .286 BA and .262 BABIP away from it.

#14 Willihammer

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 10:09 AM

What was Valencia's BABIP against RHP's?

#15 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 10:13 AM

What was Valencia's BABIP against RHP's?


An absurdly low .214. Surely that will go up but that's not the trending split you want to see from a platoon candidate.

#16 Willihammer

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 10:22 AM

OK so overall, some regression is likely, but probably not completely falling off a cliff.

#17 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 10:28 AM

OK so overall, some regression is likely, but probably not completely falling off a cliff.


It depends. Valencia has only had a "normal" BABIP in one season, 2011. It was .275, which is a bit low but given his makeup, that's not unreasonably low.

And in 2011, he was below replacement level.

Unless Danny Valencia is lucky, Danny Valencia is a very bad baseball player.

#18 kab21

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 10:28 AM

I think it's borderline hilarious that people are trying to declare a winner and a loser in this trade.

#19 Willihammer

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 10:51 AM

unless danny valencia is platooned, danny valencia is a very bad baseball player.


ftfy

#20 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 11:17 AM

ftfy


Except that we don't even know if he's a quality platoon candidate, as evidenced by his .405 (!) BABIP against lefties, which is surely going to plummet.

What happens if that BABIP normalizes? Is he still a good platoon player? In this case, he probably is but he's not going to be nearly as good as he was in 2013.

Not to mention that right-handed platoon players are marginalized to begin with, as it's so easy for teams to negate his split advantage after 5-6 innings. Also, LHP starters are far more uncommon than their right-handed equivalents. If Valencia is going to play at all, he's going to get 30-40% of his ABs against RHP.

Platoons are great when they work but the left-handed hitter in a platoon is going to be far more valuable than the right-handed hitter in the same platoon.

#21 TheLeviathan

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 11:25 AM

Except that we don't even know if he's a quality platoon candidate, as evidenced by his .405 (!) BABIP against lefties, which is surely going to plummet.

What happens if that BABIP normalizes? Is he still a good platoon player? In this case, he probably is but he's not going to be nearly as good as he was in 2013.

Not to mention that right-handed platoon players are marginalized to begin with, as it's so easy for teams to negate his split advantage after 5-6 innings. Also, LHP starters are far more uncommon than their right-handed equivalents. If Valencia is going to play at all, he's going to get 30-40% of his ABs against RHP.

Platoons are great when they work but the left-handed hitter in a platoon is going to be far more valuable than the right-handed hitter in the same platoon.


His career splits still indicate a guy that could hit lefties very well. You couple that with Moustakas and you might have a nice little fit.

All they did was swap similar players with different positions. If you want to hop aboard the "Bash Dayton Moore" train, that left the Omar Infante station a few days ago. But this ain't it.

#22 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 11:30 AM

His career splits still indicate a guy that could hit lefties very well. You couple that with Moustakas and you might have a nice little fit.

All they did was swap similar players with different positions. If you want to hop aboard the "Bash Dayton Moore" train, that left the Omar Infante station a few days ago. But this ain't it.


Heh, Omar Infante.

I don't like many (maybe even most) of Moore's decisions. But I'm not trying to bash Moore... I'm taking more of a swing at the people who think Danny Valencia was some kind of brilliant acquisition by Duquette.

The Orioles got lucky with Valencia in 2013. The smartest thing Duquette did was realize that fact and shoo Danny out of town before anyone else noticed.

#23 Thrylos

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 11:41 AM

Giving up anything of value for Danny Valencia, a guy who had all of ~170 PAs last season and succeeded (again) based on an unsustainibly high BABIP of .339, is almost comical.

The only time Valencia has had success in this league is when his BABIP is well outside the norm..


What's Buxton's BABIP again? ;)

There is no such a thing as a normal BABIP for hitters and you can compare hitter's BABIPs only to the ones of other seasons of that hitter. Valencia averaged BABIP throughout his career (in the majors and minors) has been well in the .300s with the exception of 2012 (.222) and 2011 (.275). That is about 8 seasons, which suggests that 2011 and 2012 might be the aberration here. Maybe something was up with him that was not there in 2013 or maybe he made swing adjustments or "got it" in 2013. If you look at his 2013 numbers, his BABIP was above .300 in both MLB and AAA and (even more importantly maybe) his isoP was close to .250 (career high) in both leagues (for reference his isoP with the Twins was .137 each of his 2 seasons)

I guess the Royals took a bet that this is the case. We shall find out.
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#24 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 11:44 AM

What's Buxton's BABIP again? ;)

There is no such a thing as a normal BABIP for hitters and you can compare hitter's BABIPs only to the ones of other seasons of that hitter. Valencia averaged BABIP throughout his career (in the majors and minors) has been well in the .300s with the exception of 2012 (.222) and 2011 (.275). That is about 8 seasons, which suggests that 2011 and 2012 might be the aberration here. Maybe something was up with him that was not there in 2013 or maybe he made swing adjustments or "got it" in 2013. If you look at his 2013 numbers, his BABIP was above .300 in both MLB and AAA and (even more importantly maybe) his isoP was close to .250 (career high) in both leagues (for reference his isoP with the Twins was .137 each of his 2 seasons)

I guess the Royals took a bet that this is the case. We shall find out.


There are a couple of traits common with players who routinely have above-average BABIPs. Byron Buxton has speed. It's a great ability to have but also one of the first to go in a MLB player's career. Put the ball on the ground to the left side of the infield and there's a good chance he beats it out. The other end of the spectrum are the Joe Mauers and Paul Molitors of the world. Guys who simply do not swing at pitches they cannot hit and when they do swing, almost always make contact.

Danny Valencia has neither of those traits.

#25 Thrylos

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 12:09 PM

There are a couple of traits common with players who routinely have above-average BABIPs. Byron Buxton has speed. It's a great ability to have but also one of the first to go in a MLB player's career. Put the ball on the ground to the left side of the infield and there's a good chance he beats it out. The other end of the spectrum are the Joe Mauers and Paul Molitors of the world. Guys who simply do not swing at pitches they cannot hit and when they do swing, almost always make contact.

Danny Valencia has neither of those traits.


It is individual. Check the career BABIPs of these former Twins:

Non selective and slow guys:
Scott Stahoviak: .324, Marty Cordova: .314, Corey Koskie: .323, AJ Pierzinski .330 (while with the Twins)

Selective and Speedy guys:
Matt Lawton: .281

I'd say that Stahoviak might be a good Valencia comparable ;)
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#26 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 12:13 PM

It is individual. Check the career BABIPs of these former Twins:

Non selective and slow guys:
Scott Stahoviak: .324, Marty Cordova: .314, Corey Koskie: .323, AJ Pierzinski .330 (while with the Twins)

Selective and Speedy guys:
Matt Lawton: .281

I'd say that Stahoviak might be a good Valencia comparable ;)


Hah!

Hey, maybe Valencia is an outlier. It's definitely possible, I'm merely suggesting that given his makeup, it's not likely that he can sustain a perennial .330 BABIP.

#27 kab21

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 07:25 PM

But you're still ignoring that Lough also sucks. And don't even try to spin it that Lough sucks less. He sucks and isn't anything more than a bad 4th OF'er.

#28 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 08:08 PM

I didn't realize that a 27 year old who plays decent outfield defense and posted a rookie season OPS+ of 96 was such a drag on a roster.

Wait. The Twins could totally use one of those guys right now.

#29 jokin

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 09:07 PM

A smart GM always tries to trade with the Royals.


It's probably worth a shot at a pretty cheap price for KC to try DannyV as (at least a part-time) platoon partner for Melotakis @ 3B. Melotakis' career split vs. LHP is OPS .606 and in 2013 it was OPS.546. Valencia hit LHP OPS .1031 in 2013 and has hit OPS .879 career versus LHP.

#30 jokin

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Posted 19 December 2013 - 09:13 PM

I didn't realize that a 27 year old who plays decent outfield defense and posted a rookie season OPS+ of 96 was such a drag on a roster.

Wait. The Twins could totally use one of those guys right now.


LOL

Was ranked 6th overall in OF defense, pre-Arb for the next 2 years, and a fighting chance that his bat is better than everyone on the Twins 2014 roster except Arcia.