Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Photo

What kind of trade value does Sano have

  • Please log in to reply
88 replies to this topic

#21 mikecgrimes

mikecgrimes

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 304 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:07 PM

What if the Rays called and say, David Price for Sano, straight up?! Do we take that?


I'm probably not as high as some on Price and given you would still have to pay Price I probably wouldn't make the deal, but that would be an exciting move. And until about 2020 I doubt you would regret it even if it started to become clear Sano was a borderline Hall of Fame prospect. Problem is you would be dealing with Tampa so either that deal wouldn't be available or Sano is that good.

#22 Tibs

Tibs

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 938 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:18 PM

Also, La Velle E Neal III just released a report stating,

[FONT=Arial]And here's a Miguel Sano update. The slugging prospect was shut down early in winter ball season because of a strained right ulnar collateral ligament. But he's been examined in Fort Myers, Fla., and has been given a clean bill of health. He'll return to the Dominican Republic, where he'll resume throwing, then return to Fort Myers in January to train in advance of the 2014 season.[/FONT]


#23 David Woodley

David Woodley

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 8 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:19 PM

With Sano's elbow they should prob just hurry up and get the Tommy John surgery out of the way now, that way he could be back by July.

#24 johnnydakota

johnnydakota

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 1,498 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:23 PM

Nope. You're looking at several years of a 3-4 win player for 40 times the price of Sano's pre-arb seasons.

If you want Cole Hamels, go sign Matt Garza. Not quite as good but you get to keep Miguel Sano. Overall, that's a huge net gain over Hamels.


Price for Sano is a no to me automatically, 2 years left , but I would have to think about Hamel, 5 years left on contract , along with about 105 million, for a guy in AA who struggled and is now hurt....Makes me think a little, In the end I to wanna see this guy in a Twins uniform hoping for a 250-.275 hitter with a ton of power hitting in front of Buxton .

But I still have to stop and think, A real Ace for 5 years .....

#25 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 10,815 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:49 PM

Price for Sano is a no to me automatically, 2 years left , but I would have to think about Hamel, 5 years left on contract , along with about 105 million, for a guy in AA who struggled and is now hurt....Makes me think a little, In the end I to wanna see this guy in a Twins uniform hoping for a 250-.275 hitter with a ton of power hitting in front of Buxton .

But I still have to stop and think, A real Ace for 5 years .....


Sano didn't struggle in AA. He posted a .915 OPS as a 20 year old. That's domination, just not at the level he posted earlier in the minors. Again, he's 20 years old.

What good is an ace to a 66 win team, a team whose pythag record was a miserable 61 games? The Twins need a 30 game swing just to reach the playoffs.

What the Twins need are good players and lots of 'em. Garza and Sano are worth more wins per season than Cole Hamels, not to mention that you can get Garza for ~$40m less than what is owed Hamels. $40m goes a long way toward picking up another above average player like Drew.

It's an illogical move no matter how you look at it. If the Twins were an 85 win team and needed an ace, that's a move you consider. But right now they need wins, more wins, and then a couple more wins to even touch the playoffs. And for that, you need above average players at multiple positions, not one very good player at a single position.

Some people are looking at this completely in reverse, starstruck by the notion of an "ace pitcher" without really thinking about it. The Twins need a bunch of pretty good players, not a single really good player. Only when they have a handful of 2-4 WAR players will they even be competitive. One 5 WAR player isn't going to help them any more than Joe Mauer has helped them the past three years.

Teams reach the playoffs by having a handful of Michael Cuddyers on the roster, not by having a single Zack Greinke.

#26 VandyTwinsFan

VandyTwinsFan

    Member

  • Members
  • 80 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:53 PM

Hamels for 5 years and Plouffe at 3B frustrating me to no end....
or
Sano launching bombs and no 1-2 starter (other than possibly Meyer).
Shoot. That's a tough one.

#27 johnnydakota

johnnydakota

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 1,498 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:53 PM

There was an article either here or in fangraph or another site that showed , Pedro raked on the bottom 3rd or the pitchers in AA and really struggled against the top 3rd.

#28 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 10,815 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:55 PM

There was an article either here or in fangraph or another site that showed , Pedro raked on the bottom 3rd or the pitchers in AA and really struggled against the top 3rd.


Pedro? I'll assume that's an auto-correct thing and move on.

Again, Sano is 20 years old at AA. It's not the least bit surprising that he struggled a bit in AA, if you can call an OPS over .900 struggling at all.

And of course he didn't hit as well against the best pitching. You can say that about Miguel Cabrera.

Again. 20 years old.

#29 johnnydakota

johnnydakota

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 1,498 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:58 PM

Pedro?


Me bad, but Me thinks you need to read mine a little better as well, I said in the end , I want to see Sano hitting in front of Buxton, but you always have to stop and think about having an Ace locked up for 5 years, as for Garza, he aint no Ace , a good #3 is about his ceiling, he is no where near Hamel

#30 johnnydakota

johnnydakota

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 1,498 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:03 PM

Sano didn't struggle in AA. He posted a .915 OPS as a 20 year old. That's domination, just not at the level he posted earlier in the minors. Again, he's 20 years old.

What good is an ace to a 66 win team, a team whose pythag record was a miserable 61 games? The Twins need a 30 game swing just to reach the playoffs.

What the Twins need are good players and lots of 'em. Garza and Sano are worth more wins per season than Cole Hamels, not to mention that you can get Garza for ~$40m less than what is owed Hamels. $40m goes a long way toward picking up another above average player like Drew.

It's an illogical move no matter how you look at it. If the Twins were an 85 win team and needed an ace, that's a move you consider. But right now they need wins, more wins, and then a couple more wins to even touch the playoffs. And for that, you need above average players at multiple positions, not one very good player at a single position.

Some people are looking at this completely in reverse, starstruck by the notion of an "ace pitcher" without really thinking about it. The Twins need a bunch of pretty good players, not a single really good player. Only when they have a handful of 2-4 WAR players will they even be competitive. One 5 WAR player isn't going to help them any more than Joe Mauer has helped them the past three years.

Teams reach the playoffs by having a handful of Michael Cuddyers on the roster, not by having a single Zack Greinke.


What good is having a 40 homer run guy on a team that loses 66 games and is surrounded by florimons and Herrmanns? you can make the same arguement brock , wheres the logic in that?

#31 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Yes

  • Members
  • 5,129 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:08 PM

His ceiling is a young Miggy with a lower average. A shift from third base makes him Jim Thome.

A realistic expectation is .260-.280, 30 homers. Maybe an Adam Dunn type guy with better defense. Sano is big but he's athletic.
.


Not quite :)

A realistic expectation in his prime is a .300/.400/.600 line with 50 HRs. He already is a better defender than Cabrera.
-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#32 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 10,815 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:08 PM

What good is having a 40 homer run guy on a team that loses 66 games and is surrounded by florimons and Herrmanns? you can make the same arguement brock , wheres the logic in that?


My guy costs $500k a year. Your guy costs $20m a year.

Which guy makes it easier to buy above average complementary players?

For equal money, you get:
Cole Hamels - 5 seasons

For equal money, I get:
Miguel Sano - 6 seasons
Matt Garza - 4 seasons
Stephen Drew - 3 seasons

Come on.

#33 SouthDakotaFarmer

SouthDakotaFarmer

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 15 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:10 PM

I wouldn't trade Sano for the cure to AIDS. That's it.

#34 johnnydakota

johnnydakota

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 1,498 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:15 PM

My guy costs $500k a year. Your guy costs $20m a year.

Which guy makes it easier to buy above average complementary players?

For equal money, you get:
Cole Hamels - 5 seasons

For equal money, I get:
Miguel Sano - 6 seasons
Matt Garza - 4 seasons
Stephen Drew - 3 seasons

Come on.


so you think you can Pay Sano 20 million over 6 seasons?
garza 20 million over 4 seasons?
Drew 20 million over 3 seasons?

Terry better watch out cause if you can , you need to be the GM.

Brock my point was this , Price for Sano ...No way,
but how about an ACE who is locked up for 5 years in his prime?
you dont have to stop and think even for a minute?
If not then I guess you have more confidence in magic beans then I do

#35 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 10,815 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:32 PM

so you think you can Pay Sano 20 million over 6 seasons?
garza 20 million over 4 seasons?
Drew 20 million over 3 seasons?

Terry better watch out cause if you can , you need to be the GM.

Brock my point was this , Price for Sano ...No way,
but how about an ACE who is locked up for 5 years in his prime?
you dont have to stop and think even for a minute?
If not then I guess you have more confidence in magic beans then I do


Dude, Cole Hamels is going to be paid $22.5 million a year for five years.

For the $110m+ he is owed through 2018, you can get Garza for four years, Drew for three years, and pay most of Sano's six years of team control.

Simple math tells me that those three players will be worth far more wins in 2014-2018 than Cole Hamels.

#36 johnnydakota

johnnydakota

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 1,498 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:44 PM

Dude, Cole Hamels is going to be paid $22.5 million a year for five years.

For the $110m+ he is owed through 2018, you can get Garza for four years, Drew for three years, and pay most of Sano's six years of team control.

Simple math tells me that those three players will be worth far more wins in 2014-2018 than Cole Hamels.


So you say Drew and Garza will get less then 110 million for there contracts? to me that is a push (100-115) , my point wasnt about money, it was do you stop and think about an ACE under contract for 5 years, but since you bring money into it, the Twins sit about the same as opening day payroll last year, so we have another 47.5-55 million more we could spend and still be inside the 50-54% that ownership has stated. My guess is we wont come near spending it . I also stated in the end , I dont make the Trade, I want to see Sano batting in front of Buxton....PS Garza 1.4 WAR , Hamel 4.6.....

#37 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 10,815 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:48 PM

So you say Drew and Garza will get less then 110 million for there contracts? to me that is a push (100-115) , my point wasnt about money, it was do you stop and think about an ACE under contract for 5 years, but since you bring money into it, the Twins sit about the same as opening day payroll last year, so we have another 47.5-55 million more we could spend and still be inside the 50-54% that ownership has stated. My guess is we wont come near spending it . I also stated in the end , I dont make the Trade, I want to see Sano batting in front of Buxton....PS Garza 1.4 WAR , Hamel 4.6.....


Again, an ace does very little good on a 61 pythagorean win team.

The Twins need multiple above average players, not a single good player. To be frank, I don't give a rat's ass about an ace pitcher in 2014. The Twins need a bunch of 2-4 WAR players to even reach .500. One 5 WAR player isn't going to do squat, especially one that consumes Joe Mauer-esque money for five seasons.

Garza, Drew, and Sano are worth more to a 61 win pythag team than one Cole Hamels.

This isn't a difficult concept. The Twins need 30 wins to even sniff the playoffs. Cole Hamels gives them 5 wins. Still 25 short by my records.

Whereas Sano, Drew, and Garza should have a floor of 5 wins between them with a ceiling of 10+ wins.

#38 johnnydakota

johnnydakota

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 1,498 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:53 PM

And yet Terry has already surpassed you expectations this year?

#39 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 10,815 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:55 PM

And yet Terry has already surpassed you expectations this year?


Yes, because I don't believe the Twins need to sign every FA possible for the 2014 season.

My point is that if you're going to spend the money on Hamels, there are far more efficient ways of going about it if you're a 66 win team.

#40 johnnydakota

johnnydakota

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 1,498 posts

Posted 12 December 2013 - 04:07 PM

Yes, because I don't believe the Twins need to sign every FA possible for the 2014 season.

My point is that if you're going to spend the money on Hamels, there are far more efficient ways of going about it if you're a 66 win team.


You understand Brock I wanted to pick your brain, Price is a NO , but what about an ACE who is young and under contract for 5 years.
I to think we dont need to win a world series in 2014(dont believe there were enough free agents to do it this year) As for Terry being done , I hope not, we have several fringe players Im hoping he can bundle along with a prospect or 2 to add towards 2015-2017, also I would like to see A.Diaz signed, the Twins are still in on him , and they must think he is MLB ready, so instead of Drew , Diaz is younger and could grow up with the team