Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
The same great Twins Daily coverage, now for the Vikings.

The Store


Photo

I think thes numbers are realistic, and they should make a trade....

  • Please log in to reply
67 replies to this topic

#1 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,020 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 10:23 AM

Bear with me, this is a bit long…..

Given that 10 runs equals a win, and given actual results last year, here is how I think the Twins can get close to the playoffs in 2014.


  • Last year, Diamond and Hendriks made a combined 32 starts. In those, they had 9 quality starts, and gave up a combined 127 runs. In those 32 starts, the Twins won 11 games. Nolasco had 18 quality starts, and gave up 90 runs. By runs allowed, you are looking at 3-4 wins, by assuming they win half the QS difference, that is 4-5 wins, by looking at the fact the Twins only won 11 of the games, if you assume they are .500 in his starts, they win 5 more games. Nolasco replacing those two gives them 3-5 more wins.
  • Last year, Mauer played a lot less games than he will this coming year. The projections on Fangraphs are very conservative, IMO. But, going by those, there are 1-2 more wins from his offense. Assuming Pinto is about equal to the 1B they sent out last year, that is only 1-2 more wins. I think that is VERY conservative, but whatever.
  • Willingham’s numbers last year were really quite bad. Fangraphs projects him at 2 wins better than last year. I’d put him at DH, and put a good OFer out there for defense and actually, Pressley would be no worse than the DH’s last year (unreal). 2 more wins from Willingham.

From just those three, you are looking at 7 wins being conservative, imo. On the positive side, you are looking at 11 more wins. I’ll split the delta and go 9 more wins. They now have only 87 losses.

Phil Hughes…..pretty much gave up the same number of runs as Mike Plefrey last year. I’m going to call that a draw, in a conservative move.
Oswaldo Arcia….wow, Fangraphs is high on him. They are projecting him to be 2-4 more wins than he was last year. Let’s go with 2.

They now have 85 losses.

3B….Plouffe is projected by Fangraphs to be 1-1.5 wins better. Assuming Sano comes up half way through the year, 3B should be 2 wins better than last year.

They now have 83 losses.

CF….wow, Hicks was bad last year. Offense AND defense was bad. Fangraphs had him negative for defense. Baseball prospectus did not, but I don’t have all their stats. If Presley starts there, and is as “good” as last year (his worst in the majors), he is worth 1-2 more wins than Hicks was last year. If Hicks starts, and is just the 27th worst CF, instead of the 38th worst, he is worth 2 more wins. Let’s go 2 wins here.

They now are a .500 team. I don’t think any of that is unrealistic. Some of it is quite conservative.

We have not even discussed replacing the 32 starts made by Hernandez, Worley, and Albers (8 quality starts, 120 runs given up between them). If those are replaced by a guy(s) equivalent to Plefrey, that is 2-3 wins more right there. The Twins LFers had a net negative .7 WAR last year. If Mastrioni or Presley are worth zero, that is worth 1 win. Seems realistic, and is conservative by Fangraphs estimates.

So, 3-4 more wins right there. That puts the Twins at 83-85 wins, w/o any real additions from what they have already done (this is why I wanted Ellsbury, put him in CF, and you are looking at around 7 more wins than the negative wins they got last year, but that is not happening now).

So, how do you add more wins at this point?

Catcher, LF, CF, SP…….

KC….let’s assume he’s the same pitcher. So, we’ve accounted for KC’s starts, Hughes (replacing Pelfrey), Nolasco (replacing Diamond/Hendriks), Deduno (replacing Hernandez, Worley, Albers), that leaves one starter to cover what Gibson/Deduno/Walters, et. al. produced.

Let’s make a big trade…..for either Hamels or Lee. Let’s trade Gibson and Berrios and a random 10-20 prospect. Hamels or Lee have accumulated between 3.5 and 7 wins a year for the last few years. Fangraphs projects them for around 4 WAR next year. The guys they are replacing produced negative WAR last year. Let’s count this as 4 wins.

Twins now have 87-89 wins, and I’d say that is conservative.

Why not do this? Why not try to win while Mauer is good? Oh, and when Buxton comes up in 2015, and Sano is here for a full year, and Rosario is your starting LF? Those three are worth more than any of the options listed for 2014, even as rookies.

When you point out that teams can’t go from 96 losses to being good, ask yourself what happened in 91, or last year with the Red Sox…….
Lighten up Francis....

#2 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,719 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 10:26 AM

I agree that the Twins are going to improve this season and with another pickup, could even touch a .500 season.

But one thing you're ignoring is that the 2013 Twins' pythagorean record suggested they were a 61 win team. Basically, they "lucked" their way to a 66 win season. I'd use those 61 wins as your baseline, as you can't repeat luck.

#3 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,020 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 10:29 AM

I didn't even touch on Dozier being good all year, I only have Sano up half a year, my assumptions around Hughes are pretty conservative, my assumptions on Mauer are conservative, my assumptions on LF/CF are that the players are worth 1 WAR cumulative (which is better than last year)....I think I've accounted for the luck, but maybe not.
Lighten up Francis....

#4 twinscowboysbulls

twinscowboysbulls

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 446 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 10:34 AM

Sadly, our offense just wasn't good last year.

The only thing we have done to improve that is move Mauer to a position where he can play 160 games. This helps, but does't help enough.

Need rebounds from Willingham, Hicks, Doumit.
Need arrivals of Sano and Buxton.
Need Pinto to repeat success to a lesser degree obviously.
Need Dozier to prove he can be the 2nd half hitter he was.

Not A TON to ask, but still not easy to get all of those things to happen.

#5 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,020 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 10:41 AM

Willingham doesn't even need to be as good as he was two years ago, he just has to be an ok DH. Hicks has to not be the worst CF in baseball, just bad.

They don't need Buxton at all, looking at the numbers realistically. It would be great, but not needed.

If Brock is right, and they are a .500 team, imagine adding Hamels or Lee to the rotation....oh, and maybe Meyer coming up and being better than KC or Deduno, or Hughes being better than Pelfrey.....all of that is possible/realistic.

Really, if the OF could be replacement level in LF and CF, and Sano comes up halfway, and mauer plays 40 more games, and Dozier is the same as last year, they are at least 5 games better, probably closer to 9. Add in the 10+ wins more from the pitching, w/o additions, and this team is .500.
Lighten up Francis....

#6 twinscowboysbulls

twinscowboysbulls

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 446 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 10:47 AM

Just think though, if all those things happened and they added a SP like Arroyo for 2 years, would've gotten Salty to C/DH and a spark plug guy like Rajai Davis to be the platoon/4th OF. Could've been neat. If if's and buts were candy and nuts what a Merry Christmas we would all have.

Random thought: How sad is it to think about Carlos Gomez/JJ Hardy? We would've looked so smart in the Santana trade if we would've just kept one or the other. Can anyone imagine an outfield of Gomez/Buxton/Hicks/Arcia? (Hicks in RF against LHP & 4th OF vs RHP.) If ifs and butts were candy and nuts what a Merry Christmas we would all have.

#7 johnnydakota

johnnydakota

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 1,498 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 10:49 AM

Well after 5 years of bad Luck , it sure would be nice to catch a break and find some good mojo
Me thinks 3 of Ham , Hicks Plouffe and Parmelee will produce close to what we expected,or hoped for last year....if not? Well once again we will discussing in mid june who we are going to trade, and for whom and what pick we will have in the 2015 draft

#8 cmb0252

cmb0252

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,763 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 10:54 AM

The Philly's are currently in the market for pitching so I doubt they trade either of those pitchers. If they do they will want a heck of a lot more than that if you take into account their demands for Lee at the trade deadline last year. Only 4+ WAR pitcher on the market is Price and he will cost either Sano or Buxton.

#9 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,020 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 10:58 AM

The Phillies have told teams they are willing to trade both of them.....
Lighten up Francis....

#10 Rosterman

Rosterman

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 986 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 10:58 AM

The Twins now have a weakness at catcher.

They have strength at first base, but now power. Willingham has to produce as does Plouffe. But then we look at DH. Doumit is weak. He is the backup catcher. We would be better served with Willingham (or, beyond now, Morneau). The Twins need a bonafide power bat to replace lost power at first base, even if you switch Willingham to DHG, then you need that extra bat in the outfield.

Rookies. It is dangerous going into the season with Pinto as the starting catcher. Arcia is still an unproven commodity in right, but seems to give us more hope than Parmelee. Yet we need Parmelee as that 4th outfielder who can also play 1st. Mastro or Presley should be able to hold the fort until Hicks gets his act together. But fielding a lineup with three, basic rookies: Pinto, Arcia, Hicks, doesn't necessarily bode well.

The Twins seem to lack speed.

The Twins still will strikeout waaaaay too much.

A third free agent signing, especially if it was big (Arroyo, Garza) rather than small (Pelfrey) or suspected (Santana) WILL produce more wins. It will give Gibsn more time to develop. It will give Meyer time to develop. The Twins just have to make a decision on Worley, Diamond and Deduno. In some ways, I would trade Deduno to anyone interested and settle for seeing if Worley can produce more worth in the shortterm, and put Diamond in the pen.

The pen. Duensing and Swarzak and Burton and Fein are all tradable. Look to the Rockies. Is there anyone there that we want? That opens up spots in the pen for Diamond. We still have Tonkin in the mix, then. If nothing else, Worley becomes long relief and we hope he becomes Swarzak Jr.

There are still lots of holes in the offense. The new pitchers can win more games, if the bats keep us in the game. If the bats shut down (more strikeouts, not advancing runners, not going long, not staying out of double-plays), then we have a lot of 7-15 starters who we know can pitch to a 4.25 ERA.
Joel Thingvall
www.thingvall.com
rosterman at www.twinscards.com

#11 Camdog5555

Camdog5555

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 3 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 11:11 AM

Although I agree that most of what was said here is pretty conservative you are assuming that essentially the entire team spends no significant time on the DL. That just doesn't happen to major league teams. You are looking at the absolute best case scenario.

The best part about the signing of Nolasco and Hughes is that instead of Scott Diamond getting hurt and forcing Cole DeVries into the rotation, now Nolasco can get hurt and Diamond can get into the rotation so at least we have serviceable spot starters. What is the point of giving up our great prospects to just barely miss the playoffs?

#12 thetank

thetank

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 204 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 11:13 AM

The offense lost 17 HRs and 74 RBIs when Morneau left. Sano and Buxton are going to take some time getting here. Team needs to score 100 more runs and give up a 80 less to be around .500.

#13 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,020 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 11:16 AM

What is the point of keeping prospects, and never playing for hte present (only to have those prospects not be that good)?

Which great prospect did I suggest trading? Gibson? He's on the same timefram as Hamels and Lee in terms of his value to the team. Berrios? He's a good prospect.

Actually, I didn't really make an assumption about the DL.....other than Nolasco making 30 starts.....since I have Hughes being Pelfry, and the combination of starters replacing the 3-5th worst startes only being as good as Pelfrey....I expect that to be a combo of Gibson and Meyer and Diamond and Worly....and if someone is hurt midway, I expect Meyer to be ready, and to be better than a 5.2-6 ERA.
Lighten up Francis....

#14 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 4,616 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 11:19 AM

teams that are rebuilding don't trade away prospects for the present. Too many holes to fill and not nearly enough prospects to fill them. I'd make a buy low trade (like Brett Anderson) or something like that, but no way I'm trading something nice to solidify a position when there's help on the way and the gain likely won't be worth the price.

#15 Camdog5555

Camdog5555

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 3 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 11:21 AM

Look at the Pirates from 2 years ago. They made no moves at the trade deadline other than Derrek Lee because they knew they wouldn't do anything in the playoffs so it was pointless to trade prospects.

You are assuming that Mauer plays 160 games at first base, Willingham not spending time on the DL, which I don't see happening. Pitchers usually get hurt more often you are right, but the offense has to be healthy to put some runs on the board.

#16 cmb0252

cmb0252

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,763 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 11:29 AM

The Phillies have told teams they are willing to trade both of them.....


While they say they are willing to trade either their asking price, to me, sounds like they won't. ESPN's Jayson Spark tweeted:

[COLOR=#333333][FONT=Verdana]"That the only way the Phillies would move Hamels or Lee would be in a "win-win" situation in which they receivea huge return and shed the entirety of the remaining salary. In other words, a trade is unlikely."

If we were serious about trying to get either we would have to eat the full salary and give up a lot more than Gibson/Berrios. [/FONT][/COLOR]

#17 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,020 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 11:29 AM

Actually, I assumed 150 games at 1B for Mauer, not 160.

They can be like the pirates, the delta is the Twins' best player is 30, not in his early twenties.....the Twins also have Buxton and Sano coming up this year/next year....why not surround them with elite pitching when you have the chance?
Lighten up Francis....

#18 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 5,015 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 11:36 AM

I appreciate the optimism, but we said a lot of the same things before 2013 too. You know, like "the pitching can't possibly be this bad again" but we were.

We are definitely improved, how much so is just really hard to say at this point.

#19 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,719 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 11:41 AM

To me, it's because you don't know what you're going to need and there are a lot of question marks on this roster.

1. What happens if Meyer comes up and dominates but Dozier and Arcia fall on their face? At that point, you don't need a pitcher but probably gave up some quality prospects to get one. Sure, you might be able to flip that pitcher... But you might not.

2. Sano and Buxton cannot be expected to be Mike Trout in their rookie season. Most players take time to adjust to the Majors. Let the players show you who they are before you make a push to reach the playoffs by signing guys who might not be a great fit in 1-2 years.

3. Haven't we learned how not to rush things from Dayton Moore? For the billionth time, this doesn't have to happen overnight.

That doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't sign players or that they shouldn't make an attempt to win more games. But hedging your future to make a run at 2014 is foolish. This is a 66 win team whose pythag record suggests they were even worse than that. Sure, the Twins might make a surprise push at the playoffs if the stars align... You can always make a mid-season move to compesnsate for such a thing but trading cheap, good talent like Gibson for injury-riddled or short-term vets is a good way to hamstring your 2016-2018 teams.

I just can't wrap my head around why so many people are in such a damned hurry. Yeah, I want to see the Twins win again... But I want to see them win for a long time when they get back on track. They've made big moves toward that goal this offseason. I'm not against moving further in that direction by signing a guy like Arroyo, especially if you can get him for two years. But I have zero interest in trading away good, cheap prospects for a few wins in 2014 and maybe 2015. If this was an 85 win team right now, yeah, that makes sense. But not a 61 win pythagorean team. That's just absurd.

#20 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,870 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 11:48 AM

I'm never quite comfortable with cherry-picking projections like this. Even though you say you are being "conservative", are you projecting anyone to be worse in 2014 than they were in 2013? I see a lot of improvement projected, and some holding the line by already solid performers -- but how realistic is that?

I assume you are using the Steamer projections at Fangraphs? If so, I just totaled them for the 2014 Twins, and it comes to 28 WAR, or roughly 76 team wins. That's just the 40-man roster, so no Meyer or Sano, but they are otherwise projecting some fair optimism.

That seems much more likely than your 83-85 preliminary estimate, which might be the "best case" outcome IMHO.

#21 Twins Twerp

Twins Twerp

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 791 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 11:49 AM

If only baseball were played on paper...you might have a point. Too bad it isn't. Getting two (or maybe 3) better pitchers will add wins but the offense is still terrible. I think we under-rate the move for Nolasco and underrate how important KC is to this rotation. Having a fresh bullpen is a big deal and having someone "eat innings" has more value than our +/- WAR/WARP Drive computer calculator outputs (thank you Millennium Falcon)

#22 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,870 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 12:00 PM

To be fair, I don't think it's "rushing" anything to get Lee or Hamels for pennies on the dollar. That's just not a likely outcome. :)

#23 drivlikejehu

drivlikejehu

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 525 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 12:12 PM

The Twins aren't a contender in 2014, end of story.

#24 Winston Smith

Winston Smith

    Old Geezer

  • Members
  • 1,369 posts
  • LocationOceania

Posted 10 December 2013 - 12:27 PM

The team has added Nolasco and Hughes (not sure what we'll get with him) and lost Morneau and some how this team will win around 20 more games this year?
Mike what are you smoking?

May all our prospects be All Stars and the beer be free.


#25 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,719 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 12:29 PM

The team has added Nolasco and Hughes (not sure what we'll get with him) and lost Morneau and some how this team will win around 20 more games this year?
Mike what are you smoking?


Given Morneau's 2013 campaign, I'm not really sure that's a loss. He wasn't awful but he wasn't good, either.

#26 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 6,020 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 12:51 PM

Well, if you look at the numbers....it does possibly work. You get Mauer for 40 more games, and you get a healthy Willingham, and you get not negative WAR from LF and CF, and Arcia is 2 games better.....that's 8 wins right there. You get two legit pitchers instead of 60+ starts from AAAA filler, that's 8 wins right there. Now all you need is some luck with Dozier and Pinto, and Sano up and average for a 3B.

Brock, Mauer is 30.....you may as well trade him if you aren't going to try to win this year or next. I don't get why people don't want them to try to win.

And, I didn't say it would happen, I said it could happen.

The arguments against boil down to:

It won't happen (this isn't an argument at all)
It can't happen (it happened last year)
Why try to make it happen
We will know more about the future after this year (after Willingham (gone?) and Mauer are a year older, and next year's FA market looks like the worst ever)

It's funny, if I write a negative comment, I get all kinds of logical reasons why I am wrong. If I write a positive one, all I get are statements, and very few if any actual logical arguments.

I do agree, it is optimistic, but I disagree that it can't happen.
Lighten up Francis....

#27 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,719 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 01:00 PM

Brock, Mauer is 30.....you may as well trade him if you aren't going to try to win this year or next. I don't get why people don't want them to try to win.


Unless you bump the payroll to $150m right now, Mauer will not be the cornerstone of the next "great" Twins team.

And that's okay. Mauer is the type of hitter who *should* age gracefully if he can stay on the field. His salary will be offset by (hopefully) a core of very good players making under a million dollars a year.

If Mauer was 34 right now, I might feel more of a need to push the timetable... But he's only 30 and the Twins don't need the MVP version of Mauer on the field. They simply need him to be "pretty good" while Sano and Buxton become the stars of the team.

#28 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Yes

  • Members
  • 4,278 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 01:13 PM

Well, if you look at the numbers....it does possibly work. .


Agreed. And also to add to that argument is that more than half of the Twins' losses were decided by 2 runs or less and that they lost close to 80% of the games that were either decided by 2 runs or less or went to extras.

Also, at the moment, Cleveland and Detroit got weaker and KC and Chicago stayed the same. This is also important because opponent strength will be important. But we can talk about that in March

That said, I find adding WARs pretty inaccurate. Regardless, I think that the Twins can compete in 2014

(and if they don't, fire Ryan and Gardy ;) )
-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#29 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,719 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 01:15 PM

Also, at the moment, Cleveland and Detroit got weaker and KC and Chicago stayed the same. This is also important because opponent strength will be important.


I'd say that Kansas City, without some of their young guys making real progress in 2014, actually took a step backward. It's going to be hard to replace Santana's 2013 campaign.

#30 DAM DC Twins Fans

DAM DC Twins Fans

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 486 posts

Posted 10 December 2013 - 02:25 PM

Also, at the moment, Cleveland and Detroit got weaker and KC and Chicago stayed the same. This is also important because opponent strength will be important. But we can talk about that in March


I think Detroit has gotten stronger this off-season. I love the Prince/Kinsler trade and moving Miggy back to first.

Realistically, with a below average defense (arguably worst defense in AL) and counting on Pinto, Sano (half year) and (maybe) Hicks--81 wins would be a marvelous year next year.