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Twins going too far this off-season?

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#1 Trautmann13

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 10:42 AM

With the big signing of Nolasco and Hughes last month and the recent re-signing of Pelfrey (God, please no), the Twins are reportedly still in on Arroyo, Maholm, and possibly even Garza. If Minnesota signs another on of these starters, would they have gone too far in signing starting pitchers? With Diamond, Correia, Deduno, Worley, Albers, Gibson and potentially Meyer and May ready and capable (for the most part) for a starting job, are the Twins over signing so far?

#2 gunnarthor

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 10:48 AM

I don't think so but I don't think it happens. In reality, only Nolasco, Hughes and Gibson really matter. Correia will be gone after this year and Pelfrey is just a backend guy. Deduno may not even be that. Twins should be better next year - maybe even pushing for .500 - but only Nolasco, Hughes and Gibson should be expected to be part of the next winning Twins team and that lets the Twins bring up guys like Meyer and May or sign someone else longterm next offseason.

#3 mike wants wins

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 10:56 AM

It only matters if it keeps them from:

A: starting the best pitchers for some reason
B: signing/acquiring position players (which I think is the actual risk right now)
Lighten up Francis....

#4 Oxtung

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 11:00 AM

The Nolasco signing was OK. The Hughes signing I disagreed with but not terrible, but there was no good reason to resign Pelfrey. He has very little upside and now takes a rotation spot for the next 2 seasons. The Twins would have been better suited to trying to trade for an actual good pitcher, letting one of the young guys with a future take the spot or waiting and signing a real upgrade next off season. Pelfrey makes no sense on a 2 year deal.

#5 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 11:02 AM

When you had the worst pitching staff in baseball the last two years, you can't go far enough IMO.

The Twins shouldn't be NOT making moves for guys like DeDuno, Diamond, Albers etc

#6 Winston Smith

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 11:05 AM

The saying goes you can never have enough pitching. Of course, it makes more sense if you put "good" in front of pitching. At this point I think the hope is with enough guys thrown against the wall some of them will stick and at the same time not stink like last year.

I agree with Mike on the offense, where is that coming from?

May all our prospects be All Stars and the beer be free.


#7 JB_Iowa

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 11:13 AM

In on Garza I can understand. Anyone else? I just don't get it. Much better to put that money toward a catcher and bat(s). (Yes, I know there could be 40-man problems but there just aren't that many indispensables on the 40-man -- we could later have some regrets about a DFA or trade but that is part of the risk of baseball. You have to be able to rely upon your talent evaluators.)

#8 Dman

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 11:44 AM

I don't see Hughes, Pelfrey or Coreria being long term answers for the Twins but they are decent bounce back candidates that might net them something at the trade deadlines In the coming years. They have things lined up right now so that they will have someone they can possibly trade each of the next three years. considering we are two or three years away from being better than average I like that strategy.

They are at the point now though where if they get someone else they need to be really good as we don't have the roster space for an average pitcher to make sense unless TR has some trades in mind that we don't know about. I like that they are not satisfied with what they have and who knows maybe they can find a good deal out there yet. Let's buy as much talent as we can to potentially create trade bait and turn this team around. The team has the money to take some risks and some of them are bound to work out well.

#9 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 03:40 PM

When you had the worst pitching staff in baseball the last two years, you can't go far enough IMO.

The Twins shouldn't be NOT making moves for guys like DeDuno, Diamond, Albers etc


That hits the nail squarely on the head.

Of the following players who could make a case for being in the opening day lineup: Worley, Deduno, Diamond, Albers, [SIZE=2]Hendricks, Hernandez,[/SIZE] the guy who came over in the Morneau trade, Gibson, Meyer. The only two you worry about blocking are Gibson and Meyer, and I would bank on both of those guys getting some service time this year.

No disrespect intended to any of the other guys, but they have not proven they are good enough to be part of a good rotation and you can only give someone so many chances (see: Hendricks, Liam). Give them another role, stash them in AAA if possible, or let them go and wish them success with another club.

#10 kab21

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 05:26 PM

The only problem with the offseason is that the Twins have ignored adding anything to a pretty bad offense. Long term this could work out since the Twins best prospects are hitters but 2014 could be an awful year offensively.

#11 PseudoSABR

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 05:43 PM

Having too many deserving starters and not enough innings would be a lovely predicament for the Twins. One they haven't had in probably a decade.

#12 mcrow

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 05:43 PM

No, I like what they're doing so far.


They have:

Nolasco
Correia
Hughes
Pelfrey

To mix in with some young guys. Pelfrey was solid the second half of the season, if we get that out of him next year I can handle that for a 4th-5th starter.

The Twins needed options with some experience and now they have them. Now, if they add one more vet they can potentially have 5 vet starters out there with a couple of younger guys battling for the 5th spot or there when someone melts down.

Some people hate the Pefrey signing but I believe he was around a 4.5 ERA the second half.

Generally speaking it is not a good thing to have three spots in the rotation that your young starters more than likely will have to fill. Ideally, you have four experienced starters and maybe one spot that one of your prospects can fight for.

#13 kab21

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 06:24 PM

Blows my mind with some Twins fans. Honestly, who did you people want them to sign this year? Nolasco is really one of the only sure bets on the FA market. They took a chance on a guy who has really good numbers outside of NY. Pelfrey is sort of a weird signing, but still he is the third pitcher being brought in. What catcher is there to sign? What bat is going to come in and make the Twins better? Read this if you still think there are impact bats out there. Signing a guy from that list doesn't make sense unless you think Drew is a player who will be better than what we have in 2-3 years. Personally, I say roll the dice with Jorge Polanco, Levi Michael, Danny Santana, or a latin player.


Do you honestly think somebody needs to be an impact bat to make the Twins offense better? We are talking about a team that projects to start Florimon, Plouffe, Parmelee, Presley and two young, unproven hitters in Pinto and Arcia.

I also find it strange that you make an argument that most of the MLB ready pitchers as trash (they aren't great) but think it would be difficult to upgrade the offense in FA or trades. The Twins offense is not full of MLB starting caliber players and I would project them as a bottom 5 offense in the majors.

I also have no idea how you can spin signing Drew as a negative and then list a bunch of crappy prospects (Santana is a utility player, Michael absolutely sucks and Polanco is 2+ years away) as an argument against signing Drew.

I don't have a problem with the pitching moves made although Pelfrey is lackluster but it isn't mission impossible to upgrade one of the majors worst offenses that is full of marginal MLB players.

#14 tcarlic

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 06:49 PM

Do you honestly think somebody needs to be an impact bat to make the Twins offense better? We are talking about a team that projects to start Florimon, Plouffe, Parmelee, Presley and two young, unproven hitters in Pinto and Arcia.

I also find it strange that you make an argument that most of the MLB ready pitchers as trash (they aren't great) but think it would be difficult to upgrade the offense in FA or trades. The Twins offense is not full of MLB starting caliber players and I would project them as a bottom 5 offense in the majors.

I also have no idea how you can spin signing Drew as a negative and then list a bunch of crappy prospects (Santana is a utility player, Michael absolutely sucks and Polanco is 2+ years away) as an argument against signing Drew.

I don't have a problem with the pitching moves made although Pelfrey is lackluster but it isn't mission impossible to upgrade one of the majors worst offenses that is full of marginal MLB players.



I was posting in reference to what has been said on these boards; not in this thread. I agree Michael has been a bust - I was just mentioning SS prospects off the top of my head. Polanco is really the only legit player of that group - I agree. But in 2 years, the Twins are ready to compete and if the experiment of Polanco does not work at SS this year, perhaps you move to the FA market then or try to make a trade.

Why would you sign a 3b or CF with Sano and Buxton a year away. Arcia is 22 years old. Let him play. He will strike out, but will hit for power (2b, HR). There's really not too much left out there. I don't know man, I just think it's not worth it to spend money on those types of players, when realistically you might get a little better performance, but what will that add up to? 25 runs? 50 runs? 100 runs? The Twins need speed. Not too many burners on that list (Casilla anyone?) maybe Sizemore or Guterriez. I'd be ok with their signing.

Speaking of the pitchers - If signing Arroyo or Garza happens it is not that big of a deal to lose Albers, Diamond, or Deduno IMO.

My post was just in response to the title and was a rant; nothing personal.

#15 johnnydakota

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 07:11 PM

Bello and Diaz should be looked at very hard, and if they are thought to be ready or to be near ready ,we should spend what it takes, as we need another catcher and a Shortstop, both of these guys could grow up with the team and be part of the future

#16 kab21

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 07:23 PM

I don't understand how you can think it's not worth attempting to upgrade one of the worst offenses in baseball. We aren't talking 5-6 year contracts here. For example Corey Hart signed a 1 yr contract with the Mariners in an absolutely awful park for RH'd power hitters. Additionally the Twins have so many marginal players starting currently that it wouldn't be difficult to shuffle a player around when an elite prospect comes up.

I don't see any reason to not sign someone to a 2-3 year contract NOW because we need to see how Polanco handles SS this year. He's 2-3 yrs away and not an elite prospect. There are reasons for not signing Drew but this definitely isn't one of them.

#17 TheLeviathan

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 07:29 PM

The problem is that it isn't clear a few of the signings are better options. Worley is not a bad pitcher - he was bad last year but the guy had been pretty darn good. Deduno has some fun stuff. And Gibson is supposed to be part of the future.

All three of these guys are potentially squeezed out by two aging, hardly impressive starters. I appreciate the hell out of the effort by the Twins, I'm just not sure it's the right approach. Hughes made sense - he's got great potential to be a steal and a buy-low rebound. Nolasco is a clear upgrade. Pelfrey? Not so much on either front.

#18 Badsmerf

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 07:34 PM

I really wouldn't say they are doing too much. They have 3 straight 95+ loss season. Terry Ryan had to do something and something big. Pitching wins games. It wont take you to the playoff like KC learned in 2013, but it will win games. Luckily for the Twins, they have two of the top prospects in baseball knocking on the door, one impact bat getting his feet wet and another not far away. Combine that talent with Joe Mauer, and 2015 looks pretty good.

Now, 2014 isn't a throw-away either. Mauer, Willingham, Arcia, Dozier, Plouffe, Pinto, Kubel all have talent. Bounce back years for Willingham, Plouffe and Kubel could happen (especially with a Kubel/Plouffe platoon). This team wont be a run scoring machine, but with decent starters and a good bullpen they could score enough to be above .500.
Do or do not. There is no try.

#19 MNfan34

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 07:50 PM

I just don't see how there is a big difference between the Hughes signing and the Pelfrey signing. Grass is greener I suppose.

Consider: They are both top picks and prospects that failed to pan out in the majors as the dominant starters they once projected to be. They are both coming off of terrible overall seasons. Both had some injury issues that affected their durability. However, Pelfrey's contract is far better if these guys end up being who they were last season.

I like both signings for the same reasons, but I actually like the Pelfrey signing more due to the lower risk. Just to be clear, these guys are being paid peanuts if they hit their upside, if they flop, well . . . it would be a shame, but it's not the Barry Zito contract.

Hughes has already proven that his fastball would play well out of the bullpen, but I suspect Pelfrey could do the same if we have young starters that simply run away with the rotation spots and either of them underachieve.

Just think, they are making roughly 27 million over the next two years while Bartolo is going to make 20. Good signings.

Edited by MNfan34, 16 December 2013 - 07:55 PM.


#20 howeda7

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 12:45 AM

The first time they block a starter in AAA who is truly ready because they want more starts out of Corriea/Pelfrey, I'll worry. There's one spot open now. There will be another by June 1st. Everyone who's deserving will still get their shot.

And as for leaving no money for a bat, the current payroll is ~$83 million. Exactly the same as last year and $20-$25 million less than 2011. If we're out of money to spend, Jim Pohlad should be ashamed of himself.

#21 thetank

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 06:25 AM

They had to try. Still think they will lose 90 or more next year.

#22 AM.

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 07:29 AM

I am fine with the offseason so far. Would love a problem of needing to decide between good, performing pitchers. That hasn't happened for some time.

#23 twinscowboysbulls

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 07:35 AM

Considering there are no big name free agents other than Garza left on the market that the Twins will go after that do not cost a 2nd round pick, it appears the Twins have left room to add a big FA next off-season if needed. Just like RocketPig suggested they should..hmm correlation? I think not. RP is TR/JR.

Seriously though, if this rotation pans out and Correia is gone at the end of 2014 and we add in Meyer, that would be an upgrade in our rotation for 2015.

If Hicks and Arcia figure it out a bit more this year. If Pinto shows he is good enough and we bring up Buxton and Sano late in the year and they show enough good signs that they can be the go to option out of ST in 2015 we should be set up fairly nice. If that is the case:

Rotation:
Set

BP:
Set

Lineup:
CF Buxton
2B Dozier
1B Mauer
3B Sano
DH Arcia
C Pinto
RF Hicks
LF
SS

LF/SS would be the only holes although we would still have Florimon for SS and Rosario for LF if needed.

I could see a nice little package of one of our SP- Hughes/Nolasco/Pelfrey + Rosario or Dozier + Perkins to grab a SP/SS/OF/C depending on who doesn't pan out this year. We might not need a SP back in the deal if May and Meyer both come on strong this year. Next year could be an interesting off-season. Then whatever we didn't fill in that trade we could sign the best available FA that would come here.

C- Soto?
SS- A. Cabrera?
OF- Gardner? Hunter?
SP- lots to choose from as of now.

#24 spycake

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 08:35 AM

I agree with the posters above that say the Twins are in no danger of "blocking" anybody, and if by good fortune we wind up with 6+ quality MLB starters, that will be a blessing, not a problem.

That said, I still suspect the Twins didn't go far enough in the pitching department. They now have 4 healthy veterans in the rotation, which is an upgrade over the last two years for sure, but they all fit the same profile: alternating ERA+ seasons between 80 and 100, topping out at 6 IP/start and occasionally bottoming out near 5 IP/start. That's four guys waffling between #3 starter and #5 starter -- split the difference, and it probably averages out to four #4 starters.

It will be interesting to see what Garza gets -- his performance downside has basically been #3 starter, the upside of the Twins' four guys. Otherwise he's been a very solid and consistent #2, I'd say, around 110 ERA+ and averaging over 6 IP/start.

#25 twinscowboysbulls

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 08:42 AM

I agree with the posters above that say the Twins are in no danger of "blocking" anybody, and if by good fortune we wind up with 6+ quality MLB starters, that will be a blessing, not a problem.

That said, I still suspect the Twins didn't go far enough in the pitching department. They now have 4 healthy veterans in the rotation, which is an upgrade over the last two years for sure, but they all fit the same profile: alternating ERA+ seasons between 80 and 100, topping out at 6 IP/start and occasionally bottoming out near 5 IP/start. That's four guys waffling between #3 starter and #5 starter -- split the difference, and it probably averages out to four #4 starters.

It will be interesting to see what Garza gets -- his performance downside has basically been #3 starter, the upside of the Twins' four guys. Otherwise he's been a very solid and consistent #2, I'd say, around 110 ERA+ and averaging over 6 IP/start.


It's odd that he hasn't signed yet. He should sign somewhere before the Tanaka frenzy begins. If Tanaka gets posted, Garza gets less money IMO. It's risky, because if Tanaka doesn't get posted, Garza will get a considerable amount more.

#26 Dman

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 09:01 AM

It's odd that he hasn't signed yet. He should sign somewhere before the Tanaka frenzy begins. If Tanaka gets posted, Garza gets less money IMO. It's risky, because if Tanaka doesn't get posted, Garza will get a considerable amount more.


In my opinion he gets more by waiting no matter what the outcome is for Tanaka, but in order to do that he needs to wait for the Tanaka scenario to play out. For whatever reason teams seem to be saving their money or targeting TanAka as their first choice. So even though they might be interested in Garza they are not ready to pony up their best offer yet as they want to see if they get Tanaka. Once Tanaka signs then whoever lost out will likely go hard after Garza as he will be the best option left. So I think waiting is in Garza's best interest right now.

#27 kab21

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 10:32 AM

And as for leaving no money for a bat, the current payroll is ~$83 million. Exactly the same as last year and $20-$25 million less than 2011. If we're out of money to spend, Jim Pohlad should be ashamed of himself.


You misunderstand. It's not that they don't have any money to add a bat, it's that I think they are almost too focused on pitching. There's still a lot of time left this offseason but a lot of deals and trades have already happened.

#28 twinscowboysbulls

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 10:52 AM

You misunderstand. It's not that they don't have any money to add a bat, it's that I think they are almost too focused on pitching. There's still a lot of time left this offseason but a lot of deals and trades have already happened.


There is money available I believe, but who is left worth signing for a bat? Suzuki isn't going to be expensive, Stephen Drew would be some of that money, but he costs a 2nd round pick in a "deep" draft pool. I think he would be worth it for 3 year deal, as long as it isn't over 12 mil per. Slide Florimon into a utility role, would be pretty good slot for that guy. Punto with a little pop in the stick, but probably a little less defensively.

#29 kab21

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 08:02 PM

There is money available I believe, but who is left worth signing for a bat? Suzuki isn't going to be expensive, Stephen Drew would be some of that money, but he costs a 2nd round pick in a "deep" draft pool. I think he would be worth it for 3 year deal, as long as it isn't over 12 mil per. Slide Florimon into a utility role, would be pretty good slot for that guy. Punto with a little pop in the stick, but probably a little less defensively.


That might be the point.

#30 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 17 December 2013 - 10:12 PM

That might be the point.


I really wanted them to sign Salty, now that he is off the table I think Drew is the next obvious target. Other than that, they frankly don't have a lot of options. 1st base and 3rd base are out of the question obviously. 2nd base is tough to fill and Dozier appears to be a decent stop gap at the very least for now. SS needs an upgrade IMO, Drew would be a very nice player to bring in.

OF is interesting...I think its safe to assume both Arcia and Buxton stick moving forward. Willingham is prob your LF this year, and the Twins still have guys like Rosario, Hicks etc who could fit in sooner rather than later as well. I'm not sure I would be committing long contracts to corner OF's at this point.

DH is....well DH at this point. Not sure what impact bat would make sense bringing in.

Personally I think the Twins should do the following:
1. Sign Stephen Drew: The 2nd round pick should not prevent them from doing anything. He is an immediate upgrade and at least buys you 2-3 years of stability at the position.
2. Sign a back up catcher. Suzuki is fine at this point.
3. Call up the Mariners and try to buy low on Dustin Ackley. I think Ackley is a perfect candidate to add to the Twins. He obviously has potential, is still young enough to turn the bat around. He plays a solid defense at 2nd base as well, giving the Twins some additional depth there, and if he can figure it out at the dish, might even become an option for an OF spot down the road.
4. If they balk on Ackley, trade for Montero. Montero has struggled obviously, but is still very, very young. He isn't an every day catcher most likely, but he can at least fill in 30-40 games or so behind the dish. His bat has the potential to play at DH as well if it all "clicks" and the potential for 25-30 HR power more than exists.

Additionally I think if used properly Kubel has the potential to be an impact bat this year for the club, Willingham could have a nice bounceback as well.



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