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What Happened to the Twins? by Elliot Mann

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#21 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:32 PM

And yet, Ryan gets little blame for the last three years, because of Smith. Odd, that.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#22 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:32 PM

He tried to replace 60% of his rotation, and made it worse, and yet, everyone can't stop praising him.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#23 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:35 PM

And yet, Ryan gets little blame for the last three years, because of Smith. Odd, that.


You'll be hard pressed to find anybody around here who actually liked last offseason's free agency pickups so no, he didn't get a pass.

Ryan inherited an awful team. Not just bad, awful. I'm the first to say that he didn't do enough to improve that team via free agency during his first two years... But he's done a bang-up job in almost every other avenue of player acquisition. On a rebuilding team, I'll take the guy who sucks at signing free agents and rocks the draft and trades than a guy who does the inverse.

#24 Thrylos

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:38 PM

I have no idea... And neither do you.

Smith's name was on the plaque. For good or bad, he's the guy who gets the accolades and blame for bad decisions.


And Ryan gets rewarded for 2012 with the removal of the "interim" title and gets zero blame for 2013.

Guess when "Terry Ryan" is on the plaque, the plaque is made from Teflon.
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#25 TheLeviathan

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:38 PM

A minor quibble but the value of what we gave up for in Santana should only be one season - after that he was a free agent and those years weren't traded.


Combined with the unfair portrayal of Hardy-Gomez and it takes some of the teeth out of this. Also when you factor in Ryan's decisions that backed us into a corner on Hunter and Santana.

#26 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:39 PM

Honest but dumb question for all the war mongers but I'm not afraid to ask it. The author writes:

"[FONT=Arial]How bad were the trades made by the Twins from 2007 to 2011? In all of the major trades combined, the Twins received 9.3 wins above replacement level. They gave away 50.4 wins. In Smith's four years, then, the Twins traded away 10.275 wins per year."[/FONT]

Does this mean that, on autopilot, the Twins record over 2008-2010 would or should have been:

2008: 98-74
2009: 96-66
2010: 104-58

#27 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:41 PM

And Ryan gets rewarded for 2012 with the removal of the "interim" title and gets zero blame for 2013.

Guess when "Terry Ryan" is on the plaque, the plaque is made from Teflon.


Yeah, it's a real shame he didn't turn around a 63 win team in 12 months.

Theo Epstein would have... Oh, wait.

Sigh.

Ryan has not done everything right since he came back. He was too tentative with free agents, he didn't fully punt on 2012/2013 like he should have... But he's also turned around this farm system. He's made some good trades. His drafts have gone off like gangbusters. He's now spending money on free agency. This team is on the cusp of returning to respectability.

#28 Thrylos

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:43 PM

Ryan inherited an awful team. Not just bad, awful.


And Ryan inherited a team 2 years away from a world championship and a year away from a 90 win season, managed to trade its core away and end up with a perennial 90 loss team. Or do we want to forget that?
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#29 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:44 PM

And Ryan inherited a team 2 years away from a world championship and a year away from a 90 win season, managed to trade its core away and end up with a perennial 90 loss team. Or do we want to forget that?


So now we're holding Ryan's 1994 season against him? Sorry, but that's way too far back for me to care.

#30 birdwatcher

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:48 PM

The Pohlad boys is what happened to the Twins. They only want to make more money and don't care to put a decent product on the field.


Is this sarcasm?

#31 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:53 PM

Honest but dumb question for all the war mongers but I'm not afraid to ask it. The author writes:

"[FONT=Arial]How bad were the trades made by the Twins from 2007 to 2011? In all of the major trades combined, the Twins received 9.3 wins above replacement level. They gave away 50.4 wins. In Smith's four years, then, the Twins traded away 10.275 wins per year."[/FONT]

Does this mean that, on autopilot, the Twins record over 2008-2010 would or should have been:

2008: 98-74
2009: 96-66
2010: 104-58


Only if you somehow sign Santana to an extension. Only if you somehow don't acquire Gomez in the first place to trade for Hardy. No, no it does not. The analysis is lacking some precision, imo (and others have pointed out similar things).

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#32 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:56 PM

The article was sloppy but its general premise is accurate:

Bill Smith was horrible at negotiating trades.

Personally, I don't think he did a terrible job in the draft and international markets. He got a raw deal a couple of time with injuries, for sure... But his handling of the MLB roster in trades was atrocious, excepting the Hardy/Gomez trade, which he later negated by that awful Hoey trade.

#33 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 03:00 PM

Sure sould be nice to have hardy....sure hard to judge Smith on that, given what we have heard about Gardy's desires. But, we have no idea how those decisions were made.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#34 birdwatcher

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 03:05 PM

Whom ever is on top gets the blame rightfully so or not. Bill Smith didn't do a good job but so didn't a lot of other people. To drop off as fast as we did there had to be a perfect storm of screw ups. Drafting, trading, resigning, and player development.


This.

And not just screw ups. Other circumstances beyong the control of the GM enter into these types of cyclical downturns.

OK, I'll say it again: when an organization has five dozen people working on scouting, drafting, and developing talent, how much credit or blame do you want to heap onto the GM, just because the plaque was on his desk? Stop this nonsense please. Don't try to tell me that Sano would not possibly be a Twin were it not for Smith, because that's not a true statement.

Trades and signings are another story. Smith's track record in this regard is awful. Ryan's while understandably blemished by the inevitable occasional failure, is impressive. THAT is why Ryan gets praised by his knowledgable peers.

#35 johnnydakota

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 03:07 PM

I have no idea... And neither do you.

Smith's name was on the plaque. For good or bad, he's the guy who gets the accolades and blame for bad decisions.


Terry Ryan, who has spent more than 24 years in the Twins organization as a minor league player or executive, has been named Senior Advisor to the General Manager. In Ryan's new role, he will assist the General Manager on all player evaluation matters including the major leagues, minor leagues and international operations.So while we dont know where he was, we know where he was suppose to be

#36 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 03:09 PM

Terry Ryan, who has spent more than 24 years in the Twins organization as a minor league player or executive, has been named Senior Advisor to the General Manager. In Ryan's new role, he will assist the General Manager on all player evaluation matters including the major leagues, minor leagues and international operations.So while we dont know where he was, we know where he was suppose to be


That doesn't mean he was involved in MLB transactions. From the information we do have regarding Ryan's semi-retirement, he was working on scouting and MiLB.

Which has absolutely nothing to do with most of Smith's failures in trading MLB players.

Again, I don't know and neither do you.

#37 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 03:17 PM

This.

And not just screw ups. Other circumstances beyong the control of the GM enter into these types of cyclical downturns.

OK, I'll say it again: when an organization has five dozen people working on scouting, drafting, and developing talent, how much credit or blame do you want to heap onto the GM, just because the plaque was on his desk? Stop this nonsense please. Don't try to tell me that Sano would not possibly be a Twin were it not for Smith, because that's not a true statement.

Trades and signings are another story. Smith's track record in this regard is awful. Ryan's while understandably blemished by the inevitable occasional failure, is impressive. THAT is why Ryan gets praised by his knowledgable peers.


Like last year, when he traded for Worely, signed KC and Pelfrey, and made the rotation worse relative to the league?

I do agree, the GM gets way too much credit/blame for the draft, other than he hires the scouting director, and probably has say (at least) in the makeup and approach of the minor league development staff. But I do agree, the easiest way to judge a GM is on FA signings and on trades......what is Ryan's record in FA signings, in your opionon? Not just this year, but over his career?

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#38 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 03:23 PM

What is Ryan's record in FA signings, in your opionon? Not just this year, but over his career?


I'll chime in:

1994-2000: Eh, don't really remember, to be honest. I remember a few highs and lows but won't really commit to a decision.

2001-2007: Bad, but hamstrung by payroll considerations. He picked up a couple of good players like Rogers but mostly, it was retreads that made me want to drink. A lot.

2011-2012: Ugh. Just ugh. Willingham was nice. Should have done so much more and it burnses us just to think about it, it does.

2013: So far, so good. Not a single complaint.

#39 johnnydakota

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 03:23 PM

That doesn't mean he was involved in MLB transactions. From the information we do have regarding Ryan's semi-retirement, he was working on scouting and MiLB.

Which has absolutely nothing to do with most of Smith's failures in trading MLB players.

Again, I don't know and neither do you.


I guess we will have to agree to disagree, we are here now with Terry so I for 1 am hoping he does good this year,But our Mission statment this year should be to get to 70s in wins, and to add to the future , wether or not that is trading for kids, or signing and trading for quality players who will have trade value .As there really are not that many guys avalible who will be contributing to this team in 2015-2017 when we hopefully make a run at a title

#40 Winston Smith

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 03:31 PM

[quote name='Brock Beauchamp']The article was sloppy but its general premise is accurate:

Bill Smith was horrible at negotiating trades.

I don't know that he was the one doing the negotiating and neither do you!

If you don't know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else.

 

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