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What kind of trade value does Sano have

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#31 Thrylos

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:08 PM

His ceiling is a young Miggy with a lower average. A shift from third base makes him Jim Thome.

A realistic expectation is .260-.280, 30 homers. Maybe an Adam Dunn type guy with better defense. Sano is big but he's athletic.
.


Not quite :)

A realistic expectation in his prime is a .300/.400/.600 line with 50 HRs. He already is a better defender than Cabrera.
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#32 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:08 PM

What good is having a 40 homer run guy on a team that loses 66 games and is surrounded by florimons and Herrmanns? you can make the same arguement brock , wheres the logic in that?


My guy costs $500k a year. Your guy costs $20m a year.

Which guy makes it easier to buy above average complementary players?

For equal money, you get:
Cole Hamels - 5 seasons

For equal money, I get:
Miguel Sano - 6 seasons
Matt Garza - 4 seasons
Stephen Drew - 3 seasons

Come on.

#33 SouthDakotaFarmer

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:10 PM

I wouldn't trade Sano for the cure to AIDS. That's it.

#34 johnnydakota

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:15 PM

My guy costs $500k a year. Your guy costs $20m a year.

Which guy makes it easier to buy above average complementary players?

For equal money, you get:
Cole Hamels - 5 seasons

For equal money, I get:
Miguel Sano - 6 seasons
Matt Garza - 4 seasons
Stephen Drew - 3 seasons

Come on.


so you think you can Pay Sano 20 million over 6 seasons?
garza 20 million over 4 seasons?
Drew 20 million over 3 seasons?

Terry better watch out cause if you can , you need to be the GM.

Brock my point was this , Price for Sano ...No way,
but how about an ACE who is locked up for 5 years in his prime?
you dont have to stop and think even for a minute?
If not then I guess you have more confidence in magic beans then I do

#35 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:32 PM

so you think you can Pay Sano 20 million over 6 seasons?
garza 20 million over 4 seasons?
Drew 20 million over 3 seasons?

Terry better watch out cause if you can , you need to be the GM.

Brock my point was this , Price for Sano ...No way,
but how about an ACE who is locked up for 5 years in his prime?
you dont have to stop and think even for a minute?
If not then I guess you have more confidence in magic beans then I do


Dude, Cole Hamels is going to be paid $22.5 million a year for five years.

For the $110m+ he is owed through 2018, you can get Garza for four years, Drew for three years, and pay most of Sano's six years of team control.

Simple math tells me that those three players will be worth far more wins in 2014-2018 than Cole Hamels.

#36 johnnydakota

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:44 PM

Dude, Cole Hamels is going to be paid $22.5 million a year for five years.

For the $110m+ he is owed through 2018, you can get Garza for four years, Drew for three years, and pay most of Sano's six years of team control.

Simple math tells me that those three players will be worth far more wins in 2014-2018 than Cole Hamels.


So you say Drew and Garza will get less then 110 million for there contracts? to me that is a push (100-115) , my point wasnt about money, it was do you stop and think about an ACE under contract for 5 years, but since you bring money into it, the Twins sit about the same as opening day payroll last year, so we have another 47.5-55 million more we could spend and still be inside the 50-54% that ownership has stated. My guess is we wont come near spending it . I also stated in the end , I dont make the Trade, I want to see Sano batting in front of Buxton....PS Garza 1.4 WAR , Hamel 4.6.....

#37 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:48 PM

So you say Drew and Garza will get less then 110 million for there contracts? to me that is a push (100-115) , my point wasnt about money, it was do you stop and think about an ACE under contract for 5 years, but since you bring money into it, the Twins sit about the same as opening day payroll last year, so we have another 47.5-55 million more we could spend and still be inside the 50-54% that ownership has stated. My guess is we wont come near spending it . I also stated in the end , I dont make the Trade, I want to see Sano batting in front of Buxton....PS Garza 1.4 WAR , Hamel 4.6.....


Again, an ace does very little good on a 61 pythagorean win team.

The Twins need multiple above average players, not a single good player. To be frank, I don't give a rat's ass about an ace pitcher in 2014. The Twins need a bunch of 2-4 WAR players to even reach .500. One 5 WAR player isn't going to do squat, especially one that consumes Joe Mauer-esque money for five seasons.

Garza, Drew, and Sano are worth more to a 61 win pythag team than one Cole Hamels.

This isn't a difficult concept. The Twins need 30 wins to even sniff the playoffs. Cole Hamels gives them 5 wins. Still 25 short by my records.

Whereas Sano, Drew, and Garza should have a floor of 5 wins between them with a ceiling of 10+ wins.

#38 johnnydakota

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:53 PM

And yet Terry has already surpassed you expectations this year?

#39 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:55 PM

And yet Terry has already surpassed you expectations this year?


Yes, because I don't believe the Twins need to sign every FA possible for the 2014 season.

My point is that if you're going to spend the money on Hamels, there are far more efficient ways of going about it if you're a 66 win team.

#40 johnnydakota

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 04:07 PM

Yes, because I don't believe the Twins need to sign every FA possible for the 2014 season.

My point is that if you're going to spend the money on Hamels, there are far more efficient ways of going about it if you're a 66 win team.


You understand Brock I wanted to pick your brain, Price is a NO , but what about an ACE who is young and under contract for 5 years.
I to think we dont need to win a world series in 2014(dont believe there were enough free agents to do it this year) As for Terry being done , I hope not, we have several fringe players Im hoping he can bundle along with a prospect or 2 to add towards 2015-2017, also I would like to see A.Diaz signed, the Twins are still in on him , and they must think he is MLB ready, so instead of Drew , Diaz is younger and could grow up with the team

#41 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 04:09 PM

I haven't followed Diaz closely enough to know the latest rumors on money required to get him.

But in theory, it's a good idea for the Twins to pursue a player of that ilk.

#42 gil4

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 04:13 PM

But what if Ned Colletti is initiating the call and is offering Puig and Kershaw?


How much cash is he throwing in?

#43 AHSaves

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 04:45 PM

also I would like to see A.Diaz signed, the Twins are still in on him , and they must think he is MLB ready, so instead of Drew , Diaz is younger and could grow up with the team


Signing Diaz would be pretty risky. We don't know if he'd be able to walk on to any MLB team even though Cuban baseball is very respected. I've liked probably every posting you've made about him but I also think that now he has the official proven eligibility to sign for whatever price he can get. He might wind up being just a hair less expensive than Drew anyhow, who's already a proven MLB shortstop. I think I'd err on the side of signing Drew.

Trading Sano? That's just silly. Like Brock said, why don't we keep him, see what he can contribute and if we're on the edge, go sign that big FA then. I understand he can blow up in our faces, but does anyone believe that?


--------> I should mention that I think we should sign him either way. haha. I only meant risky with the idea of signing one or the other.

Edited by AHSaves, 12 December 2013 - 05:02 PM.
Clarification


#44 twinsfan34

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 05:00 PM

Trading Sano now...wouldn't make sense. You have to let that one play out.

There's multiple scouts who've scouted the Dominican for over 25 years, who said he's the best player they've ever seen come out of there.

He did only hit .236, as a 20 year old, at AA. True, but he slugged .571 SLG and .915 OPS despite that. And he had a 13% BB%. At age 20.

He struggles with fielding at 3B. He's got the strongest arm in MiLB according to many reports. If 3B doesn't work out he takes his 6'4" 243 lb frame to RF and has the best RF arm.

He's ahead of Wil Myers development cycle at the same stage AA and age.

Look at Giancarlo Stanton's 19 year old season. Earily similar. Age 19, finishing in AA. But lower numbers.

http://www.baseball-...id=stanto003mic

Again, scouts (plural) for 25 years in the Domincan, say he's the best prospect they've ever seen.

I figure his floor is Mark Trumbo, who just got 2 starting pitching prospects.

His ceiling is a more powerful Miggy but hitting .280 to .300.

#45 jokin

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 05:02 PM

Signing Diaz would be pretty risky. We don't know if he'd be able to walk on to any MLB team even though Cuban baseball is very respected. I've liked probably every posting you've made about him but I also think that now he has the official proven eligibility to sign for whatever price he can get. He might wind up being just a hair less expensive than Drew anyhow, who's already a proven MLB shortstop. I think I'd err on the side of signing Drew.

Trading Sano? That's just silly. Like Brock said, why don't we keep him, see what he can contribute and if we're on the edge, go sign that big FA then. I understand he can blow up in our faces, but does anyone believe that?


This kind of thinking can come back to haunt a club. Any potential proposed deal should be considered in the full light of day- a cost-controlled/long term/proven ace, in trade for a guy who MAY potentially be great down the road, just dismissed out of hand, that's what's silly. I hope that Sano has a long, HOF career with the Twins, but "believes" aint got nothing to do with it.

#46 jokin

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 05:17 PM

Trading Sano now...wouldn't make sense. You have to let that one play out.

There's multiple scouts who've scouted the Dominican for over 25 years, who said he's the best player they've ever seen come out of there.

He did only hit .236, as a 20 year old, at AA. True, but he slugged .571 SLG and .915 OPS despite that. And he had a 13% BB%. At age 20.

He struggles with fielding at 3B. He's got the strongest arm in MiLB according to many reports. If 3B doesn't work out he takes his 6'4" 243 lb frame to RF and has the best RF arm.

He's ahead of Wil Myers development cycle at the same stage AA and age.

Look at Giancarlo Stanton's 19 year old season. Earily similar. Age 19, finishing in AA. But lower numbers.

http://www.baseball-...id=stanto003mic

Again, scouts (plural) for 25 years in the Domincan, say he's the best prospect they've ever seen.

I figure his floor is Mark Trumbo, who just got 2 starting pitching prospects.

His ceiling is a more powerful Miggy but hitting .280 to .300.


Which makes him close to Pujols. Look, I hope the Twins never see the need to trade Sano- there's not a doubt in my mind that he has a chance to be the greatest Twins ever. And, of course, getting 2 SP prospects in trade, as in the case of Trumbo, would be absurd. But if a legitimate, proven, cost and years-controlled, healthy Ace was proposed in a package deal with extra value added, the Twins would be foolish not to at least consider the offer.

Remember, if Sano does prove to be the player we all think he can be, the Cano hold-up of the Yankees will be considered small potatoes. Are we certain that the Twins will pony up when the time comes to lock Sano up for say, 13 yrs/$500M? (Don't laugh, the contract trends point to just that type of number for the best in the game by 2020 or 21- presumably when he'd be a FA at age 26/27).

#47 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 05:23 PM

To answer the question of the OP. Sano is a consensus top 5 prospect. He has the ability to be a superstar in this league. He falls under the "untradeable" category in my book. If Boston by and offered Webster, Rayunado, Barnes, and Middlebrooks, I might bite, but that's what it would take. No team would do that.

#48 AHSaves

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 06:01 PM

If Boston by and offered Webster, Rayunado, Barnes, and Middlebrooks, I might bite, but that's what it would take. No team would do that.


Sano would slay the Green Monster. SO MANY DENTS/HOLES.

#49 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 07:02 PM

Which makes him close to Pujols. Look, I hope the Twins never see the need to trade Sano- there's not a doubt in my mind that he has a chance to be the greatest Twins ever. And, of course, getting 2 SP prospects in trade, as in the case of Trumbo, would be absurd. But if a legitimate, proven, cost and years-controlled, healthy Ace was proposed in a package deal with extra value added, the Twins would be foolish not to at least consider the offer.

Remember, if Sano does prove to be the player we all think he can be, the Cano hold-up of the Yankees will be considered small potatoes. Are we certain that the Twins will pony up when the time comes to lock Sano up for say, 13 yrs/$500M? (Don't laugh, the contract trends point to just that type of number for the best in the game by 2020 or 21- presumably when he'd be a FA at age 26/27).


I am fairly certain that we'd lock him up long before his arbitration ran out if he was trending that good. Sano should be a Twin for at least a decade (3-4 years + early extension for 6-8 years). I'll take Pujols or Cabrera for the next decade over an ace in his prime any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

When you factor in injury rates, performance decline, and just plain limited impact for a guy who only plays 1 in 5 games, the ROI in aces is just plain bad.

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#50 jokin

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 07:16 PM

I am fairly certain that we'd lock him up long before his arbitration ran out if he was trending that good. Sano should be a Twin for at least a decade (3-4 years + early extension for 6-8 years). I'll take Pujols or Cabrera for the next decade over an ace in his prime any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

When you factor in injury rates, performance decline, and just plain limited impact for a guy who only plays 1 in 5 games, the ROI in aces is just plain bad.

Home grow your own or don't go fishing.


That is heavily dependent on the hope that Sano abides by getting himself locked up in an early extension beyond his Arb years- he could be gone after 2019, or before via trade, if he and his agent feel MN is not the right fit. Pujols and Cabrera are indeed entertaining and great players, but the overall success (or the lack thereof!) of the teams they have played for have been heavily dependent on superior pitching (or the lack thereof!)..

#51 drivlikejehu

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 07:41 PM

Sano would not bring back a cost-controlled ace starter, so it's a moot discussion. And the Twins need position players almost as much as they need pitchers anyway. It's borderline trolling to suggest he should be dealt, honestly.

#52 richardkr34

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 08:50 PM

Using the Steamer Projections at Fangraphs, the combo of Drew, Garza and Sano would accumulate 6.4 WAR in 2014; Hamels would garner 3.3. I'm okay with not having Hamels' contract around the team's neck while giving up Sano.

#53 halfchest

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 09:47 PM

Matt Harvey if he didn't get injured might be the kind of guy I would consider trading Sano for 1 for 1. Would the Mets do that? I doubt it. I could also see the Twins hanging up though.

I think when you're talking guys on this level the risk of trading them is just too high. You win that trade you look awesome but you lose it and you might lose your job. I think that's why the Delmon for Garza trade was so crazy. Two very young highly rated prospects (not technically but each had like a year of service time only) rarely get traded for one another.

I really can't think of who I would consider for Sano that would be realistic. If we were the 2006 Twins and could offer a guy like Sano for Price straight up, then yes I seriously consider it. Can you imagine 2006 johan with present day Price as a 1-2?

Like so many other posts I've made and seen others make in regards to trading our prospects. It's just not quite the right time to make these trades.

The Twins might be seriously considering dealing a guy like Kepler, Berrios, or Kohl Stewart in 2015 though for a piece that puts us over the edge.

#54 richardkr34

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 10:54 PM

Matt Harvey if he didn't get injured might be the kind of guy I would consider trading Sano for 1 for 1. Would the Mets do that? I doubt it. I could also see the Twins hanging up though.

I think when you're talking guys on this level the risk of trading them is just too high. You win that trade you look awesome but you lose it and you might lose your job. I think that's why the Delmon for Garza trade was so crazy. Two very young highly rated prospects (not technically but each had like a year of service time only) rarely get traded for one another.

I really can't think of who I would consider for Sano that would be realistic. If we were the 2006 Twins and could offer a guy like Sano for Price straight up, then yes I seriously consider it. Can you imagine 2006 johan with present day Price as a 1-2?

Like so many other posts I've made and seen others make in regards to trading our prospects. It's just not quite the right time to make these trades.

The Twins might be seriously considering dealing a guy like Kepler, Berrios, or Kohl Stewart in 2015 though for a piece that puts us over the edge.



Stewart is in another galaxy than Kepler and Berrios.

#55 halfchest

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 11:07 PM

Stewart is in another galaxy than Kepler and Berrios.


probably true, just thinking of guys who won't likely be contributors in 2015 but could be top prospects in our system that might be worth trading for a surefire Ace to put us over the top.

#56 Ultima Ratio

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 11:14 PM

I just wanted to be the 37th poster to agree.
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#57 jokin

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 11:24 PM

Sano would not bring back a cost-controlled ace starter, so it's a moot discussion. And the Twins need position players almost as much as they need pitchers anyway. It's borderline trolling to suggest he should be dealt, honestly.



Says you. And the discussion about Sano specifically is ongoing, perhaps not a trade this offseason, but maybe down the road apiece, whenever his value is completely off the wall. At age 23 in his 3rd year, Reggie Jackson hit 47 homers and OPS'd at .1018, with a .608 SLG (those turned out to be his peak numbers over a 21 year career). It's difficult to imagine the level of demand Sano would generate if he put up those kind of numbers some 50 years later.

We've been discussing this very topic on TD for 3 years running. Most Twins fans agree, it's going to be extremely difficult to return to the World Series without an Ace on the staff. The farm system/drafting process has been striking out for years on end in producing one. Another Rule 5 miracle acquisition due to an inefficient market seems highly unlikely. The international route is very speculative and potentially prohibitively costly. The FA market for aces is strictly for the big boys.

Do you need any more non-trolling reasons to consider at how the Twins are in a tough place in trying to acquire an Ace and need to consider all options, even the toughest ones?

Edited by jokin, 12 December 2013 - 11:39 PM.


#58 ashburyjohn

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 11:53 PM

I just wanted to be the 37th poster to agree.


Seconded.

#59 Trevor0333

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 12:02 AM

Once executives & fan bases get as excited for transcendent type prospects like Sano, Buxton etc... even if its equal value they are always hesitiant & unlikely to part with them unless completely overwhelmed.

The Garza/Young swap is a rare type of move.

#60 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 13 December 2013 - 07:04 AM

Says you. And the discussion about Sano specifically is ongoing, perhaps not a trade this offseason, but maybe down the road apiece, whenever his value is completely off the wall. At age 23 in his 3rd year, Reggie Jackson hit 47 homers and OPS'd at .1018, with a .608 SLG (those turned out to be his peak numbers over a 21 year career). It's difficult to imagine the level of demand Sano would generate if he put up those kind of numbers some 50 years later.

We've been discussing this very topic on TD for 3 years running. Most Twins fans agree, it's going to be extremely difficult to return to the World Series without an Ace on the staff. The farm system/drafting process has been striking out for years on end in producing one. Another Rule 5 miracle acquisition due to an inefficient market seems highly unlikely. The international route is very speculative and potentially prohibitively costly. The FA market for aces is strictly for the big boys.

Do you need any more non-trolling reasons to consider at how the Twins are in a tough place in trying to acquire an Ace and need to consider all options, even the toughest ones?


All valid, non-trolling points. But I think a lot of fans tend to get hung up on the title of "Ace." In my opinion, a strong rotation headlined by a SP with a 3.5 ERA is enough to win in the playoffs. You don't have to have that superstar guy, with the gaudy 2.2 ERA and 11 SO/9. Garza or Meyer could be a good enough pitcher to fill that role for us.