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#1 crapforks

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 04:13 PM

Continuing in the theme of creating a thread about every available player mentioned on mlbtr, I was thinking about Brett Gardner. The Twins probably don't have what the Yanks want in trade much, but he might be a good fit here. If they didn't have such a full outfield, they seem like they might have been interested in buying low on Willingham. If the Twins do find a taker for Willingham, Doumit, or one of the Chrises (who obviously have no real value) it would be fun to bring Gardner into the fold.
I don't necessarily believe a deal will be done, but I shudder to think about all the fly balls dropping in for hits with the current outfield arrangement. Willingham and/or Doumit should be moved for next to nothing, IMO, and having Gardner alongside Presley (or even Hicks) would be a huge defensive upgrade. I know it seems very piranha-esque, but it's not like Willingham, Doumit, Parmelee, or Collabello have defined the offense. Let Arcia be the least capable out there, at least he's young enough to dream on.
If the outfield defense is improved, can the team be respectable offensively with only Mauer, Dozier, Arcia and to a lesser extent Plouffe and maybe Pinto as XBH threats?

#2 Thrylos

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 05:17 PM

Not sure that Gardner brings anything to the table that Alex Presley does not. Gardner has a career 97 OPS+ (2000+ PAs), Pressley 98 (850 or so PAs). Presley is 2 years younger. Gardner could steal a base once upon at time, but I don't think that he is much better than Presley at this department right now.
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#3 kab21

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 07:20 PM

Not sure that Gardner brings anything to the table that Alex Presley does not. Gardner has a career 97 OPS+ (2000+ PAs), Pressley 98 (850 or so PAs). Presley is 2 years younger. Gardner could steal a base once upon at time, but I don't think that he is much better than Presley at this department right now.


OPS+ is a poor one number analysis. Presley has a .300 career OBP while Gardner has a .350 OBP with K and BB rates that suggest long term success. Gardner is a far better defender and has disruptive speed on the bases. the result is that Presley is a solid 4th OF'er while Gardner is incredibly valuable. It really isn't even close.

I would instantly trade for Gardner but the Twins don't have the pieces. The only thing that could interest the Yankees is Dozier because they need 2B/3B and SP. But Dozier currently isn't nearly as valuable as Gardner although if he repeats last season it would be closer.

#4 Marta Shearing

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 07:32 PM

Alex Presley is a 4th outfielder / AAA caliber player. I'd be very happy with an Arcia / Gardner / Hicks outfield.

#5 DocBauer

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 07:38 PM

Not sure that Gardner brings anything to the table that Alex Presley does not. Gardner has a career 97 OPS+ (2000+ PAs), Pressley 98 (850 or so PAs). Presley is 2 years younger. Gardner could steal a base once upon at time, but I don't think that he is much better than Presley at this department right now.


Going to agree here, though in the short term, yes, I think Gardner would be a great fit. Hopefully Buxton will truly be on a fast track to the show. But even without that possibility, I see the Twins OF taking on a pleasing shape next year. At least potentially.

I see Presley in LF sharing time with a healthy Mastro, though I think a piece might still be added. I heard Raja Davis being mentioned in another thread and see that as a solid possibility. Some combination there gives us range and defense, decent production at the top of the lineup, with the young, talented, improving, and strong-armed Arcia in RF.

As I have stated in a few other posts, Hicks is the key. While rushed last year, and obviously disappointing, the talent is still there. And we did see flashes, and improvement before injury. Even if you allow for Hicks to be learning on the job, his defense in CF, his potential power and speed on the bases would all be helpful, even if he hit only .230-.250.
With 500 AB you might even see 30+ doubles, a few triples, and possible 20/20 potential just on talent alone.

Willingham needs to be a DH primarily, forcing Doumit out.

One more, I hope we can find a way to hold on to Parmalee somehow. I'm not yet ready to give up on him just yet. He and Plouffe might be good DH, OF and INF reserves a year from now if Sano makes his move.

#6 Danchat

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 07:43 PM

I like Gardner a lot, but I don't think he'd be a big upgrade on Presley. If it was substantial I would work a trade, but Gardner is already 30.
Taking a quick look at Baseball Refrence, here's a comparison chart.
(Category): (Who's better)
AVG: Gardner slightly
OBP: Gardner by a lot
HRs: Presley hits twice as many
SLG: Presley
OPS: Gardner
OPS+: As Thrylos said, Presley 98 to 97.
WAR: I can't say how relevant this is, but per season Gardner leads 3.22 to .25. BTW Presely had a negative WAR with the Twins in 2013.
Fld Prct: Gardner .991 to .986.
Range Factor per Game: Gardner 2.11 to 1.71
And in base stealing, Gardner still looks capable with 24 at age 29 last year. Presley has been caught stealing 15 times and only got 20 bases. And that's before he was 28.

Gardner is clearly better, but there's no reason to upgrade, especially depending on how valuable the Yankees might think he is.

Edited by Danchat, 07 December 2013 - 07:49 PM.


#7 Trevor0333

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 08:34 PM

I would rather just sign Rajai Davis than give up a prospect for Gardner...

#8 Craig in MN

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 08:37 PM

I like Gardner, and he'd be an upgrade and a nice leadoff hitter, but he's a just one year upgrade. He's a free agent in 2015. Trading anything of value for one year for Brett Gardner, just to help them bet closer to average in 2014, is missing the point. If they want to sign a free agent for CF for a year, I'm fine with that, because it's just money and they can always slide a CF to the corner...but I'm not fine with giving up anything to trade for one.

#9 crapforks

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 08:38 PM

I think that Gardner is what the Presley's and Mastro's of the world aspire to become. The argument that is being made about Gardner not being a huge upgrade over Presley could have been made by Yankees fans about Ellsbury over Gardner to some extent. Unless the Yankees are selling Gardner for peanuts the Twins aren't in on him anyways, its just fun to dream of an outfield with some ability to cover ground. TF has a lot of ground!

#10 Shane Wahl

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 12:01 AM

I don't really want to get involved in such a trade, but Gardner is, without a doubt, significantly better than Alex Presley. They aren't really that close. Gardner has averaged about 3.2 WAR in 6 seasons.

#11 Marta Shearing

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 05:30 AM

Dozier for Gardner! I know its a pipe dream, but I'd do it in an instant.

#12 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 08:02 AM

Dozier for Gardner! I know its a pipe dream, but I'd do it in an instant.


So would the Yankees. Dozier is 4 years younger with 5 years of team control. As players I would say they are roughly equal but Dozier could still get quite a bit better. It would not be surprising if he had 20 bombs and improved his OBP.

#13 Shane Wahl

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 08:10 AM

A Gardner-Buxton-Hicks OF is pretty enticing, but no.

#14 Thrylos

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 08:56 AM

They aren't really that close. Gardner has averaged about 3.2 WAR in 6 seasons.


Cannot use cumulative measurements to compare 2 players when one has 3x the PAs in a given time.
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#15 Brandon

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 09:48 AM

The OF is going to be Willingham, Pressley, Arcia with Mastroianni on the bench unless Hicks earns the CF job then it will come down to who is hitting better Pressley or Doumit. If Pressley is better then Willingham can DH and Pressley slides to LF with Hick taking over CF till Buxton is ready then it will be a competition between Pressley and Hicks for LF. I don't really see where we need to upgrade here. We have adequate across the board with potential improvements coming up.

The variable is if the Twins make a move such as signing Michael Young or someone else who can hit and play multiple positions.

#16 Trevor0333

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 10:09 AM

At the winter meetings the cash strapped Phillies are supposedly open to trading Dominic Brown if they can get some starting pitching. They are also looking to move Papelbons salary 2/26 left.

The Twins need offense & Buxton will be ready soon. They still have payroll available.

Offer up Aaron Hicks, Trevor May, Kevin Corriea, & Jared Burton for Jonathon Papelbon & Dominic Brown.

Buxton will be ready just as soon as Hicks will be. Your future OF is now Brown/Buxton/Arcia with Rosario eventually unseating Arcia into more of a DH role.

Mays star has dulled some but is still a talent. He goes back to the NL as a 2015 # 5 for Philly with Corriea as the place holder. Hicks take Browns place in the OF. Burton can close & helps off set Papelbons salary. Who can hopefully rebound his value in a setup role & the Twins can have a 1 year rental trade chip in 2015.

The Twins would only take on $5 in payroll & with Willingham off the books next year it would be easier to absorb Papelbon if they couldn't move him.

That solves the power bat lineup problem very cheaply salary wise. There should still be enough payroll left to add Garza at 15 mill fairly easily to replace Corriea. If you need to do a salary dump & give away Duensing & Doumit that wouldn't be impossible.

Garza/Nolasco/Hughes/Deduno/Meyer (Gardy will get his way!)

Dozier, Mauer, Brown, Willingham, Arcia, Plouffe, Presley, Pinto, Florimon.

Let's play!

Edited by Trevor0333, 08 December 2013 - 10:14 AM.


#17 Marta Shearing

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 10:17 AM

So would the Yankees. Dozier is 4 years younger with 5 years of team control. As players I would say they are roughly equal but Dozier could still get quite a bit better. It would not be surprising if he had 20 bombs and improved his OBP.

I would be stunned if the yankees would do that trade. I dont think dozier is their type of player.

#18 kab21

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 10:25 AM

Cannot use cumulative measurements to compare 2 players when one has 3x the PAs in a given time.


okay.

Presley averages 1 WAR every 162 games. Gardner averages 4.5 WAR every 162 games. In my book this isn't even close.

#19 Marta Shearing

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 10:26 AM

Regardless of the 50 game suspension, trading dozier for gardner makes sense because it opens the door for rosario. Plus, with willingham gone in a year, Arcia moving to DH, and the question marks with hicks, I think gardner makes perfect sense.

2015
DH Arcia
LF Gardner
CF Buxton
RF Hicks

Lets roll

Edited by Marta Shearing, 08 December 2013 - 10:29 AM.


#20 Marta Shearing

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 10:32 AM

Then again, move Rosario back to the outfield and keep dozier. Rosario will probably be a better hitter than gardner anyway.

#21 johnnydakota

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 10:42 AM

Trading for left handed hitting Domonic Brown , may not be the best idea ,if we are looking to upgrade the defense in the outfield, Brown and Willingham posted the same D-War last year , and we know how Target field treats Left handed power hitters

#22 kab21

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 11:11 AM

Gardner doesn't really matter though. I don't see the Yankees doing that trade and he is supposedly a FA next season. He's a good player and immensely more valuable than Presley but not a good target.

Brown would be a fine target but the Twins would actually have to give up something good rather than the collection of unwanted parts proposed.

I like Corey Hart as a veteran OF'er to replace Willy's bat in the middle of the lineup. Playing time is a little crowded until someone gets injured or traded but Willy and Doumit are very unlikely to be resigned if they even make it past the trade deadline. This could leave Hart, Buxton, Hicks and Arcia as the opening day 2015 lineup (including DH). That might block someone but only if everyone of those rookies are successes (odds against).

#23 benchwarmerjim

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 11:55 AM

I know this time of the baseball year is a lot of wild speculation and dream scenarios, but why would the Yankees trade Gardner for Plouffe when the Yankees have about 10 teams calling them up about Gardner?

#24 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 12:44 PM

Gardner doesn't really matter though. I don't see the Yankees doing that trade and he is supposedly a FA next season. He's a good player and immensely more valuable than Presley but not a good target.

I like Corey Hart as a veteran OF'er to replace Willy's bat in the middle of the lineup. Playing time is a little crowded until someone gets injured or traded but Willy and Doumit are very unlikely to be resigned if they even make it past the trade deadline. This could leave Hart, Buxton, Hicks and Arcia as the opening day 2015 lineup (including DH). That might block someone but only if everyone of those rookies are successes (odds against).


I was thinking Hart too but is he still mobile enough for the OF? If so, he could also back-up Mauer at first and DH if we move Willingham.

#25 DJSim22

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 01:01 PM

Gardner doesn't really matter though. I don't see the Yankees doing that trade and he is supposedly a FA next season. He's a good player and immensely more valuable than Presley but not a good target. Brown would be a fine target but the Twins would actually have to give up something good rather than the collection of unwanted parts proposed. I like Corey Hart as a veteran OF'er to replace Willy's bat in the middle of the lineup. Playing time is a little crowded until someone gets injured or traded but Willy and Doumit are very unlikely to be resigned if they even make it past the trade deadline. This could leave Hart, Buxton, Hicks and Arcia as the opening day 2015 lineup (including DH). That might block someone but only if everyone of those rookies are successes (odds against).

Crowded just means we actually have bats on the bench for once. Gardy likes to give his bench more at bats than most, so I won;t worry one bit about a crowded outfield.

#26 kab21

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Posted 09 December 2013 - 09:05 AM

I was thinking Hart too but is he still mobile enough for the OF? If so, he could also back-up Mauer at first and DH if we move Willingham.


I think eventually he would be a DH after Willy is gone but I think it's important for a team to have a couple solid veteran hitters on a team filled with youngsters.

#27 TheLeviathan

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Posted 09 December 2013 - 09:33 AM

Here's a crazy idea.....if the cost was Rosario and Berrios (just a hypothetical, no reasoning other than to put two names out there) and the Dodgers agreed to pony up 50M.....

Would you take a gamble on Kemp?

Imagine an outfield with Kemp, Buxton, and Hicks with Arcia mercifully moved to DH?

#28 iTwins

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Posted 09 December 2013 - 09:38 AM

A Gardner-Buxton-Hicks OF is pretty enticing, but no.


This. Think of the defense!

Alas, I don't think the Twins have the pieces to get Gardner...

#29 jokin

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Posted 09 December 2013 - 09:47 AM

Here's a crazy idea.....if the cost was Rosario and Berrios (just a hypothetical, no reasoning other than to put two names out there) and the Dodgers agreed to pony up 50M.....

Would you take a gamble on Kemp?

Imagine an outfield with Kemp, Buxton, and Hicks with Arcia mercifully moved to DH?


It is very intriguing- that potential OF could be incredible, but it is quite the gamble. The ankle injury he sustained in 2013 was quite serious, with radical surgery and scary microfracture issues ( the last I read, Kemp wasn't going to ready for Spring Training), along with his torn labrum problem that carried over to his sub-standard 2013 performance from 2012. As Kemp is signed through 2019, even with $50M from the Dodgers thrown in, you're still talking about $78M due over the life of the contract- that's basically like having a Justin Morneau situation on your hands for the remainder of the decade.

Edited by jokin, 09 December 2013 - 09:50 AM.


#30 kab21

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Posted 09 December 2013 - 10:08 AM

I wouldn't touch Kemp at any price right now. Certainly not including good prospects for him.

Labrum surgery has screwed up guys for years or they never returned to the same level. And microfracture surgery has an even worse track record. I hope he's not another Sizemore but I wouldn't want his contract on the Twins even if it was subsidized by 50M.