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#31 kab21

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 10:19 PM

When comparing Price to Meyer over the next six years, you can't just use performance. Price will make about $30 million in the next two years and another $90-100 million in the following four, if signed to an extension. Meyer will make the league minimum for three years, followed by three arbitration years. There's quite a bit of surplus value there, if Meyer is anywhere close to his projection.

As far as the trade itself, the Twins are too low on the win curve for it to make sense. We need some of those prospects to fill out the roster, before we go for this type of move.

Please go back and read Thrylos's statement. He simply said that he thought Meyer would outperform Price. That is way too optimistic of Meyer. I really like Meyer (really, really like him) but he's not even a top 10 pitching prospect right now. People need to stop projecting him as a can't miss ace. Can't miss aces frequently miss also.

The other thing is that real aces simply don't hit FA that often. You can spend tons of money on several Garza, Bailey, Ervin Santana, C.J. Wilson or Nolasco types but they aren't true aces. Every once in awhile a Greinke comes along and he is really good but he also signed for huge money.

#32 JP3700

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Posted 07 December 2013 - 11:12 PM

Please go back and read Thrylos's statement. He simply said that he thought Meyer would outperform Price. That is way too optimistic of Meyer. I really like Meyer (really, really like him) but he's not even a top 10 pitching prospect right now. People need to stop projecting him as a can't miss ace. Can't miss aces frequently miss also.

The other thing is that real aces simply don't hit FA that often. You can spend tons of money on several Garza, Bailey, Ervin Santana, C.J. Wilson or Nolasco types but they aren't true aces. Every once in awhile a Greinke comes along and he is really good but he also signed for huge money.


I agree that his statement was way too optimistic. However, I do think Meyer is a good bet to provide more actual value than Price, over the next six years.

#33 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 03:51 AM

I think there are very few GMs in baseball that, right now, wouldn't prefer Meyer over Price for the next 6-7 years at their relative prices. Even if Price averages out to be a #1 and Meyer averages out to be a strong #3, the value is skewed heavily towards Alex (15-25M difference!)

The exceptions would be the teams that spend money like water due to sick revenue sources that the Twins just don't have and can thus afford the better pitcher at a lower value.

#34 TheLeviathan

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 09:21 AM

I agree that his statement was way too optimistic. However, I do think Meyer is a good bet to provide more actual value than Price, over the next six years.


A "good bet"? Meyer hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors yet and Price is a Cy Young winner. No, that isn't a good bet no matter what price tag Price comes with.

That doesn't mean you go out and make that deal, but cmon.

#35 TheLeviathan

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 09:23 AM

I think there are very few GMs in baseball that, right now, wouldn't prefer Meyer over Price for the next 6-7 years at their relative prices. Even if Price averages out to be a #1 and Meyer averages out to be a strong #3, the value is skewed heavily towards Alex (15-25M difference!)

The exceptions would be the teams that spend money like water due to sick revenue sources that the Twins just don't have and can thus afford the better pitcher at a lower value.


I think every sane GM on the planet with the ability to pay the price would gladly pay that difference to have an ace over a hopeful.

The price tag, by its very nature, represents the value of a talented performer like Price. This conversation has descended into some really bizarre notions of value.

#36 kab21

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 10:17 AM

I hope Meyer earning 500K is a better value than nearly every elite pitcher. If he isn't then he is a massive failure. But at some point the money has to be spent. It's much better to have spent that 20+M on one elite player than 2 Nolasco's.

Of course I don't think Tampa would accept a trade for Meyer/Rosario and there is no chance that the Twins would propose something like this.

#37 TheLeviathan

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 11:04 AM

I hope Meyer earning 500K is a better value than nearly every elite pitcher. If he isn't then he is a massive failure. But at some point the money has to be spent. It's much better to have spent that 20+M on one elite player than 2 Nolasco's.

Of course I don't think Tampa would accept a trade for Meyer/Rosario and there is no chance that the Twins would propose something like this.


Right, but as you pointed out - Meyer isn't a super elite SP prospect and he's never thrown a pitch in the majors. He's still got a significant chance of busting. So to suggest Meyer might be as "valuable" is putting the cart way before the horse.

Afterall, if that sort of valuation was true, teams would flip their aces in a 1 for 1 deal for prospects all the time.

#38 JP3700

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 02:31 PM

A "good bet"? Meyer hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors yet and Price is a Cy Young winner. No, that isn't a good bet no matter what price tag Price comes with.

That doesn't mean you go out and make that deal, but cmon.


Price has been worth between +4 to +4.5 wins over the last three years. Depending on if you use RA9 or FIP. Let's just assume he's going to be worth +4.5 WAR over the next two years to make it easy. At $6 million a win, he's going to be worth $54M in those two years. He's going to cost about $30M over that two year span. That's a healthy $24M surplus.

However, then you consider the next four years. Considering Greinke got an AAV of 24.5M, Price's extension has to start at $25M. To make it easy, let's just say his AAV is $25M. Within those four years, he has to continue pitching at the same level, just for him to be worth it. Then you take into account regression and injury. It's a good bet that he would net a negative value over those four years.

For argument's sake though, let's just say he's worth every penny over those four years. So, over the six years, Price has been worth +$24M in surplus value. When you consider what Meyer will make over those six years, that's why Meyer is a good bet to be worth more than +$24M over that same time frame.

A good bet doesn't mean it's 100%, locked in. It means I'd put the odds over 50% that it would happen. Meyer isn't a kid in rookie ball. He's shown to be dominant in AA, and the AFL. Obviously there is no guarantee. But, there is no guarantee with Price, or any other player. Price had a triceps injury, and a drop in velocity in 2013.

I understand that the value is relative though. Price's more than likely 4.5 WAR has much more value than Meyer's range of value to a contending team. But, to the Twins, Meyer makes more sense. I think you'd agree by your final statement.

All this being said, I still would trade Meyer for Price one for one. Only because I'd flip Price for more, to a contending team. It's all about value to me.

#39 twinsfan34

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 02:46 PM

Price was a Cy Young winner...but will he ever approach that again? To me, when you say 'trading for a CY winner' it would have to mean he's likely to win another. Is he?

On Meyer...
I am becoming more and more of a believer for Meyer after watching much of the AFL. The AFL All-Star game, 2 sneak peak games by MLB Network, and scouts' takes. The thing with Meyer, the only thing stopping him from dominating, seems to be himself. He has that kind of stuff. 96-100 MPH fastball into the 7th inning? Big sweeping 88-90 MPH slider. A change/curve that's 'average'...if he gets either to a 'above average' to 'plus'...he's looking at 240 K's and ERAs under 3.30. I think his floor is #3/#4 starter. He's got first division starter (Ace) ceiling.

Price...may or may not be losing velocity...he was injured last year - so not sure if it'll come back or not, but his pitches were 2-4 MPH lower last year vs 2012 and previous.
http://www.fangraphs...tion=P&pitch=FA

I'm not sure he would go 'bad' that quick though. I saw him pitch two games for the Rays last year where he was barely hitting 91MPH (instead of 96) on his fastball. He still had great command...had some help on a few pitches (some framing, some umpire favor).

But the salary...If Cano can get 10 yr 243 mil...what does Price want/get?

Would seem the Twins could afford 2 other middle-to-upper tier FA's at whatever price Price wants and Meyer.

If we were a team like the Orioles...or a fringe team, it might be something to be seriously considered.

On Buxton...Sano....
I just don't see many 19 year old's doing what they each did in A/A+ Ball respectively, who didn't go on to be Stars. Price is an Ace...so he's "first division starter"...a Star...top 10/15 at this position. That's nothing to take lightly. With Davis, is this Barry Zito part two though? What was Zito's ailment when the A's traded him? Only salary considerations? He was 28...had a Cy Young. He didn't have a winning season until he was 34. That's 6 years later. But he was better in his last year (4.4 WAR, 116 ERA+) than Price (2.8 WAR, 114 ERA+).

The value the Rays will want...
Wil Myers was the #4 prospect in the game...Montgomery was #31 (2012)...Odorizzo was #43...the Rays got that (3 top 50 Prospects) for Shields and a 5th/6th starter (Davis).. So they're likely coming off a high expectation, even though they absolutely fleeced the Royals. Buxton is better than Myers. Sano is better than Myers. Price is better than Shields.

If I didn't think Buxton or Sano were going to be monsters...I'd sell on the high prospect rating. But I do think they'll be monsters.

Did anyone have any doubt Joe Mauer was going to be a HOF level player? Consensus #1 overall prospect according to every publication (mid 2013 or later rated). Buxton is that guy. And then, Sano, well, I haven't seen Sano ranked lower than #6. (Baseball America, Prospectus, Keith Law, MLB.com, John Sickels, Prospect Digest, etc).

Anyone feel Price will be HOF level any more than two seasons (+5 WAR, e.g. his 2010 and 2012) going forward, much less the rest of his career (50 WAR, he's at 18.6 right now), from here on out?

Edited by twinsfan34, 08 December 2013 - 02:59 PM.


#40 TheLeviathan

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 02:52 PM

A good bet doesn't mean it's 100%, locked in. It means I'd put the odds over 50% that it would happen.


Well there is the problem. If just over 50% is a "good" bet in your eyes, we have different ideas of what constitutes a "good bet".

All this being said, I still would trade Meyer for Price one for one. Only because I'd flip Price for more, to a contending team. It's all about value to me.


Of course you would. And if Price were a Twin and the Rays came at us with only Alex Meyer - you'd scoff (rightly) at the idea. And the reason is because Price is far more valuable because he's established he can be a dominant starter in the majors. Meyer has only showed promise that he might.

Right now it doesn't make sense to trade for Price because it won't cost only Meyer and the Twins are stingy about contract extensions. The question isn't "who is more valuable?" (In a one to one comparison, it's Price and it's laughable to suggest otherwise), it's "why now?" And the answer is that there is no good reason to do it now - not with those factors listed above. So you wait and hope Meyer becomes your own version of Price.

And, if the gods be good to us Twins fans and it happens, you never seriously consider the idea that a guy who hasn't pitched over AA yet could be more valuable than your Cy Young winner.

Edited by TheLeviathan, 08 December 2013 - 02:55 PM.


#41 twinsfan34

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 03:01 PM

And, if the gods be good to us Twins fans and it happens, you never seriously consider the idea that a guy who hasn't pitched over AA yet could be more valuable than your Cy Young winner.


I think it's important to note that AA...in the Eastern league is looked on pretty favorably even to International League AAA.

AAA isn't even a 'regular' stop for most guys who excel as rookies.

#42 TheLeviathan

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 03:04 PM

I think it's important to note that AA...in the Eastern league is looked on pretty favorably even to International League AAA.

AAA isn't even a 'regular' stop for most guys who excel as rookies.


Is it looked on as favorably as, say, winning a Cy Young in the major leagues? You overlooked my point completely.

#43 twinsfan34

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 03:10 PM

Is it looked on as favorably as, say, winning a Cy Young in the major leagues? You overlooked my point completely.


I would not say that. I said nothing to diminish Price's value. Only that AA (inference to Myers) should be considered as a logical next step and AAA not necessarily necessary to get to MLB.

#44 twinsfan34

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 03:12 PM

Alex Fernandez was in Class A in 2012. Arguably could have won the NL CY Young his rookie year had he finished those last 3 starts and Kershaw on his own planet.

#45 twinsfan34

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 03:13 PM

Is it looked on as favorably as, say, winning a Cy Young in the major leagues? You overlooked my point completely.


Do you think Price will win a Cy Young going forward?

I do like Price. A lot.

#46 TheLeviathan

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 03:17 PM

Do you think Price will win a Cy Young going forward?

I do like Price. A lot.


Not sure it matters, but I do think he will continue to be an ace for a long time.

#47 twinsfan34

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 03:33 PM

Not sure it matters, but I do think he will continue to be an ace for a long time.


I guess I don't see what Awards a guy won in the past as relevant to 2014 and beyond. As I cited with Barry Zito...same age, better last season, better career to that point, but yet, he only had 1 season over .500 after his age 28 season. 6 years later at age 34. But Zito had a more dominating Cy Young year than Price.

If I'm a HOF committee, Cy Young's matter. If I'm a GM of a MLB team, I care what he's going to do for my team going forward.

If I'm going to give a guy $30M a season he better get me some 5 WAR seasons. Otherwise I'm going to pass.

I don't weight $M per WAR like some as I would take the $M per WAR based on teams without a full standard deviation from the average salaries. Can't really weigh the Yankees and Dodgers on the same scale per $M. In my opinion.

So in terms of salary. It is what it is. If I'm the Yankees and I have Sano, Meyers...or the Red Sox or you name the teams who spend $150M a year (or were spending $125M a year before the new TV deal) and I say, yes. Absolutely. Meyers, Rosario, Berrios, Thorpe. Or you can have Sano and Berrios or Thorpe.

$30M is about 1/6th of their salary, not a big deal. For a team like the Twins, it's double that.

#48 TheLeviathan

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 03:38 PM

I guess I don't see what Awards a guy won in the past as relevant....


Because they are an example of how good the guy is. Price is a legit ace. Take any measure you want, he's been a legit major league ace.

Meyer has not. He might be, but he hasn't been yet.

#49 JP3700

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 04:22 PM

Leviathan, I think we're on the same page overall. We just have different arguments.

Price is by far a more valuable commodity, due to being a proven front line starter. 4+ win pitchers don't grow on trees. I've agreed with you and Kab of that being true. He's a much better bet to perform at a higher level than Meyer over the next six years.

What I was stating is their values of cost vs. performance over the next six years, and the value in terms of dollars. Meyer is a better bet to provide more surplus value than Price during that six year window.

As for the "good bet" thing. I've played poker for a living for years, so perhaps my thoughts on good bets is a little skewed. You give me odds, I'm taking it :)

#50 TheLeviathan

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 04:28 PM

As for the "good bet" thing. I've played poker for a living for years, so perhaps my thoughts on good bets is a little skewed. You give me odds, I'm taking it :)


All depends on your favorite form of gambling I suppose. :)

As for your surplus value point, I'm not sure it's really important compared to actual value to the baseball team. Especially not in a situation like the Twins have where they can afford not to worry about money for the forseeable future.

#51 JP3700

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 05:51 PM

As for your surplus value point, I'm not sure it's really important compared to actual value to the baseball team. Especially not in a situation like the Twins have where they can afford not to worry about money for the forseeable future.


Ah, I disagree with you there. The Twins aren't the Dodgers or the Yankees. Surplus value is more important to a team like the Twins. You need to be a 40 WAR team to just be in contention for the playoffs. If there isn't any surplus value, your team will be under 20 WAR with a $100M budget.

The Twins need to find multiple Brian Doziers. Not necessarily his ability, but league average to above average players making little money. At that point, David Price and his contract makes sense to have.

The fact that you'd also be trading players that would be providing some of that needed surplus value, also makes no sense. I'm okay with jumping the gun. By assuming Buxton, Sano and Meyer will help the team and making a bold move. But losing their value, to gain Price's defeats the purpose.

That's why the Royals trade for Shields was incredibly stupid. Not just because it was an overpay. They traded Myers, a major league ready contributor. They took away 2.5 wins making the league minimum for 4.5 wins making $12M.

#52 TheLeviathan

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 06:10 PM

The fact that you'd also be trading players that would be providing some of that needed surplus value, also makes no sense. I'm okay with jumping the gun. By assuming Buxton, Sano and Meyer will help the team and making a bold move. But losing their value, to gain Price's defeats the purpose.


This much I agree with. If and when we go for an ace it needs to better align with Sano and Buxton, but I would never hesitate to land a top flight talent because of a possible surplus value. As I said earlier, that concept of value isn't the relevant question.

#53 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 December 2013 - 09:51 PM

Ah, I disagree with you there. The Twins aren't the Dodgers or the Yankees. Surplus value is more important to a team like the Twins. You need to be a 40 WAR team to just be in contention for the playoffs. If there isn't any surplus value, your team will be under 20 WAR with a $100M budget.

The Twins need to find multiple Brian Doziers. Not necessarily his ability, but league average to above average players making little money. At that point, David Price and his contract makes sense to have.

The fact that you'd also be trading players that would be providing some of that needed surplus value, also makes no sense. I'm okay with jumping the gun. By assuming Buxton, Sano and Meyer will help the team and making a bold move. But losing their value, to gain Price's defeats the purpose.

That's why the Royals trade for Shields was incredibly stupid. Not just because it was an overpay. They traded Myers, a major league ready contributor. They took away 2.5 wins making the league minimum for 4.5 wins making $12M.


This might be my favorite post in the history of Twins Daily. Bloody good job.

#54 halfchest

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Posted 09 December 2013 - 09:01 AM

It's been said on this thread but I just want to agree . . . it's just not the right time for this move. Now in two years if Meyer's and Gibson develop into top or upper mid rotation arms and some of the offensive pieces fall into place for us it might make sense to make a similar move. Send Kohl Stewart and Berrios away for a current Ace. Who that might be? I have no idea but someone will be available, seems every year there is at least one guy nearing the end of his contract. Right now I'd be more content to try buy low on a guy like Hellickson that is under control for more years or could sign a more affordable extension and he'll be around when our top prospects start coming up.

#55 kab21

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Posted 09 December 2013 - 09:52 AM

This might be my favorite post in the history of Twins Daily. Bloody good job.


Except it is inaccurate. The Twins have an entire army of Brian Doziers coming up from the minors. It's likely that half of the starting lineup is pre arb or in their cheap arb years for the foreseeable future. The same goes for the bullpen. It's almost like the situation where JP suggested that Price makes sense.

Additionally the Twins aren't capped at 100M. They have already exceeded that and that was before a bunch of new money flowed into the game.

The other consideration is how do you go about building a championship team. One of the key components to a championship contender is having 1 (or even 2) aces. There are basically 2 ways to acquire an ace. One is to develop them and just cross your fingers hoping that they turn out and the other to trade for or sign a big name FA. Right now I'm glad the Twins have at least found some great minor league arms with that type of potential but I'm more the type that likes an almost sure thing like Price. Meyer looks great but I have thought that about so many pitching prospects (I'm a fanatical minors follower) And many of those busted or took 2-4 years to figure it out.

Here was an out of the box idea I threw out years ago (2010 offseason) on the BYTO board. there of course was 0% chance of the front office pursuing it. Halladay was on the block with one year left and the Twins had what looked like a strong team. I proposed a Hicks/Gibson (would have needed to be a PTBNL) for Halladay trade. Halladay was of course traded that offseason to the Phillies and signed an extension. He also was ridiculously valuable the first two years (14 WAR combined) before his shoulder was wrecked. Overwhelming the board was against it because Gibson and Hicks were so valuable as cost controlled prospects. 4 years later they haven't done anything yet.

Some prospects hit and some bust but this board's cup is violently spilling over with prospect optimism right now. Being unwilling to trade a good but not elite pitching prospect for one of the top pitchers in the game is just silly provided that the Twins can afford a mega extension (they can easily) and Price is willing to sign that extension.

#56 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 09 December 2013 - 10:02 AM

Except it is inaccurate. The Twins have an entire army of Brian Doziers coming up from the minors. It's likely that half of the starting lineup is pre arb or in their cheap arb years for the foreseeable future. The same goes for the bullpen. It's almost like the situation where JP suggested that Price makes sense.

Additionally the Twins aren't capped at 100M. They have already exceeded that and that was before a bunch of new money flowed into the game.

The other consideration is how do you go about building a championship team. One of the key components to a championship contender is having 1 (or even 2) aces. There are basically 2 ways to acquire an ace. One is to develop them and just cross your fingers hoping that they turn out and the other to trade for or sign a big name FA. Right now I'm glad the Twins have at least found some great minor league arms with that type of potential but I'm more the type that likes an almost sure thing like Price. Meyer looks great but I have thought that about so many pitching prospects (I'm a fanatical minors follower) And many of those busted or took 2-4 years to figure it out.

Here was an out of the box idea I threw out years ago (2010 offseason) on the BYTO board. there of course was 0% chance of the front office pursuing it. Halladay was on the block with one year left and the Twins had what looked like a strong team. I proposed a Hicks/Gibson (would have needed to be a PTBNL) for Halladay trade. Halladay was of course traded that offseason to the Phillies and signed an extension. He also was ridiculously valuable the first two years (14 WAR combined) before his shoulder was wrecked. Overwhelming the board was against it because Gibson and Hicks were so valuable as cost controlled prospects. 4 years later they haven't done anything yet.

Some prospects hit and some bust but this board's cup is violently spilling over with prospect optimism right now. Being unwilling to trade a good but not elite pitching prospect for one of the top pitchers in the game is just silly provided that the Twins can afford a mega extension (they can easily) and Price is willing to sign that extension.


I don't disagree that the Twins haven't been as aggressive as they should during their better seasons.

What I liked about the post is the implication that subtracting cheap "wins" for a few additional expensive "wins" doesn't make much sense when your team is probably going to struggle to cross the 80 win threshold.

If you're a 90 win team looking to shoot for a 95 win season, these moves make more sense. When you're a 66 win team looking to cross into the realm of respectability, it makes far less sense to trade cheap seasons and wins for a couple of essentially pointless expensive wins in the short-term.

If we knew which prospects would provide cheap wins and which would flounder, then this wouldn't be a conversation... On the other hand, no GM would trade for those floundering prospects, either. But when your team needs as many cheap wins as possible just to get to the .500 mark, you want all those prospects, knowing some will fail while others will succeed.

#57 TheLeviathan

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Posted 09 December 2013 - 10:04 AM

Quick...someone go back a few years and tell the 2nd place 2007 Tigers how stupid they're about to be by giving up all that "surplus value" for Miguel Cabrera!!!!!!!

Kab's right, our excitement about our farm is totally distorting our ability to think about prospect value in a rational manner.

Brock - you're right, but your reasoning is about timing. Not about the idea of surplus value and using that concept to over-inflate a prospect's value.

Edited by TheLeviathan, 09 December 2013 - 10:06 AM.


#58 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 09 December 2013 - 10:06 AM

Quick...someone go back a few years and tell the 2nd place 2007 Tigers how stupid they're about to be by giving up all that "surplus value" for Miguel Cabrera!!!!!!!


The bolded is the difference between those 2007 Tigers and the 2013 Twins.

It also doesn't hurt that Ilitch pulled the trigger and unexpectedly gave Dombrowski a blank check for half a decade. That changes everything about how the Tigers needed to operate in the past 5-6 years.

#59 TheLeviathan

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Posted 09 December 2013 - 10:08 AM

The bolded is the difference between those 2007 Tigers and the 2013 Twins.

It also doesn't hurt that Illitch pulled the trigger and unexpectedly gave Dombrowski a blank check for half a decade. That changes everything about how the Tigers needed to operate in the past 5-6 years.


I'm not arguing the Twins should acquire Price. I think next year is probably the right time for that big move. Maybe two years, we'll see how Sano comes along.

But you're using specific examples of timing (a valid point) whereas the issue with that post is it is a general statement that overinflates prospect value. If the Tigers had worried about surplus value over timing, they'd have never made that deal.

#60 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 09 December 2013 - 10:11 AM

I'm not arguing the Twins should acquire Price. I think next year is probably the right time for that big move. Maybe two years, we'll see how Sano comes along.

But you're using specific examples of timing (a valid point) whereas the issue with that post is it is a general statement that overinflates prospect value. If the Tigers had worried about surplus value over timing, they'd have never made that deal.


Fair enough. I don't think we're really disagreeing here. My only sticking point is timing.

If the 2014 Twins win 85 games, then it's time to start exploring trade options and prospect trades. At 85 wins, they'll have several cheap players contributing on the roster, making some of those prospects expendable.