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Arroyo, Does he help or hurt?

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#1 twinscowboysbulls

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 10:07 AM

The guy has a great track record for "toeing the rubber every 5 days" as Kevin Millar stated. He is very likely going to give us 200 IP around 4.00 ERA this summer if we were to sign him. Hopefully his homerun issues aren't a problem at TF if we do grab him.

The biggest question is will he be helping or hurting us in 2016, since he is wanting a 3 year deal.

I truly believe he is going to be hindering us by that time. I know, I know, everyone always says we can just trade away guys to make room for these prospects coming up, but it's not that easy when it's 10 million dollars for an old pitcher.

Someone laid this out a while back in a thread about our likely rotation locks year-to-year. If we sign another free agent pitcher to a multi-year contract this off-season, it has to be a pitcher who has upside and actually strikes guys out. Otherwise, this 3rd FA pitcher is going to be blocking one of these guys in the rotation in 2016: Gibson/Meyer/May/Berrios/Stewart/ who knows who else could emerge?

If Arroyo would do a 2 year deal, I think I could live with that. Anymore than that, you stunt the growth of this team. I'd offer him 2 years 24 million and leave it at that.
2014: 1 spot to battle for after Nolasco/Hughes/Correia/Arroyo
2015: 2 spots to battle for after Nolasco/Hughes/Arroyo
2016: 3 spots to battle for after Nolasco/Hughes
2017: 4 spots to battel for after Nolasco.

Hopefully Gibson, Meyer, May/Berrios are up to the challenge to grab those spots in the coming years. Then of course Stewart by 2017.

#2 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 10:18 AM

I'm not advocating an Arroyo signing (I'm pretty neutral on it, really) but no way does he hurt the team on a two year deal and he won't do much damage on a three year deal.

After 2014, he takes Correia's spot. At that point, we have Gibson and Mystery Player X following Nolasco, Hughes, and Arroyo. Given that Meyer is the only guy who will be beating down the door from the farm during that time, we only have to worry about Deduno, Worley, and Diamond as possible contenders for a rotation spot.

And really, that's not a problem. A trade can be made should the rotation become too filled with lower-tier starters.

#3 twinscowboysbulls

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 10:29 AM

I agree 2 year deal would be beneficial.

The trade thing sounds easy, but when you are paying 10-12 million per year, not that many teams want to take that money when the quality they are receiving isn't that great along with it.

#4 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 10:32 AM

I agree 2 year deal would be beneficial.

The trade thing sounds easy, but when you are paying 10-12 million per year, not that many teams want to take that money when the quality they are receiving isn't that great along with it.


I was more suggesting that the Twins could move Diamond, Worley, or Deduno.

#5 nicksaviking

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 01:10 PM

) but no way does he hurt the team on a two year deal and he won't do much damage on a three year deal.


A two year deal wouldn't do much damage internally, but next year's free agent pitching class looks a lot better than this year's, even if a bunch of them get extensions. I think I'd prefer a guy on a one year deal this year just so there's room to add a free agent better than Arroyo next year.

There's no need to blow their 2015 free agent budget right now, unless they really think they can knock off the Tigers in 2014.

#6 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 01:14 PM

A two year deal wouldn't do much damage internally, but next year's free agent pitching class looks a lot better than this year's, even if a bunch of them get extensions. I think I'd prefer a guy on a one year deal this year just so there's room to add a free agent better than Arroyo next year.

There's no need to blow their 2015 free agent budget right now, unless they really think they can knock off the Tigers in 2014.


A fair point. One thing about "next year's FA crop", though... It always looks better this time of year. A large chunk of those guys, particularly the appealing ones, will be extended before this time next year.

But overall, I'm okay if the Twins roll with what they have already, really. Like I said, I'm pretty neutral on Arroyo.

#7 JB_Iowa

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 01:25 PM

A fair point. One thing about "next year's FA crop", though... It always looks better this time of year. A large chunk of those guys, particularly the appealing ones, will be extended before this time next year.


DING***DING***DING****DING***DING

I feel like we hear the same thing every year: "Next year's crop of free agent pitchers will be better." Then when we get near that time frame, it's always "Free agent pitching is really thin this year".

I'm not saying that they should or shouldn't sign Arroyo (I don't like the idea of the 3rd year at all) ... but I don't think they should make the decision based on who might be available next offseason.

#8 mike wants wins

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 01:39 PM

From what I've read, next year's FA crops looks like one of the worst ever. Looking now.....

no catcher under 31
two 1B under 35
no 2B under 30, only two under 33
probably 1-2 good SS
not much at 3B
no OF as good as the two big names this year
the SP could be interesting, but I see most of those guys being locked up or outrageous in cost

I see no reason not to sign another guy (or trade for one) right now, as long as Sano/Buxton are not given up.
Lighten up Francis....

#9 johnnydakota

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 01:58 PM

A two year deal wouldn't do much damage internally, but next year's free agent pitching class looks a lot better than this year's, even if a bunch of them get extensions. I think I'd prefer a guy on a one year deal this year just so there's room to add a free agent better than Arroyo next year.

There's no need to blow their 2015 free agent budget right now, unless they really think they can knock off the Tigers in 2014.


You do realise we are currently under 2013s opening day payroll?
If we go by owner Jim Pohlads word, of 50-52% then we have some where between 47.5 -55 million more in salary we could add

#10 nicksaviking

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 03:06 PM

You do realise we are currently under 2013s opening day payroll?
If we go by owner Jim Pohlads word, of 50-52% then we have some where between 47.5 -55 million more in salary we could add


Payroll would only be part of the issue though. The Twins would have Nolasco, Hughes and Arroyo locked into spots barring injury and Meyer, Gibson and May ready to roll. They could be busts, but surely that won't be decided by 2015; aside from injury, I find it hard to believe two of those three young arms won't be given every chance to keep a rotation spot. There just wouldn't be a clear open spot should there be a superior free agent pitcher available next year.

Many of these guys will get extensions, some will pitch themselves out of the Twins price range, but there are plenty of names interesting enough for me to want to be flexible with at least one 2015 rotation spot:

Brett Anderson (27) - $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Homer Bailey (29)
Josh Beckett (35)
Chad Billingsley (30) - $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout
Johnny Cueto (29) - $10MM club option with an $800K buyout
Jorge De La Rosa (34)
Ryan Dempster (38)
Yovani Gallardo (29) - $13MM club option with a $600K buyout
Dan Haren (34)
Hisashi Iwakuma (34) - $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Josh Johnson (31)
Clayton Kershaw (27)
Jon Lester (31)
Justin Masterson (30)
Brandon Morrow (30) - $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Jeff Niemann (32)
Jake Peavy (34)
Max Scherzer (30)
James Shields (33)

Edited by nicksaviking, 10 December 2013 - 03:10 PM.


#11 Gene Larkin Fan Club

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 03:11 PM

In addition to loving the Twins, I'm also a lifelong Reds fan. I've slowly come around to appreciate Arroyo. I used to be down on him because he has no velocity and his leg kick and occasional corn-rows seem like attention seeking novelties. But he's been extremely consistent and reliable through the years and it's not like we have to worry about him losing (more) zip on his fastball. Two years would be great, I fine with three.

#12 Thrylos

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 03:31 PM

I would have no issue with signing Arroyo as a number 3. Now that Hughes has this role, Arroyo is redundant. With Nolasco a number 2, Correia a number 4 and a bunch of people fighting for number 5, the Twins need a number 1. Push Nolasco up to that spot and you got problems.
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#13 TKGuy

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Posted 10 December 2013 - 05:19 PM

I agree that we still don't have an "Ace,", and Arroyo wouldn't be that guy. However, it certainly is better than a whole group of #4 and #5's and AAAA guys. With Arroyo, the Twins rotation would be competent at least, and a second place finish in the division is not out of the question....