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Give me Garza at 4 yrs over Pelfrey at 2

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#1 notoriousgod71

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 11:22 AM

  • The Twins have increased the value of their two-year offer to Mike Pelfrey from $10MM to $12MM, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports. The Rangers and Giants have also shown interest in Pelfrey, Neal reports.
  • Also from Neal, the stumbling block between Matt Garza and the Twins seems to be Garza's demands for a four- or five-year contract, as Minnesota isn't willing to make that long a commitment due to injury concerns. That said, Neal isn't counting the Twins out of the Garza race yet as he hears the team is still in the hunt.

#2 iTwins

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 11:25 AM

Agreed. In a pure "either / or" situation, I'll take Garza 10 times out of 10.

That'd being said, if Garza is adamant for a 5th year, I might pause and consider other options. 4 years seems like the sweet spot for Garza, any longer and I'm not as comfortable.

I don't like the second year for Pelfrey, no matter the price - he's fine as a back end arm, but let's get it done on a one year deal.

#3 mike wants wins

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 11:26 AM

Agreed. Garza might be really good. Even in his best years (in the NL), Pelfrey was not that good.
Lighten up Francis....

#4 nicksaviking

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 12:02 PM

Pelfrey wasn't good and I'd prefer other options, lots of other options. Still, a year removed from TJ surgery, I actually might prefer a two year deal because he actually might have some trade value down the road as strange as that might sound.

#5 drivlikejehu

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 12:29 PM

The Twins probably aren't the only ones worried about Garza's health. His ultimate contract might be less than expected for that reason, and might be the main reason he's in the Twins price range to begin with. So if that's an issue the Twins are right to be cautious.

I don't really get the Pelfrey thing, but the money isn't a big deal and he's at least better than Diamond and the other AAAA types.

#6 Sssuperdave

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 12:50 PM

My evaluation of pitchers is definitely skewed by how horrible our pitching has been, but Pelfrey's good year look pretty good to me. In 08 he had a 3.72 ERA over 200.2 IP, and in 2010 he had a 3.66 ERA over 204 IP. I think I'd be very pleased if he duplicated those numbers for the Twins. I suppose folks will say his peripheral numbers suggest he's unlikely to duplicate that success. I'm not that good at using more advanced stats for pitchers yet.

#7 Marta Shearing

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 01:00 PM

I'd offer him 4/$60 million with a $15 million 5th year if he pitches 400 innings the last two years.

My final offer would be 4/$64 with a $16m 5th year.

#8 PseudoSABR

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 02:50 PM

The choice between Pelfrey and Garza seems like a false one to me.

That said, what the heck is Pelfrey holding out for? He can't really expect do much better than that; unless he wants to make good on a year offer with a higher AAV. I wouldn't mind Pelfrey back, but the deal no longer seems team friendly, and the longer he isn't signed the more unlikely I think he'll come back.

The public flirtation with Garza is pretty fascinating. If given the opportunity, I think they could be players on Tanaka. I hope the Twins won't sign anyone until Tanaka gets posted.

#9 John Bonnes

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 02:59 PM

The Pelfrey thing makes no sense - none. It doesn't makes sense to give him a 2-year deal. It doesn't make sense for him to want a 2-year deal. I'm baffled by this.

#10 Brandon

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 03:17 PM

If Garza wants a 4 or 5 year deal and the Twins want to go 3 then why not do a 3 year with an option year or 2 with a decent buyout fee of 3-5 million (based on a performance criteria such as 30 starts or 180-200 innings pitched) and also give Garza an opt out should he decide he wants more money (if he meets a certain performance criteria). I am sure there is a middle ground where they can make a deal if they want to.

#11 Brandon

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 03:18 PM

I am indifferent on Pelfry resigning. I would hope that we do not sign him till after all of the better targets come off the board.

#12 Bark's Lounge

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 03:25 PM

I definitely would choose Garza over Pelfrey. Signing him to a 4-5 year contract would be big risk, just as it would be a big risk to sign the other two remaining top free agent starters Santana and Jimenez to the same contract. Where Garza wins out over those 2 pitchers, is that their is no draft pick compensation attached to Garza. Even if it is only a 2nd round pick... it is a significant factor.

The public flirtation with Garza is pretty fascinating. If given the opportunity, I think they could be players on Tanaka. I hope the Twins won't sign anyone until Tanaka gets posted.


Just like everyone else who participates on this site - if the Twins were able to acquire Tanaka - I would be ecstatic... hell, I'd probably urinate in my pants to be honest with you. It would be greater than great.

In my opinion, if Tanaka is posted, most, if not all of the MLB Organizations will throw their 20 Million Dollar hat into the ring.

I have some serious doubts that the Twins can outbid a lot of those teams and that the Twin Cities would be at the top of Tanaka's list of preferred destinations. No disrespect to Minneapolis and St. Paul (I love living here), but I would guess that the coastal US metropolises would be a target of his - where there are more creature comforts of his home land.

There he goes. One of God's own prototypes. Some kind of high powered mutant never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die.


#13 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 04:34 PM

The Pelfrey thing makes no sense - none. It doesn't makes sense to give him a 2-year deal. It doesn't make sense for him to want a 2-year deal. I'm baffled by this.

I think it makes plenty of sense for the Twins to offer him a 2 year deal, if he pitches like he did as he was getting healthier towards the end of the season (high k rate) lower ERA etc, then it's in the Twins best interest to have him cheap for two years instead of one.

As far as why he wants the 2 years- Security? Maybe he just really does want to stay in Minnesota and likes it there?

Also, I don't see this as an either/or scenario at all.
Signing Pelfrey for 12 mil total more or less doesn't stop the Twins from signing ANYONE this year or more importantly next year.

Maybe it isn't so much Garza or Pelfrey at this point. Maybe its Garza or Bailey (or someone else on the 2015 market)

The one thing I do know is this, the Twins had by far the worst starting rotation in baseball last year, the last thing they need to be worried about at this point is "having too many pitchers" they had maybe 1 and a half last year total. Worst case scenario is you have 6-7 legit guys somehow (including DeDuno, Gibson, Diamond etc) and that is one of those good problems to have.

#14 minn55441

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 05:45 PM

I think everyone would prefer Garza over Pelfrey, that is why he is looking at 15 million a year as apposed to the 5 or 6 we are offering Pelfrey. the problem is that we need another starting pitcher. If we lose out on Garza, we have to go to plan B, if we lose out on plan B we have to keep going down the line.

In my mind,that is what happened last year. Terry wasn't aggressive enough early on and by the time he had lost out on the players he wanted there was nothing of value left. Unfortunately we can't wait for Garza to make a decision. We have to continue to pursue other options, while waiting on and negotiating with him.

I would definitely go 4 years with Garza. As was mentioned, if we have to give him an option for a 5th year, so be it. If that isn't enough for him, it may be time to move on and look at other options, or more aggressively look at other options.

#15 Trevor0333

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 08:15 PM

Unless its just leverage in talks with Arroyo & Garza I have no idea what the interest in Pelfrey is. Deduno deserves a spot in the rotation, if you honestly believe Diamond & Worley are deserving & could be a #5 like TR has said. Pelfrey has no place on this roster.

Garza's injury history is better than Pelfreys, I can see not wanting to go 5 years on him or any pitcher. Nolasco's deal is basically a 4 year too with the 5th year being almost difficult to reach.

He clearly wants the security of 4-5 years. Why not toss this out to his camp. 4 year $60 million with a 5th year 15million option that vests with 350+ IP in the first 2 years combined. While also giving Garza an opt out option after year 2 where he can't be offered arbitration for giving in on the vesting option. If he reaches that vesting option, your really only risking a 3/45 on a 33 year old SP who's proven healthy 2 straight years.

Edited by Trevor0333, 13 December 2013 - 08:18 PM.


#16 kab21

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 09:14 PM

Instead of a traditional vesting option I would give him the same option that is in Lackey's contract.

2015 club option at Major League minimum salary if Lackey misses significant time with surgery for pre-existing elbow injury in 2010-14


I definitely like Garza more than Pelfrey but at a certain point I start to prefer keeping those long term dollars available for another offseason. Signing Bailey next year isn't even possible if the Twins have locked up Garza, Nolasco and Hughes for 3, 4, and 5 years for example.

#17 Kwak

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 09:34 PM

I strongly prefer Garza over Pelfrey. I think that there is "a game of chicken" being played between Garza and all of his suitors. I believe the first team to match his asking price--will get him, especially if said offer is made before Christmas. There isn't much posturing available for the Twins--losing team, probably stay that way for a few more years, and never be able to match the star power of the revenue kings when the Twins eventually reach the playoffs.

#18 johnnydakota

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 09:41 PM

If we were to sign Garza,Tanaka, Uribe,Choo and then Morales, yeah we got a shot at being in the post season...But face it if we sign both Garza and Pelfrey , we are still a sub .500 team.
we have improved some for today and for tomarrow, but lets continue to build for the future.
Diaz over Drew, and Burch Smith is still out there.1 year from last week , how many prospects will we have to protect? and how many have a real shot at helping us? lets package a few of them with some of our , not so useful players and pickup some help for tomarrow

#19 h2oface

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 09:56 PM

The 2014 free agent pitching crop looks pretty darn good. Even with the pitchers signed, and adding a third even if it is Garza, I can't see them contending for a playoff spot. It might be time cut bait and wait. As much as the Twins couldn't adapt to Garza's personality the last time around, I can't see being around Gardenhire and Anderson a success story. I would think former ALCS MVP Garza is thinking the same thing.

#20 Trevor0333

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 10:30 PM

Instead of a traditional vesting option I would give him the same option that is in Lackey's contract.

I definitely like Garza more than Pelfrey but at a certain point I start to prefer keeping those long term dollars available for another offseason. Signing Bailey next year isn't even possible if the Twins have locked up Garza, Nolasco and Hughes for 3, 4, and 5 years for example.


I do like your thought process on next year & Bailey. However I think the market will dictate providing a better option to the player than what Lackey accepted.

Unless Tanaka isnt posted until next year. The Yankees, who's luxury tax will reset & ARoid will be off the books will throw all kinds of money at Bailey. Next years SP FA is pretty thin.

Kershaw - Isnt going anywhere
Sherzer - Hard to believe the Fielder trade wasnt a precursor to re signing him
Bailey - Reds want him back but may not have the $ without moving Phillips
Iwakuma - 34 & a likely resign with M's
Lester - probably available
Peavy - 34 & not as good as Garza
Shields - With what they gave up, they have to sign him
Masterson - Garza 2.0 but will cost a pick

So basically its going to be Bailey, Masterson, Lester, & Shields who all will require picks & Peavy as the top SP FA options.

With a Sabathia, Tanaka, Pineda, Nova rotation the Yanks will be all over Bailey if he hits the market being the clear #1 SP available.

That's why I like getting Garza now on a 4 year deal. I think he would even opt out if he didnt vest his 5th year which would almost be a bonus to the Twins. Garza fior 3/30 would bridge the yougsters perfectly plus he wont cost a pick.

Edited by Trevor0333, 13 December 2013 - 10:41 PM.


#21 kab21

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 11:51 PM

I do like your thought process on next year & Bailey. However I think the market will dictate providing a better option to the player than what Lackey accepted.


Lackey got 5 years and a similar option might be the enticement to a team to sign Garza for five years since they know will get an extra year if he loses a season to TJ. It really isn't a bad option for Garza since he gets the guaranteed money.

#22 Sconnie

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Posted 14 December 2013 - 09:13 AM

I definitely would choose Garza over Pelfrey. Signing him to a 4-5 year contract would be big risk, just as it would be a big risk to sign the other two remaining top free agent starters Santana and Jimenez to the same contract. Where Garza wins out over those 2 pitchers, is that their is no draft pick compensation attached to Garza. Even if it is only a 2nd round pick... it is a significant factor.



Just like everyone else who participates on this site - if the Twins were able to acquire Tanaka - I would be ecstatic... hell, I'd probably urinate in my pants to be honest with you. It would be greater than great.

In my opinion, if Tanaka is posted, most, if not all of the MLB Organizations will throw their 20 Million Dollar hat into the ring.

I have some serious doubts that the Twins can outbid a lot of those teams and that the Twin Cities would be at the top of Tanaka's list of preferred destinations. No disrespect to Minneapolis and St. Paul (I love living here), but I would guess that the coastal US metropolises would be a target of his - where there are more creature comforts of his home land.


I don't see Garza over Pelfrey as either/or. I think TR is keeping the negotiation going as a way to make sure he can add one more free agent arm. The preference is obvious, but TR may have to sign Pelfrey as insurance before he's ready and still sign Garza. At this point, it's just Monopoly money. Pohlad and TR both know that the team is a mess, and if they don't do something quickly, the shine on Target Field will wear off, and it will be even harder to improve the team with less revenue than today.

Realistically I feel Garza has two good years left in the tank, and probably a third OK year, so I understand the reluctance to sign to a 4th or 5th, but it what you have to do to get the guy, if it's 4 years/60 mil, you have to assume the risk of the gamble that it may be 3/60.

Regarding Tanaka, I wonder if TR is gun shy, after watching Smith totally whiff on Nishioka who was supposed to be the greatest short stop in Twins history. There's a big difference between 4/60 for Garza and 4/100 (including posting fee) for Tanaka, and there's also a big talent difference between Japan and MLB that makes the inflated statistics distorted too. Regardless, I do like Tanaka, but I liked Nishioka too.