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Article: Twins and Pelfrey Agree to Deal

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#81 kemics

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 11:46 AM

Not sure if this was mentioned in the previous posts but, Mike Pelfrey was once a top prospect. Drafted #9 overall in 2005 and made his debut just over a year later. He clearly has talent, I see pitchers tend to have a few different arcs, he's been decent in the past, and should be decent again. Despite his size he'll never be a K guy.

He has had some good years in the past:

2008 13-11 3.72 ERA in 200.2 innings
2010 15-9 3.66 ERA in 204 innings
2011 7-13 4.74 ERA in 193.2 innings.

2012 he started decently before Elbow problems. It takes 2 years to fully recover from TJ as we all know, throw out last year as a recovery year and I think we could be looking at something around the 2011 Mike Pelfrey if given a fair shake, upside of 2008 or 2010 and I'll take that from our #4 or #5 starter.

As for Diamond, Gibson, Swarzak, Worley, and Deduno. I believe Gibson needs a chance to finally realize his potential and this could be the year. Swarzak should be in the pen, Is Correia really carved in stone as a starter? I don't see any reason why Worley couldn't challenge for a rotational spot.

As for Diamond and Deduno, one of them should be the LR or spot starter, I really like how Deduno looked last year, it might be time to cut loose diamond, maybe trade him for a mid level MI prospect that might be able to be util guy later in his career.

#82 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 12:03 PM

Arroyo as a pitcher who NEVER misses a start and has 9 STRAIGHT YEARS of 200+ IP is not:
a has been,
a never was,
or a run of the mill.

He would set a nice example to the rest of the rotation on preparedness and professionalism. Pelfrey is only acceptable as the #5 man in the rotation and as cheap trade bait back to the NL should he start the season strong.

Arroyo career: 4.19 ERA 4.39 xFIP...... In 10 full-time seasons, 1 with an ERA over 5.00.
Pelphrey career: 4.48 ERA 4.50 xFIP..... In 6 full-time seasons, 3 with an ERA over 5.00


On the other hand, Arroyo is bordering not only on a substantial decline phase for most pitchers, he's nearing the point where many pitchers completely implode and retire shortly thereafter.

Is Arroyo different? Possibly, but unlikely. The better question is "who's the smaller risk?"

And at this point, that's probably Mike Pelfrey. It's definitely Mike Pelfrey once you factor in money and years.

#83 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 12:14 PM

Before I get criticized for being negative, I will say that Kubel was a good signing.

This however, is atrociously terrible. I do not understand any defense of signing Mike Pelfrey to a two-year deal. And for those who say that he was the best Twins starter in 2013 . . . . Correia and Deduno were the two best. Case closed.


Correia was definitely better than Pelfrey. Deduno... Well, he didn't pitch much but when he did, he was better than Pelfrey.

The question here shouldn't be Mike Pelfrey's 2013 stat line and whether it was good enough to stick in a rotation. It wasn't. The question here is whether Mike Pelfrey's 2014 will resemble the second half of 2013 or 2013 as a whole.

The guy was coming back from TJS and after being horrible in the first three months of the season, he rebounded and put together a decent second half before tailing off in September (as guys who miss a full season are wont to do as they wear down). Can he repeat that over an entire season? Hard to say.

This is a decent buy low signing. It's Nick Blackburn money on a guy who has the potential to be a solid #4/5 guy if he can repeat his second half. He's not old. His put up decent strikeout numbers, though nothing to get too excited about.

On the other hand, I'd just as soon see Worley, Deduno, and Diamond compete for his spot in the rotation. The signing is pretty "meh" to me overall but I think it's a better signing than Arroyo at $30m+ and three years. While Mike Pelfrey is a risk, I think you can basically write off Arroyo's third season and $10m because he's going to be 40 years old and, in all likelihood, completely useless as a starter by that point.

#84 thetank

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 12:26 PM

I doubt Pelfrey is going to get any better than he was last year.

#85 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 05:29 PM

ERA Predictions for the coming year:

Pelfrey - 3.87
Nolasco - 4.19
Hughes - 3.96
Correia - 4.56
5th Starter - 4.44

That will drop our team SP ERA over a point in one year.

#86 goulik

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 05:39 PM

ERA Predictions for the coming year:

Pelfrey - 3.87
Nolasco - 4.19
Hughes - 3.96
Correia - 4.56
5th Starter - 4.44

That will drop our team SP ERA over a point in one year.


I like the optimism but I would love to see a Twins pitcher with less than a 3.50 ERA...

#87 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 05:46 PM

I doubt Pelfrey is going to get any better than he was last year.


Coming off TJS in record time, pitching horribly in the first half before putting together a mediocre 2-3 month stretch... Really, you don't think he'll be any better than he was last season?

#88 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 07:20 PM

I like the optimism but I would love to see a Twins pitcher with less than a 3.50 ERA...


Meyer 2015 ERA - 3.11
Meyer 2016 ERA - 2.92

How's that for optimism? :th_alc:

#89 Riverbrian

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 07:28 PM

ERA Predictions for the coming year:

Pelfrey - 3.87
Nolasco - 4.19
Hughes - 3.96
Correia - 4.56
5th Starter - 4.44

That will drop our team SP ERA over a point in one year.


I'll go with:

Nolasco 3.40
Hughes 4.60
Correia 4.05
Pelfrey 4.20
Deduno 3.10

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#90 johnnydakota

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 07:40 PM

I'll go with:

Nolasco 3.40
Hughes 4.60
Correia 4.05
Pelfrey 4.20
Deduno 3.10


So each and every pitcher will best there career averages for ERA,except Hughes who has a 4.53 career ERA,Hope you right

#91 stringer bell

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 08:15 PM

The Twins have acquired some off-the-chart bombs-Nishioka, Marquis, and (on last year) Worley. Some of that is probably their fault, but some of it is really rotten luck. I thought the club got lucky over and over late in the last decade (Span and a half season of Lexi for two position player examples) and they've seemed to be snakebit since. If there is anything to things evening out, they should get far above expected performance from someone.

#92 tobi0040

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 08:41 PM

ERA, W-L :) Thielbar was the best reliever, too, right?

Check out his FIP, K%, WAR.
Check out his BABIP and stranded% to figure out why the bloated ERA and WHIP.

And I like Pelfrey about as much as Ervin Santana for the $ in this team.


We could point to a number of stats to make a point.But let's not overthink this. The team with the most runs per game wins. Last year Deduno gave up 3.83 per 9 innings. Pelfrey gave up 5.19. Deduno has the edge 4.06 to 4.48 for their careers. Tht point is Dedeno, Meyer, and probably Gibson can put up similar or better numbers next year for 400k and getting experience for the future.

#93 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 09:00 PM

So each and every pitcher will best there career averages for ERA,except Hughes who has a 4.53 career ERA,Hope you right


Either of our predictions are pretty likely. The SPers will be a whole lot better this coming year. If the BP holds steady teams will have a bunch of trouble scoring runs off us in 2014.

I'll go a step further. If Arcia does well, Hicks puts it together, Plouffe figures it out and is steady, Dozier is the "new Dozier" and Pinto hits like we all hope he can over a season....

The Twins will win the Central. Write it down, I said it first.

#94 stringer bell

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 09:08 PM

I want to see a rotation sometime next year with May, Meyer, Gibson, Pelfrey and Hughes. 6'5", 6'9", 6'6", 6'7", and 6'5". Like some wag said about a basketball team "they'll look impressive walking through airports".

#95 cmathewson

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 09:33 PM

Coming off TJS in record time, pitching horribly in the first half before putting together a mediocre 2-3 month stretch... Really, you don't think he'll be any better than he was last season?


As I said, he should be better if you just factor in the second year after TJ surgery. On the other hand, he went from 20 to 152 innings in one season, with TJ in between. So he'll probably have a longish dead arm period. I think he'll be better when his arm is lively, maybe a sub-5 ERA and an even record. But is that better than Gibson? I doubt it.
"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

#96 johnnydakota

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 10:25 PM

Either of our predictions are pretty likely. The SPers will be a whole lot better this coming year. If the BP holds steady teams will have a bunch of trouble scoring runs off us in 2014.

I'll go a step further. If Arcia does well, Hicks puts it together, Plouffe figures it out and is steady, Dozier is the "new Dozier" and Pinto hits like we all hope he can over a season....

The Twins will win the Central. Write it down, I said it first.


That is what is wrong with this team,HOPE
We hope that Pelfrey becomes a better pitcher then his career stats
We hope Hughes does better away from New York (im 1 of those )
We hope Willingham bounces back
We hope that florimon can hit .240 and keep up solid D
We hope Kubel Bounces back to Arizona type play
We hope that Worley rebounds to his 1st year caliber play
We hope that Plouffe can play average defense and remember how to hit
We hope Hicks, We hope Mastroianni , We hope Presley, we hope we hope we hope we hope, about the only certains are Perkins and Joe

#97 B Richard

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 10:48 PM

I'm no apologist when it comes to pitchers with poor senses of pace, but some of you guys are really overdoing it here. According to fangraphs, the league average for pace among starters was 21.9 seconds last year. Pelfrey came in at 24.6 in 2013 (coincidentally he has averaged a pace of 21.7 over his career). That makes 2.7 additional seconds between pitches we have to sit through. Let's say that the big Pelf averages 100 pitches per start next season. That adds 270 seconds to each start- less than 5 minutes.

There seems to be a lot of outrage here over an extra five minutes per start. One of my favorite aspects of baseball is that it is not dependent upon a clock, but rather the players themselves. I do think it's silly sometimes when guys take too long between pitches, but I have a difficult time understanding the animosity towards a man who adds less than 5 extra minutes to your experience at the ballpark.

I'd have an easier time understanding outrage towards his actual pitching performance, which has the potential to add much more than 5 minutes to each start.

#98 Kirbek

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 11:07 PM

He was nowhere near our best pitcher. Deduno had a 3.60 era. This move is mind boggling. 5-13, 5.19 era, 1.50 whip should not earn a roster spot, let alone a raise and an additional year. For all this tj talk, he had a 5.00 era in august and september. Between deduno, gibson, and meyer we have guys making no money with more upside.
And my last point, war for pitchers makes no sense. Let me provide two examples. Ervin santana has a 2.4 war and had a 3.24 era. Pelfrey's was 2.1 even though he gave up two additional er for every nine innings? the concept of wins above replacement would imply that a pitcher that allows more runs than the league average (like pelfrey) would have a negative war. pelfreys era was roughly the same as the twins starters last year and we ranked 29 out of 30.


Looking at his starts in July and August, he was pretty solid. He tailed off in September (not surprising after quick TJ recovery). Re-evaluate his season in more detail, and you may see why they wanted him back.

#99 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 06:30 AM

That is what is wrong with this team,HOPE
We hope that Pelfrey becomes a better pitcher then his career stats
We hope Hughes does better away from New York (im 1 of those )
We hope Willingham bounces back
We hope that florimon can hit .240 and keep up solid D
We hope Kubel Bounces back to Arizona type play
We hope that Worley rebounds to his 1st year caliber play
We hope that Plouffe can play average defense and remember how to hit
We hope Hicks, We hope Mastroianni , We hope Presley, we hope we hope we hope we hope, about the only certains are Perkins and Joe


Don't confuse blind hope with astute observational conclusions.

Hughes pitching better with TF as his home park is an astute observational conclusion.

Kubel bouncing back to hit .300 and 30HR is blind hope.

The rest seem somewhere in between.

As long as a team doesn't make moves solely on the basis of blind hope, I'm happy to take a few fliers on past results if they are cheap. I like having hope.

#100 Badsmerf

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Posted 16 December 2013 - 06:34 AM

As I said, he should be better if you just factor in the second year after TJ surgery. On the other hand, he went from 20 to 152 innings in one season, with TJ in between. So he'll probably have a longish dead arm period. I think he'll be better when his arm is lively, maybe a sub-5 ERA and an even record. But is that better than Gibson? I doubt it.

He doesn't have to be better than Gibson. The question should be if that is better than Deduno, in which case my answer would be probably.
Do or do not. There is no try.