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Article: Twins and Pelfrey Agree to Deal

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#41 spycake

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 09:29 PM

My guess is that while we're still technically interested in Arroyo, we might be in the same boat as the Reds, offering a one year type deal. And does Arroyo want to be on a team with 5 other likely starters?

#42 jmlease1

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 09:39 PM

Argh. Not enthusiastic about this move at all. I hope TR is smarter than me. Pelfrey did show signs of improvement in the second half of the season, but he still wasn't especially effective, no matter how many times Ron "See you in Chicago" Coomer raved about the movement on his pitches. At least it's only a 2 year deal? He'll phase out one year after Correia phases out?

What this also tells me is the Twins have little confidence that Worley and Diamond will have strong bounce-back seasons as starters. Deduno seems to have the inside track, especially with Albers having an option left. Maybe they'll try Worley/Diamond as a long guy in the pen, since they're not going to have a Rule 5 guy to protect?

I'd be much happier if this were a 1 year deal, but at least it's no more than 2. If we get Correia performance out of him it'll be a success, but it's just not the kind of move I like to see. Maybe they think they can package some of the guys who are out of options into a deal for help somewhere else?

#43 spycake

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 09:44 PM

I braced myself for Pelfrey being the biggest Twins FA acquisition of the offseason, so getting Nolasco & Hughes in addition to him should be fairly encouraging.

But I'm still a bit discouraged overall that these guys all seem to be in a similar group -- their upside seems to top out around league average, and Hughes & Pelfrey are both coming off replacement-level performances where they only averaged 5 IP per start.

As much as TR surprised us by finally opening up the checkbook, he still targeted the same kind of guys: generally cheap, lower interest, healthy but lower upside. Hope he found a diamond or two in the rough (although Nolasco's salary moves him out of the "rough" I'd say).

#44 Brad Swanson

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 09:53 PM

The more the time passes, the less I hate this deal. I do think that it means one of three things:

1. The Twins expect to move Kevin Correia before the 2014 season ends.

2. The Twins are not sold on Kyle Gibson for any part of 2014. Obviously this is true for Alex Meyer as well.

3. The Twins prefer starters who can give the team innings. Pelfrey was an innings guy before he got hurt. They'd rather have a guy who they know will give them innings than a guy who might have more upside (Deduno, Worley, even Gibson and Meyer).

This could mean that the Twins may have already given up on at least two of the Deduno, Gibson, Worley bunch. Obviously, the Twins have four guys written into the rotation and no one from last year's team really deserves the fifth spot. Although, Pelfrey didn't really earn one of the spots either, but you can at least point toward his injury as a major reason why.

If they move Correia, then they can give time to the young guys. If that isn't the plan, then they don't seem to trust the young guys.

#45 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 10:04 PM

Please let's stop with the tears for Diamond, Worley, Deduno, Hendriks, Albers, et al. When they were 4/5ths of our rotation I was as upbeat, positive, and enthusiastic as possible, but the hard truth is that the way they pitched last year they would struggle to find a spot on almost any MLB roster. They are/were Twins so I loved them, but you don't field a winning team with sentimentality. To suggest the pitchers we brought in will perform near the level we saw last year is plain silly. Our team SP ERA will almost certainly drop a full point. If the BP stays strong we will pitch well as a team.

We have one SP coming off the books per year for the next 4 years. That is awesome flexibility. Gibson will be given a spot when he is ready. Meyer will be given a spot when he is ready. In 3-4 years we could/will easily see the likes of Berrios, Gonsalves, Thorpe, and Stewert knocking on the door. Our BP should continue to be well stocked. We are set up for pitching success for the next half decade at least.

#46 MNfan34

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 10:05 PM

Really this is another low risk move. Signing a guy who has proven that he CAN be a legitimate starting pitcher over an extended period of time to set-up man money. Let's hope the incentives in his contract are tied to a hand licking cap and keeping his games under 4 hours.

I know people want to get big league experience for the Meyers and Gibsons, but why rush? It also starts the clock to their 15mil + contracts that they will get if they are as good as we hope they will be. When they are ready, it should be obvious. It's not really surprising that Gibson's less than dominance in AAA last year lead to disaster when he was called up. I also think rookie pitching + rookie catching could be a total disaster.

Injuries happen. Some team that is contending is going to lose some back end starters and will be looking around for band-aid solutions to get them to the playoffs with their bullpen intact. Maybe we see some deadline moves this year.

Best case scenario, someone steps up and pushes Pelfrey or Hughes to the pen next year or to another team in a trade. More than a few mediocre starters in the league have become excellent bullpen arms.

For these reasons I would welcome Arroyo on a 2 year or less deal too.

If all these guys pitch to their career average, our starting rotation will drop it's ERA by close to a full point.

Edited by MNfan34, 14 December 2013 - 10:15 PM.


#47 jokin

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 10:23 PM

My guess is that while we're still technically interested in Arroyo, we might be in the same boat as the Reds, offering a one year type deal. And does Arroyo want to be on a team with 5 other likely starters?


The Reds already have 5 other likely starters. On this team, he'd definitely be ahead of at least 4 others in the rotation. If the Reds are insisting on staying at 1 year, the Twins only leverage is in going all in for a solid 2 year deal. It would be a a real buzz kill if that's the only stumbling block to getting this done- the guy's a 200 IP machine, and would offer serious leadership in the preparedness, accountability, mentorship and toughness departments for this staff.

#48 jokin

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 10:26 PM

I'll repeat my very weak endorsement of the Pelfrey signing: I predict Pelfrey will have better overall numbers next year than one of the three veteran free agents signed in the last two off-seasons. He also throws a mid-90s fastball and is younger than both Nolasco and Correia. The cost isn't that high and two years isn't forever.


Two years isn't forever, it's just that whenever Pelfrey pitches, it just feels like forever.

#49 jokin

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 10:47 PM

Career numbers

Nolasco: 4.37 ERA / 3.76 FIP / 3.75 xFIP
Hughes: 4.54 ERA / 4.31 FIP / 4.31 xFIP
Pelfrey: 4.48 ERA / 4.17 FIP / 4.50 xFIP
Correia: 4.49 ERA / 4.50 FIP / 4.41 xFIP
Deduno: 4.06 ERA / 4.67 FIP / 4.32 xFIP


Paul Maholm: 4.28 ERA/ 4.18 FIP/ 4.14 xFIP

And Maholm's a lefty who is very tough on lefthanded hitters. And probably could have been acquired for the same or less money and/or years than Pelfrey.- and more tradeable, a perfect 5th starter.

Is there a bigger picture behind the scenes?- ie ,with other Boras clients and the Twins intersecting their respective interests (Boras is a walking conflict of interests). Was there anyone else ever even seriously bidding on Pelfrey's services?

I hope that Arroyo or Garza are still in play, and that some kind of deal is in the works for Deduno and/or Correia.

#50 shs_59

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 10:51 PM

THis signing has me thinking the Twins now obviously Prefer, Pelf to Correia....

And i think Correia will likely be dealt with maybe Doumit or Duensing and maybe a top 10-15 minor league talent for either a good pitching prospect or more likely a Good relief pitcher 7th/ 8th inning guy. (sean marshal ?)

#51 Kirbek

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 10:59 PM

If they still have their eyes on Arroyo, I can understand this. It takes the pressure off rushing young arms/keeps them controllable longer. I still would have rather seen them spend more on Garza though.

#52 Chance

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 11:05 PM

He just got 2 years and $11 million... he's in the rotation (at least at the start of the season).


I'm sorry I wasn't clear. I know that this move shows that he is in the rotation. I would like the move more if he was brought in to compete for a job. I don't believe that he has done anything to deserve a spot of the bat.

His history and stats are closer deserving of a minor league deal with an invite to ST than a 2/11 deal an a lock for the rotation. Again, I'm just annoyed and nit-picking. It's not the end of the world and I'm not going to blow up like I did when the signed Correia last offseason.

#53 Pius Jefferson

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 11:10 PM

Don't like the signing itself. Do like the idea that more of a focus can hopefully be placed on improving a very very questionable starting lineup.

#54 jokin

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 11:11 PM

"Has been who never was" would be a good description for Arroyo, who is 37 and has never been anything more than a run of the mill pitch to contact guy. Meanwhile, Pelfrey is just 30, and he's coming off a 2.1 WAR season a year after major surgery. I'd rather have Matt Garza, but Pelfrey is an acceptable pitcher.


Arroyo as a pitcher who NEVER misses a start and has 9 STRAIGHT YEARS of 200+ IP is not:
a has been,
a never was,
or a run of the mill.

He would set a nice example to the rest of the rotation on preparedness and professionalism. Pelfrey is only acceptable as the #5 man in the rotation and as cheap trade bait back to the NL should he start the season strong.

Arroyo career: 4.19 ERA 4.39 xFIP...... In 10 full-time seasons, 1 with an ERA over 5.00.
Pelphrey career: 4.48 ERA 4.50 xFIP..... In 6 full-time seasons, 3 with an ERA over 5.00

#55 johnnydakota

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 11:31 PM

The bottom line is this ...Terry spent 85+ million on 3 pitchers who in 2013 went a combined
22-38 with an ERA of around 4.60

#56 jokin

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 11:35 PM

The bottom line is this ...Terry spent 85+ million on 3 pitchers who in 2013 went a combined
22-38 with an ERA of around 4.60


Ya, but they're better than their numbers indicate.

#57 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 11:48 PM

Two years isn't forever, it's just that whenever Pelfrey pitches, it just feels like forever.


Haha you beat me to it. I was going to say "two years isn't forever, but two innings is."

Stringer bell, I agree we'll probably see Pelfrey outperform either Hughes or Correia whether through others DL time or maybe Pelfrey just comes on strong or whatever, so I will go along very weakly in favor of this signing too.

#58 johnnydakota

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 11:49 PM

Ya, but they're better than their numbers indicate.


We have to hope so.....Now if they can field and hit some they might have better records, but if not , they might have better stats and worse records

#59 Shane Wahl

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 12:15 AM

Before I get criticized for being negative, I will say that Kubel was a good signing.

This however, is atrociously terrible. I do not understand any defense of signing Mike Pelfrey to a two-year deal. And for those who say that he was the best Twins starter in 2013 . . . . Correia and Deduno were the two best. Case closed.

#60 jokin

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Posted 15 December 2013 - 12:15 AM

We have to hope so.....Now if they can field and hit some they might have better records, but if not , they might have better stats and worse records


We can only hope that TR doesn't come right out and essentially say "My work is done here". There's still dead weight to remove from this roster and key additions to be acquired. Ryan says he's "Open for Business", but he better be doing more than just "hanging the shingle out". Time to get creative, well, I'd settle for at least a little more original than, say, just bringing back a current Twin's brother-in-law, Jason Kubel. The Brett Anderson deal to Colorado shows that Ryan is a day late and a dollar short on what could have been a very beneficial and low-cost, low-risk, high reward deal. The Orioles love ex-Twins players, see what could happen by shaking the trees in Baltimore. The phone lines to all 29 teams and the relevant agents should be burning non-stop right into March.