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What kind of trade value does Sano have

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#1 mikecgrimes

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 08:39 AM

Sano at his best is a 3rd baseman who hit's .280 with 40 HR's which is something you can't trade away for anything less then an ace plus, but he probably eventually ends up at 1st, is starting to run into injuries, and hit .236 in AA last year. If the return is right I cash him before he reaches the majors.

#2 jokin

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 08:46 AM

Sano at his best is a 3rd baseman who hit's .280 with 40 HR's which is something you can't trade away for anything less then an ace plus, but he probably eventually ends up at 1st, is starting to run into injuries, and hit .236 in AA last year. If the return is right I cash him before he reaches the majors.


BA is not a very good hitting evaluative tool to sum up one's career, but an even worse one is SSS BA- in AA. I do agree with you, thought, that the Twins should at least listen to every "Ace + more" offer that come in for Sano.

#3 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 09:16 AM

Sano at his best is a 3rd baseman who hit's .280 with 40 HR's which is something you can't trade away for anything less then an ace plus, but he probably eventually ends up at 1st, is starting to run into injuries, and hit .236 in AA last year. If the return is right I cash him before he reaches the majors.


His ceiling is a young Miggy with a lower average. A shift from third base makes him Jim Thome.

A realistic expectation is .260-.280, 30 homers. Maybe an Adam Dunn type guy with better defense. Sano is big but he's athletic.

His floor is... Delmon Young, maybe? Unlikely that he bombs out like Delmon, though.

All of those players except Delmon Young are extremely valuable players. Trading Sano at this point is folly because any GM will be asking "why on EARTH are you trading this guy?" and adjust their offers accordingly.

#4 jokin

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 09:20 AM

His ceiling is a young Miggy with a lower average. A shift from third base makes him Jim Thome.

A realistic expectation is .260-.280, 30 homers. Maybe an Adam Dunn type guy with better defense. Sano is big but he's athletic.

His floor is... Delmon Young, maybe? Unlikely that he bombs out like Delmon, though.

All of those players except Delmon Young are extremely valuable players. Trading Sano at this point is folly because any GM will be asking "why on EARTH are you trading this guy?" and adjust their offers accordingly.


But what if Ned Colletti is initiating the call and is offering Puig and Kershaw?

#5 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 09:24 AM

But what if Ned Colletti is initiating the call and is offering Puig and Kershaw?


That's a different ballgame. It's also incredibly unlikely to happen. Why would Colletti do that?

#6 jokin

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 09:32 AM

That's a different ballgame. It's also incredibly unlikely to happen. Why would Colletti do that?


That was my point. I was using the extreme hypothetical to illustrate that Terry has no need in signaling that Sano is available and risk the perception of a dilution in Sano's value and having GMs question why he would trade him. He just needs to wait for the phone call, and then when it comes, demand a King's Ransom.

#7 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 09:37 AM

That was my point. I was using the extreme hypothetical to illustrate that Terry has no need in signaling that Sano is available and risk the perception of a dilution in Sano's value and having GMs question why he would trade him. He just needs to wait for the phone call, and then when it comes, demand a King's Ransom.


I guess that's true... But there's a 95+% chance that phone call will never come so it's really a moot point.

#8 Siehbiscuit

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 10:33 AM

What if the Rays called and say, David Price for Sano, straight up?! Do we take that?

#9 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 10:48 AM

What if the Rays called and say, David Price for Sano, straight up?! Do we take that?


I wouldn't. No freakin' way would I make that trade.

Look at Wil Myers and James Shields right now. In just more than half a season, Myers was a 2.5 win player. Extrapolate that to a full season and he's a 3-4 win player.

James Shields was a 4 win player last season.

#10 drock2190

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 10:49 AM

What if the Rays called and say, David Price for Sano, straight up?! Do we take that?


No, Sano is controlled cheaply for a bunch of years, while Price is comanding a big contract. And anywise its not like we are an ace away from a serious playoff push.

#11 cmb0252

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 11:10 AM

While it would never happen, before the dbacks traded for Trumbo I thought a Sano for Bradley type trade matched up well. Even though the Marlins have said they won't trade Stanton if we offered Sano that might change their mind. A package around Sano for Price couldn't be beaten. As I say these the Twins aren't going to trade Sano.

#12 Steve Penz

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 11:27 AM

What if the Rays called and say, David Price for Sano, straight up?! Do we take that?


For the time being the Twins should not make any trades with Tampa. Sorry. I feel like they are too sharp and there is NO way we will come out ahead. If Tampa agrees to a trade that means its a bad idea for the Twins.

#13 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 11:50 AM

For the time being the Twins should not make any trades with Tampa. Sorry. I feel like they are too sharp and there is NO way we will come out ahead. If Tampa agrees to a trade that means its a bad idea for the Twins.


Eh, I don't buy it. Terry Ryan hasn't been hosed on a trade in a very long time. The closest he has come lately is the Worley-Mays/Revere trade but there's still a lot of time left before the jury rules on that deal.

What's more likely is that Friedman and Ryan could never agree on a trade because they both want too much in return.

Terry Ryan is a very smart baseball man who doesn't give up talent without a lot in return. I don't know why everyone thinks Friedman would take him to the cleaners.

#14 IdahoPilgrim

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 12:02 PM

I understand the desire for a clear #1 starter and the value that can bring to a club and the impact that can have on the rest of the rotation as well, but I also have to think there is value in having somebody with Sano's offensive potential available to play every day, and not just one day out of five. We need some offensive punch added to the club as well as good pitching. I can remember several games where our pitching wasn't top notch but it didn't matter because Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer were just unstoppable. Would be nice to have that again, to complement an improved rotation.

#15 johnnydakota

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 01:28 PM

I wouldn't. No freakin' way would I make that trade.

Look at Wil Myers and James Shields right now. In just more than half a season, Myers was a 2.5 win player. Extrapolate that to a full season and he's a 3-4 win player.

James Shields was a 4 win player last season.


Cole Hamel for Sano?

#16 Shane Wahl

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 01:29 PM

I want to see Sano in a Twins uniform in 2014. There is no way I am trading him. No way. Imagine having a third baseman put up .250/.340/.570 numbers basically immediately.

#17 gunnarthor

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 01:39 PM

Trading Sano doesn't make a ton of sense - he's not quite ML ready like Myers was last year so a team like TB, in win-now mode, might not make a lot of sense for him. A rebuilding team would love to have him but would have to give up a lot to get him, so it might be robbing Peter to pay Paul.

About the only way I think he could be traded was if he was in Taveras or Profar's position - ie a well regarded prospect on a win-now team that needed one more piece. That ain't the Twins.

#18 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 01:48 PM

Cole Hamel for Sano?


Nope. You're looking at several years of a 3-4 win player for 40 times the price of Sano's pre-arb seasons.

If you want Cole Hamels, go sign Matt Garza. Not quite as good but you get to keep Miguel Sano. Overall, that's a huge net gain over Hamels.

#19 B Richard

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 01:55 PM

Can someone with reliable knowledge comment on Sano and to what extent we should be concerned about his elbow? I hadn't heard anything since he was pulled from the AFL
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#20 Tibs

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:01 PM

He also hit 19 homeruns in 67 games. He still managed a .915 OPS with that .236 average. There is almost no way I trade the #3 prospect in baseball right now.

#21 mikecgrimes

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:07 PM

What if the Rays called and say, David Price for Sano, straight up?! Do we take that?


I'm probably not as high as some on Price and given you would still have to pay Price I probably wouldn't make the deal, but that would be an exciting move. And until about 2020 I doubt you would regret it even if it started to become clear Sano was a borderline Hall of Fame prospect. Problem is you would be dealing with Tampa so either that deal wouldn't be available or Sano is that good.

#22 Tibs

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:18 PM

Also, La Velle E Neal III just released a report stating,

[COLOR=#333333][FONT=Arial]And here's a Miguel Sano update. The slugging prospect was shut down early in winter ball season because of a strained right ulnar collateral ligament. But he's been examined in Fort Myers, Fla., and has been given a clean bill of health. He'll return to the Dominican Republic, where he'll resume throwing, then return to Fort Myers in January to train in advance of the 2014 season.[/FONT][/COLOR]


#23 David Woodley

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:19 PM

With Sano's elbow they should prob just hurry up and get the Tommy John surgery out of the way now, that way he could be back by July.

#24 johnnydakota

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:23 PM

Nope. You're looking at several years of a 3-4 win player for 40 times the price of Sano's pre-arb seasons.

If you want Cole Hamels, go sign Matt Garza. Not quite as good but you get to keep Miguel Sano. Overall, that's a huge net gain over Hamels.


Price for Sano is a no to me automatically, 2 years left , but I would have to think about Hamel, 5 years left on contract , along with about 105 million, for a guy in AA who struggled and is now hurt....Makes me think a little, In the end I to wanna see this guy in a Twins uniform hoping for a 250-.275 hitter with a ton of power hitting in front of Buxton .

But I still have to stop and think, A real Ace for 5 years .....

#25 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:49 PM

Price for Sano is a no to me automatically, 2 years left , but I would have to think about Hamel, 5 years left on contract , along with about 105 million, for a guy in AA who struggled and is now hurt....Makes me think a little, In the end I to wanna see this guy in a Twins uniform hoping for a 250-.275 hitter with a ton of power hitting in front of Buxton .

But I still have to stop and think, A real Ace for 5 years .....


Sano didn't struggle in AA. He posted a .915 OPS as a 20 year old. That's domination, just not at the level he posted earlier in the minors. Again, he's 20 years old.

What good is an ace to a 66 win team, a team whose pythag record was a miserable 61 games? The Twins need a 30 game swing just to reach the playoffs.

What the Twins need are good players and lots of 'em. Garza and Sano are worth more wins per season than Cole Hamels, not to mention that you can get Garza for ~$40m less than what is owed Hamels. $40m goes a long way toward picking up another above average player like Drew.

It's an illogical move no matter how you look at it. If the Twins were an 85 win team and needed an ace, that's a move you consider. But right now they need wins, more wins, and then a couple more wins to even touch the playoffs. And for that, you need above average players at multiple positions, not one very good player at a single position.

Some people are looking at this completely in reverse, starstruck by the notion of an "ace pitcher" without really thinking about it. The Twins need a bunch of pretty good players, not a single really good player. Only when they have a handful of 2-4 WAR players will they even be competitive. One 5 WAR player isn't going to help them any more than Joe Mauer has helped them the past three years.

Teams reach the playoffs by having a handful of Michael Cuddyers on the roster, not by having a single Zack Greinke.

#26 VandyTwinsFan

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:53 PM

Hamels for 5 years and Plouffe at 3B frustrating me to no end....
or
Sano launching bombs and no 1-2 starter (other than possibly Meyer).
Shoot. That's a tough one.

#27 johnnydakota

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:53 PM

There was an article either here or in fangraph or another site that showed , Pedro raked on the bottom 3rd or the pitchers in AA and really struggled against the top 3rd.

#28 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:55 PM

There was an article either here or in fangraph or another site that showed , Pedro raked on the bottom 3rd or the pitchers in AA and really struggled against the top 3rd.


Pedro? I'll assume that's an auto-correct thing and move on.

Again, Sano is 20 years old at AA. It's not the least bit surprising that he struggled a bit in AA, if you can call an OPS over .900 struggling at all.

And of course he didn't hit as well against the best pitching. You can say that about Miguel Cabrera.

Again. 20 years old.

#29 johnnydakota

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 02:58 PM

Pedro?


Me bad, but Me thinks you need to read mine a little better as well, I said in the end , I want to see Sano hitting in front of Buxton, but you always have to stop and think about having an Ace locked up for 5 years, as for Garza, he aint no Ace , a good #3 is about his ceiling, he is no where near Hamel

#30 johnnydakota

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Posted 12 December 2013 - 03:03 PM

Sano didn't struggle in AA. He posted a .915 OPS as a 20 year old. That's domination, just not at the level he posted earlier in the minors. Again, he's 20 years old.

What good is an ace to a 66 win team, a team whose pythag record was a miserable 61 games? The Twins need a 30 game swing just to reach the playoffs.

What the Twins need are good players and lots of 'em. Garza and Sano are worth more wins per season than Cole Hamels, not to mention that you can get Garza for ~$40m less than what is owed Hamels. $40m goes a long way toward picking up another above average player like Drew.

It's an illogical move no matter how you look at it. If the Twins were an 85 win team and needed an ace, that's a move you consider. But right now they need wins, more wins, and then a couple more wins to even touch the playoffs. And for that, you need above average players at multiple positions, not one very good player at a single position.

Some people are looking at this completely in reverse, starstruck by the notion of an "ace pitcher" without really thinking about it. The Twins need a bunch of pretty good players, not a single really good player. Only when they have a handful of 2-4 WAR players will they even be competitive. One 5 WAR player isn't going to help them any more than Joe Mauer has helped them the past three years.

Teams reach the playoffs by having a handful of Michael Cuddyers on the roster, not by having a single Zack Greinke.


What good is having a 40 homer run guy on a team that loses 66 games and is surrounded by florimons and Herrmanns? you can make the same arguement brock , wheres the logic in that?