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Article: Finding Positives in Pelfrey

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#61 spycake

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 01:11 PM

But disturbingly, his 2013 SIERA doesn't confirm his sub 4.00 FIP going forward. The projecting services are not convinced that he turned it around, either. Steamer and Oliver have his ERA and FIP significantly above his career averages and/or worse than his 2013 numbers, ZIPS goes even further to the downside:


Those projections aren't looking at his 2013 splits. They may not directly factor in the injury either, except noting his lack of 2012 innings.

The fact that his 2013 results are a pretty good match for his 2009 and 2011 results (as well as 2006-2007) probably doesn't help either. And it's one reason I am still skeptical of him.

#62 Nick Nelson

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 01:34 PM

Wouldn't it make sense to give reps to Gibson, Meyer, and Deduno over Pelfrey? Nolasco, Correa, and Hughes are going to start. I think Meyer has a spot in June, his stuff is filthy and the best in our system. Does it make sense long-term to have Pelfrey instead of Gibson or Deduno?


It is not an either/or scenario. Somebody (or multiple somebodies) will get hurt. Gibson, Deduno and Meyer will all have the opportunity to pitch if they prove ready. Hopefully, building veteran depth up front prevents the need to call on those guys too soon, or to ever fall back on the Walters & De Vries of the world.

#63 tobi0040

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 01:43 PM

It is not an either/or scenario. Somebody (or multiple somebodies) will get hurt. Gibson, Deduno and Meyer will all have the opportunity to pitch if they prove ready. Hopefully, building veteran depth up front prevents the need to call on those guys too soon, or to ever fall back on the Walters & De Vries of the world.


Good point. Which of these two scenarios would yield more wins next year:

Pelfrey as a starter and Doumit/Parmalee at DH

Or

Deduno/Gibson as a starter and Corey Hart as the DH?

I know we should be able to afford both, but I have to see it to believe it.

#64 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 02:07 PM

Good point. Which of these two scenarios would yield more wins next year:

Pelfrey as a starter and Doumit/Parmalee at DH

Or

Deduno/Gibson as a starter and Corey Hart as the DH?

I know we should be able to afford both, but I have to see it to believe it.


Almost impossible to say. It's just as likely that Gibson throws a 4.00 ERA season as it is he throws a 5.50 ERA season. It's just as likely that Deduno continues his 2013 dominance as it is that his shoulder explodes in March.

And I think that's the driving force behind the Pelfrey acquisition. It's not that Ryan doesn't realize other holes in the roster exist, it's that pitching has burned the team so badly in the past three seasons and he's not going to let it happen again.

Inversely, the offense doesn't have any fewer question marks.

Does 2014 Willingham look like 2012 or 2013 Willingham?

Will Arcia progress?

Does 2014 Doumit look like 2012 or 2013 Doumit?

What the hell, Trevor Plouffe? What's wrong with you?

Chris Parmelee. Paging Chris Parmelee. Please come to the front desk and notify them whether you're a MLB hitter or not.

Aaron Hicks. LOL. He can't be worse.

And those are just the OFers and DH-types (once Sano is up and replaces Plouffe).

What we see on this roster right now is exactly why I thought Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe should have received every AB possible in 2013. The team should have already committed to a decision on those two players by now but we're facing another year of seeing "if they can hack it".

#65 mike wants wins

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 02:12 PM

What we see on this roster right now is exactly why I thought Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe should have received every AB possible in 2013. The team should have already committed to a decision on those two players by now but we're facing another year of seeing "if they can hack it".


This. 100% this.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#66 tobi0040

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 02:12 PM

Almost impossible to say. It's just as likely that Gibson throws a 4.00 ERA season as it is he throws a 5.50 ERA season. It's just as likely that Deduno continues his 2013 dominance as it is that his shoulder explodes in March.

And I think that's the driving force behind the Pelfrey acquisition. It's not that Ryan doesn't realize other holes in the roster exist, it's that pitching has burned the team so badly in the past three seasons and he's not going to let it happen again.

Inversely, the offense doesn't have any fewer question marks.

Does 2014 Willingham look like 2012 or 2013 Willingham?

Will Arcia progress?

Does 2014 Doumit look like 2012 or 2013 Doumit?

What the hell, Trevor Plouffe? What's wrong with you?

Chris Parmelee. Paging Chris Parmelee. Please come to the front desk and notify them whether you're a MLB hitter or not.

Aaron Hicks. LOL. He can't be worse.

And those are just the OFers and DH-types (once Sano is up and replaces Plouffe).

What we see on this roster right now is exactly why I thought Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe should have received every AB possible in 2013. The team should have already committed to a decision on those two players by now but we're facing another year of seeing "if they can hack it".


I think you never know for sure (like you said), but need to take calculated risks. Deduno had a 3.83 ERA last year, I think that is better than Pelfrey's ceiling at this point. Hart was hurt last year, but would likely stay healthy as a guy who gets up and swings the bat 5-6 times a few times a game. His numbers year by year are on another level than Doumit's, even in the good year Doumit had with us.

#67 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 02:17 PM

I think you never know for sure (like you said), but need to take calculated risks. Deduno had a 3.83 ERA last year, I think that is better than Pelfrey's ceiling at this point. Hart was hurt last year, but would likely stay healthy as a guy who gets up and swings the bat 5-6 times a few times a game. His numbers year by year are on another level than Doumit's, even in the good year Doumit had with us.


Aren't there rumblings that Deduno may not be healthy for Spring Training?

That's not a guy you roll the dice on based on a half season of work, IMO.

If he comes out of ST firing, find room for him. Don't count on him, though.

#68 jokin

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 02:22 PM

Almost impossible to say. It's just as likely that Gibson throws a 4.00 ERA season as it is he throws a 5.50 ERA season. It's just as likely that Deduno continues his 2013 dominance as it is that his shoulder explodes in March.

And I think that's the driving force behind the Pelfrey acquisition. It's not that Ryan doesn't realize other holes in the roster exist, it's that pitching has burned the team so badly in the past three seasons and he's not going to let it happen again.

Inversely, the offense doesn't have any fewer question marks.

Does 2014 Willingham look like 2012 or 2013 Willingham?

Will Arcia progress?

Does 2014 Doumit look like 2012 or 2013 Doumit?

What the hell, Trevor Plouffe? What's wrong with you?

Chris Parmelee. Paging Chris Parmelee. Please come to the front desk and notify them whether you're a MLB hitter or not.

Aaron Hicks. LOL. He can't be worse.

And those are just the OFers and DH-types (once Sano is up and replaces Plouffe).

What we see on this roster right now is exactly why I thought Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe should have received every AB possible in 2013. The team should have already committed to a decision on those two players by now but we're facing another year of seeing "if they can hack it".


Easily the most entertaining and spot-on offseason summation of the MN Twins and their current lot. It behooves the GM to either eliminate or answer some of these questions definitively, just to clear the clutter and the climate in Twins Territory.

#69 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 02:33 PM

Easily the most entertaining and spot-on offseason summation of the MN Twins and their current lot. It behooves the GM to either eliminate or answer some of these questions definitively, just to clear the clutter and the climate in Twins Territory.


Which is why it's pretty hard for me to get worked up about Hendriks being whooshed off the 40 man roster. It was *slightly* perplexing, especially with some of the other 40 man roster pitchers and Hendriks still having an option but at the end of the day, I just don't give a damn.

If anything, I could queue up another five names who can follow him right out the door.

At some point, the team needs to cut bait with question marks and make the team a better one going forward by opening playing time for actual prospects, guys with a future. I can't get too worked up about middling former prospects and outright failures possibly leaving the team and finding marginal success somewhere else.

#70 mike wants wins

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 02:36 PM

which is why it's pretty hard for me to get worked up about hendriks being whooshed off the 40 man roster. It was *slightly* perplexing, especially with some of the other 40 man roster pitchers and hendriks still having an option but at the end of the day, i just don't give a damn.

If anything, i could queue up another five names who can follow him right out the door.

At some point, the team needs to cut bait with question marks and make the team a better one going forward by opening playing time for actual prospects, guys with a future. I can't get too worked up about middling former prospects and outright failures possibly leaving the team and finding marginal success somewhere else.



amen

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#71 jokin

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 02:50 PM

If anything, I could queue up another five names who can follow him right out the door.

At some point, the team needs to cut bait with question marks and make the team a better one going forward by opening playing time for actual prospects, guys with a future. I can't get too worked up about middling former prospects and outright failures possibly leaving the team and finding marginal success somewhere else.


I see your five and raise you five more....

#72 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 03:02 PM

What we see on this roster right now is exactly why I thought Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe should have received every AB possible in 2013. The team should have already committed to a decision on those two players by now but we're facing another year of seeing "if they can hack it".


Brock, Plouffe has been in the organization since 2004 and Parmelee since 2006. I think the decision on both has already been made and we're just waiting for it to play out. I agree, I would prefer they cut them like Hendriks, but I believe they think if they play their cards right, they can get at least something in return. Same is true for Hammer and Doumit. No one is getting terminally blocked and we're not going to ring the bell next season anyway.

Edited by howieramone, 17 December 2013 - 03:11 PM.


#73 tobi0040

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 03:25 PM

Brock, Plouffe has been in the organization since 2004 and Parmelee since 2006. I think the decision on both has already been made and we're just waiting for it to play out. I agree, I would prefer they cut them like Hendriks, but I believe they think if they play their cards right, they can get at least something in return. Same is true for Hammer and Doumit. No one is getting terminally blocked and we're not going to ring the bell next season anyway.


Agreed. It is refreshing to see the likes of Liam moved out, Walters, Devries, etc. I am done with Parmalee. With Mauer at 1B, he needs to be a DH or corner OF. He has not shown anything that resembles that. I am not ready to give up on Hicks (way too talented and young), Gibson (51 IP is not enough), and Deduno (he has good stuff). I am OK with leaving Plouffe in there until Sano comes up because he hit 24 HR a few years back and what other option do we have at 3B. Worley and Diamond need to rip up AAA early next year or they can go as well.

#74 cmathewson

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 03:25 PM

Good point. Which of these two scenarios would yield more wins next year:

Pelfrey as a starter and Doumit/Parmalee at DH

Or

Deduno/Gibson as a starter and Corey Hart as the DH?

I know we should be able to afford both, but I have to see it to believe it.


Moot point. Signed with the Mariners.
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#75 cmathewson

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 03:33 PM

Almost impossible to say. It's just as likely that Gibson throws a 4.00 ERA season as it is he throws a 5.50 ERA season. It's just as likely that Deduno continues his 2013 dominance as it is that his shoulder explodes in March.

And I think that's the driving force behind the Pelfrey acquisition. It's not that Ryan doesn't realize other holes in the roster exist, it's that pitching has burned the team so badly in the past three seasons and he's not going to let it happen again.

Inversely, the offense doesn't have any fewer question marks.

Does 2014 Willingham look like 2012 or 2013 Willingham?

Will Arcia progress?

Does 2014 Doumit look like 2012 or 2013 Doumit?

What the hell, Trevor Plouffe? What's wrong with you?

Chris Parmelee. Paging Chris Parmelee. Please come to the front desk and notify them whether you're a MLB hitter or not.

Aaron Hicks. LOL. He can't be worse.

And those are just the OFers and DH-types (once Sano is up and replaces Plouffe).

What we see on this roster right now is exactly why I thought Chris Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe should have received every AB possible in 2013. The team should have already committed to a decision on those two players by now but we're facing another year of seeing "if they can hack it".


I think they have given Plouffe as many at bats as he can handle. Prmelee was just lost at the plate. I wouldn't be surprised to see him DFAd at the end of ST, if not before. Hicks was rushed. But he still has a lot of upside. Arcia will progress. Willingham was hurt a lot last year. He won't likely have another year like 2012. But 2013 is his floor. Look around the diamond and the only position player who exceeded expectations was Dozier. Plan on him regressing and the others experiencing the other kinds of regression to the mean.

But I get your point. They have a lot of question marks on offense. The difference is, they also have a lot of top offensive talent coming up. Outside of Meyer, we can't say that about their pitching depth.

Also, FA pitchers are a little less risky than FA position players. Pitchers can be flakes and still fit in. The Mike Lamb's and Tony Bautista's of the world are not just bad on the field. They poison the dugout.
"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

#76 Thrylos

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 04:51 PM

About that Plouffe/Parmelee discussion:

When was the last time that Terry Ryan DFA'd/cut/released a first round draft pick who have reached the majors?

They will both be given opportunities. I like Plouffe as a corner OF more than I liked Cuddyer when that move was made. And Plouffe will move there as soon as Sano is up. Parmelee's future is a tad trickier, because with the Kubel signing it gets really complicated even if Doumit is toast, assuming that Kubel will share the DH role with Willingham (which should happen.) With Arcia and Mauer both LHBs there is just not much space for Parmelee other than the Kubel spot.
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#77 TheLeviathan

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 06:09 PM

It is not an either/or scenario. Somebody (or multiple somebodies) will get hurt. Gibson, Deduno and Meyer will all have the opportunity to pitch if they prove ready. Hopefully, building veteran depth up front prevents the need to call on those guys too soon, or to ever fall back on the Walters & De Vries of the world.


The problem is thata lot of the better depth we now have cant be stashed. Stashing Gibson could be counter-productive, especially for a franchise that tends to favor experience over promise. And it could be difficult to stash Deduno, Diamond, and Worley. At the end of the day option 6 or 7 may not be much better than usual and we still aren't auditioning parts of the future.

Pelfrey might be a steal, but I can't feel good about him until Correia is gone or this supposed depth is retained or moved some how. Otherwise it feels like we're still leaving future question marks in favor of "meh " vets.

#78 spycake

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 06:15 PM

When was the last time that Terry Ryan DFA'd/cut/released a first round draft pick who have reached the majors?.


Does Adam Johnson count?

#79 Kwak

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 06:22 PM

Does Adam Johnson count?


I thought Perkins had to be DFA'd to demote him to AAA to convert him to a RP. Wouldn't that count as "cut"? Also, were Kyle Waldrop and Matt Fox promoted and then released?

In, short it's not unprecedented that Ryan gives-up on a 1st round choice.

Would Delmon Young qualify?

#80 jokin

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 06:23 PM

The problem is thata lot of the better depth we now have cant be stashed. Stashing Gibson could be counter-productive, especially for a franchise that tends to favor experience over promise. And it could be difficult to stash Deduno, Diamond, and Worley. At the end of the day option 6 or 7 may not be much better than usual and we still aren't auditioning parts of the future.

Pelfrey might be a steal, but I can't feel good about him until Correia is gone or this supposed depth is retained or moved some how. Otherwise it feels like we're still leaving future question marks in favor of "meh " vets.


Because it now appears that the Twins will not be willing to go one bridge farther to get an SP at the next level above Nolasco (Garza, et al), this "fix" is more closely resembling the bullpen remedy of two years ago- the "solution" being based on quantity, hoping that somehow a rotation shakes itself out and makes itself evident. Like in 2012, it's bound to produce better overall numbers from the rotation, but really, as in 2012, it's still more of a Band-Aid approach- I've predicted 70-74 wins after Nolasco/Hughes- pending further improvements, Pelfrey may (or may not) move that number to 76-

My immediate thought on the signing of Pelfrey was that they must have a trading partner in mind for Correia in a package with some of the other extra baggage, to clear the decks for another signing and for the rookies to take their rightful place at some point in 2014. I hope that thought is still operative in TR's mind.

#81 Thrylos

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 06:36 PM

No. Perkins was optioned. He had a grievance about the timing of the option
Both Waldrop and Fox left as minor league free agents.
Young was not a Twins' first rounder and he was traded not cut

Adam Jonhson may count, but that was just 9 games over 2 seasons he played. Nothing like Plouffee, Cuddyer or Parmelee...
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#82 DocBauer

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Posted 18 December 2013 - 10:33 PM

Oh my!

This thread has taken on a very broad life of its own, and is obviously covering the entire breadth of the 2014 Twins we all love so much. It would be virtually impossible to cut and paste every comment I'd like t address and agree with.

Isnt this version of the hot stove just the best ever? LoL

To attempt to address some of the primary points:

Ryan is not done yet. He will be addressing some useful pieces to the bench still. Probably a C, an INF who can hit and play a little, and probably a flyer at least n an OF as insurance for Mastro health and Hicks development. But positionally speaking, I see no major trades or FA signings. (Unless there is a surprise a SS). At this point in the rebuild, you just don't trade young talent, great young talent, just to add a decent ML player. Do you really try to acquire someone to replace or block Pinto, Arcia, Sano, Buxton, Hicks and Rosario? Not to mention a healthy Mauer, Dozier and rebounding Willingham. (primary DH hopefully) No. You add a couple pieces t supplement.

And be honest for a moment, could the Twins offense this next season, even with the players we currently have, no uber prospects ready to suddenly break-out, just a new season, better health, in some cases mild improvement, be any worse than last season?

Thinking a strong and obvious NO.

As to the jist of this article, the Pelfrey signing, I admit to some struggle. I have debated this signing since the end of last season internally, and with my own father, a rabid Twins fan who raised me as such, and has been an ardent and informed fan since they arrived in Minnesota. Probably forgotten more about Twins history than any of us can even know.

Ultimately, it's a good signing in my opinion.

Yes I wanted Garza. But I think it's becoming clear that the YEARS may not make sense. Nolasco and Hughes are good, quality signings that in years past we would be doing cartwheels over. And both have real potential. Garza and Arroyo come with their own separate question marks that make me a bit uneasy, though cant say I'd complain too much.

Pelfrey has some real talent, though his career has been somewhat up and down. He showed some real flashes last year once he got his legs underneath him, before running out of gas late. Now a full year plus removed from TJ, we might see more of that consistency, and probably will. His contract does nothing to hinder our youngsters. He gives us a 4 deep pitching option of at least decent SP to open ST with.

I hear and understand the arguments how we might be "too deep" in SP to begin ST. Really? Is that a real thing? Name me a ball club that goes through the spring without a single SP that doesn't have a blister, or a strain, or a pull, or some twinge to slow or shelve someone, even for just a few weeks.

I LOVE Deduno if/when healthy and hope he is! I truly believe he is an electric and erratic arm who learned to take something off his stuff, and was a late bloomer. But he might not be ready at the start. Diamond and Worley have talent, have shown what they can do when right, and might be right again. I hope they do/are. But what if the don't?

Gibson? I think he's a serious #2 potentially, but no matter how hard you try to spin it, last year was his first year coming back from TJ surgery. Not saying, again, I don't believe in the kid, but it takes time. Sure I want him kicking butt and taking names from day one, and I hope he does. But is spending a month or so in AAA pitching every 5th day to stetch himself out really a bad thing?

Point is, this is a solid and not very expensive signing that gives us depth and flexibility. In an ideal world, everyone is healthy and pitching like they belong,and we can trade Correia to someone a little less fortunate in the SP department due to injury or otherwise, and all the younger guys, Gibson, Worley and Diamond rock and we can make a deal.

But depth is never a bad thing.